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The Unintelligible Investor  

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  • Ebix: Not a Chinese Fraud, But a House of Cards Nonetheless, Part I [View article]
    my sentiments exactly
    Mar 24, 2011. 04:01 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Ebix: Not a Chinese Fraud, But a House of Cards Nonetheless, Part I [View article]
    Would you suggest that anyone who writes a positive article or research report and discloses that they have a long position "be investigated"?

    If you are long EBIX, you should probably just read the report, which I doubt you have, and make a judgment based on the facts. If you believe his statements to be incorrect, the market will come around.

    He in no way deserves to be investigated for sharing his views, all of which have a reasonable basis.
    Mar 24, 2011. 04:01 PM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ebix: Not a Chinese Fraud, But a House of Cards Nonetheless, Part III [View article]
    the stock is not down ~20% because of a scandalous short seller undertaking a baseless smear campaign.

    the stock is down ~20% because a well reasoned, well researched argument has been made as to why EBIX is a flaming turd.

    I await the CEO of EBIX's response, which will without doubt be a rehashing of the same defiant, empty rhetoric of every other man whose lies have caught up to him.
    Mar 24, 2011. 03:41 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Green Mountain Coffee: A Prime Short Candidate [View article]
    this type of poor rationale woud make me very nervous if I was a Green Mountain shareholder. Smells like the tech bubble. granted, at least there actually are earnings.
    Feb 4, 2011. 02:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Green Mountain Coffee: A Prime Short Candidate [View article]
    actually, if you read it again, you'll see that Paragraph 3 refers to "OPERATING INCOME", which is EPS before things like interest. And, of course, interest payments would decline as debt is paid down from the proceeds of equity issuance.

    so while EPS might be increasing, OPERATING INCOME per share is not.
    Feb 4, 2011. 02:54 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Robert Shiller Thinks Stocks Are Overvalued. I Don't [View article]
    There are 3 components to price:

    Earnings - gradually making a comeback
    growth - probably only slightly underestimated at this point in the market cycle.
    interest rate (cost of capital) - lower than its ever been in history.

    P/E ratio does not account for prevailing interest rates, so use with caution.
    Jan 28, 2011. 03:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Helen of Troy: Boring, But Cheap [View article]
    very intriguing opportunity. I love boring companies with lots of free cash that use it for acquisitions.

    any idea why they were spinning their heels from a revenue perspective in the latter half of the 2000s?
    Jan 25, 2011. 11:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook and Groupon Valuations: Party Like It's 2000 [View article]
    you've hit the nail squarely and firmly on the head. i hope the bubble doesn't burst pre-IPO. i may have plenty of stock to short!
    Jan 17, 2011. 05:18 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The 12 'Dumbest' Investments You Could Make Right Now [View article]
    I am a big believer in this investment style with the major caveat that, as thickheaded as the market may be at times, sometimes the market prices things correctly. just because a stock or commodity is down, doesn't mean its below its intrinsic value. when you really make the money is when you are right and the market is wrong.
    Dec 15, 2010. 11:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • JP Morgan and the Massive Silver Short: The Greatest Story Ever Told [View article]
    Kid Dynamite,

    thank you. An excellent debunking of this ridiculous rumor that I did actually here about through a friend and responded with about as much frustration and incregulity as you have shown here.

    The arguments from the "true believers" are very thin and rely on scenarios that are extremely unlikely. The short interest "might" be 3.3 bill ounces. It "might"be naked. JPM, for whatever reason, "might" be doing the bidding of the US govt and artificially surpressing silver prices.

    And, of course, your presentation of actual facts shows that these are gigantic leaps.

    according to quantum mechanics, it is entirely possible for my body to, on chance, walk right through a wall. The possibility is so remote, however, that I would never be stupid enough to bet on it.

    Then the arguments spiral out-of-control and take on the paranoid, conspiracy-minded slant all-to-common among ignoramuses and blowhards (or "trolls" as you like to call them).

    Like you, I don't have the guts to short silver. How could you have the confidence to do so when going up against all of these idiots?
    Dec 13, 2010. 04:33 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • JP Morgan and the Massive Silver Short: The Greatest Story Ever Told [View article]
    "Unless they are acting for some other entity."

    actually, that's exactly what banks do. That's why they are called financial INTERMEDIARIES.

    "The major banks can always tap into the FED for unlimited funds to play the silver game or get of out trouble."

    uh, no they can't. the fed is not taking short forward contracts as collateral for lending at the discount window, especially when the emergency procedures brought in during the crisis have been eliminated. And while the FED Funds rate is low, that is for OVERNIGHT loans. 1 day! And that simply sets the rate at which banks lend to each other! The reason people are so against the banking system is they simply don't understand it.
    Dec 13, 2010. 04:19 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Top Stock Picks in Three Out of Favor Groups [View article]
    I would say DeVry is the best pick of the group. DV has the lowest leverage of the bunch, has a higher rate of graduation, persistence, and loan payout than the University of Phoenix and some of the other suspect organizations. And they have skirted much of the negative press impacting the industry. And they've expanded their focus in health care professions, which should be a major growth driver going forward.

    Given the budget crises in various state governments and the feds, the US is going to need the for-profit industry to train its workforce in the years ahead.
    Dec 9, 2010. 01:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Book Review: Koo's 'Holy Grail of Macroeconomics' Thorough but Fails to Consider Post-Recovery Debt [View article]
    government debt is a requirement of our system, this is true, but it is not necessarily a bad thing. debt creates efficiencies in the market and provides businesses access to capital required for growth. and government debt is a good thing as well. TOO MUCH debt is a bad thing.

    the government debt does not ever have to be paid off entirely. it just has to be reduced to more managable levels. and it doesn't necessarily have to be significantly reduced before the next recession. It has to be paid off before the next BALANCE SHEET recession though or we are screwed. And that is what Koo is saying.
    Dec 6, 2010. 01:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GameStop: The Next Blockbuster? [View article]
    This is a great article, to be sure, but there is a fundamental flaw in your valuation. a 1% terminal growth rate seems quite hefty for a company that may not be around in 5 to 10 years.

    If you could point to any ray of light for Gamestop, its that the used market is much more important in gaming than it was to music or video. no one bought "used" music. they rented video and can do it for a very similar price via streaming.

    but in gaming, you can buy a used game and get the same amount of enjoyment for a reduced price. I'm not sure how you can buy a "used" game digitally. so Gamestop may always have a price advantage.
    Nov 18, 2010. 12:28 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • KHD Humboldt Wedag: Cement on the Rebound? [View article]
    You are my favorite contributor on Seeking Alpha. Always interesting ideas. Always well written.
    Aug 25, 2010. 01:01 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment