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Theodore Cohen  

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  • Dendreon: Overall Survival Data For Provenge From 2012 GU Poster [View article]
    I have just received a personnel communication from the first author:

    "The manuscript is under preparation and we hope to complete it soon. I am hoping that we can complete all analyses and submit the paper by ASCO-2012."

    Now, can we move on, please?

    Ted

    PS Having given many presentations at symposia and conferences during my professional career, I know from experience that it is not unusual for publication of the final peer-reviewed papers to follow presentations at such fora by one or more years. In one case, a conference presentation I gave was included as a (peer-reviewed) chapter in a book dedicated to a colleague and renowned specialist in his field who was moving to another institution of high learning. Dr. Cohen
    Mar 2, 2012. 05:32 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dendreon: Overall Survival Data For Provenge From 2012 GU Poster [View article]
    I'm not familiar with IMUC nor their technology. Sorry.

    Ted
    Mar 2, 2012. 01:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Remain Positive On Dendreon [View article]
    Excellent, well-balanced review of the current situation.

    Ted
    Mar 2, 2012. 12:26 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dendreon: Overall Survival Data For Provenge From 2012 GU Poster [View article]
    Bashers will use whatever is available--and make up the rest. The company will do what it has to do, see. Eventually, the numbers will tell the tale. I want to see what Johnson and his new team will do.

    As for February and March, Johnson said in his response to one analyst (you'll find it in the Q&A part of the CC transcript) that sales were accelerating. So, I have to think he was referring to March, where they already had good visibility.

    Ted
    Mar 2, 2012. 08:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dendreon: Overall Survival Data For Provenge From 2012 GU Poster [View article]
    It's very difficult to say, see. Lots of private agendas at work out there bearing on Dendreon...some related to the science, some to market forces, some related to hate for certain people, etc., etc. I know of few stocks that elicit such great emotions as this one. Still, I've been involved in turnarounds (was an officer brought into a company in 1991 to assist with one), and while they are not pretty, with effective leadership, it's amazing what can be accomplished. (In the one in which I was involved, significant results already were apparent at the 6-month mark.)

    So, as far as price is concerned, I won't go further than to say that I think the stock will be higher than it is today. But I think we will see a string of events unfold, some of which already occurred (the three new officers) that will reinforce my perceptions that Johnson is a force to be reckoned with, both within the pharma universe as well as on Wall Street. These actions might include, but are not limited to:

    1. The closing of one plant, with, perhaps, the shipment of the blood-processing modules to a site in Europe
    2. Acceleration of the computerization of operations to optimize the flow of data and reduce processing times
    3. Second-sourcing of antigen supplies to drive down the cost of goods sold
    4. Very aggressive Direct to Consumer advertising campaigns, including the initiation of television and cable commercials
    5. Partner more applications of the proprietary cassette technology with Big Pharma. Hell, were already went through Phase I for Breast Cancer with Neuvenge, the treatment they are now in Phase II with for Bladder Cancer. Why not go into Phase II with Neuvenge for Breast Cancer, or Ovarian or Colorectal Solid Tumors, and let someone else pick up the tab for the trials?
    6. Partner some other molecules with other companies. Whatever happened to CA9 and CEA? The foolishness of 'going it alone' has got to stop. It's been nothing but opportunities wasted, and is partly the reason the company is where it is today.

    http://bit.ly/zRgRzc

    7. Get TRPM8 moving? We never hear anything about this molecule. What's the story?

    http://bit.ly/zfMHaJ

    8. Partner marketing in Europe. Just because you have EU authorization doesn’t mean anything except you have a license to go into 30-some countries and begin the process of securing the licenses you need to market in those countries. For that, you need a partner.

    There are a ton of things that can be done to maximize shareholder value. Gold wanted to go it alone. I think Johnson will begin to partner and let this company spread its wings. The man knows his way around Big Pharma and Wall Street! I think the first surprises will NOT come at the CC in May, but in press releases before that time.

    Ted
    Feb 29, 2012. 02:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dendreon: Overall Survival Data For Provenge From 2012 GU Poster [View article]
    The new president has no baggage. He should be open to any and all possibilities.

    Analysts usually run in a herd. G_d forbid one sits outside the box and is wrong!

    Ted
    Feb 28, 2012. 03:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dendreon: Overall Survival Data For Provenge From 2012 GU Poster [View article]
    COGS...very complex, especially now because of the way their are accounting for the antigen. I'm sure the answer's in the fine print in the SEC filings. But yes...basically, the effect will be to improve the profit margin. T
    Feb 28, 2012. 03:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dynavax: HEPLISAV BLA Submission On Track For May 2012 [View article]
    Here's this morning's presentation:

    http://bit.ly/xQMYiX
    Feb 28, 2012. 11:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dynavax: HEPLISAV BLA Submission On Track For May 2012 [View article]
    Hi, GG...nice to see you again. And many thanks for the Comment and added 'color.'

    I think this company is flying well below the Street's radar, and am just waiting for a dip to add to my position. I'd love to pick up more around $3, but then, wouldn't everyone?! That said, the Weekly MACD line looks las if it's just getting ready to tip over, so that and the Daily technical data suggest lower prices ahead.

    Be well.

    Ted
    Feb 28, 2012. 11:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dendreon: Overall Survival Data For Provenge From 2012 GU Poster [View article]
    Sorry for the dual reply. My e-mail showed a new Comment, and hitting the URL took me to your note.

    Have a great day.

    Ted
    Feb 28, 2012. 09:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dendreon: Overall Survival Data For Provenge From 2012 GU Poster [View article]
    EU won't happen overnight. What they need to do is focus on the urology community and reduce their COGS. They also need to get the doctors to become more adept at identifying Provenge candidates earlier.

    Ted
    Feb 28, 2012. 09:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dendreon: Overall Survival Data For Provenge From 2012 GU Poster [View article]
    I think they can reach a monthly revenue rate of $40 million this year, though it won't be as early as I had anticipated.

    Ted
    Feb 28, 2012. 09:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dendreon: Overall Survival Data For Provenge From 2012 GU Poster [View article]
    The Street clearly was disappointed with the prepared remarks by Johnson that 1Q12 would be 'soft.' This was in part because some $2M-$3M in sales were shifted into 4Q11 from January. Interestingly, in the remarks that followed (and by this time, most traders probably had abandoned the call and were selling the stock hand over fist), an analyst engaged Johnson in the following exchange:

    ----------------------...

    Operator

    Our next question comes from Cory Kasimov of J.P. Morgan. Please go ahead.

    Cory Kasimov – J.P. Morgan

    Hi. Good morning, guys. Thanks for taking the question. Mine is on the first quarter sales trends for PROVENGE, and I realize that January was relatively light given the year-end dynamics you discussed, but can you talk a little bit more about trends within the quarter?

    Are you seeing an acceleration in orders and sales through February and March, and maybe this growth -- is the growth within the quarter being driven by increasing same-store sales, so to speak, or by bringing on new accounts? Thanks.

    John Johnson

    Thanks, Cory. As I mentioned in my prepared remarks, the order book for January was soft. We have seen it accelerate through the quarter. We have added 80 sites through January and up to today in February, so for us that’s pretty consistent with the overall run rate of last year, so it’s coming from both.

    New account acquisition is clearly driving it. What’s going to be part of my digging in here over the next couple of months is it’s not only account acquisition, but making sure we’re getting the right accounts that we’re acquiring and we’re not chasing smaller accounts and not driving utilization in the larger ones.

    So you’ll probably see a little bit more in my comments going forward about penetration into some of the larger accounts. We hope to give you an update, give you some more color on that on our next quarter call.

    ----------------------...
    So, things may not be as dire as the Street first thought. That said, there's no question that the company has its work cut out for it. They need to penetrate the urology community in greater numbers, with only 50% of the LUGPAs (Large Urology Group Practice Association) members providing Provenge today. As well, they need to get their Cost of Goods Sold (COGS) down. Schiffman did say that by the time they reached $500 million (cash-flow breakeven) in sales, their COBS would be at 20-30%. I think the Street expected that to be achieved later this year, but now, it might be early next year.

    The bottom line: the Street took its money and moved on to other, more inviting opportunities. I think it will be back in 3-6 months. Johnson has only been onboard for 27 days. He needs time to 'fix' what's broke.

    Ted
    Feb 28, 2012. 09:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dendreon: Overall Survival Data For Provenge From 2012 GU Poster [View article]
    I didn't see the answer to you question in the transcript. But I do recall a mention of a one-time charge, and that was related to Gold leaving.

    Ted
    Feb 27, 2012. 06:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dendreon: Overall Survival Data For Provenge From 2012 GU Poster [View article]
    I think it's best if you read the transcript so there are no misunderstandings:

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    I think we have to let Mr. Johnson work with his team and fix the things that he has identified before passing final judgement. And yes...this is a difficult company in which to own stock.

    Ted
    Feb 27, 2012. 05:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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