Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News [View article]
interest rates on the debt is significantly less than pre-crisis levels. interest expense in turn is less. better leverage since cost of borrow is reduced.
growth rate looks outstanding, but a closer examination shows that the growth through the acquisition of OBJET cost $1 billion.
Stratasys (Piper) valued SSYS at $1.2 billion on December 3,2012 and valued Objet at $1 billion.
So here we are 6 months later and the market cap is at $3.4 billion. A premium is already baked into the stock at these levels. (also note, OBJET shareholders will now be allowed to trade their shares)
Another interesting note on Monday's Release will be the statement of cash flow. Your morningstar link shows the Price to cash flow multiple at nearly a 2000 TIMES Multiple. I'm not sure if there's been a company at such a high price to operational cash flow level since maybe ETOYS or NBCI back in the day.
SSYS operational cash flow from 2011 to 2012 declined from $22 million to $1.4 million. (93% decline).
The company has been around 18 years and has really own grown through acquisitions.
An obvious skeptic here. I was a bull from $26 in 2011 but the earning's quality of SSYS has declined steadily since Q3 2012.
3D Systems Or Stratsys: Which Is The Best Bet For Now? [View article]
On another note:
Morningstar data regarding SSYS is using November data. The acquisition of Objet was completed the 1st week of December. Since the first week of December the new company Stratasys Limited has 41 million shares outstanding. Therefore the current market capitalization is $3.4 billion.
I am not sure where the EPS estimates your received came from, but are those estimates based on 21 million shares or 41 million shares outstanding? I've been trying to find out.
I contacted the Wall Street Journal yesterday to get some clarity. The Journal responded by saying that the data won't be updated until the company reports their Year end numbers which are expected in February. Last night I listed to the Needham Conference call and SSYS announced that their year end numbers have been post poned from Feb to approx March 4,2013.
Until those figures are updated, the public only has the data available on ZACKS, Yahoo Finance, Bloomberg & Morningstar. The problem is each of those sites are using old data tht won't be updated till hopefully March.
This leaves many unanswered questions: What is EPS? ball park? What is PE multiple? ballpark?
To much uncertainty for speculate.
What I do know is that the two business valued themselves for the purpose of the merger at ($1 billion for Objet) & ($1.2 billion for SSYS) 45% & 55%
Why the shares are hanging around a $3.4 billion market cap 40 days later is questionable imho
This Cash Flow Machine Offers A Stable 8.6% Dividend Yield [View article]
FYI,
operational cash for the trailing twelve months ending 6/30/2012 vs. ttm 6/30/2011 down $196,160,000 (-11.8%)
operational cash flow for 6mos 2012 vs. 6mos 2011 down $107 million (-12.38%)
Annual operational cash flow per share has actually declined from 2009 to 2010 to 2011: 2009: $2.39 2010: $1.88 (-21.5%) 2011: $1.59 (-15.6% from 2010) (-34% from 2009)
all that matters is that the stock keeps going higher. Sales and earnings is the focus and as long as they're growing, the stock I guess will just continue to rip higher. There's like 17 Brokerages following it and I read that institutional ownership is about 87%. Just not sure why the numbers that you highlight are so confusing.
I wouldn't be a buyer here at $5.7 Billion mkt cap I personally don't understand how a business that generates $21 million in earnings on operational cash flow of Negative $26 million dollars for 6 months can trade at a $5.7 billion valuation.
Under Armour's EU Exposure Just Right [View article]
I didn't say I was bullish on Nike, I was just showing their OPS number as an FYI.
I am a long term investor, not a trader.
You're right the operational cash flow statistics disclosure is public information. When the numbers were filed on May 3rd, the stock sold off from above $99 to under $90. Why the stock has bounced up above $100 is anyone's guess, it's the market. (could be short covering, or the fact that index funds are going higher and UA is included withing those index funds, etc..)
Institutions and Brokerages had access to the full disclosure (poor operational cash flow statistics) of GMCR, FSLR, RIMM, NOK etc. also, look what happened to those positions. Sales and profits are important, but the Cash Flow Statement is equally, if not more important.
The leadership of this company has shown that there is reason to believe they can't solve a problem.
The company not solving problem: if you look at the last 3 annual reports (10Ks) Operational Cash Flow 2010: $119 million 2011: $50 million (-58%) 2012: $15 million (-70% vs.2011) (-87% vs.2010)
The problem has worsened. Companies with this DNA end up bankrupt or need to go out and raise monies in the capital markets (adding more shares or debt).
Not all young companies figure out how to solve their problem.
Z, I respect you for your conviction, but I suggest you be more open minded to the bear case.
When the quarterly financials ending June 30th are reported in July I will examine the numbers again and if the numbers improve and the stock is attractive, I could become bullish.
Food For Thought: SuperValu's High 7.6% Dividend Yield [View article]
I disagree. I don't find it "ridiculous" that stock is down more than 50%.
Annual Sales : 2010 $9.1 billion 2011 $8.4 billion (-8.12%) 2012 $8.0 billion (-4.65%) they've lost over $1 billion in annual revenue
Annual Operational Cash Flow (the real red flag) 2010 $1.4 billion 2011 $1.1 billion (-21%) 2012 $1.0 billion (-9.2%)
I would not trust the dividend at this level and unless they start to grow operational cash flow I don't see any reason to own these shares.
this post below appeared on my home page this morning
June 1,2012
SuperValu, Inc. (NYSE: http://bit.ly/KQx5pZ) traded at an all time (27 year low) yesterday before closing @ $4.52. Stockdiagnostics downgraded SVU @ $13.32 (dividend adjusted) on January 19,2010 after the company reported FY2010 3rd quarter financials for the period ending November 30,2009. Since the downgrade 30 months ago, shares have fallen 66%. click to SVU Stockdiagnostics OPS chart click to SVU GFNN news story
3D Systems: A Sobering Reality [View article]
Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News [View article]
interest expense in turn is less.
better leverage since cost of borrow is reduced.
3-D Printing Stratasys' Q1 Earnings Preview [View article]
Stratasys (Piper) valued SSYS at $1.2 billion on December 3,2012 and valued Objet at $1 billion.
So here we are 6 months later and the market cap is at $3.4 billion.
A premium is already baked into the stock at these levels.
(also note, OBJET shareholders will now be allowed to trade their shares)
Another interesting note on Monday's Release will be the statement of cash flow. Your morningstar link shows the Price to cash flow multiple at nearly a 2000 TIMES Multiple.
I'm not sure if there's been a company at such a high price to operational cash flow level since maybe ETOYS or NBCI back in the day.
SSYS operational cash flow from 2011 to 2012 declined from $22 million to $1.4 million. (93% decline).
The company has been around 18 years and has really own grown through acquisitions.
An obvious skeptic here. I was a bull from $26 in 2011 but the earning's quality of SSYS has declined steadily since Q3 2012.
here is some other notes I have dug up:
http://bit.ly/12hc2pv
3D Printing - Opening Pandora's Box [View article]
Stock trades at 2300 TIMES OPERational cash Flow.
this is most over priced stock in the market.
the product may be fine, but it ain't worth this valuation.
it's like buying NetFlix for $1000 a share
Stratasys: 3D Printing Growth Is Backed Up With Solid Numbers [View article]
Their guidance for 2013 according to release:
guidance 2013: GAAP earnings guidance of a ($0.41) to ($0.16) per share loss.
2013 effective tax rate is 15-20%.
Can you elaborate as to why this business deserves such a lofty PE multiple?
Stratasys' CEO Discusses Q4 2012 Results - Earnings Call Transcript [View article]
3D Systems: A Sobering Reality [View article]
http://bit.ly/140EywF
3D Systems Or Stratsys: Which Is The Best Bet For Now? [View article]
Morningstar data regarding SSYS is using November data.
The acquisition of Objet was completed the 1st week of December.
Since the first week of December the new company Stratasys Limited has 41 million shares outstanding.
Therefore the current market capitalization is $3.4 billion.
I am not sure where the EPS estimates your received came from, but are those estimates based on 21 million shares or 41 million shares outstanding? I've been trying to find out.
I contacted the Wall Street Journal yesterday to get some clarity.
The Journal responded by saying that the data won't be updated until the company reports their Year end numbers which are expected in February.
Last night I listed to the Needham Conference call and SSYS announced that their year end numbers have been post poned from Feb to approx March 4,2013.
Until those figures are updated, the public only has the data available on ZACKS, Yahoo Finance, Bloomberg & Morningstar.
The problem is each of those sites are using old data tht won't be updated till hopefully March.
This leaves many unanswered questions:
What is EPS? ball park?
What is PE multiple? ballpark?
To much uncertainty for speculate.
What I do know is that the two business valued themselves for the purpose of the merger at ($1 billion for Objet) & ($1.2 billion for SSYS)
45% & 55%
Why the shares are hanging around a $3.4 billion market cap 40 days later is questionable imho
Titan Machinery Shares Are On Sale After Earnings Beat [View article]
3Q operational cash cash flow NEGATIVE $79 million.
TITN generated NEGATIVE $449 million Operational Cash flow for trailing 16 quarters (4 years) ....EPS quality is poorest.
Equities Research rates TITN a Strong Sell.
Guess that's what makes a market
This Cash Flow Machine Offers A Stable 8.6% Dividend Yield [View article]
operational cash for the trailing twelve months
ending 6/30/2012 vs. ttm 6/30/2011
down $196,160,000 (-11.8%)
operational cash flow for 6mos 2012 vs. 6mos 2011
down $107 million (-12.38%)
Annual operational cash flow per share has actually declined
from 2009 to 2010 to 2011:
2009: $2.39
2010: $1.88 (-21.5%)
2011: $1.59 (-15.6% from 2010) (-34% from 2009)
http://bit.ly/OqPpWM
Under Armour: An Excellent Short Opportunity? [View article]
UA generated negative free cash flow for the trailing twelve months (ending June 30,2012) and trades at a $6billion market cap.
Under Armour's Special Effects [View article]
There's like 17 Brokerages following it and I read that institutional ownership is about 87%.
Just not sure why the numbers that you highlight are so confusing.
I wouldn't be a buyer here at $5.7 Billion mkt cap
I personally don't understand how a business that generates $21 million in earnings on operational cash flow of Negative $26 million dollars for 6 months can trade at a $5.7 billion valuation.
oh well,
Under Armour's EU Exposure Just Right [View article]
I am a long term investor, not a trader.
You're right the operational cash flow statistics disclosure is public information. When the numbers were filed on May 3rd, the stock sold off from above $99 to under $90.
Why the stock has bounced up above $100 is anyone's guess, it's the market. (could be short covering, or the fact that index funds are going higher and UA is included withing those index funds, etc..)
Institutions and Brokerages had access to the full disclosure (poor operational cash flow statistics) of GMCR, FSLR, RIMM, NOK etc. also, look what happened to those positions.
Sales and profits are important, but the Cash Flow Statement is equally, if not more important.
The leadership of this company has shown that there is reason to believe they can't solve a problem.
The company not solving problem:
if you look at the last 3 annual reports (10Ks)
Operational Cash Flow
2010: $119 million
2011: $50 million (-58%)
2012: $15 million (-70% vs.2011) (-87% vs.2010)
The problem has worsened. Companies with this DNA end up bankrupt or need to go out and raise monies in the capital markets (adding more shares or debt).
Not all young companies figure out how to solve their problem.
Z,
I respect you for your conviction, but I suggest you be more open minded to the bear case.
When the quarterly financials ending June 30th are reported in July I will examine the numbers again and if the numbers improve and the stock is attractive, I could become bullish.
Good luck to you,
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Food For Thought: SuperValu's High 7.6% Dividend Yield [View article]
Annual Sales :
2010 $9.1 billion
2011 $8.4 billion (-8.12%)
2012 $8.0 billion (-4.65%)
they've lost over $1 billion in annual revenue
Annual Operational Cash Flow (the real red flag)
2010 $1.4 billion
2011 $1.1 billion (-21%)
2012 $1.0 billion (-9.2%)
I would not trust the dividend at this level and unless they start to grow operational cash flow I don't see any reason to own these shares.
this post below appeared on my home page this morning
June 1,2012
SuperValu, Inc. (NYSE: http://bit.ly/KQx5pZ) traded at an all time (27 year low) yesterday before closing @ $4.52. Stockdiagnostics downgraded SVU @ $13.32 (dividend adjusted) on January 19,2010 after the company reported FY2010 3rd quarter financials for the period ending November 30,2009. Since the downgrade 30 months ago, shares have fallen 66%.
click to SVU Stockdiagnostics OPS chart
click to SVU GFNN news story