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  • WhiteWave Foods - Compelling Acquisition Of Earthbound Farm [View article]
    haven't seen the new yet, so don't know how big the news could be. I'll try to take a look later this weekend.
    Jan 25 01:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • eBay - Icahn's Next Target, Has More Upside [View article]
    Well Icahn sometimes works in steps I believe.

    He owns 0.82% reported in eBay, which might be upped to 2% according to reports. This would value his stake close to $1.5bn.

    His Apple stake was upped to $3bn which is bigger in absolute terms, but means he "only" holds 0.6%.
    Jan 25 01:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • eBay - Icahn's Next Target, Has More Upside [View article]
    I believe you commented on the wrong article. No word mentioned about yelp.
    Jan 25 01:50 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AMD: As Graphics And Visual Business Overtakes Computing, Better Days Are Ahead [View article]
    Thanks I really appreciate that. While I don't have an interest in AMD, I'll do my very best to be objective in all my writings.
    Jan 24 01:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • eBay - Icahn's Next Target, Has More Upside [View article]
    fail to see why analysts are so bearish given Icahn's excellent track record.

    Well' see.
    Jan 24 11:20 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • eBay - Icahn's Next Target, Has More Upside [View article]
    Fair point.

    The reason I took a more conservative 8 times multiple instead of 12 was the lower earnings of PayPal

    EBAY overall made around 19% after tax in the past quarter (probably eBay market's place is more profitable than PayPal)

    If I just take MC's latest quarterly release I see 40% after tax margins.

    So it makes sense for me to discount PayPal's valuation given the probably still inferior profitability while growth is very solid.
    Jan 24 11:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cree: Staying On The Right Path [View article]
    Hi, let me react
    Gross margins for the quarter were 37.5%, guided to improve to 37.7% for the current quarter.
    Note that I was talking about operating margin expansion, not gross margin expansion to fuel earnings. While Cree has seen gross margin compression (down 100bps on year), it guides for 20bp sequential improvement in the quarter. For earnings growth, I believe margins expansion should come from leveraging R&D, SG&A costs, not gross margin expansion.
    If you noticed the 60 watt down $3 at HD, I am sure Cree must be aware of that and factored that into their forecast.
    Jan 24 10:56 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • eBay - Icahn's Next Target, Has More Upside [View article]
    Thanks for the comment.

    I intentionally added "perhaps" otherwise I have to prove the direct relationship which I can not.

    The Icahn proposal was downplayed by many analysts yesterday, downplaying his logic. The more I read about it, the more I have to favor Icahn's point of view.
    Jan 24 10:15 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Freeport-McMoRan - Well Positioned For Operating Leverage In 2014 [View article]
    Thanks.

    My opinion is that management is realizing the reliance upon Indonesia, looking to reduce the exposure there fast, at least in relative terms. The purchases last year were quite dodgy, but appear to be working out ok-ish for now.
    Jan 24 08:52 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Johnson Controls - Margin Expansion And Organic Sales Growth Are Future Growth Drivers [View article]
    JCI reported yesterday with a relative soft outlook.
    Jan 24 01:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Pacific Corporation - Fair Exit Point After Excellent Returns In Recent Years [View article]
    All I am saying that every -15/+15% undervaluation/overval... is not enough for me to either call a deal a great deal or a bad deal.

    While I agree the offer could also be in their low-fifties, it is not upto us to decide. Either try to contact management, don't tender or find a higher bidder!
    Jan 24 01:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • CalAmp - Too Strong Momentum On The Back Of Significant Potential Growth [View article]
    As per the article:
    "Trading around $26 per share, the market values CalAmp at $925 million. This values operating assets of the firm at around $900 million. As such, operating assets are valued at 3.8 times annual revenues and 75 times expected GAAP earnings."

    The 26 times PE -ratio people have been talking about must be non-GAAP or so. Non-GAAP is fine for truly on-time items, but not for "sustainable" expenses and stock-based compensation.
    Jan 24 01:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Pacific Corporation - Fair Exit Point After Excellent Returns In Recent Years [View article]
    Well, what about the usage of EBITDA multiples in this case.

    EBITDA gives a great clue about cash flows, assuming you no longer need cash to invest in the business going forward. So the earnings are inflated by the deprecation + amortization to get a better clue about the cash flow, not about the earnings valuation.

    Based on earnings the offer values the company at 17 times "peak/high" earnings which is a fair level, especially with earnings seen down for 2014.

    what about the average industry price-earnings deal. It all depends on the relative usage of leverage of American Pacific vs. industry and the depreciation charges as well.
    Jan 23 12:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Johnson & Johnson - Solid Quarter For This Well-Led Diversified Healthcare Conglomerate [View article]
    Thank you for your kind words and happy investing
    Jan 23 11:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Pacific Corporation - Fair Exit Point After Excellent Returns In Recent Years [View article]
    Sure 10 times EBITDA, or $450 million is quite a chunk more than $392 million. I guess the price would come down closer to $53 on that metric.

    I have 2 key observations to make, while not saying that you are wrong:
    -The stock and business had a great run, how truly sustainable is this?
    -Especially as 2014 EBITDA is seen down quite a bit from 2013?

    I am just saying the offer is fair. Perhaps fair is a better word at 8-9 times EBITDA range. If it traded <7 times EBITDA I would call it perhaps a steal and unfair, while anything >10 times EBITDA would be a great price.
    Jan 23 11:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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