Seeking Alpha

Thomas Almond

View as an RSS Feed
View Thomas Almond's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Gevo: Not A One-Trick Pony [View article]
    Butanol sells for $6.50 per gallon vs. $2 per gallon for ethanol.
    Oct 31 10:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gevo: Not A One-Trick Pony [View article]
    @ T. A. "Ike" Kiefer

    Another point to make would be to say that unless we had access to a report like this the best any of us can do is talk through our hat.

    Green Solvents & Bio Solvents Market by Types, Applications & Geography - Forecasts to 2018

    Outside of a report like that all we have to go on is the market consensus based on what is available that heavily favors the bio fuel industry as a growing sector.
    Oct 31 07:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gevo: Not A One-Trick Pony [View article]
    @ T. A. "Ike" Kiefer

    First off you need to forget the Jet fuel angle.

    Its marine fuel. They are supplying the Coast Guard.

    For the consumer market every boat owner would rather pay more and get Gevo's mix than the standard E-10 on the market now because it hurts their engines. people are being forced to rebuild their carbarators every year.

    As I understand it they have delivery quota's through 2015 for product now that they cannot fill. That is one of the main reasons they need to ramp up production now.

    As for the rest; time will tell. Just because you could not find something does not mean it is not there, or won't be there.

    There development LLC has already retrofitted at least one plant that I know of.

    Then of course there is this...;highlight=
    Oct 30 05:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Despite big losses, Khosla keeps hope alive for biofuels investments [View news story]
    Burned Down the Rumor Mill
    Oct 30 07:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gevo: Not A One-Trick Pony [View article]
    Let us not forget who is backing GEVO.

    Total S.A. (French pronunciation: ​[tɔtal]; English /toʊˈtæl/ or /toʊˈtɑːl/) is a French multinational integrated oil and gas company and one of the six "Supermajor" oil companies in the world.

    Total, a partner with Gevo, has stated that the Union of Concerned Scientists plans to cut projected oil use in half by 2032 with a focus on the use of advanced biofuels. Check out the great infographic released by the UCS to illustrate the impact of this plan!
    Oct 30 06:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Ethanol Crush Spread Narrows As RIN Prices Sink [View article]
    I think you may want to read the center portion of this article that is subtitled... Burning Down the Rumor Mill
    Oct 29 02:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gevo's Run Of Bad Luck Continues [View article]
    Burning Down the Rumor Mill
    Oct 29 02:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GEVO: Rocket To The Moon (Part 3)  [View instapost]
    I got my GEVO article published.
    Oct 29 02:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Biodiesel Tide Is Going Out: Neste Oil Is Swimming Naked, 75% Downside [View article]
    I think you all may want to read the middle portion of this article that is subtitled...

    Burning Down the Rumor Mill
    Oct 29 01:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gevo: Not A One-Trick Pony [View article]
    Your welcome.
    Oct 29 12:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gevo's Run Of Bad Luck Continues [View article]
    @ T. A. "Ike" Kiefer

    If you are the type of investor who insists on proof beyond the shadow of any doubt then don't expect to get shares for under $2.

    The stock market is a big casino.

    You can lay out your chips and spread the odds any number of ways, but if you want 35 to 1 odds you are going to take the greatest risk.

    Has Gruber shown a history of lieing? No.

    Do his credentials and experience CONFIRM he is knowledgable enough to be able to give an estimate that is in the ball park? Yes.

    Is he infallable? Heck No



    p.s. I did not rely solely on Gruber to make my decision. I think the article I just had published today clarifies a number of good reasons why I am bullish. While I was at it I think I did a good job of burning down at least one major bearish argument.
    Oct 28 07:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gevo: Not A One-Trick Pony [View article]
    @ T. A. "Ike" Kiefer

    Lets not forget that there is always a very good chance of a buyout at some point. I can think of one major player who would be at the top of the list.

    CARGILL. After all it was their magic bug know-how and Gruber was their boy genious.


    One other major factor you are forgetting.

    GEVO has the patents. Over 450 of them.

    Patents that are not just for producing isobutanol, but rather for how you can use it and what it can be used for.

    That fact more than any other is what makes them a potential buyout target.
    Oct 28 04:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gevo: Not A One-Trick Pony [View article]
    @ T. A. "Ike" Kiefer

    Gevo not only has letters of intent to take all they can make through 2015 they also have a relationship with Coca Cola, Toray, and Purina.

    They also now have a relationship with Mansfield Oil presumably to act as a distributor and Mansfield has their fingers everywhere.

    I don't think you can reduce the picture down to a simple "competing with China", or "China makes it for less" issue. Maybe China prefers to use the 5 barrels of oil for gas rather than make 1 barrel of isobutanol. I know they were importing isobutanol not too long ago. What makes you think they are exporting it now anyway?

    Furthermore the US is not likely to allow a fledgling US GREEN industry to be undercut and sunk by a cheap Chinese replacement. Things are more complicated than that. Many things don't even make sense.

    Ask yourself why all the oil from Alaska is shipped to Asia instead of being brought to the lower 50?

    Would be much easier to just keep what we have in Alaska and forgoe the Middle East shipments.

    Does not make sense, but that is the way it works.

    I am not ready to buy the cheap Chinese argument. They need all the oil they can get and might as well keep and use whatever they do make themselves.

    Dupont and BP would not be gearing up to do exactly what GEVO is already doing if there was not major profits to be made.
    Oct 28 04:33 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gevo: Not A One-Trick Pony [View article]
    @ johnnyvolvo

    I did not mention this in the article because I was striving for short, sweet, and to the point to avoid having to resubmit it to the editors for a fourth time, (They busted my balls.) but I did come across this little tidbit while doing my research for the article.

    When extracting isobutanol from oil you only get about 20% of whatever the volume of oil is back in isobutanol.

    That means it would take x5 barrels of oil to get x1 barrel of isobutanol.

    If Dr. Gruber is right with regards to the Gift process being 36% to 40% (Even 30% would be good if you ask me.) cheaper to produce isobutanol than the oil extraction method I think the math works out pretty favorable.

    Obviously if the bottom fell out of the price of oil things could get pretty tough, but we also know that all the major producing countries that export oil base their entire economy on the revenues calculated within a tight range to what is right now.

    The price of oil is controlled and the countries producing it will not intentionally allow the price to fall because they need those revenues. They would reduce output to increase the price.

    Unless a global trade war heats up and the economic global governance policies directed by the BIS, IMF, and World Bank breaks down the price of oil should remain within a range that will not put Gevo's economics at risk. Anything is possible. You can find plenty of whispers of the danger of a currency war which would amount to the same thing. The stock market really is just a casino when you get right down to it.

    Regarding corn prices...

    When the draught hit and corn prices went through the roof the entire biofuel industry took it pretty hard.

    Right now prices are down (and falling). Gevo management already said that if it hits $4.00 they would top off their silo's. I think it is $4.30ish today.

    Oil Companies that produce oil buy futures contracts to hedge against price fluctuations. I would presume biofuel companies could do the same for corn.

    In any case by producing isobutanol and focusing on the specialty chemicles market Gevo will command higher prices than selling it as a fuel additive. They will have a great deal more stability during fluctuations than the vast majority of companies that just produce and sell product as a fuel additive which is all ethanol producers can do and they make up the vast majority of the biofuel producers anyway. Gevo's marketing strategy is not dependent on RIN credits (sks: Government Wellfare Checks) like the ethanol producers. That is why it will not matter if the EPA changes the mandate I was refering to in the article.

    Gevo's main competition is the BP/DuPont collaboration to build up Butamax and as I understand it their current plans won't get to where Gevo is now until sometime in 2015. Gevo is way ahead.

    Everything of course is dependent on Gevo's total production numbers holding up to the output projections.

    The analogy I like to use for myself for Gevo since I like to play development biotech (pharmaceutical) companies is this.

    Gevo has met all end points in the phase I, II, and III trials and submitted the NDA to the FDA. We are now waiting for the FDA to approve the drug.

    God forbid we get a complete response letter (CRL).

    The November 5th conference could be a catalyst for a major move up, or down. Then again it may just be neutral; as in an FDA delay.

    I know for a fact that I would not want to be invested in a short position with GEVO on November 5th.

    Of course many shorts buy calls to hedge, but I am not real sure that would work well with Gevo. Someone else would have to address that issue.

    Oct 28 02:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • GEVO: Rocket To The Moon (Part 3)  [View instapost]
    @ snosaint

    FYI Gevo does not produce ethanol.

    I would have not bought the stock if it had. :-)

    It is isobutanol.
    Oct 28 05:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment