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Theodore Cohen  

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  • Dendreon's Presentation At JPMorgan Healthcare Conference: 3 Things Of Interest [View article]
    I have an article waiting for publication at Seeking Alpha.

    Ted
    Feb 1, 2012. 09:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vical's Allovectin: If Approved, What Kind Of Launch Can Be Expected? [View article]
    John,

    With all due respect, I don't believe people come to Seeking Alpha to read scientific papers. They are searching for data and information to 'instruct' their investment decisions. It is their responsibility to sift and winnow the material provided to them, to consider the sources, and to ponder their own risk tolerance before entering into any purchase decision.

    No one held a gun to your head and forced you to purchase shares in Vical. And you certainly acquired your position long before you began reading what I had to say about the company.

    The fact is, I have made money investing in Vical. I still own a significant number of shares. I still believe in their science.

    But...I have never...NEVER!...issued a BUY or SELL recommendation in any one of my articles, on Vical or any other company upon which I have commented.

    It's quite clear that you have lost money in this stock. It's also quite clear that you are not done being angry yet, and further, that you are bound and determined to make as many people's lives as miserable as possible until you 'come even' and can get out, satisfied that you have not lost money.

    The fact is, you never will break even because there's an 'opportunity cost' associated with the game you are playing. That is, while you are sitting there stewing about your losses, you could have sold your shares in Vical and invested the money, perhaps, in another company that better meets you investment goals.

    I don't think you should read anything I write. It only will make you angry. And given your attitude, I don't think anything you have to say will add to the discussion in this venue.

    Ted
    Feb 1, 2012. 07:03 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dendreon's Presentation At JPMorgan Healthcare Conference: 3 Things Of Interest [View article]
    Not a problem, DAG...comments always welcome. And yes, with DNDN, I don't think this drop is something about which to be worried...especially after the runup this month.

    Ted
    Jan 31, 2012. 04:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dendreon's Presentation At JPMorgan Healthcare Conference: 3 Things Of Interest [View article]
    This may be a normal pullback after the recent rise. There's been no news I saw that would account for the drop.

    Also, know that hedge funds report out at the end of the month, and according to one message board posting I saw (see below), these funds have suffered massive losses this month because of the rise in DNDN's price. There may be forces afoot to drive down the stock's price today in an attempt to lesson the losses they will report, and that may account for some of the downward pressure.

    http://bit.ly/wP76yQ

    That said, it's always difficult to know what accounts for the daily 'noise' in a stock's price action.

    Ted
    Jan 31, 2012. 04:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vical's Allovectin: If Approved, What Kind Of Launch Can Be Expected? [View article]
    Yes, that's correct...towards the end of the second quarter, 2012.

    Good catch.

    Ted
    Jan 31, 2012. 02:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vical's Allovectin: If Approved, What Kind Of Launch Can Be Expected? [View article]
    As I noted in the article, I think the stock still will trend lower (based on what the Weekly chart is saying). But that's only one interpretations.

    Ted
    Jan 31, 2012. 02:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vical's Allovectin: If Approved, What Kind Of Launch Can Be Expected? [View article]
    Hi, DAG!

    Nice to see you. And thanks. Everyone is holding their breath on Allovectin. But I'm confident that if approval is given, Vical will be prepared to launch.

    Be well.

    Ted
    Jan 31, 2012. 12:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Immunotherapy Cancer Trials With Key Data Due In 2012 [View article]
    I'm not going to comment on herbal and vitamin treatments.

    Ted
    Jan 26, 2012. 03:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Immunotherapy Cancer Trials With Key Data Due In 2012 [View article]
    Your point was, there was no shrinkage of the tumors. There was, and frankly, as begruding as it was for you to admit, I think it was 'more than a little.'

    Of course it's not proof...that's what we're waiting for.

    Ted
    Jan 26, 2012. 03:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Immunotherapy Cancer Trials With Key Data Due In 2012 [View article]
    JP, further to our current debate, I did some research and would point out a few facts:

    1) The historical response rates most often reported for DTIC are “objective overall responses,” aka “best responses,” which measure the peak regardless of time element. Chemotherapy responses occur very quickly, but they almost never begin after 6 months (late onset), and typically do not last anywhere close to 6 months (duration). Allovectin responses occur more slowly, but frequently begin after 6 months and typically last more than a year.

    2) The primary endpoint in Allovectin's Phase 3 trial is objective response rate at 24 weeks or more after randomization. In the Phase 2 Allovectin study, all responders by “objective overall response” criteria were also responders at or beyond the 6 month time point. The median duration of response in the Phase 2 Allovectin study was 13.8 months, and the range was 6 to 66 months and continuing at the time follow-up was ended. There are very few papers that report “durable response rate” for DTIC in melanoma, but those that do clearly demonstrate a significant decline from the peak. I can't find any studies reporting late-onset responses for DTIC. Do you have knowledge of same? The Allovectin Phase 3 primary endpoint was designed to highlight this important advantage for patients.

    3) At ASCO 2011, you will recall, Vical presented new statistical analyses of data from completed Allovectin trials that demonstrated a strong positive correlation between response and survival. Simply put, patients who responded to Allovectin lived longer than patients who do not respond. This correlation may seem obvious, but it has not been shown for patients treated with chemotherapy. In the latter case, their tumors typically shrank but returned quickly without prolonging survival. Again, long-term benefit to patients (reduction of tumor burden AND extended survival) is the goal.

    4) Obviously, nobody knows the outcome of the ongoing Allovectin Phase 3 trial. However, if the historical results are repeated, the trial is well designed to demonstrate significant advantages for Allovectin vs. chemotherapy in both long-term response rate and survival.

    Regardless of our positions, I think we are in agreement on one point: we both eagerly awaiting the trial results.

    Ted
    Jan 26, 2012. 12:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vical: TransVax Therapeutic Vaccine Phase 2 Trial Results Published [View article]
    Hi, rd...

    Nothing works all the time, in any field or in any venue.

    Technical analysis is just a tool. The only reason it has any value whatsoever is that many investors emply it as part of their strategies, and so, it becomes, to a large extent, a self-fulfilling prophesy.

    You're correct...the charts of volitile stocks are 'all over the map' (or better, the chart), and attempting to make sense of them may be a fool's game. But other stocks are better behaved, and traders can make money emplying technical analysis to determine buy and sell points.

    I own Vical (and I've never made a secret of that...it's in the disclaimer on every article I've written on the company) for a number of reasons, not the least of which is because I believe Allovectin has value. As well, their TransVax and their work in HSV-2 interests me.

    There is no question...small biotechs (and, in fact, biotechs, in general) are NOT for the fainthearted. Those investors having a low risk tolerance should NOT invest in them! I repeat...do NOT invest in biotechnology companies if your have a low tolerance for risk because you can lose all of your entire principal.

    No tool...whether fundamendal or technical...is going to protect you from the inevitable surprises that will occur with these stocks.

    Ted

    Disclaimer: Material presented here is for informational purposes only. Consult your financial adviser before making investment decisions. Investing includes risks, including loss of principal.
    Jan 26, 2012. 09:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vical: TransVax Therapeutic Vaccine Phase 2 Trial Results Published [View article]
    What insider purchases were those to which you are referring? All I see are option grants at the beginning of the year.

    That said, I think the stock is under distribution, and it could well dip below $3.00 if the markets go 'south' for whatever reason. I doubt we'll see $1.80 again unless the Allovectin trial results are a total failure.

    A look at the Weekly chart suggests that barring failure of the trial, the stock might bottom in any washout around $2.80 to $3.00.

    I sold half of my position at $4.30 and above, and would step back in below $3.00 to add. But that decision is based on MY situation and risk tolerance. Consult your financial advisor. I never have made any Buy or Sell recommendations to my readers in any of my articles. I only have indicated whether or not I currently held a position in a stock I was discussing.

    Ted
    Jan 26, 2012. 08:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Immunotherapy Cancer Trials With Key Data Due In 2012 [View article]
    I understand that, JP. And as I said, "Whether the Phase II data will be repeated or exceeded in the ongoing, pivotal Phase III Allovectin trial for which the data should be available in mid-2012 is the $64,000 question." Like you, I await the results.

    Ted
    Jan 26, 2012. 07:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Immunotherapy Cancer Trials With Key Data Due In 2012 [View article]
    I'll be here, John, regardless of what happens.

    You still haven't answered my questions.

    Ted
    Jan 26, 2012. 07:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Immunotherapy Cancer Trials With Key Data Due In 2012 [View article]
    One other note, John...from Slide 8 of the same presentation I cited above (here's the URL again)

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    Note the following regarding administration, and in particular, the first point under 'Direct intratumoral injection:'

    Direct intratumoral injection
     Select up to 10 target tumor lesions to follow
     Repeat injections into same single lesion
     Cycle = 1/wk x 6 wks + 2 wks observation
     Measure response in all target lesions

    Outpatient setting
     No pre-treatment or post-treatment care
     Well-tolerated in multiple clinical trials
     Minimal impact on quality of life

    Allovectin WAS being injected directly into tumors. You stated that '...the shrinkage of tumors is still a very big question mark.' Now, look at the three slides I cited above and tell me, in all three cases, that you do not see tumor shrinkage. In particular, I assert that the shrinkage of the tumors on the legs of the 58 year old female with extensive in-transit metastases in her right leg is nothing less than astounding.

    Tell me what you see. How would you describe it? How would you describe what you see in the other two cases shown? (By the way, Seeking Alpha would not allow me to present these data in my paper because they considered the photographs too graphic for their readers.)

    Ted
    Jan 25, 2012. 03:37 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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