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Thomas Renna

 
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  • Price Is What You Pay, Value Is What You Get (Warren Buffett) [View article]
    gotcha. i was posting because i thought it was insightful to hear his perspective on value in relation to growth, not to agree or disagree with you, simply to share another view.
    Sep 13, 2013. 12:22 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Price Is What You Pay, Value Is What You Get (Warren Buffett) [View article]
    **Warren Buffett, Chairman of Berkshire Hathaway:2000 Annual Report: http://bit.ly/162bySV

    "Common yardsticks such as dividend yield, the ratio of price to earnings or to book value, and even growth rates have nothing to do with valuation except to the extent they provide clues to the amount and timing of cash flows into and from the business. Indeed, growth can destroy value if it requires cash inputs in the early years of a project or enterprise that exceed the discounted value of the cash that those assets will generate in later years.
    Market commentators and investment managers who glibly refer to "growth" and "value" styles as contrasting approaches to investment are displaying their ignorance, not their sophistication. Growth is simply a component--usually a plus, sometimes a minus-- in the value equation."

    http://bit.ly/162bzGC
    Sep 13, 2013. 09:25 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dow Jones Index Needs A Shuffle To Take Average To 20,000 [View article]
    My crystal ball worked , almost...lol

    9am This morning:
    BREAKING: Goldman, Nike, And Visa To Join The Dow — Alcoa, HP, and BofA Are Out
    Joe Weisenthal

    Read more: http://read.bi/15gzJBt
    Sep 10, 2013. 09:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Titan Machinery - Is This Roll-Up Rolling Over? [View article]
    i made an error in above comment.
    EPS for 1st 6 months FY2014 was $0.16 (a 73% decline from Fy2013 1st 6 months of $0.60

    i ended up putting all my 10Q notes in a post

    http://bit.ly/1dYg6nf
    Sep 6, 2013. 06:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Titan Machinery - Is This Roll-Up Rolling Over? [View article]
    Thanks Stephen.
    PhilCA , you're spot on too.

    I would guess some of these analyst will have to bring their price targets lower with the new guidance. Hopefully sooner than later.

    Some notes from today’s 10-Q which was filed this afternoon. I always wondered how analyst can sit on those conference calls without 10Q. ;)

    If interest rates go up 1% point over next 12-mo period it would decrease pre-tax earnings + CF approx $4.9 mil

    OPERATING EXPENSES Q2 $70 million up from $54 mil in year ago comp Q2 .
    24% increase

    Long-term debt, less current maturities $82.6 million ...up from Q1 $58 million.....Total long-term liabilities increased $23million from Q1

    Q2 operational. Cash flow NEGATIVE $42million.

    Accounts Payable up $6mil from Q1 to $39 million. (that sure helped net income, cash flow and cash position (cough cough) lol

    Floor Plan Debt up $79million from Q1 to $851 million

    Plus they added 136,000 more shares outstanding from Q1 to Q2 (although they didn't use the new number of S/O to calculate EPS for quarter.)

    Then the obvious of lowering guidance from $1.70-$2.00 down to $1.2-$1.50

    And let’s not forget EPS falling for 6 months from $0.60 to a mere $0.18 for 6mos this year. (did I mention their accounts payable were $39 million (almost $2.00 a share)

    Meanwhile stock traded like they Beat by a quarter and guided up LOL

    That’s the crazy world of Wall St.

    Tommy
    Sep 5, 2013. 08:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Titan Machinery - Is This Roll-Up Rolling Over? [View article]
    I'm skeptical too on titn

    i'm still waiting for 10-Q to be disclosed

    i don't think that management is accountable to shareholders. i took some notes from 10K, u can find them here

    http://bit.ly/15Mr0rE
    Sep 5, 2013. 12:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dow Jones Index Needs A Shuffle To Take Average To 20,000 [View article]
    Agreed. The index design has holes as does my simple suggestions mentioned in the article. For one thing, subtracting AA, Cat and HPQ would distort the sector allocation and adding WFC would increase weight of financial sector.
    Its just tough to even come up with stocks that can even be considered "industrial".
    Sep 1, 2013. 01:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Love Fest And Victory Tour [View article]
    Caterpillar Doesn't Generate Enough Free Cash Flow To Cover Dividend. A look at the free cash flow for Caterpillar for the trailing twelve months ending March 31,2013:
    Dividend Paid ttm ending 3/31/2013: $1,329,000,000.00
    Free Cash Flow ttm end 3/31/2013: $1,171,000,000.00
    FCF only generated 88% of dividend.
    Trading 49 times free cash flow is very rich.

    http://bit.ly/1dL4VJb
    Jul 20, 2013. 12:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will 3-D Printing Stock Stratasys Head To The Stratosphere Or Head South? [View article]
    i figured as much. it would have been too complicated to make that chart and try to intentionally leave off the Q1 lol

    at least you're aware of it now.

    Our biggest difference is that you say:
    "No single metric is more meaningful in the valuation of a company than revenue and earnings growth."

    I say Operational cash flow is the most meaningful metric.

    that's what makes a market
    Jun 10, 2013. 08:28 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Will 3-D Printing Stock Stratasys Head To The Stratosphere Or Head South? [View article]
    here's a breakdown of operational cash flow

    http://bit.ly/11Dm2Kj
    Jun 10, 2013. 05:48 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Will 3-D Printing Stock Stratasys Head To The Stratosphere Or Head South? [View article]
    You're correct Gary, for the annual operational cash flow for last year.
    The trailing twelve months number is negative. In your chart you say trailing twelve months. but your graph shows FY2012. which is not the trailing twelve months. TTM would be period ending March 31,2013.
    If your chart showed the TTM, then it would be negative.

    You don't say "PE", but you say "potential future organic growth", which is attributable to PE multiple. You share the EPS number (est) , guidance and mention "growth rate". EPS and PE go hand in hand. With more shares, the EPS will decrease.
    i'll stand corrected you did not say PE.

    you are probably correct for Q1 institutional holdings for period ending March 31,2013. April and May has changed. I am referring to the more current positions. (which would be a little more helpful in the big picture.).

    You did a fine job on the article supporting the Stratosphere direction (upside), i just thought the heading south (risk) side was a little thin.

    Stock had a great day today. I will look at SSYS when Q2 numbers get reported at end of July.
    Jun 10, 2013. 05:42 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Will 3-D Printing Stock Stratasys Head To The Stratosphere Or Head South? [View article]
    i don't care either way on this ticker at the current stock price, but this article had plenty of errors (or omitted facts).
    readers should know the errors.

    I don't have that much time right this minute to go over all of them, but here are a couple:

    you say SSYS has positive operational cash flow.
    That is Outright False.
    3 consecutive quarters of negative operational cash flow. i can share those real numbers maybe later.

    Also the shares outstanding number you use is close, but when you are measuring future EPS and PE multiples, readers need to be aware of the 4 million shares outstanding that have been authorized to be added on January 1,2014:
    (Bringing total to 42.5 million shares outstanding.

    Upon the adoption of an amendment to the 2012 Plan at our extraordinary general meeting of shareholders in February 2013, the reserved pool under the plan consisted of 4,000,000 shares, which will be automatically increased annually on January 1 (beginning on January 1, 2014)

    Also Fidelity has reduced their position by 29% recently and now only hold 5.05% of shares outstanding.
    you can find that in the recent SEC filings as well.

    Q1 had an additional $300,000 tax credit,
    (you do note though that company has benefited from a lower tax year over year)

    I have to go now, maybe i'll spell out more errors later if i have time.
    peace
    Jun 10, 2013. 03:16 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Objet Founders Sue Stratasys Directors For Commercial Misconduct [View article]
    this isn't "NEW". this was disclosed in the SEC filings by the company 3 months ago.

    its a lawsuit, big deal. there are lawsuits everywhere everyday. big deal. why did these people wait till March 2013 to sue?

    Seeking alpha shouldn't allow anonymous authors from anonymous research firms to publish this crap.
    Jun 5, 2013. 09:49 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stratasys: Heavy Sales Pressure Expected Due To End Of Lockup Period [View article]
    I'm not a big fan of responding to Anonymous Written Articles by Anonymous Research Firms but I am not so clear why you make certain claims.

    If Dave Reis or the insiders wanted to sell shares, they could have done a Cash deal (or partial cash deal last year when the two companies merged).
    SO to say they NEVER could get liquid is a little bit of a stretch.imo

    I don't understand why you "estimate that many of these shareholders will take opportunity of their ability to sell shares immediately"

    If these shareholders wanted liquidity I'm not sure they would have invested in a private company like Objet in the first place.
    If they wanted liquid investments they could have invested in any publically traded stock in the market over the years.
    Jun 3, 2013. 04:04 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Stratasys: Heavy Sales Pressure Expected Due To End Of Lockup Period [View article]
    Mostly Everyone (brokers & institutions) in market is already aware of the lock up ending this week.
    This event may already be priced into stock and could be why stock isn't at $100 and is sitting here under $85.

    If these Objet shareholders have been holding the stock as long as you state in your article, I don't see why all of a sudden they would ALL NEED to exit so Quickly. especially if they believe in their product, which i think they do.

    IF this kind of volume is available for sale all at once , I would speculate that an Underwriter would just "place" the stock in an offering to institutions. (the same way DDD just did it for insider selling).

    The stock sells at a rich valuation based on fundamentals but that didn't stop NETFLIX from going from $50 to $200 recently.
    TSLA fundamentals aren't all that , and their shares have had a great run too.

    This lock up ending doesn't make a drop in price a LOCK on the downside.

    (I'm bearish on valuation), but there are plenty of bulls out there
    Jun 3, 2013. 09:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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