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Latest comments  |  Highest rated
  • Freshpet - Appeal Is Increasing, But I'm Not Pulling The Trigger Yet [View article]
    I share your concerns although I recognize that some fridge based models have worked in the past/work currently.

    Therefore my rationale to only buy a small speculative position in the high single digits.
    Aug 12, 2015. 12:34 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Continental Resources - Turning Cash Flow Positive, Appeal Depends On Oil Price Recovery [View article]
    Yeah a time machine would be great;)
    Aug 12, 2015. 12:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • EOG Resources - A Relative Safe Spot In An Industry That's In Turmoil [View article]
    They recorded a $48.5mn quarterly loss.
    With 10k daily production, or 3.65mn barrels the loss would come in around $13 per barrel. This could happen as oil bounced back roughly $10 during the quarter.
    Aug 12, 2015. 11:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • EOG Resources - A Relative Safe Spot In An Industry That's In Turmoil [View article]
    I noticed that as well. Could very well be that they added hedges around $50 to see crude settle in the high-fifties by the end of the quarter.

    I have seen it with some other players as well this past quarter, as oil prices did rebound from Q1.
    Aug 12, 2015. 09:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Continental Resources - Turning Cash Flow Positive, Appeal Depends On Oil Price Recovery [View article]
    I do realize that CLR is focusing on the best wells in this environment.

    Given the 90% decline rates for many shale plays in the first year, I do not necessarily share the concerns of maintenance capex increasing that much in 2017, unless supplier costs should up. That should only really happen again if prices make a decent rebound.

    Time will tell.
    Aug 12, 2015. 09:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stay Fit And Avoid Shares Of Planet Fitness [View article]
    Two classes of shares. never trust websites which tend to only focus on one class of shares.

    Check out the s1-filings on sec.edgar.gov
    Aug 12, 2015. 02:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Continental Resources - Turning Cash Flow Positive, Appeal Depends On Oil Price Recovery [View article]
    I think your analysis is right

    Maintenance capex (keep 2016 production similar to 2015 is roughly $1.8-$2.0bn)

    Many leveraged stocks act as a call option on oil. The trouble is that you lose a lot of carry when investing in oil. In that case you are most likely better off to bet on an oil company with good economics and manageable leverage.

    The benefit which oil does not have, but some oil companies do is the incremntal efficiency at current imes. Note that CLR was breaking venin Q2 with oil around $55, this was unthinkable 1-2 years ago.
    Aug 12, 2015. 01:15 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • EOG Resources - A Relative Safe Spot In An Industry That's In Turmoil [View article]
    Of course.
    Aug 12, 2015. 01:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sprouts Farmers Market - Starting To Look Appealing As Growth Remains Solid [View article]
    I'll check it out. Good luck and keep me posted on the decision you make.
    Aug 11, 2015. 03:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sprouts Farmers Market - Starting To Look Appealing As Growth Remains Solid [View article]
    I have not

    Pro WFM: quality franchise, stronger balance sheet
    Pro SFM: good balance sheet, higher SSS, higher growth potential (smaller current store base).

    I guess I like both companies roughly equally. SFM appears a bit riskier given the smaller size yet it offers higher growth at a relative modest premium vs. WFM.

    Good luck.
    Aug 11, 2015. 02:27 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Continental Resources - Turning Cash Flow Positive, Appeal Depends On Oil Price Recovery [View article]
    No hedges included. Q2 oil pricing was stronger than Q1 across the board for energy companies.
    Aug 11, 2015. 12:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stay Fit And Avoid Shares Of Planet Fitness [View article]
    If we assume the 2025 scenario is realistic and can support a $3.5-4.0bn valuation, I require at least 15% returns per year to account for the elevated risks. This means that the current equity valaution only becomes attractive in my opinion at $800mn to $1bn.

    With nearly 100mn shares outstanding, I would not pick up shares until their fall to levels of $10, depending on the circumstances as we go.
    Aug 11, 2015. 10:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Honeywell - Elster Acquisition Is Likely To Add To Honeywell's Sound Track Record [View article]
    I largely agree

    Just because every deal is accretive with cash not earning any return does not make an acquisition necessarily good. If that would be the case, shares of traditional companies could trade at 100 times earnings and still support a 1% earnings yield which would be much better compared to cash returns.
    Aug 11, 2015. 02:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Whole Foods - Valuation Starts To Offer Appeal, Even As Growth Comes To A Standstill [View article]
    I would argue that it is even better to have for instance 3% comp growth and 0% store growth, than vice versa with respect to margins.

    SFM has been facing a similar pullback, as its comps are still positive in the mid single digits.
    Aug 11, 2015. 02:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Emerson Electric- Consider It Solved? [View article]
    Well is rebounded yesterday a bit in line with the market.

    I am just looking for a list containing likes of EMR, but also MMM/WFM and some others which start to offer nice levels if shares take another 10% tumble.
    Aug 11, 2015. 02:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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