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Thomas Lott

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  • 4 Dividend Plays In Billionaire David Einhorn's Portfolio [View article]
    In defense of the author, I look at 2 articles, one that says, Chuck Carnevale recommends Sysco, or another that says, David Einhorn likes these stocks. Which one am I more likely to read? The Einhorn article.

    Anyone that is arrogant enough to criticize Einhorn in my opinion, and instead opt to see what a computer generated FAST graphs author recommends is destined for the investing poorhouse. The notion that there are too many crummy articles that say "buy these 4 dividend stocks" is completely valid, don't get me wrong. But fund holding articles are extremely valuable here, much more so than what some random kid trying to make $10 per article says.

    How else can an investor sift through the 10,000 stocks in the world to focus on doing research? I do my own research, but I always start my lists with what Tepper, Einhorn, Buffett, Leob et al own and like. These are people that do far more due diligence than Chuck for instance, sorry. I don't mean to single out Chuck, he is quite good, one of the better ones here (and the Sysco piece was well done). But if he were amazing, he'd be a billionaire like the ones above.
    May 26 10:37 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Greenlight Capital Re - A Mini-Berkshire In The Making? [View article]
    GLRE got as low as 0.90x book during the crisis, trading to a low of 12 on a 14 dollar book. But it was brief. Last summer it got to around 1.05x book, and I bought some figuring downside was 15% and upside to its high P/B levels, which are roughly 1.5x book. I'd say the historical average is about 1.25x book over time. My math is that book today is $22.75 (book march 31 = $23.29 less 2% april returns X $1030 investment portfolio divided by 38mm shares).
    May 6 09:51 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Greenlight Capital Re - A Mini-Berkshire In The Making? [View article]
    Here was my similarly titled article, Greenlight Capital: The Next Berkshire Hathaway from last Fall.

    Dan you really shouldn't be writing about (or buying) stocks without at the very least reading the 10Ks and Qs. Believing that book value is $28 per share is a tad embarrassing, sorry. FD Long GLRE.
    May 5 04:04 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 4 Questions For David Einhorn [View article]
    I will say this, you better really know what you are doing by taking a levered long bet against Einhorn (assuming he is short). Your attempts to discredit him are weak, he does tremendous amounts of due diligence on his names. You ought to spend less time criticizing him and more time evaluating HLF. I wish you luck in your trade, but my bet is on the other horse.

    FD Long GLRE.
    May 3 11:57 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Green Mountain Gets Roasted Again [View article]
    Bill, sorry but you should just stop writing about GMCR. You wrote last fall that it was a buy at 82, that Einhorn was wrong. Now you are shorting it at 30???? Or wait, maybe you'll buy it at 25????

    Cmon, move on to the next one, this is ridiculous.
    May 3 11:34 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Total Looks Extremely Cheap [View article]
    that's a great question. if Hollande wins, clearly the tax and spend ideology will be more prevalent in France. With 77% of Total's revenue coming from subsidiaries outside France, its hard to say that it would be a game changer though. will Hollande favor unions and mean somewhat higher wages for french workers? perhaps, but not a certainty and again almost 2/3s of Totals workers are outside of France. The french corporate tax rate of 33.3% could go up, but then foreign earnings aren't subject to french taxation, so personally I think its unlikely a socialist victory has a meaningful impact.
    Apr 21 08:57 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Appealing Dividend Candidates: Markwest Energy Partners Is Our Play Of Choice [View article]
    Quite a data dump on MWE, been looking at it lately. be careful, they just spent $2.1BB acquiring the Mark West Liberty JV portion that they don't own. thats a lot of cash for a $9BB TEV company (i did count the B shares in that calculation). Looks like they paid 21x EBITDA, quite rich even for an industry where comps trade at 10-15x. the kicker is, the 20mm B shares issued to the seller wont be counted in the share count until they begin to convert to common units in July 2013. Mgmt however has no problems including the CF from the deal right away. I have other quibbles here, and the chart looks fantastic, but do your work on this one before buying this one at lofty prices. Oh, and this one does have commodity risk in their keep whole contracts, slightly short natgas and very long NGLs, which has been fantastic for the equity (while oil is at highs, and gas at lows). but if oil breaks down and gas moves back up (my guess on the next major move in hydrocarbons), this one will feel the pressure.
    Apr 19 12:19 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Before 'Obamacare' Falls Sell The Health Insurers [View article]
    Dana with all due respect, I think your conclusion is just flat wrong. You finish your article by saying that Obamacare is the best possible outcome for the insurers. Well, the market this week clearly thinks the opposite. In fact, if you look at some of the provisions of the bill that impact insurers, namely the comparative effective research fee, the annual health insurer fee (a big one), and the excise tax on cadillac plans, then all i can say is the insurer ROEs will be HIGHER without the PPACA (ie Obamacare)!

    I have been following insurance stocks a long time, I am quite certain they will do better without the government regulating prices down and adding fees to their cost structures. You also ask, How will insurer succeed without Obamacare? Well, they have been generating 20% returns on capital for years without it. I call that a very successful business.

    To see some specifics on what PPACA does to CI and other insurers, see this piece:

    FD long CI.
    Mar 31 11:52 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Time For Gold Miners? [View article]
    Check your math on the AU div. Mgmt guided to 4 rand for 2012 which is approx 52c or a 1.4% yield. That is you can't annualized the q4 div of 2 rand.
    Mar 20 11:44 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • In Search Of Dividends? Look Outside The U.S. [View article]
    Funny coincidence, Barron's today published "supersized dividends await across the pond." hmmm.

    They tout european telecom provides like TEF, FTE, DTEGY, and TI. Doesn't mention VOD, but I would throw it out there too.
    Mar 12 09:36 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Preparing Your Portfolio For Possible Mid-East Turmoil [View article]
    Agree w/ EMC2. Over the last 10 years chargeable costs (contractually defined in the 10K, which is required reading if you own this) were quite low. in 2012, chargeable costs look like they will be just under $30/barrel. By 2022, however, they will be $79-80 per barrel. oil has to hit $200 a barrel to keep a $10 distribution. At 100 a barrel in 2022, there is close to zero distribution.

    buyer beware, i am 100% sure that this will not outperform the S&P over the next decade. If oil is 150 by then, your distribution will still be only $5/share, half where they are today. this may work for 3, 4 perhaps 5 years, but eventually you dont want to be the unlucky one holding this bag. go buy something in the bakken.
    Mar 12 09:29 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Wal-Mart: The World's Greatest Retailer, After A Long Hiatus, Is A Solid Buy [View article]
    Chuck, nice article thanks. I would add my specific estimates: I think EPS will approach $6.50 a share by 2015. Using a 14x multiple (below its historical avg) gets a valuation of $90. Add in the dividends of approx $1.50 a year ($1.46 now but will grow), and you can get a total return of $95 on a 60 stock is 16% a year in return over next 3 yrs. Not far off from your charted estimates, but throwing it out there. Have you looked at TIF after today?

    FD Long WMT.
    Jan 10 01:51 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Assessing My Recommendations In 2011 [View article]
    I was talking about cash dividends received since purchasing the stocks. Yields are not discussed at all as this was a retrospective to determine total returns on names since recommending them here and buying them myself.

    The articles I write are quite thorough - here is what I wrote on NLY back in October:
    Dec 31 10:54 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Assessing My Recommendations In 2011 [View article]
    Good comment thanks. Sprint is a great spec at these prices.
    Dec 30 06:29 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • An Open Letter To Tim Cook, CEO Of Apple Incorporated [View article]
    For the record, this analysis only used the domestically held cash, ie cash held in the US, that has already been subjected to tax. I think a lot of people missed that in the text. I will quote from the article:

    As a side note, even if you can only use 1/3 of your cash (that is the cash domestically held) for both dividends and buybacks, my numbers suggest that that would not be an issue. Apple would never see a negative domestic cash balance (i.e. you wouldn’t need to borrow) even if all dividends and buybacks in this example had to come from US domiciled cash holdings.
    Dec 9 12:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment