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Thomas Finser

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  • LCA-Vision: The Case For Calculated Optimism [View article]
    That's a tough question. It all depends on one's time horizon, investment style, objectives...if you're buying in size or merely looking at few thousand shares for a PA. From a fundamental standpoint, the greater the time/distance from '08 the better. Things are so depressed for the industry that we merely need more time of "less bad" for this to work out. On the LVC procedure volumes, we're only slightly ahead of the depths of '09 when the sky was falling and capitalism was coming to and end. So anything that's less bad is good (including a choppy macro recovery). Any slowdown is probably pushing out the recovery in procedure volumes...by how much I don't know. I can't predict when investor sentiment turns. However, when it happens, look out.
    Jun 27 10:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • LCA-Vision: The Case For Calculated Optimism [View article]
    I am buying with that expectation. Of course I can only speak for myself. What is your definition of slowdown?
    Jun 27 10:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • LCA-Vision: The Case For Calculated Optimism [View article]
    Not many surprises given the Q4 commentary and the 4/2/13 procedure volume update. Closing one Visium center was somewhat of a surprise, more so because of the limited discussion on the call. I see Visium as a low probability high payoff option we're getting for free. The mkt. isn't expecting much if anything from this initiative (though some sell-siders are a tad more optimistic than I).
    May 1 09:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • LCA-Vision: The Case For Calculated Optimism [View article]
    Thanks for the thoughtful response Chris. I mentioned $107 state and fed NOLs are undiscounted in the financial snapshot section, tho admittedly this is less clear from the recap above. Agreed that $107 NOL is worth less when discounted to present. This story is less of an asset play (SOTP) and more of turnaround/operating leverage story with a freebie of NOLs.

    On procedure volume, they released comps in early April. The mkt. had a decent preview on the Q1 release. For seasonality, check out this link http://bit.ly/10TquqN. FSA reductions to $2,500 combined with choppy CCI account for some of Q1 YOY declines. Hope this helps.

    T
    Apr 30 09:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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