Seeking Alpha
View as an RSS Feed


View thibaud's Comments BY TICKER:

Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Infrastructure Industry Set For A $190 Billion Injection: Who Will Profit? [View article]
    If you want an infrastructure play, follow the moves by that ultimate insider, the congressman's son who runs Berkshire Hathaway. Railroads, cement. He's been using his knowledge and connections in Washington to great advantage over the last 5 years.

    Watch WB like a hawk, and if any evidence turns up that he's preparing to buy Fluor, jump on it.
    Jul 1, 2013. 12:48 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Infrastructure Industry Set For A $190 Billion Injection: Who Will Profit? [View article]
    Unfortunately, DanielHolzman is right.

    The author's analysis is missing a crucial element: a near-term CATALYST that will cause the market to come around to the author's point of view.

    This is essentially a political scenario, and there is nothing to suggest that the opposition party will drop its wrongheaded opposition to any/all stimulus that does not favor its cronies.
    Jul 1, 2013. 12:40 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • These Obesity Stock Plays Could Offer 'Blockbuster' Drug Potential [View article]
    Top pick. I also own AZN and am looking to buy KOF, the Mexican Coca-Cola bottler on weakness.

    Think of it as an integrated, upstream/downstream obesity strategy.
    Apr 25, 2013. 02:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Complete Reset Of Expectations Could Mark The Bottom [View article]
    The quarter on quarter change in Apple's return on invested capital is negative and has been for several quarters. Nothing in the company's business outlook suggests that this downward ROIC trend will reverse itself soon - not the product mix, nor the company's market share trajectory, nor the competitors' strategies or capabilities.

    Apple is a great company, but its competitors have caught up and the Great Man has left the scene. Apple's best days are behind it. Look for $AAPL to fall another 40% this year.
    Apr 24, 2013. 11:38 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Things could get dicey for Intuitive Surgical over the next few days, as CNBC rolls out the "The da Vinci Debate," a critical expose on ISRG's high-tech da Vinci robot. The piece comes at a difficult time for the company, who earlier today acknowleged in a 10-Q filing that it's currently the defendent in approximately 26 individual product liability lawsuits by plaintiffs who allege that they sustained a variety of personal injuries and, in some cases, death as a result of the robotic surgery. [View news story]
    If the surgeons aren't trained properly, they won't know how to use the device safely. Not much evidence that ISRG gives a damn about training. Short ISRG.
    Apr 20, 2013. 12:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 4 Reasons To Buy Occidental Petroleum [View article]
    Fracking will come to California precisely because CA is strapped for cash. Gov. Brown has already sacked the former DOGGR director who blocked any permitting activity and is clearly signalling his determination to move ahead and tap this windfall.

    The state is sitting on 4x as much shale oil as North Dakota has (15 billion barrels). OXY dominates here. The market is assigning zero value to OXY's leases, and that represents an opportunity for a patient investor.

    More on California's extraordinary reserves:
    Apr 1, 2013. 07:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Poseidon Concepts Could Resurface [View article]
    My $0.02: The author clearly indicated that "this stock is for high-risk traders only" and that "you might be able to make some money on the bounce."

    In other words, there was never any investment case to be made - or even a well thought-out trading strategy put forward. This was gambling, pure and simple.

    I'm not opposed to gambling - in a moment of weakness, I gambled on this stock a year ago and made about 25% in short order - but I don't think it's appropriate for SA or its authors to be pushing gambling as a strategy. It's dumb, and will lead to grief. SA can do better.
    Mar 27, 2013. 09:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 4 Reasons To Buy Occidental Petroleum [View article]
    The value of OXY's California assets is overlooked by investors, who tend to worry about the company's overseas esp middle eastern exposure.

    With the overpaid and underperforming Dr. Irani stepping down, there's a strong prospect of the company exiting from many of its overseas, value-destroying investments and turning its focus to the domestic US, where it is strongest.

    If Gov. Brown moves forward with permits for the Monterey Shale projects in California, that would be another major positive catalyst for the stock. Long OXY.
    Mar 27, 2013. 08:25 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • You Need Oil Exposure In Your Income Portfolio: Here Are The Best Ways To Get It [View article]
    MLPs' tax treatment is too opaque/scary for my tastes. I did very well by Rose Rock and several others but finally couldn't stomach the thought that I might be slapped with a huge tax bill when I retire, so I ditched them. Will look into VNR, thanks.
    Mar 27, 2013. 08:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • You Need Oil Exposure In Your Income Portfolio: Here Are The Best Ways To Get It [View article]
    OXY, HAL and GEOS.

    OXY's shale assets in the US are undervalued. The company has been badly managed and will be valued significantly higher when new management can unwind the value-destroying investments made by the former globally-oriented CEO.

    HAL is an undervalued great company and market leader with superior management and excellent return on invested capital over the years. Very attractive entry point now.

    GEOS is one of the best technology plays in the oilfield services industry. Outstanding track record and plenty of room to continue rapid growth.

    CLB is another potential buy if it dips into the $110 range.
    Mar 26, 2013. 05:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Outperforming Dividend Stocks With Encouraging Accounting Trends [View article]
    Cosan is a strong buy. Company is changing its business model and revenue mix, moving into high-return energy businesses and buying out foreign oil-major partners' stakes in JVs.
    Mar 26, 2013. 05:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why AstraZeneca Will Disappoint In 2013 [View article]
    Fair points on AZN's underperformance, but is it accurate to say that $AZN will "disappoint" this year?

    Isn't it more likely the case that the stock's priced in almost all the potential negative near-term catalysts and none of the potential positive catalysts?

    If so, a patient investor looking at same would buy the stock at these price levels.

    Also, if one takes a long-term view that the obesity crisis is a) out of control in the US, b) spreading rapidly to Mexico, China and other high-growth emerging markets, and c) unlikely to reverse course during the next 20 years due to hugely powerful cultural/social currents, then it's not necessarily a bad idea to have a "global obesity" portfolio strategy in which you go long on the major providers of insulin and insulin replacements, while also taking a position in the providers of sugary drinks to emerging markets....

    Disclosure: long $NVO and $AZN, with buy orders for $SNY and $KOF if they dip further
    Mar 21, 2013. 03:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • These Tech Titans Are Attractively Priced [View article]
    Great companies, outstanding mgmt teams, but each is facing long-term decline. VMW's best days are behind it. Not good picks for the retirement portfolio. If you're trading, best to let ORCL get back to the $26 range, I think.
    Mar 21, 2013. 03:18 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Massive Underperformance Of Apple Vs. Amazon [View article]
    When the year-on-year change in ROIC for Apple was positive, as in 2008-1H2011, the stock was a strong buy.

    If and when the yoy change in ROIC shows signs of turning back to positive, I'll gladly revise my view on the stock.

    Apple's a great company with great management and great products. It's a far better company than Hewlett Packard, and probably a better company than Amazon, but that's irrelevant to the question of which stock one should buy today at current prices.

    The smart money is moving into $HPQ and has moved out of $AAPL - not because HPQ is great and Apple sucks (the opposite is true), but because investors see lots of strong evidence that HPQ is about to report a strong positive change in yoy ROIC and Apple will continue to report strong negative change in yoy ROIC.
    Mar 11, 2013. 01:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Massive Underperformance Of Apple Vs. Amazon [View article]
    Hmmm... AAPL's institutional ownership is lower than AMZN's (61.2% vs 66.5%). Do you mean "newbie institutional investors"?
    Mar 7, 2013. 03:58 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment