Thomas Kee

Recent Policy Decisions and a Greater Depression

Everyone wants solutions, and unfortunately the best answer is NOT what anyne wants to hear. The impending doom is coming. My advice is to become proactive. That is the best case for individuals. Because we are small, we are also nimble and capable. We will be able to outperform the brackish discipline of buy and hold money managers and mutual funds whose main objective is to collect fees, and we should prevail accordingly.

If you are of the mindset that everything must always go up, your mindset needs to change.

My advice to the government is to reign in spending and balance the budget. Then start paying off debt. Let failing companies fail. Let our capitalistic structure and darwinistic economy work itself out. Protect people along the way, as best as possible. But prepare for the worst.

No one wants to hear it, everyone wants an answer, but it is really too late already. The proper steps to avoid these problems had to be taken 5-10 years ago. Those proper steps were deficit reduction. We cannot live off of debt, and our government has not yet got the point.

We are at the mercy of a dauting economic cycle.

My advice: You better be nimble, or you will lose.

Keep it simple....that way no one can hurt you....

Cash is king. Opportunities will surface if you are patient.

THK.

The Great Fed Rate Cutting Myth: Look Out Below

I won't comment on all posts here, but in general...

The Fed did not start the Target Rate until 1997. This analysis stems from the beginning of the Fed offering a target rate.

Since then there are disctinct correlations. The above charts show that. They need not be exact, but they are good indicators, that's the point. If you can identify the turning points in the Fed Funds rate you can usually do the same in the Market.