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The Unintelligible Investor

 
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  • Robert Shiller Thinks Stocks Are Overvalued. I Don't [View article]
    There are 3 components to price:

    Earnings - gradually making a comeback
    growth - probably only slightly underestimated at this point in the market cycle.
    interest rate (cost of capital) - lower than its ever been in history.

    P/E ratio does not account for prevailing interest rates, so use with caution.
    Jan 28 03:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Helen of Troy: Boring, But Cheap [View article]
    very intriguing opportunity. I love boring companies with lots of free cash that use it for acquisitions.

    any idea why they were spinning their heels from a revenue perspective in the latter half of the 2000s?
    Jan 25 11:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook and Groupon Valuations: Party Like It's 2000 [View article]
    you've hit the nail squarely and firmly on the head. i hope the bubble doesn't burst pre-IPO. i may have plenty of stock to short!
    Jan 17 05:18 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The 12 'Dumbest' Investments You Could Make Right Now [View article]
    I am a big believer in this investment style with the major caveat that, as thickheaded as the market may be at times, sometimes the market prices things correctly. just because a stock or commodity is down, doesn't mean its below its intrinsic value. when you really make the money is when you are right and the market is wrong.
    Dec 15 11:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • JP Morgan and the Massive Silver Short: The Greatest Story Ever Told [View article]
    Kid Dynamite,

    thank you. An excellent debunking of this ridiculous rumor that I did actually here about through a friend and responded with about as much frustration and incregulity as you have shown here.

    The arguments from the "true believers" are very thin and rely on scenarios that are extremely unlikely. The short interest "might" be 3.3 bill ounces. It "might"be naked. JPM, for whatever reason, "might" be doing the bidding of the US govt and artificially surpressing silver prices.

    And, of course, your presentation of actual facts shows that these are gigantic leaps.

    according to quantum mechanics, it is entirely possible for my body to, on chance, walk right through a wall. The possibility is so remote, however, that I would never be stupid enough to bet on it.

    Then the arguments spiral out-of-control and take on the paranoid, conspiracy-minded slant all-to-common among ignoramuses and blowhards (or "trolls" as you like to call them).

    Like you, I don't have the guts to short silver. How could you have the confidence to do so when going up against all of these idiots?
    Dec 13 04:33 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • JP Morgan and the Massive Silver Short: The Greatest Story Ever Told [View article]
    "Unless they are acting for some other entity."

    actually, that's exactly what banks do. That's why they are called financial INTERMEDIARIES.

    "The major banks can always tap into the FED for unlimited funds to play the silver game or get of out trouble."

    uh, no they can't. the fed is not taking short forward contracts as collateral for lending at the discount window, especially when the emergency procedures brought in during the crisis have been eliminated. And while the FED Funds rate is low, that is for OVERNIGHT loans. 1 day! And that simply sets the rate at which banks lend to each other! The reason people are so against the banking system is they simply don't understand it.
    Dec 13 04:19 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Top Stock Picks in Three Out of Favor Groups [View article]
    I would say DeVry is the best pick of the group. DV has the lowest leverage of the bunch, has a higher rate of graduation, persistence, and loan payout than the University of Phoenix and some of the other suspect organizations. And they have skirted much of the negative press impacting the industry. And they've expanded their focus in health care professions, which should be a major growth driver going forward.

    Given the budget crises in various state governments and the feds, the US is going to need the for-profit industry to train its workforce in the years ahead.
    Dec 9 01:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Book Review: Koo's 'Holy Grail of Macroeconomics' Thorough but Fails to Consider Post-Recovery Debt [View article]
    government debt is a requirement of our system, this is true, but it is not necessarily a bad thing. debt creates efficiencies in the market and provides businesses access to capital required for growth. and government debt is a good thing as well. TOO MUCH debt is a bad thing.

    the government debt does not ever have to be paid off entirely. it just has to be reduced to more managable levels. and it doesn't necessarily have to be significantly reduced before the next recession. It has to be paid off before the next BALANCE SHEET recession though or we are screwed. And that is what Koo is saying.
    Dec 6 01:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GameStop: The Next Blockbuster? [View article]
    This is a great article, to be sure, but there is a fundamental flaw in your valuation. a 1% terminal growth rate seems quite hefty for a company that may not be around in 5 to 10 years.

    If you could point to any ray of light for Gamestop, its that the used market is much more important in gaming than it was to music or video. no one bought "used" music. they rented video and can do it for a very similar price via streaming.

    but in gaming, you can buy a used game and get the same amount of enjoyment for a reduced price. I'm not sure how you can buy a "used" game digitally. so Gamestop may always have a price advantage.
    Nov 18 12:28 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • KHD Humboldt Wedag: Cement on the Rebound? [View article]
    You are my favorite contributor on Seeking Alpha. Always interesting ideas. Always well written.
    Aug 25 01:01 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Manulife a Contrarian Buy? [View article]
    I am an MFC shareholder as well and while it may be viewed as a cop-out to talk about long-term results when the stock has almost been cut in half during the year ... I think this is clearly (and increasingly) an undervalued stock.

    Insurance is a fundamental product in most people's lives. Manulife has a 100+ year history of success and is doing everything it can to navigate the lowest interest rate environment in history. The dividend cut and capital raises were all necessary steps to ensure long-term viability.

    Once interest rates and stock markets get back on the vertical path (and they absolutely will), this stock will march ahead.
    Aug 18 08:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Looking Down the Tracks at Slow Growth [View article]
    excellent article. i wouldn't give up on railroad traffic as an indicator yet. stuff moving on rail isn't really an indicator, it IS the economy.
    Aug 17 03:10 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Visa: When Plastic Beats Paper [View article]
    not 100% accurate. Visa does not receive any revenue from the interchange fees. The interchange fee is paid from the acquirer bank to the issuer bank. Then the acquirer bank stiffs the merchant on discount rates.
    Jul 30 11:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I'm Holding Onto ATP Oil & Gas [View article]
    Great info as always.

    The potential for this stock is obvious. I bought in around 9.50 because I thought the company could survive the moratorium without issue.

    but this min liability cap could be crippling. i understand that it won't impact existing wells.

    but it will hamper (if not complete eliminate) ATPs ability to grow its reserve base in the GoM. then, as its bleeding off its existing reserves, its debt obligations will become more and more difficult to meet.

    and if you are a would-be purchaser, wouldn't you rather wait until ATPG went bankrupt first? Like Barclay's did with Lehman

    this stock absolutely could go to zero and its very difficult to guage the probability b/c the government is the wildcard, as you say.
    Jul 16 12:26 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Rising Financial Requirements and ATP Oil & Gas [View article]
    I am long ATPG and quite happy about it right now ... but im long at 9.50/share. these guys survived $30 oil and the credit crisis. i like their chances going forward.

    thank you for the added info. this stock is getting plenty of coverage right now.
    Jul 7 09:15 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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