Seeking Alpha

This Business

 
View as an RSS Feed
View This Business' Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Developing A Rotation Strategy Using Highly Diversified ETFs - Part III [View article]
    Marc: I liked your article. I've been using etfreplay to implement a mechanical trading system for part of my portfolio, but I appreciate the multiple levels of testing your system has.

    The question always lurking in the back of my mind for any system relying on stocks and bonds, including mine, is whether such systems will continue to work in a rising rate environment well enough to keep the charts looking so linear and pretty? Without backtesting '70s/80's I don't know, but I've included inverse funds in the bucket of ETFs that can be selected on etfreplay just in case. Have you checked to see whether or not they would have been selected under your system? I'd be curious to hear your findings/ideas.
    Mar 25 11:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Reasons Bears Never Prosper [View article]
    That is some impressive discipline Buyandhold--no selling in 44 years!
    Feb 15 05:31 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Reasons Bears Never Prosper [View article]
    Thanks for the well written article; had I known about the fear industry before I started investing, I'd have a lot more gains at this point.

    With the Internet, mankind has finally created a means for anyone, anyone at all, to blast their world view to a broad audience. Fear being so powerful, what better way to hook new investors and those ready to see the world as threatening. It's not just in investing either; the local news uses fear to attract viewers by focusing almost always on fires, murders, and a myriad of other threats large and small. Diet crazes feed on fear that if I don't look like a model I will lose social status. Stores use the fear that I'll miss a good price from a sale if I don't get in their right now to buy. Is it any wonder investment letter/bloggers use fear to attract readers/subscribers?
    Feb 15 12:40 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Time Bomb In The Canadian Financials [View article]
    Cam,

    Always enjoy your articles for the fact focus and thoughtful analysis. On a personal note, my partner lives outside Toronto and wants to buy a place. I keep sending your articles to try and tamp down the enthusiasm. Not sure its working though.
    Apr 3 01:38 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Are There Better Emerging-Markets ETF Choices? [View article]
    Disappointed the article didn't cover HILO; it's focused on dividends and low volatility in emerging markets.
    Mar 20 08:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ranger Equity Bear ETF Still Behaving As A Leveraged Bet Against The S&P 500 [View article]
    Not to pile on, but I'm glad I'm not the only one that was disappointed. I've been watching from the sidelines for months--after losing a few percent some months ago--wondering, why don't they have some risk control in this active fund? I like the fundamental test for short candidates and lack of leverage, but they should pair that with a trigger to cover if they're early on the sell call.
    Mar 1 02:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Dumbest Portfolio For The Smartest People [View article]
    I so agree about the financial news and would add the pop. culture financial gurus to the mix. I did a quick backtest on foliofn of 60% VT and 40% LSGLX. The five year return was 23.13% versus 23.95% for the S&P 500. In the 2008 crisis, your portfolio fell almost 30 percent versus over 50 percent for the S&P. So it performed as expected.

    I too wrote an article about a simple portfolio--the 99 percent portfolio: http://seekingalpha.co.... I prefer it for its higher yield and lower drawdown during the 2008 crisis 17.67 percent, but its more involved than the two fund approach which certainly has its advantages.
    Feb 28 06:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ECRI Weekly Update: Walking The Recession Plank [View article]
    Doug:

    Always enjoy your articles and apolitical data analysis.
    Dec 16 02:56 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Invest In Latin America For Superior Returns [View article]
    Uncle Floyd--I've thought about using FRN too for the same reason; I'm just wondering whether the allocations will remain LA focused over the long term. Would need to research it more to see how that might change over time.
    Dec 10 02:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Invest In Latin America For Superior Returns [View article]
    It is frustrating that almost all of the broad emerging market ETFs overweight Brazil and Taiwan and underweight places like India, Mexico, Chile, etc.. Even the Latin America broad ETFs are mostly Brazil focused. I recently compared, for myself, a few of the broad EM ETFs for cap. size and country distribution; should include EEM or VWO but they're not that different:

    Cap. EDIV DVYE DEM SCHE Total
    Giant 20.00% 8.10% 43.00% 45.20% -- 116.30%
    Large 53.90% 33.70% 36.90% 42.60% -- 167.10%
    Mid 23.60% 49.60% 14.90% 11.60% -- 99.70%
    Small 2.50% 8.70% 4.90% 0.60% -- 16.70%
    Micro 0.00% 0.00% 0.30% 0.00% -- 0.30%

    Country
    Taiwan 13.41% 21.71% 20.12% 12.74% -- 67.98%
    Brazil 20.19% 9.70% 12.57% 16.10% -- 58.56%
    China 8.81% 7.75% 15.30% 18.11% -- 49.97%
    S. Africa 8.75% 10.36% 7.75% 10.48% -- 37.34%
    Russia 5.67% 0.00% 13.29% 5.85% -- 24.81%
    Turkey 9.72% 9.76% 3.54% 0.00% -- 23.02%
    Malaysia 4.59% 7.72% 4.97% 5.06% -- 22.34%
    Thailand 3.67% 9.54% 5.28% 2.67% -- 21.16%
    S Korea 8.75% 4.14% 2.88% 0.00% -- 15.77%
    Poland 9.34% 0.00% 3.90% 0.00% -- 13.24%
    India 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 9.56% -- 9.56%
    Indonesia 0.00% 4.58% 0.00% 2.64% -- 7.22%
    Mexico 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 6.19% -- 6.19%
    Czech Rep 0 4.29% 0.00% 0.00 -- 4.29%
    Dec 10 01:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tax Share By Bracket: An Update [View article]
    I have an idea for a new law: Every author of an article about taxes, the economy, President Obama, and Gold must disclose the income group in which they themselves reside. From this most excellent law, it will be relatively easy to determine whether the author is:

    * Of the lower (socialist, communist, unionista) sort
    * One of the betters group (plutocrat, nouveau riche, old line aristocrat, Buffetliberal)
    * One of the wannabe types actually residing in the lower echelons but seeking the approval of his betters by defending their right to pay less in taxes than a bus driver--and really believing that makes sense.
    * The delusional type residing in the lower echelons without any chance of breaking into the 1 percent but nevertheless thinking they will and damn well better have low tax rates when they get there.
    * Or perhaps, I must hope, a dispassionate analytical type that studiously removes his/her political ideology from the analysis and thereby provides value to his reading public. Value sorely lacking more everyday since the invention of this Internet tube thing.

    And for the record, I think I'm somewhere in the top 25%--but can't quite tell from the article.
    Dec 5 04:16 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Election Outcome And The Rising Risk To Your Portfolio [View article]
    While your article is pretty clearly an advertisement for your site, I liked your dispassionate political analysis. A few quibbles:

    1. I think Bernanke is on record saying he doesn't want another term; of course, he could change his mind if it was offered.

    2. If Romney loses, I think it may lead to the GOP to rethink its hard right stance of the past four years. I say this based on watching Jeb Bush and now Chris Christie, two strong candidates for 2016. Jeb Bush for some time, and Christie just this week, seem to be trying to move to the center. Romney losing would confirm that its a necessity for the GOP if its going to elect Presidents...and in a few cases this election GOP senators.

    3. Given #2 above, and the fact that the right loses more than the left if we go over the fiscal cliff (Bush tax cuts, defense spending, Estate tax, Alternative Minimum Tax), I think an Obama administration would have new leverage post election to negotiate some sort of compromise.
    Nov 2 03:50 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Jim Rogers Thinks You Should Buy Oil [View article]
    Another article that collects views by naming a successful investor in the headline. You provided little to no independent analysis, named a few obvious ETFs--OLEM excepted--and called it good. Not very useful and unfortunately all to common on SA. Next week Warren Buffet?
    Sep 11 01:26 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Lose Money While Waiting For Market Plunge [View article]
    I appreciate that you owned not always being right and that you choose to make explicit calls about market direction. It gives you more credibility in my mind because the only prognosticators that are always right are those that say "it could go up, down, or sideways." The useless ones. Unfortunately, there are lot's that can say such things so that it sounds like they know something the investing public does not.

    So, here's to being wrong once in a while!
    Aug 23 09:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Thrill Ride Thursday: Data Hurts So Good [View article]
    I wish you'd run for office Phil. You're so articulate on these issues.
    Aug 9 06:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
58 Comments
50 Likes