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Theodore Cohen

 
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  • Vical: TransVax Therapeutic Vaccine Phase 2 Trial Results Published [View article]
    What insider purchases were those to which you are referring? All I see are option grants at the beginning of the year.

    That said, I think the stock is under distribution, and it could well dip below $3.00 if the markets go 'south' for whatever reason. I doubt we'll see $1.80 again unless the Allovectin trial results are a total failure.

    A look at the Weekly chart suggests that barring failure of the trial, the stock might bottom in any washout around $2.80 to $3.00.

    I sold half of my position at $4.30 and above, and would step back in below $3.00 to add. But that decision is based on MY situation and risk tolerance. Consult your financial advisor. I never have made any Buy or Sell recommendations to my readers in any of my articles. I only have indicated whether or not I currently held a position in a stock I was discussing.

    Ted
    Jan 26 08:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Immunotherapy Cancer Trials With Key Data Due In 2012 [View article]
    I understand that, JP. And as I said, "Whether the Phase II data will be repeated or exceeded in the ongoing, pivotal Phase III Allovectin trial for which the data should be available in mid-2012 is the $64,000 question." Like you, I await the results.

    Ted
    Jan 26 07:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Immunotherapy Cancer Trials With Key Data Due In 2012 [View article]
    I'll be here, John, regardless of what happens.

    You still haven't answered my questions.

    Ted
    Jan 26 07:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Immunotherapy Cancer Trials With Key Data Due In 2012 [View article]
    One other note, John...from Slide 8 of the same presentation I cited above (here's the URL again)

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    Note the following regarding administration, and in particular, the first point under 'Direct intratumoral injection:'

    Direct intratumoral injection
     Select up to 10 target tumor lesions to follow
     Repeat injections into same single lesion
     Cycle = 1/wk x 6 wks + 2 wks observation
     Measure response in all target lesions

    Outpatient setting
     No pre-treatment or post-treatment care
     Well-tolerated in multiple clinical trials
     Minimal impact on quality of life

    Allovectin WAS being injected directly into tumors. You stated that '...the shrinkage of tumors is still a very big question mark.' Now, look at the three slides I cited above and tell me, in all three cases, that you do not see tumor shrinkage. In particular, I assert that the shrinkage of the tumors on the legs of the 58 year old female with extensive in-transit metastases in her right leg is nothing less than astounding.

    Tell me what you see. How would you describe it? How would you describe what you see in the other two cases shown? (By the way, Seeking Alpha would not allow me to present these data in my paper because they considered the photographs too graphic for their readers.)

    Ted
    Jan 25 03:37 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Immunotherapy Cancer Trials With Key Data Due In 2012 [View article]
    John aacc,

    I'd be careful about using such strident language regarding Vical and the results to date for it's Allovectin treatment.

    The fact is, when you look at the results of the Phase 2 data, which I discussed in a recent article (see URL below), the median survival time could not even be determined for the 12 responders after an elapsed time of 80 months because so few had died.

    http://bit.ly/wX2rF6

    Here's what I said:

    "That said, 11.8% [15] of the patients treated with Allovectin achieved an objective response. (Again, more than 60% of those in the Allovectin arm did not complete more than one treatment cycle.) But what is even more impressive to my mind is the fact that at the time these data were published, the median survival could not be determined for the responders. Put another way, less than half of the responders had died at the time the study was published (80 months from trial inception). At the least, even the most bearish Vical analyst would have to begrudgingly have to admit that the evidences bode well for Allovectin prolonging the survival of skin cancer patients.

    "Vical has made some key changes in the Phase III trial that should improve the outcome even further:

    "Only chemo-naïve patients were enrolled in Phase III, which represented a majority of the responders in Phase II

    "RECIST criteria were relaxed to allow patients to stay on the trial through at least two treatment cycles, even with progressive disease, as long as the progression was not clinically significant

    "The primary endpoint measures response rate at 24 weeks or more after randomization, by which time chemotherapy responders typically progress

    "Whether the Phase II data will be repeated or exceeded in the ongoing, pivotal Phase III Allovectin trial for which the data should be available in mid-2012 is the $64,000 question."

    If you aren't squeamish and want to see what Allovectin can do for a patient, John, go to this site and look at the pictures taken for the three patients shown:

    http://bit.ly/w2Rqca

    Look at slides 11, 12, and 13. If the Phase 3 study confirms such outcomes in patients who respond to Allovectin, I think the FDA will find the evidence for safety and efficacy compelling.

    Ted

    Full Disclosure: I own Vical. I am holding at these levels, given what I see in the Daily and Weekly price charts.
    Jan 25 03:20 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Immunotherapy Cancer Trials With Key Data Due In 2012 [View article]
    Just a minor, but important, note.

    It's not really correct nor helpful to talk about Provenge as a treatment that '...typically adds "only" 4-5 months to the victims' survival...'

    The treatment was approved by the FDA based on a 4.1-month MEDIAN survival advantage. Or put another way, the pivotal IMPACT trial of Sipuleucel-T showed an extension of 4.1 months median survival time in the treatment arm beyond the control arm. (By the way, the survival of the placebo cohort was 'corrupted' by the fact that 80% of those in that cohort also received a frozen form a Provenge ('Frovenge'), which conferred some of Provenge's life-extending benefits to those individuals. There is evidence, in fact, that the TRUE median life extension benefit to Provenge actually may lie in the range 8-12 months. A paper to be presented in early February at 2012 GU will address this matter.)

    That said, perhaps it would be better, when talking about Provenge, to refer to a 38% improvement in 3-year survival and/or a 22.5% improvement in risk of dying.

    Further, the odds of a patient treated with Sipuleucel-T surviving at 3 years was about one in three comparing to the odds of about one in five for an untreated patient. This level of efficacy coupling with a mild side effect profile [mild flu-like symptoms] was remarkable when compared to the current standard of care, the chemotherapy Taxotere, which showed only a 2.5 months median improvement with possibly debilitating side effects.

    I enjoyed your article.

    Ted
    Jan 25 01:28 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dendreon's Presentation At JPMorgan Healthcare Conference: 3 Things Of Interest [View article]
    Interesting speculation, indeed. The fact remains, the closer they come to cash flow breakeven ($500M annual revenue), the more attractive they become. I think they will reach this point 2Q12.

    Ted
    Jan 22 04:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dendreon's Presentation At JPMorgan Healthcare Conference: 3 Things Of Interest [View article]
    Thanks, ananymous#12...we just had a dear friend diagnosed with stage 4 cancer. There's probably nothing more devastating for a human being to hear from their doctor.

    Ted
    Jan 22 06:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dendreon's Presentation At JPMorgan Healthcare Conference: 3 Things Of Interest [View article]
    Thanks, all...it takes a village (;>)

    Ted
    Jan 21 01:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dendreon's Presentation At JPMorgan Healthcare Conference: 3 Things Of Interest [View article]
    Hi, and thanks for the answer. I went to the company's IR site, and I didn't see an announcement. So, all I could add to the conversation was last year's date as a way of providing some guidance.

    I don't mind an occasional question like this on the stocks I follow, and I do appreciate the information you provided.

    Take care.

    Ted
    Jan 21 07:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dendreon's Presentation At JPMorgan Healthcare Conference: 3 Things Of Interest [View article]
    Is should be early March, but hasn't been announced yet. Here's the announcement from last year:

    http://bit.ly/A9Gex7

    Ted
    Jan 21 07:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dendreon's Presentation At JPMorgan Healthcare Conference: 3 Things Of Interest [View article]
    No, I hadn't seen that. Very interesting.

    Thanks.

    Ted
    Jan 18 10:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dendreon: Following Up On Market Mania [View article]
    Good piece, Saul. No one ever said investing in biotech companies was for the faint-hearted!

    Ted
    Jan 18 08:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vical: TransVax Therapeutic Vaccine Phase 2 Trial Results Published [View article]
    Thanks. It doesn't hurt to use all the tools available. I wish you well.

    Ted
    Jan 17 09:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vical: TransVax Therapeutic Vaccine Phase 2 Trial Results Published [View article]
    I think the best thing for you to do at this point is to go to the URL below and learn a little about chart analysis, unbiased by anything I might say.

    http://bit.ly/xcZ5c4

    Learn about Relative Strength and MACD here.

    Also, investigate what is meant by 'divergences.' For example, on the set of Daily charts above, we see the Relative Strength dropping and the black MACD line falling through the red line in early December while at the same time, the price held up fairly well. This is a 'divergence.' It was the tipoff that there was a good possibility the price would drop in the near term. It was during this period that I took some profits on stock I had purchased under $3.00 some time ago, writing off the profits against losses I had in Dendreon (damned if I know how that happened. (;>))

    But again, take a look at the that site above, which should help to explain quite a bit about technical analysis.

    I use TA primarly for the determination of entry and departure points in an issue...my choice of stocks is based on fundamentals. There are people in the markets that trade in and out of stocks solely on the basis of TA...they could care less whether a company makes jet planes or widgets.

    Ted
    Jan 16 07:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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