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  • Thrill Ride Thursday: Data Hurts So Good [View article]
    I wish you'd run for office Phil. You're so articulate on these issues.
    Aug 9, 2012. 06:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Halted In British Columbia, Quest Water Global Promotes Shares To U.S. Investors [View article]
    Wow, great thoroughness in your research on this scam. It happens that a friend of mine sent me a link to one of their scam adds: I emailed him a link to your article.
    Aug 9, 2012. 06:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Modest Increases In Inflation Will Crush Many Income Stocks [View article]
    Great article. The complexity of analysis required to be an informed dividend stock investor is well demonstrated by your article.
    Jun 25, 2012. 05:24 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The 99 Percent Portfolio [View article]
    Thanks fatpitch2. I've gotten a lot of helpful ideas from the comments, so I'll take another run at it and include those.
    Jun 15, 2012. 06:48 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The 99 Percent Portfolio [View article]
    Hi maxlib421: I see your logic in that PIXDX is long the enhanced RAFI 1000 index (US Stocks); PSSDX is short the S&P 500; while PFSDX is short and long. They’re all included because together they reduced volatility and improved returns versus the IVY ETF portfolio—see second table. That said, you're right that US stocks may end up under represented--but the results seem to indicate it's not hurting returns. A mystery!
    Jun 13, 2012. 08:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The 99 Percent Portfolio [View article]
    Varan: Please share your "risk parity based allocation" methodology. I'm intrigued.

    Re. dividend growth stocks, I do appreciate their wonderfulness (no annual fee, inflation protection, buy and hold), but they have one shortcoming that I can't yet overcome--you either need to be good at analyzing individual companies, have someone do it for you, or fly blind. I'm not trained in analyzing companies--I tend to be more interested in macro economic issues--don't have enough money to hire a top notch broker, and don't want to fly blind, so my choices are to buy an ETF or mutual fund focused on dividend growth. Certainly such a fund could fit nicely into the 99 percent portfolio, if one wanted to replace the Pimco stock funds.
    Jun 13, 2012. 04:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The 99 Percent Portfolio [View article]
    Thanks D. Olteanu. This is from Pimco's website for the real estate fund (PETDX):

    "How does this Fund work?

    Rather than invest directly in REITs, the Fund employs an "enhanced-index" strategy. Specifically, it uses REIT-index-linked derivative instruments, such as REIT swap agreements, to gain 100% exposure to the investment return of the Dow Jones U.S. Select REIT Total Return Index, a widely followed measure of REIT prices. The Fund fully collateralizes the REIT-index-linked derivative instruments by investing its assets in an actively-managed portfolio of inflation-indexed bonds and other fixed income securities. Inflation-indexed bonds offer a return that is linked to changes in the rate of inflation. As a result, the Fund attempts to employ a Double Real™ strategy, seeking to capitalize on the inflation-hedging properties of both REITS and inflation-indexed bonds. PIMCO has extensive experience in managing both index-linked securities and the collateral backing this type of exposure.

    Investors should note that the Fund’s investment objective is maximum real return (total return after inflation). While the Fund will pay interest income on a quarterly basis—which will derive largely from the collateral backing the REIT exposure and may be unpredictable—it is not primarily an income-producing vehicle."
    Jun 13, 2012. 03:11 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The 99 Percent Portfolio [View article]
    Thanks wkbird. My only problem with that is the low yield for the portfolio; income is part of the equation in making the portfolio appeal to the non-investor investor. Of course, PRPFX has shown itself to be great as far as total return goes though.
    Jun 13, 2012. 01:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The 99 Percent Portfolio [View article]
    Fatpitch2: I want to do some more research on other funds, but it's hard to find them with the high yield of the Pimco funds. The DoubleLine bond fund (DLTNX) is definitely a possible alternative for Pimco's Total Bond Fund; it does have a higher subsequent minimum investment ($500), so I went with Pimco's fund for simplicity.
    Jun 13, 2012. 01:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The 99 Percent Portfolio [View article]
    Thanks Varan. Interesting ideas. I'll do some more back testing to see what can be gained by more frequent rebalancing or basing allocations on past performance.
    Jun 13, 2012. 01:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The 99 Percent Portfolio [View article]
    Thanks for the question nedthebull. Nothing wrong with using ETFs per se--I use them in my other trading strategies. They don't have the high yields of the Pimco funds though and, for the non-investor type, they're more complicated to trade due to needing to know the number of shares to buy/sell.
    Jun 12, 2012. 07:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The 99 Percent Portfolio [View article]
    Thanks stevesauto. Glad it was helpful.
    Jun 12, 2012. 01:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Yields Say Stocks Are Cheap [View article]
    I think you're right to heavily weight reversion to the mean, but as you say, "Robert Shiller's model says the S&P 500 is still expensive with a cyclically adjusted price-earnings ratio of 21.2. (The historical average for Shiller's model is 16.4.)" We're not close to reverting to Shiller's mean, so it's entirely possible that the bond market is simply prescient in identifying high risks going forward. If the economy falls into a recession, the dividend yield could also fall as companies cut dividends, reducing the spread between treasury yields and stock yields. Only time will tell, but it seems prudent to be cautious for now until a new uptrend for stocks begins, successfully tests support, and moves to a higher high.
    Jun 1, 2012. 02:18 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold: A Seismic Move Is Coming [View article]
    I wish I knew what was going to happen in the future as surely as the author and commenters. You guys are probably very wealthy by now being able to do that while I chug away with lowly asset allocation schemes.

    But seriously, I can't understand one thing, if the premise is that the dollar is devalued by the tea drinking left so they can give iPads to all the Mexicans, job takers, and homos getting married, doesn't that assume the economy would also be booming, causing inflation and thus a rise in gold? And wouldn't stocks, commodities, and real estate all do well in such an environment?

    But I'm confused because the vision espoused by gold aficionados is usually a devalued dollar in a deflationary scenario--which is actually what Obama really wants because he secretly thinks America is rightfully the property of Africa--whereas Romney secretly wants everyone to move to Massachusetts, come out as gay, and have full health insurance coverage celebration days. Anyway, if the End of Days scenario works out, with all the burning of the liberals and all, wouldn't stuff be cheaper since there would be so few real Americans left?
    May 24, 2012. 02:07 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold: What's With The Hysteria? [View article]

    My Dad loves to say of politicians (and he has Alzheimers so he says it a lot): "They're all liars and whores." True enough.

    As far as solving the problems we're facing, let's start with: 1) Appointing a dictator (me)--like the Greeks used to do when facing impossible problems. Once installed, I promise to: 1) Retire the current tax code and replace it with a code of no more than three pages in length, 2) Eliminate the electoral college, 3) Implement fees on any citizen that does not vote equal to 10 percent of their net worth each time they fail to vote, 4) Make illegal all private financing of political campaigns and institute public financing for such purposes--to be paid for by the fee for not voting I suppose, 5) To pay for all other government services, including free health care, implement a tax on obesity , smoking, driving like an idiot, acting like an idiot, and thinking like an idiot(10% of net worth again? 10% for each offense? Lucky I'll be the dictator or that could get expensive). Okay, that's a start--we had better get busy as there is a lot to do.
    May 3, 2012. 12:55 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment