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  • Sportman's Warehouse - Appeal Increases As The Situation Is Stabilizing
    Yesterday, 7:34 AM SPWH 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Sportman's Warehouse posts relatively solid results in a difficult operating environment.
    • The valuation and growth potential remains attractive as leverage remains a concern.
    • Shares offer a more appealing risk-reward potential at current levels for opportunistic investors.
  • Vera Bradley - Fair Valuation As Comparables Become Easier
    Yesterday, 7:14 AM VRA Comment!

    Summary

    • Vera Bradley posts earnings and an outlook which is largely in line with consensus estimates.
    • This year will mark another year of stagnation, although comparables become easier.
    • The valuation is not very appealing at the moment, despite the easier comparables and strong balance sheet.
  • AutoNation: Minor Deal, No Appeal
    Fri, Sep. 12 AN Comment!

    Summary

    • AutoNation announced a modest acquisition of four franchises around Seattle.
    • The deal is small, adding just 2% in reported sales.
    • A fair earnings multiple, leverage, lack of growth and already strong operating conditions limit appeal going forward.
  • Five Below Delivers On Growth As Expectations Remain High
    Fri, Sep. 12 FIVE 2 Comments

    Summary

    • Five Below reports results and issues an outlook largely in line with expectations.
    • The company has shown aggressive expansion in recent years, targeted to continue going forward.
    • Shares trade at a premium valuation, creating no margin for error in the growth trajectory.
    • As such, the risk-reward is not very appealing at current levels, in my eyes.
  • Ulta Beauty - Great Results, Great Business, No Beautiful Entry Point
    Fri, Sep. 12 ULTA Comment!

    Summary

    • Ulta Beauty reports very strong numbers, raises its outlook.
    • Investors are cheering, sending shares much higher towards $110 per share in after-hours trading.
    • Long term appeal remains, yet current levels are not an appealing risk-reward entry point.
  • Eastman Chemical - Fair Deal, Leverage Concerns Outweigh In The Short Run
    Fri, Sep. 12 EMN 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Eastman Chemical acquires another specialty chemical player, this time it is Taminco.
    • The strategic rationale is fine, earnings per share accretion is appealing.
    • I remain cautious as the company increases leverage at a very good point in the cycle.
    • The valuation is becoming more appealing as the business becomes less cyclical going forwards.
  • Kroger - Solid Quarter, No Surprises
    Fri, Sep. 12 KR 6 Comments

    Summary

    • Kroger posts a solid second quarter earning reports.
    • The raised full year guidance fails to impress the investment community.
    • The strong track record and fair valuation amidst ambitious long-term earnings target is attractive.
    • Yet relatively high current leverage and +30% returns so far this year limit appeal in the short to medium term.
  • HD Supply - Great Business, Too Much Leverage, Limited Appeal
    Fri, Sep. 12 HDS Comment!

    Summary

    • HD Supply posts a solid second quarter performance, issues a comforting outlook.
    • While operations are moving along fine, the leverage employed is a real concern in my eyes.
    • I remain very cautious amidst the premium valuation and leverage concerns, not seeing appeal at current levels.
  • Restoration Hardware - Correction Is Well-Deserved Following The Soft Results
    Fri, Sep. 12 RH 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Restoration Hardware reports disappointing sales, in what seems to be a temporary issue.
    • Yet the third and fourth quarter outlook cannot convince investors as well.
    • I remain cautious amidst the premium valuation and the cyclical nature of the business.
    • The cautiousness is despite the stellar track record of the business.
  • Caterpillar - Well-Timed Exit By Analysts, As I Share The Cautiousness
    Thu, Sep. 11 CAT 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Bank of America pulls its buy recommendation on Caterpillar.
    • Risks loom with share price performance outperforming the real operational performance.
    • I am cautious on the prospects as well amidst a premium valuation, the cyclical nature of the business and lack of sales growth.
  • Lululemon Athletica - With Initiatives Already Starting To Pay Off, Investors Are Pleasantly Surprised
    Thu, Sep. 11 LULU Comment!

    Summary

    • Lululemon reports a strong second quarter earnings report, hikes its full year outlook.
    • Shares offer long term appeal in my eyes amidst the strong growth, track record and balance sheet.
    • As shares have been cut in half from their highs last year, there is still long term potential.
  • Chevron - Oil Price Correction Sends Shares Lower, Creating Opportunities For Long-Term Investors
    Thu, Sep. 11 CVX 5 Comments

    Summary

    • Bank of America turns cautious on Chevron.
    • Lower oil prices pressure operational cash flows which results in a run-up in debt following a period of high capital expenditures.
    • I am not so worried as production growth is anticipated with lower future capital expenditures providing a opportunity to deleverage again rather soon.
    • As such Chevron remains a quality asset worth buying on significant dips.
  • Palo Alto Networks: Accelerating Growth Sends Shares To Fresh Highs
    Wed, Sep. 10 PANW 5 Comments

    Summary

    • Palo Alto Networks reports accelerating growth and GAAP losses.
    • Investors cheer about the continued growth and solid outlook.
    • I wonder what the real growth would be if the company would not excessively spend on sales and marketing efforts.
    • The risk-reward is not too appealing in my eyes with many valuation questions left unanswered.
  • The Gap - Soft August Results And BAC Downgrade Kills Momentum Ride
    Wed, Sep. 10 GPS 1 Comment

    Summary

    • The Gap gets downgraded by Bank of America, seeing risks to this year's outlook.
    • While the August sales have been disappointing, I remain upbeat about the long term prospects of the business.
    • Given the momentum in August, I am only a buyer on dips towards the low forties.
  • Krispy Kreme Doughnuts - Another Disappointment, Still No Appeal
    Wed, Sep. 10 KKD 5 Comments

    Summary

    • Krispy Kreme beats on revenues, disappoints on earnings.
    • The valuation is demanding at the moment, despite long-term store opening targets and brand expansion.
    • I remain cautious amidst a record of disappointments and increasing health consciousness.
  • General Mills - Doubles Down On Organic Foods... Short-Term Contribution Will Be Limited
    Wed, Sep. 10 GIS 4 Comments

    Summary

    • General Mills acquires Annie's to double down on its organic food business.
    • While the strategic nature of the deal is appealing, the real contribution is rather limited.
    • Shares trade at a premium valuation amidst an appealing dividend, I am a buyer on significant dips accounting for the leverage of the business.
  • Francesca's - Buy The Dip Amidst Attractive Valuation, Easier Comps And Solid Balance Sheet
    Wed, Sep. 10 FRAN 4 Comments

    Summary

    • Francesca's missed consensus estimates when reporting its second quarter results.
    • As I find the full year outlook comforting, with comparables getting easier.
    • Given the still high profits, expansion and strong balance sheet, the current valuation offers appeal.
  • Ford - Buy The Dip As Morgan Stanley Turns Cautious
    Wed, Sep. 10 F 19 Comments

    Summary

    • Morgan Stanley downgrades Ford ahead of the F-150 launch, foreseeing complications with the introduction.
    • This is as analysts foresee a more competitive and less profitable time ahead in North America.
    • Despite the cautious words, I like the share prospects amidst the fair valuation, expected improvements and solid payout.
  • FMC Corporation - Nice Deal As It Transforms Into A Pure Play Agricultural Solutions Provider
    Tue, Sep. 9 FMC Comment!

    Summary

    • FMC Corporation acquires Danish Cheminova to become a near pure-play in the agricultural solutions business.
    • To limit leverage FMC decides to sell and no longer spin-off the Alkali Chemicals unit.
    • The deal is nice, as I am a buyer at market-equivalent valuation multiples.
  • Campbell Soup - Another Disappointment, No Appeal Here
    Tue, Sep. 9 CPB 2 Comments

    Summary

    • Campbell Soup posts a relatively soft fourth quarter earnings report.
    • As the outlook for 2015 earnings implies another year of stagnation is anticipated.
    • The lack of growth and premium valuation in combination with some leverage leaves little to no appeal in my eyes.
  • Verint Systems - Fresh Highs As Growth Continues
    Tue, Sep. 9 VRNT Comment!

    Summary

    • Verint Systems managed to report another quarter of impressive growth.
    • Growing sales result in higher non-GAAP earnings as well, as the company raises its full year outlook.
    • I am worried about the consistent and large gap between GAAP and non-GAAP earnings metrics, making me quite cautious amidst some leverage.
  • General Electric - Much Anticipated Home Appliance Sale Does Not Move The Needle
    Mon, Sep. 8 GE 18 Comments

    Summary

    • GE announced the much anticipated sell of the appliance business to Electrolux.
    • The deal fits within the strategic direction of the company, focusing on the industrial business.
    • Yet the rewards are not seen yet, with sales being largely stagnant.
    • Shares offer little appeal for appreciation as they are already trade at a premium valuation.
  • Joy Global - Long-Term Perspectives Improve As The Business Is Stabilizing
    Mon, Sep. 8 JOY Comment!

    Summary

    • Joy Global reports another fall in sales and earnings.
    • As the booking numbers indicate a real sign of stabilization going forwards.
    • This creates appeal for investors with a medium to longer term horizon.
  • Cooper Companies - Nothing New To See Here, Valuation Is Demanding
    Sun, Sep. 7 COO Comment!

    Summary

    • Cooper Companies posted relatively soft third quarter sales, issues a soft sales outlook.
    • Investors are forgiving as the eyes are on the analyst meeting next week with investors hoping for news about the Sauflon deal.
    • After this year's momentum, shares are a bit too expensive in my eyes, making the current risk-reward not very appealing.
  • El Pollo LoCo - Post IPO Momentum Continues Amidst Solid Results
    Sat, Sep. 6 LOCO 4 Comments

    Summary

    • El Pollo LoCo posted solid second quarter results, issues a comforting full year outlook.
    • This is as investors have been riding the momentum bandwagon following the public offering.
    • Shares are expensive on current metrics, yet real margins, growth potential and momentum make it a dangerous short.
  • Ambarella: Fresh Highs After Blowout Third Quarter Guidance
    Fri, Sep. 5 AMBA 8 Comments

    Summary

    • Ambarella posts solid results, issues a blow-out third quarter outlook.
    • The company has been on a big run over the near past two years, driven by impressive and profitable growth.
    • While I have missed the opportunity to purchase shares multiple times in the past, I have to show discipline and refrain from chasing the current momentum.
  • Ciena: Well Deserved Sell-Off After Another Disappointment
    Fri, Sep. 5 CIEN Comment!

    Summary

    • Ciena reports solid third quarter results.
    • As the fourth quarter guidance is very disappointing, the company on track to report another year of losses.
    • The continued track record of disappointing earnings, or actually losses, on the back of growing revenues no longer satisfies investors.
  • Toll Brothers - Solid Execution As Some Worries Emerge
    Fri, Sep. 5 TOL 4 Comments

    Summary

    • Toll Brothers reports solid third quarter earnings as investors worry about the softer outlook.
    • This is as the company is ¨eating¨ into its order backlog amidst softer short term demand.
    • Amidst healthy operating conditions the valuation at 20 times earnings is demanding, amidst quite some leverage.
  • G-III Apparel - Continued Operational Momentum Pushes Shares To Fresh Highs
    Thu, Sep. 4 GIII Comment!

    Summary

    • G-III posts very strong results aided by organic growth and deals.
    • The balance sheet looks okay, although the firm carries quite some inventory.
    • Margins are thin, but stable as the valuation prices in quite some growth thanks to the strong track record.
    • I remain a bit cautious after multi-year momentum, only buying at market-equivalent valuation multiples.
  • Mobileye - More Risk Than Opportunity Looms Following The First Public Earnings Report
    Thu, Sep. 4 MBLY 12 Comments

    Summary

    • Mobileye posts second quarter results which are in line with expectations, after expectations have been heightened.
    • Shares have already doubled since the public offering, while sales are actually falling on a sequential basis.
    • The company pretty much has to hit a home run from this moment onwards to justify the valuation.
  • Teledyne - Great Deal, Great Long-Term Value Creator
    Thu, Sep. 4 TDY Comment!

    Summary

    • Teledyne acquires Bolt Technologies in what appears to be a nice deal.
    • The acquisition does not move the needle, but complements long term growth and margin expansion of the firm.
    • Shares are appealing on a 10-15% dip accounting for the increase in leverage and lack of dividends.
  • Vince Holding - Luxurious Valuation For Luxury Brand
    Thu, Sep. 4 VNCE 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Investors in Vince are disappointed with a full year guidance coming in merely in line with expectations.
    • The premium valuation and this year's momentum has pushed up expectations.
    • I remain cautious as well amidst a premium valuation and already fat margins.