Seeking Alpha

The Value Investor

View as an RSS Feed
View The Value Investor's Comments BY TICKER:
A, AA, AB, ABBV, ABT, ADBE, AEO, AGIO, AGN, AIG, AMAT, AMBA, AMD, AMGN, AMT, AMZN, ANF, ANFI, APA, APC, APFC, AR, ARMK, ARO, ASCA, AVGO, AVP, AZN, BA, BAC, BBEP, BBY, BCC, BEAM, BLOX, BMC, BMY, BP, BRC, BTU, BURL, CAG, CAMP, CAR, CASY, CAT, CBST, CCL, CECO, CHD, CHGG, CHK, CHTR, CHUY, CLH, CLWR, CMCSA, CMCSK, CMG, COH, CONE, COP, COST, COVS, CREE, CRM, CROX, CSCO, CTB, CTXS, CVG, CVS, CVT, CVX, CY, CYNI, DAR, DD, DDD, DE, DECK, DHR, DIS, DLTR, DMND, DRI, DRIV, DUK, DVN, EBAY, ED, ELOQ, EMC, EME, EMR, ENDP, EVHC, EXPE, EXTR, F, FANG, FAST, FATE, FB, FCX, FDO, FE, FEYE, FI, FIATY, FLTX, FOXF, FRAN, FSLR, FTR, FUEL, GE, GILD, GIMO, GIS, GLW, GM, GMCR, GNW, GOGO, GOOG, GPC, GRUB, GS, GT, GTI, HAIN, HAL, HCP, HD, HLF, HNZ, HON, HPQ, HRB, HRL, HTZ, HUN, IBM, ICPT, INT, INTC, ISRG, ITW, JAZZ, JBL, JCI, JCP, JDSU, JEC, JEF, JMBA, JNJ, JOY, KKD, KMB, KO, KORS, KR, KRFT, KS, LEAF, LEN, LKQ, LLY, LMIA, LMT, LNKD, LOW, LPX, LULU, LUV, LVS, MA, MC, MCD, MDR, MDT, MGNX, MHFI, MIDD, MNST, MO, MODN, MOLX, MONT, MRVL, MS, MSFT, MU, MUR, MVNR, NAV, NDAQ, NDLS, NFLX, NGVC, NHI, NKE, NOV, NVDA, NVGS, OLED, OMED, OPWR, ORCL, OUTR, OVTI, P, PACW, PANW, PBPB, PCLN, PEP, PF, PFE, PG, PGEM, PII, PM, PNK, PNRA, POST, POT, PSX, PX, QCOM, QLYS, RAD, RAH, RH, RHT, RIG, RKUS, RNG, ROC, ROSE, ROST, RS, RVBD, S, SABR, SBUX, SCCO, SD, SDRL, SE, SFD, SHLD, SKUL, SLB, SLXP, SMLP, SNDK, SNX, SODA, SPLK, SRPT, SSNI, SSNLF, STAY, STBFY, STL, STX, SVU, SWHC, SYK, SYY, T, TEVA, TFM, TGT, TIBX, TOL, TRLA, TSCO, TSLA, TSO, TWC, TWTR, UBNT, ULTA, UMPQ, UNS, UPS, USB, UTX, V, VALE, VEEV, VLO, VMC, VMEM, VMW, VNCE, VNR, VOYA, VRA, VRS, VRX, WAG, WDAY, WFM, WLB, WMT, WTW, WWAV, WYNN, X, XCO, XOM, XON, XONE, YUM, YUME, Z, ZNGA, ZOES, ZOLT, ZTS, ZU
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Exxon Mobil - Fair Value As Production Challenges Remain [View article]
    wise mom!
    Jan 31 01:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • McDonald's - As Comparable Sales Approach Zero, Pressure Is Building [View article]
    Tasty is arguable. While McDonald's offers relatively cheap food in the US versus its competitors, this is certainly not the case in many other parts of the world.
    Jan 31 01:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AT&T - Competition, Leverage And Cash Flow Pressure Limit Appeal [View article]
    With such great amounts of money involved there are some items which can indeed move the needle for the FCF. T already cited taxes as a candidate to impact FCF.
    Jan 31 01:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AT&T - Competition, Leverage And Cash Flow Pressure Limit Appeal [View article]
    Of course they will cut/suspend repurchases over dividends, to save their "aristocrat" title.
    Jan 31 01:03 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Lockheed Martin - Strong Shareholder Payouts Have Driven Returns, Limiting Current Appeal [View article]
    Indeed great company, but buy when the market pushes the price down. Let's not forget they have risen 60% over the past year.
    Jan 31 01:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Boeing - Is A Cautious Guidance The Start Of Profit Taking? [View article]
    That would be smart, but frankly illegal I believe. Of course this can't be proved.
    Jan 30 10:06 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook - Mobile, ARPU And Engagement Continue To Drive Momentum [View article]
    I think we fully agree.

    Indeed I used some rosy assumptions, to arrive at a earnings multiple in the low 20s for 2015. And indeed that valuation + aggressive assumptions don't pass my own investment standards. As such I don't have any position at the current level as I believe the "fair value" range could be very wide, indeed between roughly $40-$80.

    Anything low/higher would warrant a further investigation in my opinion to check the underlying assumptions for a possible long/short position.
    Jan 30 04:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook - Mobile, ARPU And Engagement Continue To Drive Momentum [View article]
    Fully agree.

    Irrespective of taxes and limited growth potential in terms of new users, you have to give FB credits for ARPU, especially in North America. Generating over $6 on a quarterly basis, or $25 per user per annum is very significant.

    What the future will bring in terms of engagement, ARPU, global ARPU etc remain unknown with many uncertainties. All I did was to sketch a potential road path.
    Jan 30 04:34 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Comcast: Little Potential Despite Strong Momentum And Possible Industry Consolidation [View article]
    First of all, thank you for being a reader of my articles.

    Comcast is quite an established name so for them to grow much quicker than the market/economy is difficult, the reason why I believe forecasts of future sales are not that interesting for such a company.

    The premium valuation is driven by growth based on premium pricing to an important extent. All I am saying is that internet + premium pricing make it a very real possibility that ComCast's role in 10 years is much diminished if they fail to adapt accordingly, let alone the pressure on the revenues and earnings, which could be dangerous if leverage continues to pick up.

    So all of this good news combined with long term threats make it easy for me to pass.
    Jan 30 01:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kimberly-Clark - Growth And Dividends At A 'Full' Price [View article]
    I personally like much myself but again 2013's momentum has been a bit strong to like it at current levels.
    Jan 30 01:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intuitive Surgical - Uncertainty Remains As No Outlook Is Issued For 2014 [View article]
    Fair point

    Not saying that an activist player would have major shots to improve operations, yet any "underperforming" name is in play in today's environment with so many activist players and financial resources being available.

    Some improvements could indeed be the more pro-active stance in terms of criticism and FDA dealings. There are not "traditional" tools available like divestitures etc.
    Jan 29 01:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lockheed Martin - Strong Shareholder Payouts Have Driven Returns, Limiting Current Appeal [View article]
    Don't do it just for the dividends. This time last year shares traded at $90. If shares were to fall $60 to those levels it would cost you over 10 years to recoup those losses!
    Jan 29 09:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kimberly-Clark - Growth And Dividends At A 'Full' Price [View article]
    Sure, that's the point I am making. General rough market conditions can also lead to a "modest" sell-off in quality names like KMB, which then offers a great opportunity.
    Jan 29 01:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • US Steel: Subject To Market Despite Carnegie Project Improvements [View article]
    I guess we agree on one thing for sure. Ensuring profitability in all conditions is not possible, especially not in steel.
    Jan 29 01:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • US Steel: Subject To Market Despite Carnegie Project Improvements [View article]
    Agree, but I guess management continues to have hope that this time it will be different, while the lagging continues. Even ArcelorMittal made huge mistakes taking on too much debt.
    Jan 29 01:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
1,092 Comments
242 Likes