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Theodore Cohen  

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  • Biotechs: Has The Law Of Gravity Been Suspended? [View article]
    Thanks for the interesting analysis. I'm sure others on this page will find it instructive as well. If (and you use that word repeatedly, I note) your assumptions obtain, then you have indeed made a good investment.

    I wish you well.

    Ted
    Jan 13, 2012. 01:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dendreon's Presentation At JPMorgan Healthcare Conference: 3 Things Of Interest [View article]
    Thanks for the clarification. As someone who tends to shun the more modern modes of 'personal communication' (is that phrase now becoming more an oxymoron than not?), I think we, as a society, are losing much in the way of our humanity through our increasing reliance on e-mail, blogging, texting (sexting (oy! virtual sex...what's next...virtual children?), and other less-than-personal communications. Miscommunications are becoming the order of the day, and it's easy, as we just saw, to convey opinions in ways that, while well-intentioned, can be misinterpreted and offputting. I'm not picking on you...I would posit that everyone on this board, I, too, has done it at one time or another (and more than once, as well). Which I why I make an extra effort to be as courteous as I can to those on this board. Interestingly, many who have been critical of me in the past now have become some of my best blogging friends. I hope I can count you among them.

    I hope you have a great day. Here, temperature dropped from 50 to 32, wind rose to almost 40 mph, and I see snow. I hope it's better where you are.

    Ted
    Jan 13, 2012. 09:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dendreon's Presentation At JPMorgan Healthcare Conference: 3 Things Of Interest [View article]
    Dear LaChic...

    I did trade, some, in DNDN before the August 3, 2011, CC and the subsequent drop--profitably, I might add--but in truth, was caught by surprise, as were more than a few people, including many who consider themselves professional investors (e.g, S.A. Cohen, of SAC hedge fund fame.)

    Did I 'buy' management's story regarding earnings? Yes. Did others? Most certainly. Based on the data we had, there were few indications to believe to the contrary, though to his credit, David Miller of BiotechStockResearch did register some unease.

    Hindsight is 20-20, of course, LaChic. It's easy to make bold statements such as yours and look down your nose when others fail. That said, I sincerely do hope that all of your investment and other decisions in life work out well, and that your life's vision will always be '20-20.' Somehow, though, I have the distinct feeling, based on having traveled around the Sun 73 times, that life will catch up with you, sooner rather than later, as it does for all of us.

    A wise man once told me: "Be kind to the people you meet going up the ladder because you surely will meet them coming down."

    Happy New Year, my friend. (;>)

    Ted
    Jan 12, 2012. 04:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dendreon's Presentation At JPMorgan Healthcare Conference: 3 Things Of Interest [View article]
    I understand the feeling. I was somewhat concerned about going to the gym the morning after the August CC.

    Live can be interesting . . . sometimes TOO interesting.

    Ted
    Jan 12, 2012. 03:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dendreon's Presentation At JPMorgan Healthcare Conference: 3 Things Of Interest [View article]
    I have that written on a note and posted to my monitor. (;>)

    All stocks go through "Love, Hate, Who Cares?" phases. Look's like DNDN skipped the "Who Cares?" phase and now is back in many people's good graces...except for the shorts, who took it in the ear (and other parts of their anatomies).

    Ted
    Jan 12, 2012. 08:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dendreon's Presentation At JPMorgan Healthcare Conference: 3 Things Of Interest [View article]
    There's no question that the shorts got squeezed. If you're on Wall Street, don't stand under any open windows.

    Ted
    Jan 11, 2012. 02:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dendreon: Where Do Things Stand On Provenge Reimbursement? [View article]
    Hi, rd...

    I never issue BUY or SELL recommendations, but yes, people seem to be taking another look at a stock just about everyone hated a week ago. I have said time and time again...Mr. Market just loves making the most people wrong at the bottom. It would appear that the suggestion the German authorities will look with favor on Dendreon's submission once again has the shorts taking it in the ear. I weep for them. (NOT!)

    Be well.

    T
    Jan 11, 2012. 11:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dendreon's Presentation At JPMorgan Healthcare Conference: 3 Things Of Interest [View article]
    Thanks, RWROIG...

    It's been quite a ride, hasn't it! This stock has been through the wringer, no thanks to Wall Street, a corrupt FDA, and an SEC that has totally failed to fulfill its mission.

    For anyone who wants to know what has happened to this company since 2007 . . . what it went through to bring Provenge to market . . . I encourage you to read Mark Mitchell's new book on the subject:

    The Dendreon Effect: How Felons, Con-men and Wall Street Insiders Manipulate High-tech Stocks

    http://amzn.to/za5PEd

    Ted
    Jan 11, 2012. 07:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dendreon's Presentation At JPMorgan Healthcare Conference: 3 Things Of Interest [View article]
    Thanks, noahpk...

    Of course, the company cannot speak to the extended life extention benefit to which I alluded. The FDA would come down on them with cleats. But the fact is, and as I have repeatedly said, the trial almost failed the treatment. Provenge came within a hare's breath of failing because of the crossovers to Frovenge in the placebo cohort.

    The FDA and pharma community need to get a handle on the statistics involved in such cases and address the issue head-on in future trials because the pivotal Provenge trials cannot have been a unique case for this to have happened. But there's no mistaking the fact that if you compare the results for Provenge with those in the placebo cohort who did NOT receive Frovenge, the life extension benefits are significantly greater than the median 4.1 months upon which approval was based. This easily can be seen in the Kaplan-Meier curves on the poster below.

    http://scr.bi/wUGLXS

    Ted
    Jan 11, 2012. 07:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dendreon's Presentation At JPMorgan Healthcare Conference: 3 Things Of Interest [View article]
    Thanks, see...

    you won't have to wait that long...the conferences I mentioned are coming up in in the next several months. My major concern with Dendreon at this point is whether or not the company can establish Provenge as the Foundation of Care with other treatments such as Zytiga and MDV-3100 layered in behind it. As well, having markers available to indicate uptake is vital, which is why the papers I mentioned are so important.

    Ted
    Jan 11, 2012. 07:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dendreon's Presentation At JPMorgan Healthcare Conference: 3 Things Of Interest [View article]
    Thanks, Sky. Much appreciated.

    Be well.

    Ted
    Jan 11, 2012. 07:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dendreon's Presentation At JPMorgan Healthcare Conference: 3 Things Of Interest [View article]
    The market IS a discounting mechanism, after all. Obviously, others are using different models than yours.

    Ted
    Jan 11, 2012. 07:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Analyzing Monday's Noteworthy Insider Buys And Sells [View article]
    Regarding your article in general and the following statement in particular:

    "Insiders currently hold 9.3 million or 12.9% of outstanding shares. On Monday, Director and 10% owner James Singer filed SEC Form 4 indicating that he purchased 2.67 million shares for $10.0 million in the name of CDEF LLC, a Maine LLC over which he has indirect control, thereby boosting his VICL holdings to 10.0 million shares."

    Mr. Singer is not now, nor never has been, a Director of Vical. The Form 4 shows him to be solely a 10% owner.

    Finally, the offering was a public follow-on, not a secondary. The proceeds were clearly disclosed in Friday’s release as $50 million.

    Dr. Cohen
    Full disclosure: I am not associated with Vical, Inc., in any way whatsoever, but I do write articles on the corporation for Seeking Alpha, including the one published yesterday:

    http://bit.ly/wX2rF6
    Jan 10, 2012. 05:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vical: A Review Of, And Update On, Allovectin [View article]
    John,

    I am long Vical. I have never made a secret of that.

    That said, I never once (!), in all the articles and blogs I have published on Seeking Alpha, recommended to my readers they BUY or SELL a stock I discussed.

    I believe I have presented data and Information to my readers based on material found in the popular, scientific, and archival literature. Further, I have always provided the references needed for them to do their own DD. Whether or not they agree with me is their choice. Whether they chose to buy or sell Vical also is their choice. In either case, it has absolutely no impact on me or on what I say or do.

    It is your choice to disagree with me.

    If you do not believe Allovectin is effective, then stand and deliver. Present your evidence and back it up.

    You say I have not answered you question. Have you looked at the presentation on the Vical Web site I referenced in my article...the one I pointed my readers to containing the results of the company's Phase 2 trial and that provided graphic demonstrations of the drug's effectiveness? I don't believe you have, or you would not still be pressing your case. Without those data, I don't know how to answer your question. Please...look at the Before and After pictures showing the effect Allovectin had when it was injected into the tumor lesion sites (slides 11, 12, and 13) of the three patients shown.

    http://bit.ly/w2Rqca

    I can't think of anything more 'convincing' than to see the results for these three (of 15) responders. And by the way, at the time that presentation was developed, the median survival time could NOT be determined for the 15 responders (and it stood at 80 months). Is this what you were looking for, because if it was, then it's been there since the time I wrote the article above.

    Finally, I certainly do NOT want anyone to invest in this company based solely on what they read here. They have an obligation to themselves and their families to perform their own DD and evaluate their investment decisions consistent with their ability to bear the risks. I'm not here to hold anyone's hand. I am here, however, to share what I know. And based on the disclosure regarding my ownership in Vical, I am, obviously, willing to put my cash where my mouth is.

    I wish you well.

    Ted
    Jan 10, 2012. 04:43 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dendreon's Presentation At JPMorgan Healthcare Conference: 3 Things Of Interest [View article]
    Yes, I liked their three-prong approach to reducing costs. I have a great deal of condence in Schiffman...have followed his career for many years. If anyone has not read his bio, they are missing something. Here is it:

    Mr. Schiffman serves as our executive vice president and chief financial officer. Mr. Schiffman came to Dendreon from Affymetrix Inc., where he served as the CFO and executive vice president. Prior to Affymetrix, Mr. Schiffman was the vice president and controller for Applied Biosystems where he managed a 200-person global finance team spanning more than 20 countries. Prior to entering the biotechnology field, he served for over 10 years in various domestic and international divisions of Hewlett Packard, ultimately serving as a divisional manufacturing manager and controller. Prior to Hewlett Packard, he also held positions at IBM. Mr. Schiffman holds an M.B.A. from the Kellogg School of Business at Northwestern University and a B.S. degree in accounting from DePaul University.

    http://bit.ly/xQ93uk

    This guy has his act together!

    Ted
    Jan 10, 2012. 03:04 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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