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Thomas Lott  

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  • EchoStar: Is This Stock About To Launch? [View article]
    Interesting. I am not that close to LORL, just the broad brushstrokes. I am not sure I can see Charlie unloading his baby, ie DISH however. There was a Citi research piece on this topic recently I heard, but I have not seen it. Any view on other buyers and their likelihood of bidding on LORL vs SATS?
    Mar 26, 2013. 12:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • EchoStar: Is This Stock About To Launch? [View article]
    Well that is an Interesting question Chris, thanks for your comment. At current multiples (7x for SATS, probably close to 10x for LORL?), it probably is a risk for SATS holders given the multiple disparity. Echostar does own a few LORL shares, but selfishly I would hope Charlie is just after some gains from a sale of Telesat/Loral. I generally think LORL is a better fit w/ the 3 big global satellite guys (SES, Intelsat, Eutelsat), but I guess you never really know. You have any thoughts?
    Mar 25, 2013. 11:54 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Should You Join Warren Buffett In Wells Fargo? [View article]
    Read this in case you missed:
    Mar 20, 2013. 03:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Calamos Asset Management: A Growing Dividend Play With Insider Buying [View article]
    Thx for the article. I only quibble w/ your P/E - as Erditcoku pointed out, if you exclude the cash/DTAs/investments net to the parent, then you get a P/E of only 4x. 4x! At a 10x P/E ratio, and using 70c in earnings (I excluded earnings from the investments), gets you a $15.50 stock price. A stunningly cheap stock. I suspect that is why John C has been loading up on shares. FD Long.
    Mar 20, 2013. 12:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why We Still Own Aeropostale [View article]
    Adib, nice article. Is there any owned real estate/stores here, or all leased? And, is there any way to figure out when the comp #s become positive again? They seem somewhat schizophrenic to be honest - ie down 9% in the last qtr, was down 4% for 2012. Last year it was down 9%...Any thoughts appreciated.
    Mar 20, 2013. 12:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Many Potential Catalysts For This Unloved Defense Stock [View article]
    Do you have a different view on EPS in 2013 vs the Street? Looks like they did $2.57 last year, and guided to $2.36 for 2013 - ie P/E using those #s looks a tad higher than your 8.6x figure.

    Also, what kind of LT, organic growth rate do you expect for the company, if any? Lots of acquisitions muddy the waters so to speak from a growth perspective, and as you know qoq revenue fell 9% in Q4. I guess I worry what happens to margins/earnings if rev continus to fall amidst forced government spending cuts. Thanks for the idea, thoughts appreciated.
    Mar 19, 2013. 11:54 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Everyone Should Own Wells Fargo [View article]
    I don't know the impact either, its pretty hard to quantify from the bleachers. But, its no question a bit of an overhang - hopefully will mean more chances to add in a bad tape however.
    Mar 18, 2013. 10:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dude, You're Not Getting DELL...Or AUTO [View article]
    It is hard not to get queasy reading the perks that the mgmt group at AUTO is getting in this deal, if approved by shareholders. A whopping $2.7mm in bonus payments to the top 3 execs (!), another 500k from accelerated options, PLUS they get to roll their stock into newco. That is a LOT of mgmt payments for a $37mm deal, almost 10%.

    So, mgmt/officers of the co own 26% of the stock, and 3 big holders control another 17, 18, and 13% (james martin, kinderhook ptrs, and baker st capital), or 48%. Together they could stop this deal - any color there has anyone spoken the any of them? They can't be happy.

    Thanks for the writeup Chris.
    Mar 18, 2013. 10:22 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Everyone Should Own Wells Fargo [View article]
    Thanks Fred, for doing the math and agree that entry price is v important. The only change I would suggest is that 15x seems a market multiple today, which I think would get you 67.51 plus the investments of roughly 45/share or $112 as a 1 year upside target. Downside could be $85-92 on the B's assuming the market is right about the floor at 1.20x book. Hard to argue that today is a great entry point, the risk-reward is closer to evenly balanced. I would characterize it as a strong "hold onto your shares", buy more at 95 or lower. Rgds, Tom
    Mar 18, 2013. 09:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Everyone Should Own Wells Fargo [View article]
    Fred, great idea. I did actually write up BRK when I initiated my position, if interested, you can read that piece here:

    It is a year and change old; however it provides a framework for viewing BRK. I did conclude that at $71 it was worth $97 in the upside case. I'd suggest plugging in current #s to get a current valuation. FWIW, BRK is today at 1.35x book, which is high relative to its 5 yr average. Seemingly the market likes Buffett's buyback at 1.2x book, which could be viewed as a floor for the stock at around $91. That is a moving floor however if the market falls.
    Rgds TL
    Mar 18, 2013. 11:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Outdoor Media: A Bidding War In The Making [View article]
    Thanks, very interesting piece. Couple questions. How do you view the $8.75 price on an EBITDA basis? Assuming the Outdoor channel segment EBITDA today is $11mm (assuming the co can negate the losses in production services and aerial cameras), I get a 15x TEV/EBITDA purchase price. Is that inline w/ some of the M&A comps in the space? Or is per sub really the most imp metric?

    I note too that the company has ramped up advertising too, ie perhaps EBITDA is understated while in a higher growth phase?

    Appreciate any thoughts.
    Mar 18, 2013. 11:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Everyone Should Own Wells Fargo [View article]
    Your welcome, Wells is in fact my 2nd biggest position behind BRK, so agree with your conviction. -T
    Mar 18, 2013. 08:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hedge Fund Forum For Members Of The Seeking Alpha Community [View instapost]
    Chris thanks for posting ideas here. They are really fantastic. I have invested in perhaps 15 hedge funds since 2001. They worked great until 2010 I'd say generally speaking. I worked at a couple and co launched a fund that was later sold in 2011. I assess them by mgmt, fees, gross and net exposure in various cycles, strategy of course and track record. Hard to say what future holds and I am doubtful that, net of fees, HFs on average will beat the S&P. Many are excellent of course but to me a low return world implies that the 2/20 fee structure is too high a hurdle for the avg HF investor to overcome. I do think the best value equity guys will still win over time, vs say conv arb or macro or distressed. To me the avg fund of funds will generate the lowest return of any asset class but perhaps treasuries. Anyway just my 2c!
    Mar 17, 2013. 02:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Everyone Should Own Wells Fargo [View article]
    Div likely to go to 30c/qtr plus more buybacks:

    Wells Fargo & Company (NYSE: WFC) announced today that the Federal Reserve Board ( has not objected to the Company’s 2013 Capital Plan under the recently concluded Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR) of the nation’s largest banks.
    The Company confirmed that its 2013 Capital Plan includes a proposed dividend rate of $0.30 per share for the second quarter of 2013, subject to consideration and approval by its Board of Directors at its regularly scheduled meeting in April. The plan also includes a proposed increase in common stock repurchase activity for 2013 compared with 2012.
    “We are extremely pleased to be able to reward our shareholders with increased distributions for 2013,” said Chairman and CEO John Stumpf. “Today’s decision by the Federal Reserve Board not to object to our 2013 Capital Plan allows us to further increase our common stock dividend in 2013 and to undertake repurchase activity to return more capital to our shareholders. Our ability to do this is a testament to our diversified business model, which has allowed us to serve more customers and continue to grow capital while at the same time generating record earnings and providing our shareholders with more return on their investment.”
    Mar 15, 2013. 11:16 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sell Your Linn Energy And Pick Up Pioneer Southwest At A Cheaper Valuation, Bigger Yield [View article]
    Thanks Phil, and that is a great point. I noted that Linn had net downward revisions over the past 3 years, many likely due to pricing, so excluding them would get you to $1.70 in F&D costs, which is better than the $2.12. I think a conversation w/ mgmt would be helpful to bridge the delta to $1.47. I have met the Linn guys many times, like the CEO, don't obviously like their DCF statements, but there could be some valid reasons they think F&D is lower, ie infill replacement drilling is cheaper, rig prices are lower now, whatever the case may. Thanks your comments are quite astute btw, didn't expect to get questions about 3 way collars and revisions. I'll have to check out your favorite ideas, or feel free to share here.
    Mar 14, 2013. 01:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment