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  • Vivint Solar - Excessive Risks In This Solar Offering
    Tue, Oct. 7 VSLR 8 Comments

    Summary

    • Vivint Solar sees a very disappointing public offering.
    • This is very understandable in my view given the large and even excessive risks in this IPO.
    • I continue to shun the shares, even as the recent fall has not made them attractive.
  • Actuant - Appeal Is Increasing, As I Will Wait Before Pulling The Trigger
    Mon, Oct. 6 ATU Comment!

    Summary

    • Actuant reports results which miss estimates, as the outlook is soft as well.
    • Investors are disappointed despite the announcement of a sizable share repurchase program.
    • I think appeal is increasing amidst a soft share price performance, but demand a slightly more attractive entry point before buying.
  • Becton Dickinson - Investors Cheer The CareFusion Deal, I Remain Cautious
    Mon, Oct. 6 BDX Comment!

    Summary

    • Becton Dickinson acquires CareFusion in a $12.2 billion deal.
    • Investors like the deal for the operational and financial implications, adding upto $5 billion to the combined market capitalization.
    • I remain a bit more cautious as all the good news is priced in with few potential triggers in the short to medium term.
  • Constellation Brands - Great Growth But Is There Appeal After Such A Big Run?
    Mon, Oct. 6 STZ 2 Comments

    Summary

    • Constellation Brands posts relatively soft quarterly results.
    • Of course the acquisition of Corona has been driving growth and value creation in recent years, in an industry lacking growth.
    • I remain very cautious at current levels given the leveraged balance sheet and premium valuation, despite reported growth.
  • Cree - Big Warning, Big Issues, Big Cash Holdings
    Sun, Oct. 5 CREE 11 Comments

    Summary

    • Cree warns for first quarter sales, margins and earnings.
    • This comes as the visibility of the earnings and sales remain limited.
    • I am tempted to initiate a position given the solid cash holdings and the fact that management has to wake up.
  • McCormick - Solid Returns, Great Company, Little Appeal
    Sun, Oct. 5 MKC 2 Comments

    Summary

    • McCormick posts strong results, issues a solid outlook.
    • The company has a great history of steady growth and solid growth prospects.
    • Despite these appealing points I am not willing to pay a +20 times earnings multiple for the business.
  • Dover - Fair Deal, Fair Valuation, Limited Current Appeal
    Sun, Oct. 5 DOV Comment!

    Summary

    • Dover announced the acquisition of Accelerated Companies in a $430 million deal.
    • The acquisition will expand the energy business by some 10% going forwards.
    • The fair deal and fair valuation leaves no immediate appeal, as I am only a buyer on significant dips.
  • AZZ - Great Business, Appeal On Dips
    Fri, Oct. 3 AZZ 4 Comments

    Summary

    • Shares of AZZ plunged on Wednesday causing a great potential entry point in this long term investment opportunity.
    • Unfortunately I was not paying attention as the soft quarter will be made up for later this year.
    • Shares offer potential in the long run, I am a buyer on dips.
  • Acuity Brands - Great Business Prospects As Premium Valuation Limits Investment Appeal
    Fri, Oct. 3 AYI Comment!

    Summary

    • Acuity Brands posts solid results and issues a comforting qualitative outlook.
    • Solid multi-year opportunities and strong insider ownership, combined with fat earnings and solid balance sheet are appealing.
    • As the strong multi-year momentum has resulted in little risk-reward appeal at current levels in my eyes.
  • Knight Transportation - Great Deal, Appeal Is Limited Following Strong Momentum
    Thu, Oct. 2 KNX 6 Comments

    Summary

    • Knight Transportation acquires Barr-Nunn in a great and highly accretive deal.
    • Shares have risen sharply already this year as margins have finally stabilized and recovered slightly.
    • The risk-reward appeal is limited following the momentum amidst a premium valuation.
  • Graco - Nice Deal, Strategy And Track Record
    Thu, Oct. 2 GGG 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Graco announces the modest deal to acquire Alco Valves.
    • The deal looks fair and fits within the company's overall strategy.
    • I like the overall strategy and track record, yet await a potential better entry point before becoming enthusiastic.
  • Panera Bread - Stay Disciplined As Investors And Analysts Are Turning Bullish
    Thu, Oct. 2 PNRA 3 Comments

    Summary

    • Panera's shares have recovered from the summer lows in recent weeks.
    • This momentum has been aided by analysts which are turning more optimistic.
    • I remain disciplined and stick with my more defensive entry point.
  • Walgreen: No Surprises, Long-Term Appeal Remains
    Thu, Oct. 2 WAG 7 Comments

    Summary

    • Walgreen posts fourth-quarter results in line with consensus estimates.
    • Despite some leverage and integration challenges ahead, shares trade at appealing forward multiples in a long-term growth industry.
    • As such I remain optimistic about the long-term prospects.
  • Kellogg - Caution As Structural Headwinds And Leverage Limit Appeal
    Thu, Oct. 2 K 4 Comments

    Summary

    • Kellogg is not in favor with analysts, citing worries about growth, earnings and cost savings.
    • I largely agree, having been cautious on the prospects for the shares for a longer time.
    • Despite a 3% yield, appeal is not here yet with the risk-reward not being that attractive as operational risks appear to be increasing.
  • Alcoa - As Analysts Raise Expectations Into Earnings, I Remain Cautious
    Wed, Oct. 1 AA 11 Comments

    Summary

    • Bank of America turns optimistic on Alcoa heading into its third quarter earnings report next week.
    • This comes after shares have doubled already over the past year, with investors applauding the value-added strategy which seems sound.
    • Not being able to figure out how profitable the business is expected to become going forwards, I remain a bit more cautious as expectations have risen significantly already.
  • Esterline Technologies: Nice Deal, But Appeal Remains Limited
    Wed, Oct. 1 ESL Comment!

    Summary

    • Esterline Technologies announced a $200 million deal to acquire activities from Belgium based Barco.
    • The deal looks favorable, being executed at fair revenue multiples as earnings accretion is expected.
    • The overall valuation remains a bit steep which makes me cautious.
  • Cintas - Great Business, Solid Stock, Limited Appeal
    Wed, Oct. 1 CTAS Comment!

    Summary

    • Cintas posts earnings largely in line with expectations.
    • As the company turns a little more cautious on the full year outlook.
    • The ¨full¨ valuation results in few potential triggers for shares going forwards, making me cautious at current levels.
  • Cal-Maine Foods - Nice Business, But Buy On Dips As Current Operating Conditions Are Not Sustainable
    Tue, Sep. 30 CALM 7 Comments

    Summary

    • Cal-Maine Foods posts results largely in line with expectations.
    • While the company is upbeat about this year's outlook, it has issued a preliminary warning on egg prices.
    • I like the business, but am aware that current conditions will most likely not last, requiring a margin of safety before initiating a position.
  • The Finish Line: Selloff Creates Potential Opportunities To Find Value
    Tue, Sep. 30 FINL Comment!

    Summary

    • Analysts weigh in on the soft second quarter earnings report.
    • While the operational achievements are not impressive, appeal based on earnings and a strong balance sheet is increasing.
    • Consequently I am willing to inititate a modest position in case of a slightly further correction.
  • Northrop Grumman - Analysts Turn Bullish, Here Is Why I Am Much More Cautious
    Tue, Sep. 30 NOC 9 Comments

    Summary

    • Deutsche Bank turns optimistic on Northrop Grumman, citing potential for increased defense spending.
    • The upgrade seems late in my eyes after shares have doubled since the start of 2013.
    • I remain much more cautious following this momentum and historically high margins.
  • LinkedIn - Analysts See More Upside, As I Am Cautious About The Timing Of The Upgrade
    Tue, Sep. 30 LNKD 5 Comments

    Summary

    • LinkedIn is being upgraded by analysts at Cowen, citing more opportunities for future revenue growth.
    • This is as analysts project revenues close to $10 billion by 2020, if all goes according to plan.
    • I like the business as well, but am cautious on the prospects for the shares after jumping up 50% in just 5 months.
  • Travelport - No Appeal In This Leveraged Travel Public Offering
    Mon, Sep. 29 TVPT Comment!

    Summary

    • Travelport went public this week, with shares trading around their offering level.
    • I remain cautious amidst the high leverage position, as the company continues to post losses.
    • The in my eyes excessive leverage makes it easy for me to hold off making an investment, also given the slow pace of revenue growth.
  • Thor Industries - Appeal Is Increasing Amidst A Correction And Continued Growth
    Sun, Sep. 28 THO 5 Comments

    Summary

    • Thor Industries posted relatively solid fourth quarter results.
    • The company continues to be well-led, makes accretive deals, while operating with a solid net cash position.
    • After a recent correction, shares are approaching levels which I start to find attractive.
  • CyberArk Software: Growth, Growth Prospects And Profits, But Appeal?
    Fri, Sep. 26 CYBR 3 Comments

    Summary

    • CyberArk Software witnessed a very successful public offering this week.
    • The Israeli cyber security business is growing rapidly, has a good outlook and is profitable.
    • After shares have doubled from their initial guided range, appeal is limited in my eyes.
  • Worthington Industries: No Real Appeal Despite A 15% Correction
    Fri, Sep. 26 WOR Comment!

    Summary

    • Worthington Industries posts relatively solid first quarter results.
    • As shares continue their slide which began this summer.
    • Even after a 15% correction appeal is limited amidst a premium valuation, the modest leverage and modest long term track record.
  • Nike - Just Did It Again
    Fri, Sep. 26 NKE 3 Comments

    Summary

    • Nike posts a very strong start to the fiscal year of 2015.
    • As earnings could growth by 20% again this year, putting the company ahead of its long term plans.
    • I continue to like the company, but remain patient for a significant pullback being aware of the risks on missing out on a further rally.
  • Smart & Final Stores - A Word Of Caution On This Public Offering
    Fri, Sep. 26 SFS 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Smart & Final Stores has gone public this week in a non-inspiring public offering.
    • Growth is appealing, although leverage, slim margins and tough competition make me cautious.
    • Consequently I hold off making an investment for now as I will keep the shares on my watchlist going forwards.
  • Paychex - Appealing Dividend, But Limited Potential For Capital Gains
    Fri, Sep. 26 PAYX 5 Comments

    Summary

    • Paychex reports solid first quarter results.
    • The outlook for the year looks decent as well.
    • Appeal is limited despite a great track record and 3.5% dividend yield as valuation multiples are quite steep.
  • Micron Technology - Solid Results As The Good Times Continue
    Fri, Sep. 26 MU 7 Comments

    Summary

    • Micron Technology posts solid results, issues a comforting outlook.
    • The oligopoly in the business continues to allow for these high earnings.
    • While I see an appealing valuation and growth, I worry what happens if this oligopoly is broken apart.
  • Buffalo Wild Wings - Well-Timed Upgrade Comes Too Early For Me
    Fri, Sep. 26 BWLD 7 Comments

    Summary

    • Buffalo Wild Wings' shares have seen a terrible summer, losing a fifth of their value.
    • Analysts at Miller Tabak think this is the right time to jump in, aided by anticipated lower wing prices going forwards.
    • I like the business and the stock as well, but have a slightly lower target entry point around $115 per share.
  • HomeAway - Positive Outlook, Premium Valuation, But Is There Appeal?
    Thu, Sep. 25 AWAY Comment!

    Summary

    • HomeAway receives some positive coverage from analysts at SunTrust.
    • I agree with the bullish forecast and outlook for the business, in an industry which is still in transformation which creates long term opportunities and challenges.
    • The fair valuation range is wide, as I don't see a compelling long or short term investment opportunity, resulting me to play this from the sidelines.
  • KB Home - Another Disappointment In Housing, I Remain Cautious
    Thu, Sep. 25 KBH 1 Comment

    Summary

    • KB Home posts very soft sales and earnings, blaming construction delays and mortgage application delays for the shortfall.
    • While management remains optimistic, investors are rushing to sell.
    • Given the troubled past of the company and wider industry, I remain very cautious not seeing any real appeal at the moment.