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The Value Investor

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  • Cisco Systems - Shares Bounce Higher As Chambers Sees Encouraging Signs [View article]
    I don't expect another dividend hike in the short run as Cisco already recently hiked its dividend. Yet the company targets to pay out 50% of its free cash flow by means of repurchases and dividends.

    At current levels it might be more interesting for shareholders if Cisco continues to repurchase shares at this current pace, potentially more interesting than announcing yet another dividend hike.
    May 19 12:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SodaStream - Shorts Get Squeezed As Fundamentals Keep Improving [View article]
    No specific target. Just think the long term risk rewards looks favorable. Price could go anywhere between in the meantime.
    May 16 05:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Chipotle Mexican Grill: As Stock Recovery Outpaces Fundamental Improvements, A Short Thesis Becomes More Appealing Again [View article]
    no. Article got published only intra-day after stock had already fallen a fair bit
    May 8 01:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BMC Software - Investors Receive A Fair Value For A Deteriorating Business [View article]
    While the offer does not include a large "premium" compared to Friday, it does represents a large premium compared to May of last year when Elliott Management published a presentation urging to company to sell itself to a large competitor or a private equity firm.
    May 7 12:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BMC Software - Investors Receive A Fair Value For A Deteriorating Business [View article]
    Should not take too long. Financing is in place and the regulatory review should be straightforward. The 30-day shop period is pretty standard as well.

    I was kind off surprised as well seeing shares trade at "just" $45.43, leaving another 1.8% potential. It seems like quite a lot to me
    May 7 12:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ING's Voya Unit Offers Value After A Disappointing Public Offering [View article]
    They are a bit peculiar but make sure interests are aligned. ING is a seller and would like to see a high stock price to maximize proceeds of the divestiture. The warrants are no free option, not even close. ING will be able to buy the stock for $48.75 over the next decade, at 250% of the current stock price. At current values, this whole arrangement will be only very slightly dilutive to VOYA's shareholders.
    May 6 02:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Phillips 66 - Shares Fall As Narrowing Refining Margins Outweigh An Earnings Beat [View article]
    37 billion market capitalization is based upon 620 million shares outstanding, as pointed out by phillyphan67, based on the share price of $60 at the time of writing
    May 4 12:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Significant Synergies Create Value In This New York Bank Merger [View article]
    On the other hand, shareholders in Sterling will become a 47% shareholder in the new combination. As the deal occurs at similar valuation levels, there is plenty of upside to benefit from the $34 million estimated annual synergies.

    Therefore I think shareholders in both banks stand to benefit in the long term, as the deal has the potential to create long term value. A competing bid seems unlikely given the agreement between both parties and the relative small size of the bank, in my opinion.
    Apr 5 01:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pinnacle Foods: Stay Away From This Overvalued, Overleveraged Public Offering [View article]
    The company reported total adjusted EBITDA of $426.1mn for 2012.

    Given the market capitalization of $2.6bn and the roughly $2.0bn in net debt, the firm (enterprise value) is valued at 10-11 times EBITDA which is pretty steep as well.
    Apr 3 11:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Model N - Remain On The Sidelines After An Almost 50% Jump [View article]
    There are some 21.4mn shares outstanding, of which 7.7mn are publicly tradable. The company offered 6.7mn shares at the IPO and the underwriters sold another 1mn shares by exercising their greenshoe option, under which they can sell another 15% of the originally planned size.
    Mar 27 09:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oracle: Sell-Off Creates Long-Term Entry Opportunity [View article]
    From the earnings transcript: "So over the last 12 months, we have repurchased nearly 350 million shares for a total value of $10.6 billion."

    This means the average level was around $30.30 per share, still $2 below current levels
    Mar 21 05:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oracle: Sell-Off Creates Long-Term Entry Opportunity [View article]
    Agree that Oracle cannot only blame the external environment for disappointing revenues and the company is partially to blame. Yet till now I believe the company in its story that while current revenues are falling, the "backlog" is growing as the conversion from pipeline orders into current revenues continues to drop.

    While this is debatable, some points in you arguments are not:
    1). Adding 4,000 reps while having lower revenues is not efficient, I completely agree. Managing to reduce costs by 2% on the year before, is quite impressive given the hiring spree.
    6.). For first 9 months, stock-based compensation was little over $500 million which compares to share repurchases exceeding $10 billion in the past year.
    Mar 21 04:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Genuine Parts Company's Acquisition Of Exego Group Sends Shares To All-Time Highs [View article]
    appreciate it. Good luck investing
    Mar 13 05:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Praxair - Small Acquisition Does Not Alter Investment Recommendation [View article]
    completely agree. Current yield is not that high and valuation multiples are very rich. However investors who got in a decade ago are seeing handsome returns and a very high yield on their investment.
    Feb 23 09:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Praxair - Small Acquisition Does Not Alter Investment Recommendation [View article]
    Agree. Past dividend growth has been so spectacular based on earnings growth and an increased payout ratio. With a current payout ratio of 40% you would need spectacular earnings growth as well for the next decade in order to achieve another 460% growth in dividends.
    
    Feb 23 06:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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166 Comments
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