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Thomas Kennedy

 
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  • Increasing Churn Rate In The S&P 500: What's The Lifespan Of Your Stock? [View article]
    Good article, thanks for the interesting perspective and data. That makes a good case for ETFs vs mutual funds due to their ability to more tax effectively handle the churn in their portfolio.

    I would be less inclined to change my overall risk exposure by owning a greater proportion of small cap stocks (by owning a total market portfolio instead of the S&P 500), but it does make the case for owning a total market index instead of a small cap fund and a large cap fund.
    Nov 7, 2014. 09:19 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • McDonald's Recipe For Low-Risk, 7%+ Dividend Growth And Attractive Total Returns [View article]
    I'd far prefer owning the franchisor than the franchisee. At 2.5 times book and a similar yield to MCD, I see no compelling reason to own ARCO instead of MCD.
    Oct 18, 2014. 11:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • McDonald's Recipe For Low-Risk, 7%+ Dividend Growth And Attractive Total Returns [View article]
    I plan on initiating a position in the near future. Thank you for reading.
    Oct 16, 2014. 09:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ignore Sensationalist Articles About The Market Run-Up [View article]
    Thank you for reading
    Oct 6, 2014. 04:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ignore Sensationalist Articles About The Market Run-Up [View article]
    I respectfully disagree.

    I believe the QE programs had a large indirect effect on the stock market. By preventing a collapse of the banking system it reduced uncertainty and prevented significant unemployment/low capacity utilization.

    The effect of an end to QE will be somewhat uncertain. It will almost certainly increase earnings within the financial sector, will have a mixed impact on much of the rest of the economy, and may have a modest negative impact on overall valuations.

    I 100% disagree that the market is in a bubble
    Oct 6, 2014. 04:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ignore Sensationalist Articles About The Market Run-Up [View article]
    I actually agree that the market is modestly expensive, and I'd prefer investing after a pullback (of course, I'd always prefer investing after a pullback). I, however, wouldn't expect much more than a 10-20% pullback over the next few years and much more likely is simply below average returns over the next economic cycle.

    This article wasn't meant to discuss the finer points of valuation, it was more about dismissing people claiming the market needs to fall 50% to get back to normal, or that we've went "too far too fast".
    Oct 6, 2014. 03:54 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Ignore Sensationalist Articles About The Market Run-Up [View article]
    Thank you for reading, if I needed to summarize the article in a sentence that would probably be it.
    Oct 6, 2014. 03:41 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why the S&P 500's EPS Calculation Method Is Wrong [View article]
    Wow, I wasn't aware of this methodology. Its obviously wrong but I'm not sure how easily a market weighting could be done.

    If you use a simple weighted average at any given date to determine aggregate earnings it would skew values positively. All else equal, if a company reports lower earnings (relative to concensus, etc), its price will decline and when the earnings are later calculated there will be less of a hit from the lower earnings. The reverse would occur with positive earnings as they will then be calc'd at a higher weighting. If all companies reported at the same time this could be easily remedied by using the weightings pre-announcement, but since this isn't the case the effect of this skew would be somewhat difficult to remove.
    Oct 1, 2014. 06:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • These Currency-Based, Alternative ETFs Provide Better Diversification Than Gold [View article]
    Currencies have a tendency to enter into longer term trends. Many of the factors mentioned in the article will still benefit the dollar going forward
    Sep 24, 2014. 03:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • These Currency-Based, Alternative ETFs Provide Better Diversification Than Gold [View article]
    2 perfectly negatively correlated assets would not "completely offset."

    http://web.stanford.edu~wfsharpe/mia/rr/mia_r...

    An asset with a correlation coefficient less than 1 helps reduce risk more than an asset with a correlation coefficient of 0; assuming similar return prospects it makes sense to invest in an asset with a negative correlation coefficient relative to your portfolio.
    Sep 24, 2014. 03:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How A Billionaire's Portfolio Can Boost Your Returns [View article]
    I'd be curious to see backtesting as well. I would say a fair amount has to do with valuation especially over the short term and during bubbles, but a number of people on the current list have remained there for a while and their company's have reasonable current valuations.

    I'd say this list finds companies with:

    A) attractive fundamentals and growth
    B) bubble like valuations

    Also, in a backtest, I'd say the weighting of the portfolio would significantly affect its results. A market cap weight or equal weight portfolio may underperform or market perform, especially if the start year is during a bubble, but if its fundamentally weighted (by earnings, cash flow, etc) that would help filter out the companies with outrageous valuations and keep the better performers.
    Sep 18, 2014. 02:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How A Billionaire's Portfolio Can Boost Your Returns [View article]
    Thank you for reading.

    I had addressed that above with: "This figure [revenue growth] is backward looking, however, and many of these companies' growth rates are bound to slow in coming years. In order to find a worthwhile investment, investors must look to the future. Companies which have entered the more mature phase of their life cycle, such as Fox , Wal-Mart (NYSE:WMT), and Nike (NYSE:NKE) may not be able to create as much wealth going forward. Even Buffett has stated that Berkshire's growth going forward is likely to be significantly lower than past rates due to the difficulty in sustaining fast growth as a larger company."

    A lot of people would say that many of the companies mentioned in the article still have impressive returns ahead, however.
    Sep 17, 2014. 05:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Earn Equity-Like Returns With Less Risk In CWB, The Market Leading Convertible Bond ETF [View article]
    Thank you for reading, its tough to find much thats not near its highs at this point!
    Sep 11, 2014. 01:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why This Spin-Off ETF Keeps Beating The Market [View article]
    I was considering adding a comparison to a small cap ETF, but felt it was less relevant than comparing it to a midcap ETF as CSD's average market cap is as much as 4 times that of small cap ETFs.
    Sep 11, 2014. 01:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why This Spin-Off ETF Keeps Beating The Market [View article]
    Agreed gemfinder, this fact can't be expressed enough. The fund has tended to underperform during economic contractions and outperform during expansions, with a net result of outperformance over the last economic cycle. Especially now, this fund should be seen as a long term investment.
    Sep 10, 2014. 01:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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71 Comments
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