Thomas Kee

Recent Policy Decisions and a Greater Depression

Everyone wants solutions, and unfortunately the best answer is NOT what anyne wants to hear. The impending doom is coming. My advice is to become proactive. That is the best case for individuals. Because we are small, we are also nimble and capable. We will be able to outperform the brackish discipline of buy and hold money managers and mutual funds whose main objective is to collect fees, and we should prevail accordingly.

If you are of the mindset that everything must always go up, your mindset needs to change.

My advice to the government is to reign in spending and balance the budget. Then start paying off debt. Let failing companies fail. Let our capitalistic structure and darwinistic economy work itself out. Protect people along the way, as best as possible. But prepare for the worst.

No one wants to hear it, everyone wants an answer, but it is really too late already. The proper steps to avoid these problems had to be taken 5-10 years ago. Those proper steps were deficit reduction. We cannot live off of debt, and our government has not yet got the point.

We are at the mercy of a dauting economic cycle.

My advice: You better be nimble, or you will lose.

Keep it simple....that way no one can hurt you....

Cash is king. Opportunities will surface if you are patient.

THK.

Predatory Banking Practices Undermining the U.S. Consumer

Loaded...

Yeah, I found that during this investigation too...the banks claimed that the reason they changed the order was because they wanted to ensure that the more important transactions were paid first.

However, interestingly, they will pay all of the transactions no matter what order they come in or what size they are, so this claim is moot.

If they drew the line, and refused to pay, then there would be no overdraft charge, but they don't.

Predatory Banking Practices Undermining the U.S. Consumer

I knew I'd open a can of worms with that article, so I accept the good with the bad...

I completely agree, people who overdraw their accounts should be punished for it, and without question. I am not arguing that point. What I am arguing is the discretionary order posting policy of the banks in our country.

Should 1 punishment turn into 4?

Maybe this will be a good analogy for stock traders: What if your broker re-ordered your transactions from highest to lowest at will? Example: you made 6 trades one day, the last trade of the day was the biggest, and it put you over your margin limit. The penalty imposed by your broker is that you do not have access to the cash for 1 day for every over limit transaction; in this case you would have to sit out the next session and wait for your account to become tradable again. Some brokers operate like this as you know.

Now, implement the policies imposed by our banks: If those transactions were re-ordered highest to lowest, that largest (last) transaction would have caused you to exceed your buying power right away, and the number of penalty days would multiply. Instead of sitting out 1 day, you could reasonably sit out 5. This, due to a simple accounting policy and even though it was the last trade you made.

Obviously these are not directly analogous because some brokers treat margin differently, and these posting policies do not apply because brokers want you to trade all the time. But what if these policies did apply? Would you be concerned then?

More often than not, people who manage their money well who never incur these fees don't see what is taking place, and don’t care. However, if your business is based on consumer spending, maybe you should be concerned. The consumer is losing more than $30 Billion every year because of this. Banks are stealing money from millions of consumers every day, money that could otherwise filter down to other businesses.

If ALL banks, and this happens with ALL Banks, are allowed to re-arrange the order of your transaction to increase their internal overdraft charges (four - fold on average), aren't they imposing a rapacious practice on their accountholders?

In my example (article), you had the money in your account to pay the first 4 charges, but the last caused a penalty. Instead of penalizing you for 1 charge, the charge that took you over your limit, they actually penalize you for the 4 charges you had the money to pay for instead.

That's wrong, no matter who you are.

Further, now that the economy is weak, those same people who are struggling to pay mortgages on homes they could not afford (thanks to the creative mortgages they purchased from these same banks) are foreclosing at a higher rate as a direct result of this practice. Not only are they struggling to pay their normal bills and ARM payment, but now the bank is stealing money from them as well.

Argue the point of 'paying the price' for overdraft accounts all you want, and I'll agree with you that for every legal overdraft fee a charge should be imposed. However, when a bank imposes a predatory practice like this one onto accountholders who are struggling in an already weak economy which can, arguably, be directly tied to the mortgage banking policies of recent past, something should be done to curb it.

Banks should not be allowed to increase overdraft fees at will.

Oil Looks Toppy - Time to Short?

The recession is not energy induced...It is due to lower levels of personal liquidity levels as described by the Investment Rate. Review my website for details.

Oil Looks Toppy - Time to Short?

howdy fedj (sp) I hope all is well....yes...if we see this dip I expect an evetual reversal higher as well...

Tom.

Economic Drubbing Should Subside - Temporarily

Ther Investment Rate Measures the rate of change in investment inflows over extended periods of time. It is the foundation for this opinion and analysis. If you are not yet familiar with it, you can read about it on my site.

The Bernanke Fed's Next Interest Rate Cut Will Be Its Last

British:

I try to do the same, but I don't have patience for those that don't listen, because there are too many others out there that will. For those that don't listen, good luck.

The Bernanke Fed's Next Interest Rate Cut Will Be Its Last

British:

I don't see a problem, I only see trends. I also see anomalies. I also help others see them so they won't get in a situation. I am not an advocate for anything, I do not support or refute any policies, and, you may not like this, I don't care. Because brokers don't advise on the downside, I benefit. Being an advocate for change is not what I get paid to do. I get paid to help people protect their wealth and to make money while they do it. I do this well. If there are people who get abused because they don't listen, that's their fault, and their resposibility to engage their brokers, not mine.

The Bernanke Fed's Next Interest Rate Cut Will Be Its Last

British...yeah, the IR told us that 2007 was a transition year, and I began transitioning early, but the IR and this Target Indicator are different. Not, it took me a while with the stops, and the market increased 3x what it should based on our timing models, but we got it right! Our ultimate reversal trigger was 14120. We started at 12681.11. Again, risk controls were integral.

With that, the target indicator trends with notions that the Fed may begin a new leg int he cycle. IE, stop easing, or stop tightening. In this case, the Fed would stop easing after the next cut IMO, and therefore a sustained reversal would be reasonable.

The prior blips on fed rate cut news were short opps due to this same indicator.

My premiss is that this will be the last cut.

If that happens the Market mmay even fall first, but that will be a buying opp IMO.

If you want an update to the Investment Rate I'm having one on Thursday. You can clcik here if you want to listen in:

www1.gotomeeting.com/r...

Good trading.

THK.

Stagflation in the 1970s vs. Today’s Economy

Gary:

If our conomy is as weak as The Investment Rate suggests, foreign investments will be a negative, not a positive, as foreigners pull money out of the US and place it in healthier economies across the globe.

Stagflation in the 1970s vs. Today’s Economy

Will, you may want to read my piece on 'where's the inflation' There I related the growth of wages to food and energy inflation levels over the past 7 years.

Further, consumer liquidity by my definition relates directly to the amounts of excess capital consumers have to make investments into our economy. The anaysis is derived by evaluating lifetime investment patterns as they relate to systematic and aggressive investments all inclusive.

Details can be found here:

www.stocktradersdaily....

Good trading.

THK.

Maybe Investors Should Fight The Fed

Don't fight the fed = short when the fed is cutting and buy whe the fed is raising rates, IMHO.

The Great Fed Rate Cutting Myth: Look Out Below

I won't comment on all posts here, but in general...

The Fed did not start the Target Rate until 1997. This analysis stems from the beginning of the Fed offering a target rate.

Since then there are disctinct correlations. The above charts show that. They need not be exact, but they are good indicators, that's the point. If you can identify the turning points in the Fed Funds rate you can usually do the same in the Market.

Tough Decisions: What the Fed Should Do this Tuesday

I really don't think the discount rate has much impact, at least not nearly as much as the Target Rate.

PPI-CPI: I'm Even More Bearish Now

Uh Oh:

This article demonstrates the problems facing the Fed. The problems facing the Market is that the Market just isn't able to find the liquidity to move higher. In fact, liquidity levels will decline steadily for the next 16 years.

The Investment Rate tells you why:

www.stocktradersdaily....