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Thomas Pan

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  • Seven Reasons We Will See a Repeat of the 2008 Crash [View article]
    Before big crash, big boys need to push up the market to dump their shares. It is not a surprise to see a big up day after 2 Hindenburg Omens. Still, future is unknown. It is prudent to have stop orders set up properly.

    On the other hand, Dow, with 30 stocks, is the easiest to manipulate, leading the rally now. Be careful!
    Aug 17 02:15 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • S&P 500 Intraday Since April Peak: Downtrend Broken [View article]
    This is still normal after the death kiss between 50 dma and 200 dma. M&M fool people in before the real tanking happens. It is better to say full cash and watch the direction of the markets.
    Jul 28 04:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Could Push the Markets Higher? [View article]
    The next couple of days are important. If quarter end window dressing is not strong enough to break through 50 day moving average, the markets might set up for a big tank as 50 day moving average will downward-cross 200 day moving average in the first half of the next month. At that time, the right shoulder will be round enough for all the three indices.
    Jun 29 03:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • VIX in a Healthy Pullback [View article]
    I dumped my VXX positions last Friday before VIX dropped below 30. I guess that most likely, you will get whipsawed.
    Jun 15 05:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • TRIN Index Shows Extreme Selling [View article]
    A nice follow-up of this blog post: www.tradersnarrative.c...)
    Jun 12 04:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How the Eurozone Could Survive [View article]
    How could E.U. do quantitative easing when Germany starts to have failed bond auctions? Even U.S. cannot survive further down the road.
    Jun 10 03:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Should We Buy the Dips? [View article]
    John, it would be true that markets would go down when everyone is bearish IF there was lack of government intervention. Let's see what would happen this time.
    Jun 10 03:25 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • TRIN Index Shows Extreme Selling [View article]
    In the past 20 years, there have been twice when $TRIN stood above 2.5. The previous one was the harbinger of the Great Recession. This one will be the second wave of the Great Recession. It simply means that this solvency crisis is not done yet.

    Extreme oversold signals are pre-cursors of major stock bear runs. They CANNOT be treated as buying points under normal market conditions.
    Jun 10 02:42 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Backward and Forward Look at Markets [View article]
    Oversold signals work for the most of the times under "normal" market conditions. They are actually harbingers of major bear markets, historically. This correction started as a "normal" recovery correction, which is supposed to be deeper than normal corrections. We don't know what kind of monsters it could evolve to, eventually. There have been couple of bearish surprises already, starting from the flash crash in May 6th. Hedging to the downside is important to mitigate potential risks as major indices stay below 200 day moving average and Dow stays below 10,000.
    Jun 8 01:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bullish Signs on the Dow [View article]
    @Jeff The analysis is not right as for the past 12 days, markets have been swinging up and down. The positive divergence of RSI doesn't exist. Check out this piece of analysis:
    Jun 7 10:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • S&P 500 Price vs. Breadth [View article]
    It is interesting to watch. The index led the ad line for the past 2-month rally from Feb. 8th. If we were expecting a bull run from now, we should've expected a bear run since Feb. 8th. Of course, it didn't happen. It doesn't seem to be a valid indicator at this time frame. Last weekend's Barron's has revealed that the put/call ratio of S&P 100 has dropped to the level signaling a further bear run while CBOE put/call ratio is trending bearish at around 60:100, where 30:100 is asking for a bear run for sure. CBOE put/call ratio caught the current correction at the right moment.
    Jun 7 10:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Another Growth Scare Passes [View article]
    The first treasury chart is not that persuasive as the drops in late 2009 were much milder. Why not show us the chart back to 2008 era so that we can see the real low.
    Jun 4 03:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The End of Cheap Chinese Labor? [View article]
    U.S. labor cost is about 10X of that of China. Even a 100% increase doesn't really matter that much. Note that the assembly cost is less than $12 in Foxconn, compared to >$500 for an iPad. It doesn't really affects the bottom line that much as of now. As the trend continues, China will have troubles. Then, the planned rail road project will keep the labor cost down for an extended period.
    Jun 2 10:00 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Six Reasons Why the Market Correction Is Not Over Yet [View article]
    We could easily identify which currencies are from Greece:
    Unlike euro coins, euro notes do not have a national side indicating which country issued them (which is not necessarily where they were printed). This information is instead encoded within the first character of each note's serial number.

    I don't know the inter-bank part.
    Jun 2 09:58 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Six Reasons Why the Market Correction Is Not Over Yet [View article]
    The rally out of March low is too quick, full of complacent. Thus, a big correction is necessary, if not second dip as debt hasn't fully restructured. Downward momentum is accumulating.
    Jun 1 12:07 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment