By Thomas E. Sobon

A stock's performance in the market is determined by the confluence of three factors: (1) the company's fundamental situation extant as determined by its business base and the merits (demerits?) of management's corporate development program, (2) the stock's technical status as indicated by its performance on the chart, and (3) the news flow as it relates to both the market in general and, more specifically, to the company. The recent news flow shows two developments that are worthy of note by investors interested in the RAIT Financial Trust (RAS): a larger than expected increase in the stock's dividend and a sharp increase in its trading volume.

What follows is a brief update of the two previous articles that I wrote on RAIT. The news flow is the wild card among the three items cited because its occurrence is the growing edge of the future and its

By Thomas E. Sobon

On November 21 I wrote an article entitled "Is Dell (DELL) a Buy Idea Whose Time Has Come." In it I concentrated on the transformational change taking place in the personal computer space and commented on historical examples of such change to provide perspective. The stock then was trading below 10 and, inasmuch as I rely on both fundamental and technical analysis, preferred to avoid the stock until there was some indication on the chart that its downtrend was coming to an end. Shortly thereafter, the news flow showed that a leveraged buyout was being planned and the stock broke to the upside and now trades at about 14.

I really don't have an opinion about the investment (speculative?) merits of the stock at this time except to say that there is substantial operational risk involved. So why, then, did I take time to write

In recent years Ben Bernanke and the Fed used monetary tools to address economic problems and it is arguable as to how successful their actions were and how enduring the benefits there from will be. History has lessons to teach for people who strive to understand the present and divine the future. A couple of lessons from the past can provide perspective as it relates to quantitative easing and the economic situation extant:

Back in the late 1950's the economy was mired in a recession, the stock market was in the doldrums, and William McChesney Martin was the Chairman of the Fed. The captains of industry and their counterparts on Wall Street clamored for the Fed to reduce interest rates in order to stimulate the economy. But Martin (a man of considerable intellect and courage who led the Fed for 19 years and served during the reign of five presidents)

What follows is a progress report on the RAIT Financial Trust (RAS). My original article was dated November 1, 2012 and the basics stated therein need not be repeated here. New readers may want to refer to it to gain perspective on the company's recovery since its crash during the real estate bust of 2007-2008 when no less than its survival was at stake. Having got a close-up look at what hell was all about, RAIT got religion (as any sensible sinner would do) and did what it had to do to resurrect itself by becoming a true believer in virtuous business practices. I wrote then that what the new management team was doing had virtue and the recovery from those difficult days was well underway as of Q3 2012. And, further progress would be dependent upon management's ability to execute on several new initiatives. In recent months the

What follows is a progress report on Intel (INTC). In my original article on Intel from Oct. 23, 2012, I wrote about the transformational changes taking place in the personal computer market and how they were affecting Intel and other participants in the PC industry. I concluded that of all the companies being adversely affected by the events taking place, Intel would fare best in the years ahead. It had already launched products directed at the tablet market and some of its plants were being retooled to produce new product lines. INTC has technology, facilities, and financial resources not available to many other participants in the PC space. In effect, I was "betting on new initiatives" by being bullish on the company at that time. Also, the stock's price action on the chart was bearish, so I choose to avoid the stock. The price of the stock was $21.25.

Dell (DELL) has been a victim of transformational changes taking place in the personal computer industry. The stock reacted accordingly and grossly underperformed the stock market for more than a year. Management has endeavored to minimize adverse effects of the competitive challenge and diversify the company's business base. Much has been done but much more is required.

Investors have to be concerned about a stock's potential as an investment. Their objective is (or should be) to buy low and sell high. I will render an opinion later in this article on DELL's current investment (speculative?) merit. There is risk involved in any equity position and it is up to the reader to discount my presentation to whatever extent he or she may choose. And it is up to them to make their own decisions about the stock's suitability according to their personal investment criteria.

It is the successful assumption of

When the stock market is going up investors want a stock that can produce capital gains. When the market is moving sideways, investors want high dividend income. And when it is going down, they want safety of principal. It is hard to find a stock that will perform well in up, down, and sideways markets. On a total return basis, the Lexington Corporate Properties Trust (LXP) is the kind of stock that can produce favorable results in the three market scenarios referred to above. The stock got its comeuppance during the financial turmoil culminating in the real estate bust several years ago. But so did a large number of other stocks in all sectors of the stock market. I will render an opinion on LXP later in this article. But first I want the reader to know why it is necessary for me to do the analysis the way that

By Thomas E. Sobon

An investor's realized return on his investment depends primarily on two things: the first is capital gain or loss and the second is cash dividends received. Any other consideration may be important and supportive but it is not relevant to the subject being discussed. A company's free cash flow is one thing and the way it is disbursed is another. The focus here is on the way a company's free cash flow is distributed to shareholders as cash dividends or through share buybacks.

The proverb "A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush" will be used freely to facilitate understanding. When a company distributes a cash dividend that is "the bird in the hand" reward that the investor earns from his investment. It is current the moment he receives it. It is his money. He earned it and he has discretion over its

When the stock market is going up investors want a stock that will produce capital gains. When the market is moving sideways, investors want high dividend income. And when it is going down, they want safety of principal. It is hard to find a stock that will perform well in up, down, and sideways markets. WABCO Holdings (WBC) is the kind of stock that can produce above average results during a bull market when the market is being fueled by cyclical and secular growth forces that are positive. However, it has nothing to offer the investor in the way of a cash dividend return because it there is no such dividend. In down markets the stock tends to underperform due, in part, to the no-dividend consideration. With these thoughts in mind I will render an opinion on WABCO later in this article. But first I want the reader to know

WHAT CAN GO RIGHT WITH THE RAIT FINANCIAL TRUST

By Thomas E. Sobon

A bond is a debt certificate and a stock is an equity certificate. Before an investor buys a bond at par he should ask "What can go wrong?" If everything goes right he will only get back an interest rate of return while holding the bond and his principal on the bond's maturity date. But if things go wrong he will be stuck with a loss; therefore he must avoid risk. With a stock it's different and when determining its suitability as an investment the investor should ask "What can go right?"

It is the successful assumption of risk that produces significant investment gains in the form of dividends and/or capital gains. (1) The dividends I receive as an investor are those declared by the company's management. Therefore, I need to know about the merits of the

What follows is a progress report on PetroLogistics (PDH). My original article was dated October 12, 2012 and the basics stated therein need not be repeated here. New readers may want to refer to it. This report is presented in two parts: the first deals with fundamental developments as stated in the just released operating results for Q3 and the second deals with technical developments concerning the stock's price action. Operating results in Q3 were not very good. The price action of the stock was favorable from October 12 until today (October 25) when it reacted to the earnings announcement. The price is now 12.95, down from yesterday's close of 13.55. So, what do I do now?

Fundamentally, what was the problem in Q3?

The bottom line for Q3 is that the distribution to shareholders will be 21 cents, down from the stub of 26 cents paid in Q2 and

A bond is a debt certificate and a stock is an equity certificate. Before an investor buys a bond at par he should ask "What can go wrong?" If everything goes right he will only get back an interest rate of return while holding the bond plus his principal on the bond's maturity date. But if things go wrong he will be stuck with a loss; therefore he must avoid risk. With a stock it's different and when determining its suitability as an investment the investor should ask "What can go right?"

It is the successful assumption of risk that produces significant investment gains in the form of dividends and/or capital gains. (1) The dividends I receive as an investor are those declared by the company's management. Therefore, I need to know about the merits of the corporate development program that make dividend payments possible; those merits also affect the

A bond is a debt instrument and a stock is an equity instrument. Before an investor buys a bond at par he should ask "What can go wrong?" If everything goes right he will only get back his principal on the bond's maturity date. But if things go wrong he will be stuck with a loss so he must avoid risk. With a stock it's different and when determining its suitability as an investment the investor should ask "What can go right?" It is the successful assumption of risk that produces significant investment gains. To improve my chances for success due diligence dictates that I rely on both fundamental and technical analysis; the former tells me what to buy and the later tells me when to buy or sell it. Neither discipline can provide all of the answers for picking winners in the stock market; but the two