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Theodor Trampe  

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  • Salesforce.com (CRM): FQ2 EPS of $0.42 beats by $0.03. Revenue of $731.6M (+34% Y/Y) beats by $3.3M. Expects FQ3 revenue of $773M-$777M and EPS of $0.31-$0.32 vs. consensus of $771.3M and $0.34. Expects FY13 (ends Jan. '13) revenue of $3.025B-$3.035B and EPS of $1.48-$1.51 vs. consensus of $3.02B and $1.49. Shares -2.6% AH. (PR[View news story]
    "Q2 GAAP net loss per share was ($0.07), and non-GAAP diluted earnings per share was $0.42. The company's non-GAAP results exclude the effects of $85 million in stock-based compensation expense, $20 million in amortization of purchased intangibles, and $6 million in net non-cash interest expense related to the company's convertible senior notes."

    Apparently expenses aren't expenses!
    Aug 23, 2012. 05:13 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's (AAPL) TV and set-top ambitions remain bogged in a morass of pay-TV industry intransigence, Bloomberg reports. Points of disagreement include Apple's control of the user interface; its ability to sell directly to consumers rather than leasing hardware; and (of course) the striking of new content deals. However, Apple has reportedly compromised some on the content issue, and is said to be "furthest along" in its talks with Time Warner Cable (TWC). (Eddy Cue) (WSJ reports: I, II, III[View news story]
    There's always somebody out there that wants to stifle innovation.

    The Bloomberg article points out that iTunes could take off because record labels were in a terrible position about 10 years ago. Give it a couple of years and the cable companies will probably be doing the same.

    If they keep trying to maintain the status quo then the only value they can give consumers is higher bandwidth and that comes with huge capex costs in a market where consumers are itching for change and don't want to pay more.
    Sep 6, 2012. 03:29 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel (INTC -1%) spikes lower on a Bloomberg report that Apple (AAPL +1.3%) is thinking of abandoning the use of Intel's CPUs within Macs in favor of internally-developed, ARM-based processors such as the ones that power its iOS hardware. Similar reports have been around for a while[View news story]
    Hey Luke,

    Thats mostly for old boring IO controllers and such. Intel makes motherboards and has to license from ARM.

    But a lot of people don't realize that if Intel wanted to, it could get into the ARMS Race and use the architecture for mobile and compete with Nvidia and Qualcomm. They just think they have a better shot with x86
    Nov 5, 2012. 05:42 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook (FB +2.2%) is rallying today even though Oppenheimer lowered its target to $27 from $41, citing mobile concerns. A CNBC appearance by COO Sheryl Sandberg could be helping. Sandberg touted the effectiveness of Facebook's Promoted Posts product, as well as studies indicating healthy ROIs for ad campaigns. Regarding the company's display ad network plans, she claimed Facebook's ability to target narrow demographic groups would help it stand out. [View news story]
    I think of Facebook as a billboard where you can pick who you show your product to. In contrast, search advertising targets people who are actively seeking out products. It's harder to value Facebook ads because it's more difficult to see the conversion rate that impression based advertising does. So although you see a lower click rate on Facebook ads, more people will know your product exists which is never a bad thing.

    The problem lies in the fact that Facebook can't prove how much value this creates. Therefore search advertising will continue to command a price premium as it's much more similar to traditional advertising.

    So stay away from FB.
    Oct 1, 2012. 03:27 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel Inside The Next iPhone? Not Likely, But Also Not Important [View article]
    Hey Ashraf,

    I think any switch to Intel wouldn't be just because of the capacity of next gen x86.

    Apple relies a great deal on Samsung manufacturing and although Samsung claims theirs a "chinese wall" between their electronics and manufacturing arms, it isn't an extremely healthy relation. In contrast Intel has the some of the best foundries in the world with the best production processes and yields. If Apple wants to dump Samsung, Intel could work.
    Sep 6, 2012. 06:18 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Samsung (SSNLF.PK), unsurprisingly, plans to appeal its harsh legal loss to Apple (AAPL). Apple's response to the jury's verdict: "We applaud the court for finding Samsung’s behavior willful and for sending a loud and clear message that stealing isn’t right." Samsung's response: "It is unfortunate that patent law can be manipulated to give one company a monopoly over rectangles with rounded corners, or technology that is being improved every day by Samsung and other companies." (more[View news story]
    Wow that's an impressive list of validated patents!

    Let's hope that all of these companies stop bickering and either work out reasonable licensing agreement or figure out a way to innovate and put out some fresh and creative products.
    Aug 24, 2012. 11:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Talk that the September event scheduled by Amazon (AMZN) could be used to launch a highly-anticipated smartphone continues to swirl around - even though the smart money continues to bet on a Kindle refresh. If Amazon does pull a rabbit out of its hat with a smartphone announcement, a September unveiling makes perfect sense in front of the holiday season and the iPhone 5 launch. [View news story]
    The smartphone space is getting really crowded now. The tablet is a much better tool to market Amazon Prime & Instant Video which was their original goal. Nobody watches video on their cellphone.

    If they did jump the shark on this move they will be stretching themselves very thin.
    Aug 24, 2012. 10:56 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is It Time To Jump Into This Beaten Down Stock Or Sit On The Sidelines? [View article]
    Regardless of if their a turn-around or not. A current earnings yield of 14% means they can buy back a ton of shares and issue dividends so that you could potentially see a decent ROI even if their top-line falls and their business slowly dies off.

    The only concern would be if they misallocate capital to try to stay relevant which seems to be the case with many companies in decline. Keep an eye on acquisitions.

    Good luck.
    Aug 23, 2012. 06:32 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is It Time To Jump Into This Beaten Down Stock Or Sit On The Sidelines? [View article]
    Unless revenue declines and expenses increase. There's a expectation for this and that's why the stock is so cheap.
    Aug 23, 2012. 05:10 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dell (DELL -2.3%) is making new multi-year lows in response to HP's FQ3 report, adding to the bludgeoning the company saw yesterday due to its own earnings report. Other PC-related names are also lower: INTC -1.7%. MSFT -1.3%. AMD -2.2%.  The consumer and enterprise receptions to Windows 8, which has received very mixed (I, II) initial reviews, are now more important than ever. [View news story]
    I think the biggest concern with Windows 8 right now is whether people can accept the change to a start screen. Microsoft is trying to make the best of both worlds by having a touch friendly OS with a traditional background.

    For the OEMs there is definitely some pain right now. I think pretty soon we won't even consider Dell an OEM because of their refocus on services. HP is also a joke and I don't think anyone takes their product line seriously anymore.

    The title for this "Top News" is a little misleading. Innovative OEM's like Lenovo are still making a killing. Look for the Thinkpad Tablet 2 crushing the enterprise space: http://vrge.co/SZiYjW

    Acer also has a great windows 8 launch lineup coming although it appears more consumer focused.

    And price points on some of these Win8 ARM tablets will be coming in at 300 dollars!
    Aug 23, 2012. 02:37 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel: Enough Of The Nonsense [View article]
    Hey Ashraf,
    Great article. I agree with you that ARMH doesn't deserve its premium especially considering the fact that they're merely a licensing company with no balance sheet to fall back on if Intel can secure a foothold in the mobile market.

    I was wondering what you see as a catalyst for a drop in ARMH within the next few months? Haswell does look great, but it's not coming out until June and then the market won't be tested until the holiday season with a new iPad (and potentially a Surface Pro). So why not wait until the Spring/Summer to open a position?

    Personally, I'm attracted to buying a Jan13 OTM put financed by a OTM Call sometime in the next few months.
    Feb 11, 2013. 04:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pitney Bowes (PBI): Q3 EPS of $0.47 misses by $0.02. Revenue of $1.2B (-6.5% Y/Y) misses by $60M. (PR[View news story]
    So the question is, do you think this ageing company can reinvent itself?

    On the financial side, it's looking pretty interesting. With 30% short/float and a 12% dividend yield, it seems like there's gotta be some short covering in the next couple of months. I certainly don't think the stock can get hammered that much more considering analyst and company guidance.
    Nov 4, 2012. 05:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • "Are Disney and George Lucas hiding something?" New York Magazine's Kevin Roose asks, suspecting the timing of the deal announcement in the midst of Hurricane Sandy means the deal is a dud: "If Disney knows it overpaid, or even senses it might have, then burying the news makes all the sense in the world." Frustration at an analyst conference call added to the conspiracy meme. [View news story]
    This article doesn't take enough variables into account when coming to its aggressive conclusion. The value of the IP from Star Wars and Indiana Jones is amazing. Beyond just movie grosses, you have merchandise and licensing to take into account. For one, Disney doesn't have to pay anyone to have a Star Wars ride at one of their theme parks now.

    Also, obviously we don't know the financials, but LucasFilm is more than just IP, it includes a special effects and computer design company.
    Oct 31, 2012. 10:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Risk Speculating On Consumer Electronics [View article]
    Thanks.

    Exactly, its always a wait and see game.
    Oct 28, 2012. 04:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • OpenTable (OPEN - $985M market cap) and Millennial Media (MM - $1.12B market cap) were among the companies Yahoo (YHOO) "appeared to show interest" in buying when pitched on deals by bankers, a source tells Reuters. Also reportedly piquing Yahoo's interest were PubMatic, a provider of ad monetization services for Web publishers, and Turn, a developer of ad targeting apps. Yahoo, which is giving back 85% of its Alibaba proceeds to shareholders, is said to be eying targets that can improve either user engagement or ad monetization. [View news story]
    This doesn't give any insight into what Yahoo wants its strategic vision to be. Still not a good reason to be long YHOO.
    Oct 22, 2012. 01:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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