Seeking Alpha

Thomas Lott

 
View as an RSS Feed
View Thomas Lott's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • 2 Love Sick REITs Trying Hard To Recreate What Has Yet To Be Created [View article]
    Brad thanks for the article, they are always a good read. I will say that given the run in SRC, its hard to bang to gong that this is a great entry point. Keep an eye on it after the merger closes as there will be a significant number of newly freely tradeable stock (no staggered selling terms for CCPT holders).

    However, I would suggest that when SRC was trading at 15-16, it was quite interesting, and even now, I am debating if I should take chips off the table. I agree that Shopko is too large (even proforma), but my diligence suggests that the chain is doing well - in fact growing and serving a nice niche sub walmart market. I echo the master lease comments too - in a Ch 11, its assume or reject on a contract by contract basis - with one master lease contract w/ Shopko, its all or nothing, no cherry picking of stores by lessees. That is far more valuable than individual, store by store leases.

    As for 84 Lumber, I am not a fan either. Perhaps housing is improving, but there clearly are issues with that chain. That said, lets quantify the impact of a full scale loss of that chain, and assume its re-leased at rates 80% lower than today, quite a hit I think anyone would agree with. That would only impact SRC's NOI proforma now by $15mm, taking it from roughly 580 to 565mm. Even at 565mm, PF SRC trades at 7.9% cap rate compared to a 5.25% cap rate for O. That makes for quite a bit of room for error, after even taking out the worst tenant! At similar cap rates, yes certainly O is the winner. At a fairly hefty 270 bps spread, I am not so sure.

    BTW, are you not long O or NNN? Thanks, Tom
    Jan 23, 2013. 11:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Total Looks Extremely Cheap [View article]
    Yes I only the ADR TOT. In fact I own this in a fidelity acct too, and they took out 15% as well. perhaps call fidelity and ask why higher?
    Jan 23, 2013. 06:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • James Kostohryz Positions For 2012: 100% Cash The Only Way To Play This Market [View article]
    I hear this year James is insisting on a 120% long cash position!
    Jan 23, 2013. 06:24 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Total Looks Extremely Cheap [View article]
    hmmm...schwab took out 15%
    Jan 23, 2013. 04:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Calamos Asset Management: Exceedingly Cheap At 3.5x Earnings With A 4.4% Yield [View article]
    Yes outflows have been a problem this year. Here is a good summary on one fund from morningstar which importantly mentions Gary Black, a new board member and co-CIO. This guy has a very impressive resume (harvard/wharton/goldm... ceo), and likely to take over from John Calamos (who is 71):

    "This fund has a strong long-term performance record against various peer groups. While we like the management team and believe it capable of running this fund, we do have a slight concern over Calamos' companywide thesis used for portfolio construction. This creates cohesion among funds but can lead to multiple funds with similar holdings. (For example, four of the five Calamos closed-end funds hold Intel INTC and a number of other top-10 holdings are in multiple portfolios.) What's more, this kind of top-down authoritarian approach can make dissension and disagreement by analysts more difficult to voice. Largely for this reason, the fund misses our top rating. CHY has earned a Morningstar Analyst Rating of Silver. But, the firm recently hired some top managers from outside the firm. Notably, Gary Black, former CEO of Janus. Black will become the firm's global co-CIO and Nick Calamos will step back from his role while continuing to serve on the board. We are glad to see these changes and will watch the developments closely before considering a ratings change."

    Honestly I think Black will be the key to making this work, but the ultimate risk is naturally that fund performance worsens and capital leaves. In that case, it might trade below book (8.38) ala ART. ART however has dropped from 56bb to 14bb in assets since end of 2009 to today, far different than here.
    Jan 17, 2013. 04:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Calamos Asset Management: Exceedingly Cheap At 3.5x Earnings With A 4.4% Yield [View article]
    HJ thanks, hard to debate anything you have said. I do believe the market has penalized CLMS for its convoluted ownership structure. Perhaps a misunderstanding of how many shares the family could take in a conversion is also a contributing factor. I guess time will tell, and I hope management continues to up the dividend at the very least to put more cash in shareholders hands. Oh, and I did exclude the investment income in the 73c EPS figure if that wasnt clear.
    Jan 16, 2013. 04:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Calamos Asset Management: Exceedingly Cheap At 3.5x Earnings With A 4.4% Yield [View article]
    stem good question, and thanks for reading. Honestly I am not sure that they really have a competitive advantage, as AUM has been generally following the cycle, neither up or down meaningfully over the past few years. I believe that mgmt grew up as convert specialists, which has the advantage of requiring knowledge of both equities and bonds. Hopefully that means they can generally offer decent products either way.
    Jan 16, 2013. 04:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Calamos Asset Management: Exceedingly Cheap At 3.5x Earnings With A 4.4% Yield [View article]
    Yes agree Tim, that makes perfect sense. Either way, distribution prior or after conversion would yield a ton of value to holders.
    Jan 16, 2013. 04:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Calamos Asset Management: Exceedingly Cheap At 3.5x Earnings With A 4.4% Yield [View article]
    Yes I hear you on the dead money argument, although with a nice 4.5% dividend, I can clip a nice coupon while I wait. Its about the highest yielding money manager, which is actually amazing considering it holds what amounts to $6.71 in pure cash/investments net to CLMS.
    Jan 16, 2013. 11:34 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Calamos Asset Management: Exceedingly Cheap At 3.5x Earnings With A 4.4% Yield [View article]
    Good questions. So here is what I can tell you:

    1) the CLMS holdco purchased 22% (more like 20% at the time) of the shares of the opco with proceeds from the IPO. They stepped up the tax basis, and incurred goodwill which annually gives them essentially a tax writeoff by $8mm/year, thru 2019. As long as opco is profitable, the DTA's are usable. Its not from a history of operating losses.

    2) A small amount of income is from gains on their cash/investments at opco. So, I backed those out to get to just the management fees. Notice that the street is forecasting 86c in EPS for 2012, whereas I excluded gains to get to my 73c in fee based EPS. So, not a hedge fund as you ask, most of income is from mutual fund/ETF/managed account fees, which is obviously preferable.

    3) They went public in 2004 - I am sure the family wanted some liquidity - CLMS sold 19mm shares I think (about same as today) and bought 20% of the opco. Family took half the proceeds from that sale and invested them in their own funds, and the other half I am sure they used for family liquidity/diversificat... They also converted many employees shares in a private co to the CMLS public shares - ie giving them a nice currency for compensation plus liquidity.

    4) I am not sure to be honest. They have been around managing capital at calamos for 3 decades plus now. They definitely take more of the CF in the form of divs from the opco, but then, they also raised the div last summer for the minority holders (us), and lots of insiders are buying shares in CMLS as well including board members. I would like them to take a more proactive stance on addressing the cash at the holdco - i cannot imagine why they want to keep it there but then they also keep tons of cash at the opco too. Its a dead weight. Fortunately it seems legally impossible for the family to try to double dip into holdco cash, and they spell out in all their financials that they are not entitled to it.
    Jan 16, 2013. 11:30 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Doubling The Return Of The S&P 500 Over 20 Years [View article]
    Interesting piece, thanks. I guess I'd much rather own BRK than trying to trade the high/low vol every quarter. Did you factor in trading costs? 4 trades/year is a lot more than 0 trades w/ Buffett.
    Jan 15, 2013. 11:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lots Of Real Estate Value At Assisted Living Concepts [View article]
    They are selling their locations in NJ, 13 facilities if memory serves. As far as your regional question, its a good one, but I havent looked at comp sales locations as much. They all are quite spread out. I am not sure the ALC facilities would be considers substandard - after all Extendicare put them together and these units are trading a fair amt below cost. They haven't skimped on maintenance capex, and occupancy used to be in the mid 80s. But yes, these arent the Ritz either. Prior mgmt was cheap in regards to staffing.
    Jan 10, 2013. 03:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lots Of Real Estate Value At Assisted Living Concepts [View article]
    I am not sure if ALC is different from the industry, but generally its about 24 months.
    Jan 10, 2013. 03:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Does C.H. Robinson Have A Moat? [View article]
    Nice work. Any thoughts on XPO? Impressive mgmt there.
    Jan 10, 2013. 03:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amira Nature Foods Looks To Become A Major Emerging Market Brand [View article]
    Yes I am no expert in IFRS acct admittedly. I always look first at a co's CF statement, and this one struck me as v odd. Perhaps the company has a valid explanation. Good luck.
    Jan 9, 2013. 11:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
629 Comments
550 Likes