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The Unintelligible Investor

 
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  • New Jersey Resources: Superstorm Creates A Superb Opportunity [View article]
    I don't doubt it. I plan on being a long-time owner as well.
    Feb 12 07:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Canadian Oil Sands: Analyzing And Valuing The Oil Sands Operator - Part II [View article]
    great job
    Jan 15 08:54 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Lots Of Real Estate Value At Assisted Living Concepts [View article]
    Great analysis. Looks like a good opportunity.

    Question: You say "most" of their locations are rural. How much is "most"? Just how "rural" are they? The more rural the facility the lower the price it could fetch presumably. Can we be sure that the facilities owned by ALC are of as high quality in terms of location and other factors as the those other purchases you've referenced?
    Jan 4 11:07 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Canadian Banks And The Pre-Emptive Bailout [View article]
    Not all the banks provide that kind of geographic detail. I did attempt to provide info on the banks that were that granular.

    I agree that Alberta is in the best shape now but the bloom may be off the wild rose and their economy has the further to to fall.
    Dec 18 11:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Canadian Banks And The Pre-Emptive Bailout [View article]
    Yup I agree ... BMO is in pretty good shape going forward.
    Dec 5 08:56 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Canadian Housing: It Actually Is Different This Time [View article]
    P.S. Many baby boomers will not be extracting equity from their homes to retire. They will simply not retire.
    Nov 9 10:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Canadian Housing: It Actually Is Different This Time [View article]
    All fair points. Again, I am not arguing that Canadian real estate prices will continue on their current trend. I am arguing that they will not suffer a 35% collapse like that incurred in the US, because of several mitigating factors that I outlined.

    The first few points you make there are all reasons why sales have slowed in the months following the CMHC changes.

    As for Price-to-rent ratios: again, as I outlined, comparing these values across time is not a fair comparison because they do not account for declining interest rates. I bet if you were to look at Price-to-Net Operating income ratios, which incorporate interest payments, you would find that the current average does not deviate from the historical average by such a large degree.
    Nov 9 10:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Canadian Housing: It Actually Is Different This Time [View article]
    Thanks for the clarification.
    Nov 9 10:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Canadian Housing: It Actually Is Different This Time [View article]
    To be clear, I'm not recommending anyone load up on Canadian real estate. There are clearly better investments out there, including US real estate. I am arguing that the Canadian real estate market (and by extension the Canadian economy) is unlikely to suffer a titanic collapse a la US real estate in 2007/2008.
    Nov 9 10:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Canadian Housing: It Actually Is Different This Time [View article]
    True. so if interest rates fall dramatically and incomes are stable to increasing slightly ...... prices can float upwards without defying gravity. Gravity gets a little less powerful.
    Nov 9 10:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Canadian Housing: It Actually Is Different This Time [View article]
    Great points. The key here is what will cause a string of defaults? The US housing market collapsed under the weight of its own leverage. Unless rates spike higher, thats unlikely to happen in Canada.

    Plus, the spiral in the US was compounded and magnified by the uncertainty over government backing of the banks. The US economy plunged because of fear of what was happening with the banks, not out of fear of what was happening with the housing market.
    Nov 8 09:11 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Canadian Housing: It Actually Is Different This Time [View article]
    That's great insight and it's pretty much what I expected. As I understand it, the vast majority of purchases by immigrants or other international investors/owners are made with alot of equity into the proptery, so a decline in prices is less likely to precipitate a vicious cycle of foreclosures.

    Granted, there might be a bit of panic selling to protect their equity, but there will also be alot that are comfortable with the shor-term decline.
    Nov 7 01:12 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Canadian Housing: It Actually Is Different This Time [View article]
    RIght. The US crash made it obvious that the freewheeling policies would lead to disaster and the Canadian governmetn was able to rein in their policies before leverage got out of hand.
    Nov 7 12:49 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Canadian Housing: It Actually Is Different This Time [View article]
    Great info. Thanks for that. I disagree that the credit crisis 'delayed' the Canadian crash. It was a comparatively strong economy fueled by natural resources that 'delayed' the crash.
    Nov 7 12:47 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Canadian Housing: It Actually Is Different This Time [View article]
    This is a fair point. I am certainly not suggesting that the Canadian real estate market remains on its current trajectory. Its just not likely there will be a collapse.

    Also, what I am suggesting here is that Canadians are not as over-indebted as we might think. In this low-rate environment, they can fairly comfortably make their payments.
    Nov 6 04:36 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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