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Thomas Lott  

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  • The Selling In PIMCO's High Income Fund Continues [View article]
    I think PDI is the most interesting Pimco CEF right now. It trades at a discount to NAV, its portfolio manager (dan ivascyn) has personally bought $5mm of PDI over the past 3-4 months (that is a lot for a 42 yr old guy I am sure). Ivanscyn also runs Pimco Income fund, one of the best performing funds at the firm, and outperforming Bill Gross over the past 5 years. Read about him here, he's a star manager there:

    http://bloom.bg/12uCJGD

    They own non-agency mortgages at big discounts to par, which are benefiting directly from lower delinquencies and higher home prices. Not sure I would want to pay even a 10% premium for a HY CEF that is invested in a space with the tightest spreads to treasuries seen in a long time.
    Dec 16, 2012. 10:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Atlas Pipeline: Pullback On Recent Acquisition And Offering Creates Opportunity [View article]
    Check w/ a tax expert before putting MLPs into an IRA - I think you can trigger certain tax problems by doing so.
    Dec 15, 2012. 09:43 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Atlas Pipeline: Pullback On Recent Acquisition And Offering Creates Opportunity [View article]
    Thanks rru2 sounds very interesting!
    Dec 13, 2012. 09:51 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • North Atlantic Drilling: Cheapest Offshore Driller With A Huge 9% Yield [View article]
    I would actually argue the opposite. Of course I am biased, but SDRL is listing this entity so that the market can understand the premium nature of this business, which they would never get credit for in the public markets if buried amongst SDRL's assets. The harsh environment rigs operate in a protected region, have 100% utilization, and much better margins and dayrates than the rest of their fleet. This is not the unwanted orphan, this is the premium business separated ala MDLZ (if you will!).

    I agree generally with your point, that is I have seen a number of companies spun out with legacy asbestos claims, with pension problems, etc, that are means of unloading problem assets. But this is not the reason for doing so here.
    Dec 6, 2012. 08:07 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • North Atlantic Drilling: Cheapest Offshore Driller With A Huge 9% Yield [View article]
    Thanks. I originally bought the stock this summer, added very recently after they announced their S-1 filing. I wish I could find that S-1 doc, it would tell me how much stock SDRL wants to sell (doesnt appear to be public yet). I would speculate that they want to keep 51%, and sell 23% give or take, which would be around $500mm of stock.
    Dec 3, 2012. 03:10 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Aircastle Limited: Significantly Undervalued At 6x Earnings, Sports A 6.0% Dividend Yield [View article]
    There are a handful of public guys like AER, FLY, AYR of course, and AL. GE and CIT are involved in aircraft leasing, plus a lot of private guys yes. The marginal fleet lessors left the business after the 2008 crisis. I'd say there is a clear shift toward this model.
    Nov 30, 2012. 04:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Aircastle Limited: Significantly Undervalued At 6x Earnings, Sports A 6.0% Dividend Yield [View article]
    Smoking gun? I guess it is a possibility, or perhaps a macro call on the global economy. I really cannot say. But then, they were buyers and holders (ie, not sellers) much higher too, well above book value so not sure their trades tell you much to be honest. Oh, and having worked at a similar shop to Fortress (a distressed hedge fund), I can say without question that even smart guys say "get me out" all the time on a bad trade!
    Nov 30, 2012. 03:14 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Norfolk Southern: Not A Buying Opportunity [View article]
    Thanks for the write up. what kind of margins does NSC do on coal vs general merchandise? Thx
    Nov 22, 2012. 12:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Great 7% Cash Alternative Bond [View article]
    I would never own more than 4-5% in one position.
    Nov 19, 2012. 11:04 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Great 7% Cash Alternative Bond [View article]
    My sense is that a 1-2% rate move wouldnt do much to the bonds. Given the fact that they are likely to be redeemed in a year or 2, I think its appropriate to deem them a very low duration piece of paper.
    Nov 19, 2012. 08:24 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Great 7% Cash Alternative Bond [View article]
    True, but keep in mind that Moody's downgraded Nexen in March 2009, when leverage was 1.8x EBITDA. Today, its 0.6x leveraged and the rating hasnt changed. I wouldn't spend too much time worrying about what they do. I recall in 2008 subprime CDO's were AAA rated too.
    Nov 19, 2012. 08:23 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tronox: This 4.4% Dividend Yield Equity Trades At A Bargain 5x Earnings [View article]
    Q3:
    http://bit.ly/VZaGPd

    I get FCF/share of 57c for Q3, which annualizes to $2.27 per share. That is EBITDA less int/capex/taxes. Q3 is seasonally weak too, so while $3 in FCF/share next year might be a tad high, I submit that its still within the ballpark for FCF/share for 2013.
    Nov 12, 2012. 09:45 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Consider Some Annaly Capital [View article]
    Tend to agree. The Fed is wrecking their business model by buying mortgage paper. Spreads will not provide much in the way of earnings probably for a long time now. I'd estimate $1.50. I sold a bunch really well (like mid 17), and some yesterday so that my position is now pretty small. I think its a buy much lower, like $13. NAV is 16.22/share, and with a book at 103.7 avg price, I think you can see 25CPR take BV/share to 15. At 14.86, I probably wait for better days to exit...perhaps 15.50 or higher. But with the Fed meddling, its hard to see much excitement in the way of spreads for a long time.
    Nov 7, 2012. 03:02 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Sell Sprint And Buy Softbank [View article]
    http://bit.ly/Q7L6ps

    SoftBank results out
    Oct 31, 2012. 10:59 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Sell Sprint And Buy Softbank [View article]
    Well, if S was $5 pre deal, and you get 55% of your shares taken out at 7.30, then you end up w/ 45% of your shares at 5, and 55% gone at 7.30 - or a wtd price of 6.27. Thats up 9%. If deal falls apart, then it goes back to 5. that is down 13%. So, basically risk reward is ok, but not that great. Not to mention the dilution from SB's investment will mean lower EPS in the future, or less total upside. You make a good point about another potential buyer but VZ and T have shown little interest in S for basically ever, and T Mobiles buy of PCS takes them out too.
    Oct 17, 2012. 12:09 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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