Stratasys Impresses But Revenue Growth Needs Improvement [View article]
quality of those earnings are poor. Selling Product on credit without any cash flow coming in is not a healthy business model.
Warren Buffet says:
Common yardsticks such as dividend yield, the ratio of price to earnings or to book value, and even growth rates have nothing to do with valuation except to the extent they provide clues to the amount and timing of cash flows into and from the business. Indeed, growth can destroy value if it requires cash inputs in the early years of a project or enterprise that exceed the discounted value of the cash that those assets will generate in later years. Market commentators and investment managers who glibly refer to growth and value styles as contrasting approaches to investment are displaying their ignorance, not their sophistication. Growth is simply a component--usually a plus, sometimes a minus-- in the value equation."
Stratasys Impresses But Revenue Growth Needs Improvement [View article]
April 2012 : 21 million shares outstanding at $35 a share.Market cap was $775 million March 23,2013 38.5 million shares outstanding at $72 a share. Market cap was $2.7 billion Today 41.1 million shares outstanding @ $84 a share. market cap is $3.4 billion Company will add 4 million shares outstanding on January 1st 2014 for authorized issuance of stock to management bringing total to 45.1 million shares.
Carrying $822 million of GOODWILL is another great line item. and the HALF BILLION DOLLAR increase in INTANGIBLE assets
Stratasys Impresses But Revenue Growth Needs Improvement [View article]
On April 13, 2012, the day prior to announcing the merger, shares of SSYS were under $35.00, with 21 million shares outstanding (for a $735 million market capitalization.)
So this is more than a stock going from $35 to $82 per share, this is about a company market capitalization going from $735 million to $3.2 billion in 1 year…when all they did was merge with another company to have the combined entity report $1.4 million Operating cash flow for 2012!
Stratasys Impresses But Revenue Growth Needs Improvement [View article]
Operational Cash Flow for the 1st Quarter 2013 stayed negative for the third consecutive quarter. Q1 2012 + $6,878,000 Q1 2013 negative $12,252,000 (-278%)
60 minute conference call and no mention of operating cash flow , free cash flow. no mention by management and not one of these Analyst asked about the cash flow statement.
its now 11:15 an still no disclosure by company regarding cash flow.
From 2011 to 2012 , operating cash flow declined from $22 million to $1.4 million (94% decline year over year)
added 3 million additional shares outstanding since March 23rd SEC disclosure. will add 4 million more sahres on jan 1,2014.
market cap is up $775 million since March 23rd SEC disclosure. Mkt Cap up $2.4 billion to $3.4 billion in 12months
Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News [View article]
interest rates on the debt is significantly less than pre-crisis levels. interest expense in turn is less. better leverage since cost of borrow is reduced.
growth rate looks outstanding, but a closer examination shows that the growth through the acquisition of OBJET cost $1 billion.
Stratasys (Piper) valued SSYS at $1.2 billion on December 3,2012 and valued Objet at $1 billion.
So here we are 6 months later and the market cap is at $3.4 billion. A premium is already baked into the stock at these levels. (also note, OBJET shareholders will now be allowed to trade their shares)
Another interesting note on Monday's Release will be the statement of cash flow. Your morningstar link shows the Price to cash flow multiple at nearly a 2000 TIMES Multiple. I'm not sure if there's been a company at such a high price to operational cash flow level since maybe ETOYS or NBCI back in the day.
SSYS operational cash flow from 2011 to 2012 declined from $22 million to $1.4 million. (93% decline).
The company has been around 18 years and has really own grown through acquisitions.
An obvious skeptic here. I was a bull from $26 in 2011 but the earning's quality of SSYS has declined steadily since Q3 2012.
3D Systems: How Will The Stock Offering Impact Shareholders? [View article]
thanks for sharing breakdown (research). If the SP mid 400 corrects lower, it should create a drop in DDD stock , allowing for a better entry.
If I apply your math to Stratasys, SSYS would be worth $30 per share. SSYS generated $1.49 million in operational cash flow as a combined entity in 2012. Stock is trading at 2300 times Operational Cash Flow and trades over 230 times Earnings per share.
When Piper valued the SSYS/Objet merger in December (55%/45%) the two companies were valued at $1.2 billion + $1. billion= $2.2 billion merger. Market Cap is currently $3.4 billion. Objet shareholders lock up is now over and I would think they will take a page out of DDD's play book and want to sell some stock and raise some monies too. SSYS is the most overpriced stock in market in my book. (next to titan machinery TITN).
How Should An Investor Approach Caterpillar? [View article]
good points. TITN is more dependent on CNH.
CNH outlook for 2013: Agricultural equipment unit volume is expected to be flat to down 5% Construction equipment unit volume is expected to be down 5 to 10%
CNH is important according to TITN SEC disclosure: from 10K: "We (TITN) own and operate a network of full service agricultural and construction equipment stores in the United States and Europe. Based upon information provided to us by CNH Global N.V. or its U.S. subsidiary CNH America, LLC, collectively referred to in this Form 10-K as CNH, we are the largest retail dealer of Case IH Agriculture equipment in the world, the largest retail dealer of Case Construction equipment in North America"
I did some digging on TITN and found some very questionable deals going on between tops execs and outside entities they own.
3D Printing - Opening Pandora's Box [View article]
ObJet shareholdrs own 45% shares outstanding. LockUp ends soon. (today is 6 months since deal closed). time to register shares for trading. Shares will hit market, Cost to borrow to will decline, Short Interest % will fall. These shares hitting market will get in way of a short squeeze.
twhite, its a bad thing for this company because they paid nearly $23 million in INTEREST EXPENSE for the year 10K 2013. (that's over $1 a share in servicing debt.) they only paid interest on the indenture for quarters 2,3, & 4, because they borrowed the money approx. april 30th at end of Q1 2013.
vs. FY2012 they spent less than $10 million in interest expense. that's over 125%increase.
the quarter that ended yesterday Q1 2014 , will have higher interest expense than Q1 2013 because the interest expense on the indenture will show up and last yr Q1 this expense wasn't there. Let's say interest expense for Q1 2014 is the same as Q4 2013, that will be nearly $8million (conservatively). that will be almost a $0.40 cent share hit against EPS.
Q1 2013 interest expense was $3.6 million (about $0.17 a share hit on EPS)
This company is a classic roll up model of weak companies, all looking for an exit strategy. Roll ups are okay if there is an economy of scale (critical mass). But this company increases their Selling & General Administrative Expenses at the almost the same proportion that they increase sales. SGA increased to $247 million for the year FY2013 up from $194 million in FY2012. that's a 27% increase. Sales increased over the same period only 32%. (a mere 5 % higher).
Investing In An Undervalued Titan [View article]
I don't think I am way off base Alan. Appreciation for TOM who?
Stratasys Impresses But Revenue Growth Needs Improvement [View article]
Warren Buffet says:
Common yardsticks such as dividend yield, the ratio of price to earnings or to book value, and even growth rates have nothing to do with valuation except to the extent they provide clues to the amount and timing of cash flows into and from the business. Indeed, growth can destroy value if it requires cash inputs in the early years of a project or enterprise that exceed the discounted value of the cash that those assets will generate in later years.
Market commentators and investment managers who glibly refer to growth and value styles as contrasting approaches to investment are displaying their ignorance, not their sophistication. Growth is simply a component--usually a plus, sometimes a minus-- in the value equation."
in SSYS case, its a MINUS
Small-Cap 8x8 Paced For Further Growth [View article]
$22 million improvement, 245% increase
FY2013 $0.42 operational cash flow per share vs. $0.12 FY2012
Stratasys Impresses But Revenue Growth Needs Improvement [View article]
March 23,2013 38.5 million shares outstanding at $72 a share. Market cap was $2.7 billion
Today 41.1 million shares outstanding @ $84 a share. market cap is $3.4 billion
Company will add 4 million shares outstanding on January 1st 2014 for authorized issuance of stock to management bringing total to 45.1 million shares.
Carrying $822 million of GOODWILL is another great line item. and the HALF BILLION DOLLAR increase in INTANGIBLE assets
Stratasys Impresses But Revenue Growth Needs Improvement [View article]
So this is more than a stock going from $35 to $82 per share, this is about a company market capitalization going from $735 million to $3.2 billion in 1 year…when all they did was merge with another company to have the combined entity report $1.4 million Operating cash flow for 2012!
Stratasys Impresses But Revenue Growth Needs Improvement [View article]
Q1 2012 + $6,878,000
Q1 2013 negative $12,252,000 (-278%)
Q4 2011 +$9,551,000
Q4 2012 negative $815,000 (-109%)
Q3 2011 +$5,935,000
Q3 2012 negative $9,629,000 (-262%)
Trailing Twelve months ending March 31,2012 :
+ $25,782,000
Trailing Twelve months ending March 31,2013
negative $17,637,000 (-168%)
Stratasys' CEO Discusses Q1 2013 Results - Earnings Call Transcript [View article]
its now 11:15 an still no disclosure by company regarding cash flow.
From 2011 to 2012 , operating cash flow declined from $22 million to $1.4 million (94% decline year over year)
added 3 million additional shares outstanding since March 23rd SEC disclosure. will add 4 million more sahres on jan 1,2014.
market cap is up $775 million since March 23rd SEC disclosure. Mkt Cap up $2.4 billion to $3.4 billion in 12months
Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News [View article]
interest expense in turn is less.
better leverage since cost of borrow is reduced.
3-D Printing Stratasys' Q1 Earnings Preview [View article]
Stratasys (Piper) valued SSYS at $1.2 billion on December 3,2012 and valued Objet at $1 billion.
So here we are 6 months later and the market cap is at $3.4 billion.
A premium is already baked into the stock at these levels.
(also note, OBJET shareholders will now be allowed to trade their shares)
Another interesting note on Monday's Release will be the statement of cash flow. Your morningstar link shows the Price to cash flow multiple at nearly a 2000 TIMES Multiple.
I'm not sure if there's been a company at such a high price to operational cash flow level since maybe ETOYS or NBCI back in the day.
SSYS operational cash flow from 2011 to 2012 declined from $22 million to $1.4 million. (93% decline).
The company has been around 18 years and has really own grown through acquisitions.
An obvious skeptic here. I was a bull from $26 in 2011 but the earning's quality of SSYS has declined steadily since Q3 2012.
here is some other notes I have dug up:
http://bit.ly/12hc2pv
3D Systems: How Will The Stock Offering Impact Shareholders? [View article]
3D Systems: How Will The Stock Offering Impact Shareholders? [View article]
If the SP mid 400 corrects lower, it should create a drop in DDD stock , allowing for a better entry.
If I apply your math to Stratasys, SSYS would be worth $30 per share.
SSYS generated $1.49 million in operational cash flow as a combined entity in 2012. Stock is trading at 2300 times Operational Cash Flow and trades over 230 times Earnings per share.
When Piper valued the SSYS/Objet merger in December (55%/45%) the two companies were valued at $1.2 billion + $1. billion= $2.2 billion merger.
Market Cap is currently $3.4 billion.
Objet shareholders lock up is now over and I would think they will take a page out of DDD's play book and want to sell some stock and raise some monies too.
SSYS is the most overpriced stock in market in my book. (next to titan machinery TITN).
How Should An Investor Approach Caterpillar? [View article]
CNH outlook for 2013:
Agricultural equipment unit volume is expected to be flat to down 5%
Construction equipment unit volume is expected to be down 5 to 10%
CNH is important according to TITN SEC disclosure:
from 10K:
"We (TITN) own and operate a network of full service agricultural and construction equipment stores in the United States and Europe. Based upon information provided to us by CNH Global N.V. or its U.S. subsidiary CNH America, LLC, collectively referred to in this Form 10-K as CNH, we are the largest retail dealer of Case IH Agriculture equipment in the world, the largest retail dealer of Case Construction equipment in North America"
I did some digging on TITN and found some very questionable deals going on between tops execs and outside entities they own.
http://bit.ly/15Mr0rE
3D Printing - Opening Pandora's Box [View article]
LockUp ends soon. (today is 6 months since deal closed). time to register shares for trading.
Shares will hit market, Cost to borrow to will decline, Short Interest % will fall.
These shares hitting market will get in way of a short squeeze.
3D Printing - Opening Pandora's Box [View article]
Stock trades at 2300 TIMES OPERational cash Flow.
this is most over priced stock in the market.
the product may be fine, but it ain't worth this valuation.
it's like buying NetFlix for $1000 a share
Investing In An Undervalued Titan [View article]
they only paid interest on the indenture for quarters 2,3, & 4, because they borrowed the money approx. april 30th at end of Q1 2013.
vs. FY2012 they spent less than $10 million in interest expense. that's over 125%increase.
the quarter that ended yesterday Q1 2014 , will have higher interest expense than Q1 2013 because the interest expense on the indenture will show up and last yr Q1 this expense wasn't there.
Let's say interest expense for Q1 2014 is the same as Q4 2013, that will be nearly $8million (conservatively). that will be almost a $0.40 cent share hit against EPS.
Q1 2013 interest expense was $3.6 million (about $0.17 a share hit on EPS)
This company is a classic roll up model of weak companies, all looking for an exit strategy. Roll ups are okay if there is an economy of scale (critical mass). But this company increases their Selling & General Administrative Expenses at the almost the same proportion that they increase sales.
SGA increased to $247 million for the year FY2013 up from $194 million in FY2012. that's a 27% increase.
Sales increased over the same period only 32%. (a mere 5 % higher).
this business model is doomed.