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The Unintelligible Investor

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  • DSR and FOR Consistent with Continuing Economic Recovery [View instapost]
    vvvveeerrrryyyy interesting. the correlation to the economy is obvious: lower mortgage payments = more discretionary income and higher consumer spending.

    BUT if you added real energy costs (mainly gasoline) as a debt service item, I doubt we would be nearly as close to historical lows.
    Jun 23 09:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix Keeps Rising [View article]
    its not that people won't use the service. they do and will, especially during difficult periods. Its a growth problem. I don't see anyway Netflix can add enough subscribers to satisfy its multiple.

    And competition is going to be a real problem. there are alot of big names moving into the space. Its not like the old days of brick-and-mortar rentals. Location and convenience means nothing. Very hard to maintain a dominant market share in this case.
    Jun 15 09:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook Has Me Flip Flopping on Netflix [View article]
    yup ... internet customers are much less sticky than bricks and mortar ones.
    Jun 9 11:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook Has Me Flip Flopping on Netflix [View article]
    by my very rough math, NFLX must have over 600 million subscribers worldwide by the year 2026 to satisfy its current market price. this assumes they simply continue with their exisiting business model of $7 monthly subscription.

    Now, of course, they are getting into content, which I think is a huge mistake. It is not a growth driver: they will still charge a monthly fee subscription. It is a cost item for them and it is a much more risky proposition. As their current content providers begin to see NFLX as a competitor rather than a customer, they will pull content from NFLX ... and NFLX will be exposed to the same, almost random, hit or miss nature of producing a hit show. So they've got increased uncertainty of revenues and its probably gonna cost alot more than they realize too.

    then there is the whole thing of competition. NFLX has a head start in streaming to be sure, but as mentioned in the article, what happens when the real big players such as Apple, A mazon, Google, and Facebook start to pry their way in. Sony has their own streaming service with the Playstation.

    All these players have high brand awareness and internet traffic that could easily steal from NFLX's pie. Not too mention resources. All those companies are 10x the size of NFLX.

    NFLX reminds me of a Nintendo/Sega or RIMM. They were the first mover and had tremendous growth ... but that inevitably attracts players with deeper pockets and broader customer bases than you.
    Jun 9 11:10 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • RIM's Grim Earnings Reality [View article]
    I miss the "dislike" button
    Jun 7 05:29 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SGI: The Magical 1% Growth Momentum Stock [View article]
    SeekingAlpha moves the market yet again
    May 11 12:11 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • SGI: The Magical 1% Growth Momentum Stock [View article]
    this is a very compelling argument here. Thank you so much for the info. Truly good shorts are hard to find and I think you may have one here.

    The worry here is how long can the CEO continue to mislead before he bites the bullet and has to show real numbers. Could be awhile and the stock could maintain momentum over that time. Shorting is risky business!
    May 10 06:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SGI: The Magical 1% Growth Momentum Stock [View article]
    worked for silver didn't it???
    May 10 06:06 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • EBIX and Its CEO Are 2 Class Acts to Follow [View article]
    "I’d be remiss in neglecting to mention the values expressed by the CEO as his own --integrity, truth and sincerity; or his passions; his family, his company and his foundation. "

    All values espoused by good men and sociopaths alike.
    Apr 11 11:57 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • SEC Letter Results in Buffett Explaining Undervaluation of 5 Stocks [View article]
    i love Warren Buffett, but you are right. The price of the stock is the price of the stock and that's what it should be marked at in his books.
    Mar 30 11:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 11 Low PE Stocks Not Widely Followed and Growing Rapidly [View article]
    great prospects here. thx for the info.
    Mar 29 03:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ebix: Not a Chinese Fraud, But a House of Cards Nonetheless, Part III [View article]
    "To me it appears you are another pseudo name of the author"

    lol.not even close.
    Mar 26 05:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ebix: Not a Chinese Fraud, But a House of Cards Nonetheless, Part III [View article]
    Well, short sellers often undergo significant retribution when they make their views public. If a company is run by people unethical and devious enough to lie to its shareholders and the rest of the investing world in the name of short term personal gain, imagine how unethical they might be in dealing with someone shedding light on them.

    The author could be subjected to lawsuits up his a$$, an SEC investigation, slander, threats, intimidation, and violence against himself and his family ... lead by those with far greater resources and connections than he has.

    Rarely have I seen the same treatment of someone touting a long position.
    Mar 26 05:45 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ebix: Not a Chinese Fraud, But a House of Cards Nonetheless, Part III [View article]
    Bernie Madoff was running a Ponzi scheme for nearly 2 decades
    Mar 25 01:12 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Ebix: Not a Chinese Fraud, But a House of Cards Nonetheless, Part III [View article]
    Exactly!

    And if I were an EBIX shareholder, I would not want to hear my CEO dismiss this article as a "baseless smear campaign by a ruthless shortseller".

    I would want an immediate, comprehensive rebuttal that refutes each point in detail and leaves no doubt in my mind that this article, while compelling and certainly not warranting any legal reprimand, is wrong.
    Mar 25 01:10 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
173 Comments
177 Likes