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Thomas Renna

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  • Titan Machinery's Inventory Reduction Guidance Will Lower Future Sales Significantly [View article]
    $10m impairment charge and the significant increase in interest expense.

    The impairments are all based on future cash flow projections. Goodwill, long lived assets, etc must be judged carrying value versus future cash flow. They profess great prospects but the impairment charges speak otherwise.

    The variable interest rate is going to crush them if rates rise. They are already struggling mightily with covering this.
    Apr 16 09:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Titan Machinery Is A Perfect Short [View article]
    you're probably correct,

    I just thought they would be more careful with cash, considering cash position is getting so low.
    Balance sheet shows "cash position" fell from $124 million FY2013 to $74 million.

    Apr 14 11:41 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Titan Machinery Is A Perfect Short [View article]
    I noticed in Friday's 10K (note 12) the company added 11 additional buildings (net) that they leased in FY 2014 vs. FY 2013.
    In FY 2013 they spent $17.3 million leasing 132 buildings and in FY 2014 they spent $21.6 million leasing 148 buildings.

    $4.3 million in additional expenses.

    Also noticed in Note 3 of the 10K they increased their Inventory for "parts and attachments" from $103 million in FY 2013 to $126 million in FY 2014.

    Investing an additional $23 million in parts and attachments over a year is a 25% increase.

    Nearly $27 million in expenses over 12 months just on these 2 line items appears to be rich.
    Apr 14 08:49 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Titan Machinery Is A Perfect Short [View article]
    interesting. Can you share some of your due diligence on that? thanks

    I just posted a couple notes this morning on my blog regarding Titan's guidance history.

    http://bit.ly/1hpppx0
    Apr 11 08:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Titan Machinery Is A Perfect Short [View article]
    good trade, u look pretty smart on a day with a sea of red
    Apr 10 04:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Titan Machinery Is A Perfect Short [View article]
    true. the short squeeze is way strong man. waiting for 10K to be released. Curious to see what the analysts from the CC have to say. I thought them missing on Q4 top line guiding down on revenue for 2015 would send stock lower. I'm still bearish on the name , don't think its a growth story anymore, but the short squeeze is having their way thus far today,
    Apr 10 01:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Titan Machinery Is A Perfect Short [View article]
    NBC Montana was tipped off Wednesday afternoon that Titan Machinery would be closing its doors

    http://bit.ly/R5d9rD
    Apr 10 06:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Probability Of 2014 Bankruptcy For Titan Increases After It Files Quarterly Report [View instapost]
    A Review of SEC Division of Corporate Finance Division's Comments regarding Titan Machinery over the past year. This Thursday's 10-K will be first audit with new Auditor Deloitte & Touche LLP

    http://bit.ly/1mUIUAF
    Apr 7 05:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Titan Machinery Is A Perfect Short [View article]
    agreed. Appears to be no independent oversight to hold the family accountable.

    It will be interesting to see if the new auditor allows the company to recognize revenue in Fiscal 2014 in this same manner as Fiscal 2013:
    (from Fiscal 2013 10K):
    " However, in certain circumstances, and upon the customer's written request, equipment revenue is recognized before delivery occurs"
    Apr 3 03:35 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Titan Machinery Is A Perfect Short [View article]
    This is no joking matter, be careful on long side. Here's a warning from last April when shares were in $30 neighborhood.

    http://bit.ly/15Mr0rE

    This is beyond a macro-view (Agriculture/Construct... its not simply about the space (sector) , you need to analyze management too.

    Note that the Management that put this company in the mess is still there.
    Apr 2 10:05 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • H-P to make 3D printer announcement in June, promises breakthroughs [View news story]
    Note in 2010 the cost of the OEM agreement between SSYS and HP.

    During the third quarter of 2012, HP exercised it's SSYS warrant for 500,000 shares through a “cashless exercise” in accordance with the terms of the warrant and was issued 360,115 shares of Stratasys, Inc. common stock.

    "On July 31, 2012, Stratasys entered into an agreement with Hewlett-Packard Company, or HP, to terminate the Master Original Equipment Manufacturer Agreement, or the OEM Agreement, between the two companies effective December 31, 2012. Under the terms of the OEM Agreement, signed in January 2010, Stratasys has developed and manufactured for HP an exclusive line of 3D printers based on Stratasys' patented Fused Deposition Modeling (FDM®) technology. Later that year, HP began a phased rollout of the 3D printers, which are now being sold exclusively by HP in eight European countries. Stratasys terminated the OEM Agreement because Stratasys no longer believed that it could achieve the financial benefits originally anticipated by entering into the OEM Agreement. The termination agreement also provides for continuity of consumables and service for end user customers that have purchased systems sold by HP under the OEM Agreement. Additional information with respect to the termination of the OEM Agreement is set forth in Stratasys' current report on Form 8-K filed with the SEC on August 1, 2012."
    above quote from SEC filing
    Mar 20 04:41 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What Do I Do With My Stocks If The Market Crashes? Part 1 [View article]
    great charts
    Mar 20 04:33 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • TheStreet.com Still Looks Undervalued, But Is It Time To Sell? [View article]
    I agree that Kass is a draw for RMP. Herb Greenberg who recently returned to TST is also a big draw.

    SeekingAlpha has a handful of contributors (authors) who are worth reading, but the majority of SA articles are worthless. SA contributors can't come close to TST contributors in terms of meaningful perspectives and actionable ideas.
    Feb 9 01:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • J. C. Penney: Free Cash Flow And Liquidity Scenarios For 2014 [View article]
    TTM ending Q3 (Nov, 2,2011) : $977 million
    TTM ending Q3 (Oct. 2012) : $298 million (-69% decline)
    TTM ending Q3 (Nov, 2,2013) : Negative $1.5 billion ($1.8 bil decline)

    the pattern says this business is doomed.
    Jan 17 01:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • J. C. Penney: Free Cash Flow And Liquidity Scenarios For 2014 [View article]
    Operating Cash Flow for Trailing Twelve Months ending November 2,2013:

    NEGATIVE ($1.5 Billion)

    that is the result of a bad business model, simple and easy.
    Jan 17 12:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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