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  • Analysts Hate BlackBerry, Which Is Exactly Why You Should Buy [View article]
    Just my two cents, if any investor is worried about a market correction, they should start allocating a position to John Chen's Blackberry, and Prem Watsa's Fairfax.

    Blackberry is priced so low, it's constantly trading back and forth between traders, scared longs, and aggressive shorts. It trades on news, and rarely trades with the market, since so many opinions battle it out each day, there's hardly time!

    Fairfax on the other hand is a well run company that made a massive (almost comically large) bet on a market correction taking place. The same bet he placed before the crash. As a very poignant article posed the question "Is he trying to catch lightning in a bottle twice?". Maybe, but if you agree that a corrections coming, there is hardly any place safer than in Prem's lovingly option-filled arms.

    On the other hand, Blackberry could go bankrupt, and Fairfax could sit on a massive losing trade for a looooong time... Hence... No position.
    Apr 3, 2014. 10:46 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Analysts Hate BlackBerry, Which Is Exactly Why You Should Buy [View article]
    I think it's more likely they told Chen to "do whatever it takes to recover Blackberry, including posting terrible numbers... If the public and other institutions can't see the value we'll gladly increase our stake each time, so long as there is a recovery happening".

    That's the thing, Prem Watsa is loaded with cash expecting a crash in a overly valued market, they have the spare capacity to purchase entire companies. Waiting for the stocks to become cheap during the turn around, then selling when the company recovers... I mean that's classic Prem. A hardcore value investor.

    Placing a turnaround specialist like Chen and tempting him with free rain to do whatever is necessary... And Prem gets to load up on weakness... I mean, it's a win-win if I've ever seen one.
    Apr 3, 2014. 10:37 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Opower: A Utilities Derivative With Proven Growth And The Potential For So Much More [View article]
    Awesome opportunity and business strategy. Just need the right price, post-IPO is always a heck of a risk.
    Apr 2, 2014. 09:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 6 Basic MLP Lessons From The Q1-14 Data [View article]
    Great article, lots to think about
    Apr 2, 2014. 09:20 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Bank Of America's Future Is Brighter Than It Was On Wednesday [View article]
    They have not confirmed what they will be buying, they have the option to retire warrants or common stock. We won't know until they start retiring what they chose.
    Mar 28, 2014. 01:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Letter To John Hempton From A 'Clueless Short Seller' [View article]
    Why would closed territories be unfair? I was just wondering if this type of company could operate under that kind of environment.

    One of the author's points is that the market is being over-saturated, and none of the consultants make a living wage (and used their 99% gone before 2 years to back that up). I was just wondering, would HLF be profitable if they did limit their sales territories to allow their people to make a decent wage without the focus on growing the number of people selling...

    The idea being, if they would still be profitable and have growth opportunities, then it's definitely not a short, even if you think they are being dishonest.

    On the other hand, if they couldn't be operating under the worst-case regulator-enforced scenario... Then yeah, this is a short if you thought the FTC would crack down on them.
    Mar 26, 2014. 12:59 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Letter To John Hempton From A 'Clueless Short Seller' [View article]
    A P/E of 30 to 40, and one hell of an upward trend to get there from the 11 it's at now... And with earnings growing 15%, on the back of 9% revenue growth, I mean those numbers aren't bad, but good luck.

    I'm not saying it's a bad deal at the current price, but I'll be damned if I paid over $65 a share on this... And I wouldn't hold it waiting for $150... Then again, I'm not long, so fair enough.
    Mar 26, 2014. 12:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Letter To John Hempton From A 'Clueless Short Seller' [View article]
    If HLF was regulated to operate like a legitimate business opportunity (with regional protection for franchisee's) would they be able to become profitable, or would it collapse since they need millions of sellers finding every single person willing to purchase?

    I mean, if they changed their business model to a franchisor-franchisee model, and limited the number of HLF consultants per region, would they make any money?? If the answer is "yes, but they would be half the size they are now" then sure, short, since eventually this model would have to become the norm... Eventually unprofitable people would stop selling and the market would reach equillibrium.

    But if the business opportunity still stands, with growth prospects, operating in that way... And they are just growing rapidly using a dishonest sales tactic... I can't see a short case. When the parties over they can still operate the way a company should operate... And potentially become just as profitable with their consultants earning a living wage.
    Mar 25, 2014. 02:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gimme Some Sugar: Reasons For Rising Sugar Prices And 3 ETF Plays [View article]
    I was going to make a comment along the same lines, you beat me to it haha.
    Mar 18, 2014. 10:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Utility And Infrastructure CEF Report: 6%+ Yields And Deep Value [View article]
    Commenting to help me find this and read later... Cause I'm awesome.
    Mar 5, 2014. 12:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • iBillionaire To Launch New Guru ETF: How Does It Compare? [View article]
    I don't know, as a foreign investor that wants some exposure to the US, with a good chunk already in the S&P500, investing in a special mid-cap fund that's actively managed to oppose my generic returns kinda speaks to me.

    Why do you think these ETF's would flop? As long as they produce some good returns they should keep growing. Even if they don't attract the investor interest, so long as the assets hold-up the investor shouldn't be in too bad of shape.
    Feb 21, 2014. 01:12 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Ignite Your Portfolio With This Radioactive Pair Trade: Short Uranium Resources And Long Energy Fuels [View article]
    Controlling the only conventional uranium mill makes it a great takeover target for Cameco to enhance US domestic production synergies.
    Jul 31, 2013. 01:47 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A High Income, Lower Risk CEF Portfolio For Retirees [View article]
    Thanks for compiling this information in this article, I'm a big fan of CEF's, though I mostly trade them in Canada, once I build an American portfolio I'll likley start with CEF's.
    Jul 24, 2013. 01:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix: 8 Massive Warning Signs [View article]
    People that professionally short the market are typically better investors, since you need an iron stomach with the ability to lose more than 100% of your investment.

    In other words you need to be 110% sure that your hypothesis is correct, and you should be better at rationalizing it than the majority of the market.

    Reading short articles is the best way to spot stocks to avoid (and the rationalization and metrics to watch in current holdings to make sure they are still good investments).

    Calling out shorts as casino gamblers vastly underestimates the time, research and knowledge required to successfully navigate the world of shorting stocks, and the valuable role they play in long investors research.

    Anyone who is long a stock with a well-reasoned short case as strong as Netflix should have an answer for every criticism, a personal justification for the weaknesses pointed out. Anyone who cannot should not be long the stock. And anyone unaware of short sellers opinions should not be investing.
    Jul 22, 2013. 09:00 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Power Financial Corporation: 4.4% Yielding Conglomerate In Canada [View article]
    Fairfax is a closer investment to Berkshire than Power Financial, in my opinion. That's not to indicate Power isn't a great company, but Fairfax is a strong company as well, with a closer business model, with a better financial manager (though they are ruthlessly conservative, which I think is a major plus depending on the type of investor you are).
    Jul 17, 2013. 12:51 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment