The-Yellow-Rose-Street-Beat

An In-Depth Look at Solar Stocks

its value. Typo...

An In-Depth Look at Solar Stocks

Some replies:

First and foremost I want to make a brief comment to GH. How is bashing Seeking Alpha helpful to anyone? There are some very intelligent posts on here. Not all... but some very good ones. In fact, when I am trying to learn about a company I am not familiar with I first look at the charts, then the key statistics/analyst estimates, and then go directly to the financial blogs in yahoo. Many are Seeking Alpha articles.

The blogs offer the retail investor a deeper look... if you don't like, don't agree, or already know everything written in them then don't read them! However, what you will not tend to find is unwarranted, self-driven bashing (often the case in message boards). Also, it is not the voice of "authority"... which is a good thing because many of the analysts I believe have their own agendas. The ISRG downgrade at 250? I called that a bluff (on my site) because I know ISRG has a solid business and I know that the stock keeps getting downgraded by some analyst for the same reason and then rises before earnings. It is up 10% since the "downgrade"... a nice little trade.

Everyone has to be able to think for themselves here. If you're looking for an "authority figure" you will either have to pay them a lot of money (and they may still be wrong) or you have to wonder if they are really acting in your best interest. The Seeking Alpha articles include thoughtful information in a concise place. Not bad.

Ok... now that I got that out of my system...

Aalen: Conference calls are like body language: it tells you the tone of the conference, how people feel about the company, and whether people really are impressed or not. The TSL CC is a perfect example. When GS asks questions I listen. When they gave a disapproving hint about the cash flow generation that meant TSL was in trouble at least short-term. The downgrade did not surprise me bc of the CC.

The CC also tells you about the management, details, so much there

Puerlfan:
Excellent points. This is why an article like this can be valuable... their are people who know thin film and other facets of the solar industry like no one else. I have to admit the prices of FSLR and ENER had me focus more on silicon based then thin film... however when one looks at the dependability and cash flow of the thin films (FSLR at least) it becomes clear why institutions have been holding them more so far overall.

frflyr: Solar will be there but don't discount wind or any of the others... There's a reason T.Boone Pickens is investing so much in wind farms... also nice addition with the info

Others: If I didn't mention your stock in detail it is because I chose to look at a reasonable group of stocks and focus primarily on those that are currently profitable. I expect that there will eventually be pruning and consolidation in this industry and that it is still too early for anyone to tell how it will work out. For now all are in play... solid fundamentals and cash flow are pluses... but so is new technology.

Overall... if this article taught you anything you did not know or made you think then it was successful in its aim. Think of Seeking Alpha and other blog sites as an investment community and a place to generate and share ideas... not the final stop in decision making... and I think you will be more likely to unlock it's value and succeed.

An In-Depth Look at Solar Stocks

I will try to answer some of the other questions posed this weekend

An In-Depth Look at Solar Stocks

GH:
It's interesting that seeking alpha chose this title for the article. The original article on my blog is titled: Long Term Bull Market-Solar. I am appreciative of Seeking Alpha for creating a forum to express and share ideas... however I personally would not have been quite as bold in my title...

I have a background in biochemistry (UCLA)and actually am best acquainted with the bioscience and pharma... although I have used my scientific knowledge and thinking to sharpen focus on broader swabs of the market. You will find the science breakdown included and also that as I mention this is not the "be all end all article", if there is such a thing, but intended as an investigative glimpse that is meant as a foundation to be built upon over time. I already added a subsequent follow up article on the issue of cash flow and the GS downgrade of TSL at the end of the article (under top posts)-LT Bull Market Solar. I expect to add more over time as I see solar being around for a long time to come...

A Missed Opportunity in Canadian Solar

I never buy a co. without listening to at least one CC. I listened to CSIQ's in early Spring (somewhere around there... when the stock was at 19) and I could tell immediately that this was a top flight company. That it would double in a few months... that I didn't know,,, but so much can be gleaned from conference calls... time and time again.