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  • Chevron - Caltex Equity Sale Increases Liquidity, As Cash Outflows Continue At A Billion Per Month [View article]
    The $2bn quarterly estimate included both upstream and downstream and comes before $2bn in annual ¨other¨ charges. By now I reckon that quarterly operating profits come in at $1.5bn, indeed less than the dividend bill of $2bn per quarter.
    Apr 2, 2015. 12:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chevron - Caltex Equity Sale Increases Liquidity, As Cash Outflows Continue At A Billion Per Month [View article]
    I suspect that you are looking at a wrong listing. Try ASX:CTX instead.
    Apr 2, 2015. 12:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Winnebago Industries - Short-Term Headwinds, Long-Term Appeal [View article]
    Shortage, same as Thor. Often mentioned issue in the conference calls.
    Apr 1, 2015. 03:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cal-Maine Foods: Good Times Continue, I Am Cautious Amidst Emerging Headwinds [View article]
    Thanks, I have the same feelings.
    Apr 1, 2015. 02:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Winnebago Industries - Short-Term Headwinds, Long-Term Appeal [View article]
    mostly mentioning, small concerns however.

    The comparisons are y-o-y which should cancel out most of the seasonal impacts.

    The $30 target if all works well is based on ¨market¨ multiples after the market is now assigning a low multiple to the company's earnings. It also happens to be the level from which shares have fallen last year.
    Apr 1, 2015. 11:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Five Below - Appeal Improves As Growth Continues [View article]
    Last items date back from January following a quick search.

    If any damages will be awarded, I will assume that they will hit the individuals involved personally.
    Apr 1, 2015. 09:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chesapeake Energy - Finally Some Good News, Too Early To Go Bottom-Fishing [View article]
    Very true words.
    Apr 1, 2015. 03:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SanDisk: Troubles Continue To Intensify, Awaiting The Release Of Official Results [View article]
    current levels would be fair value if the business is flat/up slightly yoy in 2016

    trouble is that mgmt has no visibility. I am very curious to the buybacks which have undoubtedly taken place in recent weeks. Acceleration in buybacks at +$80s would be a bad sign, in that case mgmt has no clue about the fair value.
    Mar 31, 2015. 12:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Olin - Compelling Math Behind A Huge Deal [View article]
    Hi,
    I had a quick look back at the KA Steel deal. The synergy estimate of $35mn on sales of $435mn has been quite aggressive indeed.

    While we cannot simply compare these deals, the $200mn in synergies from combining a $2.2bn and $4.8bn business seems more reasonable to me. That said the number could be on the high side if you divide the synergy estimates over OLNs sales.

    I guess that pricing power is indeed a big portion of the rationale as well, being hard to specify in terms of synergies. The deal presentation mentioned possibilities for $300mn synergies including revenue synergies/opportunities. The improved pricing can perhaps also be seen given that shares of other players (AXLL for instance) had a nice jump.

    For the $40 target to work out $200mn in synergies are certainly required. I guess that shares can easily hold onto current levels in case mgmt has overpromised and will only demonstrate $100mn in synergies orso.

    Time will tell.
    Mar 31, 2015. 11:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Winnebago Industries - Short-Term Headwinds, Long-Term Appeal [View article]
    Very fair and good conclusion. I feel the same.
    Mar 31, 2015. 10:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Winnebago Industries - Short-Term Headwinds, Long-Term Appeal [View article]
    There appears no easy fix other than boosting ASP. THO is in the same situation.
    Mar 31, 2015. 10:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Olin - Compelling Math Behind A Huge Deal [View article]
    Thanks, good info
    Mar 30, 2015. 12:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Carnival - This Ship Has Sailed, The Good News Has Already Been Priced In [View article]
    Some people do not pay in USD. Of course lower fuel and Cuba will be drivers, just worried about the degree by which the market is extrapolating these benefits into the price.
    Mar 30, 2015. 10:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Olin - Compelling Math Behind A Huge Deal [View article]
    Given the leverage incurred, I doubt significant dividend hikes are on the table in the coming year.
    Mar 30, 2015. 08:33 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Olin - Compelling Math Behind A Huge Deal [View article]
    I wrote the article/investigated the issue following the same frustration as you have. Coverage from traditional media outlets is not that great in these areas.
    Mar 30, 2015. 08:25 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
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