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Thomas Lott  

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  • Allied Nevada: Buying Gold At $170 Per Ounce [View article]
    Sure, nothing new really. The miners clearly are still in the penalty box, but that wont last forever. I plan to buy more at 20 if gets there.
    Feb 13, 2013. 12:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ellington Financial: The Best Mortgage 'REIT' At A Healthy Discount To Book Value [View article]
    Upped div to 77c, plus a special div of 75c on the way.
    Feb 12, 2013. 08:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amerco: Move And Store Your Cash In This Stock [View article]
    Very informative thanks. One question. Can you tell how much of the improved margins are the result of cyclical factors here, or those resulting from secular elements, ie market share gains, improved logistics, etc? It is hard to argue with your notion that higher EBITDAR margins are sustainable going forward, but curious too when the inevitable recession hits, what trough margins to expect. Appreciate any thoughts, great write up.
    Feb 12, 2013. 01:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • FTI Consulting: Time To Buy This Oversold Stock [View article]
    Thanks Eli, yes this has been a popular short idea for a long time, and the only part of the short thesis that really holds water to me are the forgivable loans to employees. Excessive comp (where isnt there excessive comp?), stock price guarantees (who cares if stock is heading up?), too many stock options (actual share count on a diluted basis is declining). I guess I am not sure who shorts a stock down after its fallen 45%, after management has also just announced a stock buyback plan that could take out up to 25% of the shares outstanding? Against a heavily shorted stock already, that seems simply insane.

    That said, I recommend taking profits in this name as I did very recently.
    Feb 11, 2013. 09:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • You Can Be A Stock Market Genius: Uncover The Secret Hiding Places Of Stock Market Profits [View article]
    Great book, great guy. Have had the pleasure of meeting Joel a couple of times and have read all his stuff. Thanks for being a contributor here, your stuff is top notch.
    Feb 9, 2013. 05:31 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tronox: This 4.4% Dividend Yield Equity Trades At A Bargain 5x Earnings [View article]
    Probably b/c of the Dupont plant delay in Mexico. Perhaps coupled with a short squeeze.
    Feb 8, 2013. 04:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Is Wrong With Microsoft? [View article]
    The problem with msft is its capital allocation decisions, eg Skype for 8.5bb, Well here is a list
    Feb 2, 2013. 12:40 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Teva Pharmaceuticals: Beaten, Bludgeoned And Brutalized - It's A Buy [View article]
    Thanks for taking the time to write this up. Any thoughts as to why the topline seems to be declining overall from 2012 (guidance 20.4BB) to 2013 (guidance 20BB). Not a lot, but are generic seeing price erosion/competition, more than offsetting new launches? Copazone is still growing, yes?

    Also, EPS is actually expected to fall from $5.34/share for 2012 to $5.00 even for 2013 (acc to mgmt guidance). So, how did you get $5.60 in 2013 estimated EPS when guidance is $5.00, and the Street is at $5.09?

    I figure if you value this, its hard to put a lot of earnings from Copazone after 2015 - you have a co that does $2.00 in EPS from Copazone roughly, and $3.00 from "generics/other." $3.00 at a 14 mult where comps trade is $42. Am i supposed to assume that the PV of copazone is more than 3 years of earnings, and if so, how much? Any history of drugs off patent continuing to sell at high prices/margins?

    No position here, but intrigued by potential upside. Am getting to roughly 48 value for Teva if they can milk 3 more years of earnings out of Copazon (3x 2 in EPS per year = $6) plus the $42 that other businesses are worth. That would get you 25% upside.
    Am a little bothered by the constantly recurring "non-recurring" items, continued missed guidance, and FCF/share that seems to be quite a bit lower than non-GAAP EPS. Declining core business seems to fly in the face of patent cliffs.

    I think there is upside if new CEO is underpromising, anyone have any more color on this guy Levin?
    Jan 31, 2013. 11:23 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Allied Nevada: Buying Gold At $170 Per Ounce [View article]
    From mgmt, the 10K, company presentations/materials. I honestly did not read sell side research on this one (although I often do, its not as bad as the readers on this site usually say!).
    Jan 31, 2013. 04:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Allied Nevada: Buying Gold At $170 Per Ounce [View article]
    I filtered out the non-US, non-CDN guys. Just didnt want expropriation/strike/p... risk. I think mgmt at ANV seems quite solid, listen to a couple of their calls, but overpromising here is a risk.
    Jan 31, 2013. 01:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Sell Sprint And Buy Softbank [View article]
    Unsponsored. Very impressive #s btw today at Softbank.
    Jan 31, 2013. 12:04 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • National Beverage Is Priced To Deliver Excellent Shareholder Returns [View article]
    Insider thanks for the thoughts. This one has been on my list, popped up on a screen not too long ago. Havent bought it, there is a lot to like here but I think a lot of weak holders bought in for the special div. Waiting for decent entry price. More work required too, gut tells me at 12-13, its a pretty good buy, but need to get comfort w/ the mgmt convert and compensation concerns first.

    I do note that stock options are not a big part of comp, clearly cash is. No SEC filings yet on the 20mm pfd issued to mgmt - need to see that i assume will be filed in an 8K soon. I think you are right that w/ mgmt owning 75% of the company, you as a minority holder are along for the ride. In any case, mgmt owns 450mm plus of stock, and 20mm of pfds. So, I somehow doubt they tank their stock to extract value from a pfd instrument.
    Jan 30, 2013. 04:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Can Active Investing Beat The Market? [View article]
    "Only passively leveraging market indices (and not active investing) can beat the market over the long run"

    Wow, I dont even know where to start with this statement. Recommending leveraging long indices to beat the market is an exceedingly risky strategy!!! I think readers should be VERY careful here! This is just plain wrong and foolish.

    There are far far more intelligent, better ways to beat the market. Start with Joel Greenblatt's book the Little Book that Beats the Mkt, and check out his magic formula funds like FVSAX, FVVAX, etc. Then consider BRK or MKL or an equal weighted index ETF (as opposed to market wtd).

    There are good managers who beat the market too, in fact 20% of them do acc to this article! They are all over the place. Do not run out and buy 3x leveraged long ultra funds, that is simply a terrible strategy.
    Jan 30, 2013. 12:39 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Allied Nevada: Buying Gold At $170 Per Ounce [View article]
    Great critique of the industry - seems all mining CEOs should be required to read this. No capital discipline in the industry, and very little shareholder friendliness, not to mention escalating costs, declining grades, etc. I am sure I wont exactly catch the bottom here, but miners have to soon start paying attention to angry shareholders.
    Jan 29, 2013. 11:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Is Statoil Undervalued? [View article]
    No no, you got that backwards! Yesterdays laggards are tomorrows leaders! Thanks for the good article tho. Best, Tom
    Jan 29, 2013. 11:26 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment