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Thomas Almond

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  • Mast Therapeutics: A Hidden Gem In An Under-served Market [View article]
    10/3/2013 Canaccord Genuity New Coverage Buy 3.00 target.
    Dec 3 06:48 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gevo's Run Of Bad Luck Continues [View article]
    @ T. A. "Ike" Kiefer

    As has been mentioned before; GEVO's model is not dependent upon using their product as a fuel additive. It is used as an industrial specialty chemical and from all indications is substantially cheaper to produce than the petroleum based counterpart.

    While the market for it is only a billion gallons per year today for its use as a specialty chemical that market is expected to grow to 5 billion gallons a year in less than 5 years.

    Gevo already has the strategic partnerships to be THE supplier for some of the biggest names in the corporate world. The letters of intent to buy all of the product they can produce are a matter of record.

    The only issue of concern is the ability to produce it on a commercial scale in both the quantity and regularity necessary to meet contractual deliveries on a timely basis.
    Nov 27 10:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Dangers Of Relying On Next-Gen Biofuel Cost Estimates [View article]
    @ Tristan

    It may be a bit late, but better late than never.

    I do apologize for what I did in comments when you published that article. I was not thinking rationally because you published it the day after I had just bought my shares and these articles do in fact effect share price. No reason for me to repeat the details. You know what I am talking about. I was hating you pretty bad at the time and so were a lot of other shareholders.

    P.S. I notice you completely ignored a response to the part of my article titled "Burning Down the Rumor Mill".

    I think I did a very effective job at refuting your analysis that Gevo was in danger of having the rug pulled out from under them if there was a cut in the renewable fuels standard mandate. :-)

    I got quite a few compliments from Gevo shareholders over that.

    They loved the spin I used to turn the whole thing arround by showing how it would not only not hurt them, but how it could actually help them.
    Nov 10 06:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Dangers Of Relying On Next-Gen Biofuel Cost Estimates [View article]
    @ arthurrt

    Your welcome. I enjoy them too even if the last one he wrote about Gevo did get under my skin. It did hive me the motivation to wrote a response article which I presume you have read.
    Nov 10 06:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Dangers Of Relying On Next-Gen Biofuel Cost Estimates [View article]
    @ Tristan R. Brown

    I am not so sure we have seen the bottom yet. The shorts have a long time to fart around and walk it down while longs slowly accumulate. It would not be hard to drop a dime, or more over a 3 hour period and see it bounce back fairly quick.

    I have a feeling we may see $1.25 at some point.

    Below a buck would be hard to see.

    A buck and teens maybe.

    So you see even @ $1.35 there is very little downside risk if you want to play the momentum in the lead up to some good PR's.

    The dilution could happen at anytime within the next 5 months, but my bet would be in January. In some cases that acts as a positive catalyst. Not sure how this one will play out. depends on the terms and who it is with. Khosla is the most popular guess. That might be the day to catch it at $1.25, or less, or watch the bottom pass you buy.

    Nov 9 07:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Dangers Of Relying On Next-Gen Biofuel Cost Estimates [View article]
    @ Tristan

    Maybe the other articles you wrote that I have not read are not one dimensional in the sense that I was suggesting. This one and the last one are.

    My points were not incongruous in the context of a comment where you are writing off the top of your head rather than composing and editing an article.

    When I made the first comment I had not yet known I was going to mention the patents which had not yet occurred to me until I had already written the other.

    You are taking the concept of downside risk to the extreme.

    Stocks generally have a market consensus of what a bottom is; and for Gevo it is not in the pennies. Far from it.

    Not all of the patents are just about the economic production of isobutanol, but have to do with process innovations, and downstream product applications that are valuable even if Gevo's technology does not pan out. There is every reason at this point to say that Gevo's technology is a good bet. The recent Conference Call was not that bad.

    The market's response to Gevo's Q3 earnings release were a result of their announced impending use of the ATM (dilution) to raise cash and not because they have not made progress.

    The price action on the PPS due to the negative sentiment was to be expected and much of it is temporary. The short interest will have to cover one day.

    If an investor gets caught off guard and loses money in such circumstances that is the failing of the investor. Not the company.

    I have bought and sold shares in Gevo three times in the past year and I have never lost money. I broke even this last time. I explained to you about that in a private message.

    It is all in the timing combined with proper DD.

    Gevo is now closer than ever to the end of its development stage.
    It is in the final stage of ramping up commercial production at a time when its PPS is as low as it has ever been.

    Much; if not all of the damage to the PPS from the impending dilution is already priced in.

    I think a major aspect of where your investment thesis becomes
    "one dimensional" is you seem to write from the standpoint of talking to an investor as though they intend to buy the stock and forget about it for years without ever maintaining up to date information to be able to anticipate events that call for a temporary strategic exit. Preferably at a profit. Then rebuy on a pull back.

    It is like you are writing to people who think investing is a "Fire and Forget" proposition.

    You can make great profit on the worst scam of a company there is if you know what you are doing. You can also lose it all.

    In the case of Gevo at least if you mess up it won't be a total loss. You might have to wait 6 months to recover your losses and another year, or two to see a major profit, but the potential is there. That is how many shareholders feel.

    When you write an article that impugns Gevo with broad and general attacks and ignore the positive nuances and potential specific to Gevo as opposed to the sector as a whole you upset those shareholders.
    Nov 8 07:39 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Dangers Of Relying On Next-Gen Biofuel Cost Estimates [View article]
    @ Tristan

    First off I would have to agree that paying $15 per share for Gevo, or any other development stage company during an IPO would be insane unless you are a billionaire venture capitalist.

    Catching shares of companies like GEVO once the hype is worn off; the PPS has dropped very low; and the risk/reward closes to a potential 10 bagger with little downside is another bet altogether.

    I don't recall ever arguing GEVO was a sure thing. Of course it is a gamble. The stock market is a casino. Where have I heard that before?

    Having said that Gevo has some very good things going for it that make it much more than just a mere longshot. They are well positioned in the industry with government contracts proving their product high quality and in the late stage of development with some of the best strategic partners a company could hope to have.

    With over 450+ patents to add a hefty value to the investment which are arguably just by themselves worth the price of admission at the current depressed level of the PPS it is pretty hard to justify Gevo being much of a risk (if any) at all.

    Your investment articles on this subject are one diminsional and do not take into account the strengths and weaknesses of individual companies.

    You focus on broad generalities about the technology and profitability being largely unproven. We get that, but those issues lose most of their impact when you break down the decision to invest in a particular company with its specific set of circumstances.
    Nov 8 05:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gevo: Not A One-Trick Pony [View article]
    @ Mongoose7916

    There are ways to dilute that mitigate some of the negative impact it has on shareholder value. They should take their time and do it right.

    No hurry. They still have 25 million cash. If they can put together better scientific and production data in a few months to show potential institutional investment consortiums where they are headed they may be able to negotiate better terms.
    Nov 5 07:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gevo: Not A One-Trick Pony [View article]
    Not a great ER. Will dilute soon to raise cash. Either 4th, or 1st quarter. Looks like the PPS will be going down instead of up.

    Were at least 6 more months away before I see any chance of major PPS movement.

    Catching it at the bottom during dilution will most likely be the best time to get in. I was locked and loaded with dry powder to BUY during after hours, but opted out.

    I think we may see the PPS tank to $1.40, or lower again. That is just a guess, but it is how I am feeling right now after reading the report and listening to the live conference call.

    Gruber avoided talking about production volume like it would cause panic if he told us despite reassuring us that everything is AOK. Basically we have at least another quarter of optimization. There were a few good things in the ER; just not enough to float my boat.

    I reserve the right to revise and extend my remarks.
    Nov 5 05:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Athersys: A Potential Stroke Therapy Monopoly On Hand [View article]
    Great news for Athersys
    Nov 4 12:23 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gevo: Not A One-Trick Pony [View article]
    @ T. A. "Ike" Kiefer

    You keep trying to use the small amount of revenue they have made from test contracts with the government to say it is meaningless revenue and fail to see the significance the seal of approval means for the general market outlook.

    Again Gevo has always targeted the specialty chemical market in any case. If their technology works they will have no problem selling all they can make at the premium prices. Of that I am firmly convinced.

    My only concern is verification of the process and technology to produce consistently on a commercial scale in order to meet regular contractual deliveries to provide a stready revenue stream and they don't have to produce that much to become profitable within a year.
    Nov 1 05:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gevo: Not A One-Trick Pony [View article]
    @ rjusadeldon

    There is always dilution to raise cash. Presumably the share price will have risen quite a bit before that happens giving investors a chance to get out at a good profit before watching the share price drop from it. Then there is the possibility of loans, financing, and venture capital. Little ahead ourselves worrying about that right now. We need those last two fermenters online and the technology verified in terms of commercial volume. If it does not work just as good in large scale production as it does in the laboratory then there is a big problem.

    Although my article said current demand is a billion gallons a year I had read somewhere recently that demand would likely rise to 5 billion a year within just a few years (2018).

    Produced economically and in volume it can easily make a market for itself that does not yet exist.
    Nov 1 05:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gevo: Not A One-Trick Pony [View article]
    @ T. A. "Ike" Kiefer

    Investment in renewable chemicals has become a priority for Japanese chemical firms
    25 October 2013

    Toray has signed an off-take deal with Gevo for the supply of bio-based paraxylene (PX) produced from isobutanol at a demonstration facility in Silsbee, Texas. The bio-PX is being used to produce a 100% bio-PET for fibres and films, where samples are already being offered to Toray’s business partners this year for market evaluation.
    Nov 1 05:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gevo: Not A One-Trick Pony [View article]
    @ johnnyvolvo

    Presuming the 2 fermenters that are online now are producing as intended and all 4 fermenters can be brought online before the end of the year I think we could see $2.50 to $3.00 in the near short term.

    Some will argue that is a big "IF". That of course is the gamble.
    Nov 1 09:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gevo: Not A One-Trick Pony [View article]
    Gevo got spotlighted on television news.

    Gevo opens doors for plant tour in Silsbee

    In Silsbee Gevo opened its doors for a plant tour Monday. When you drink a coke in the near future it will have Hardin County ties. Gevo is a key player in developing new coca-cola packaging
    Oct 31 10:25 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment