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Thomas Sobon  

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  • Another Picture Worth 1000 Words [View article]

    If I recall correctly, Goldman bought that 20B at a deep discount and fought to be paid back by the feds at par. I think it was Geitner who caved. Goldman then explained their windfall by saying it made $100 million each day for a month at their trading desk
    Nov 27, 2015. 05:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil: The Wildfire Spreads [View article]
    Eric, good job. I knew things were bad in the oil industry, but I didn't know that they were that bad.
    Nov 27, 2015. 10:18 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fed Policy: Unsafe At Any Speed? [View article]

    An excellent article. BUT it should have been published in the NY Times and not here on SA.
    Nov 27, 2015. 09:53 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Another Picture Worth 1000 Words [View article]
    To get back to normal levels of interest rates, they would have to put Paul Volcker in charge of the Fed
    Nov 25, 2015. 02:13 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Another Picture Worth 1000 Words [View article]

    You wrote " because of my overwhelmingly bearish outlook on the S&P 500 (NYSEARCA:SPY), and as a consequence, the U.S. economy."

    I am bearish on the economy for other reasons, namely the Fed and the do-nothing Congress. But I am also bearish on the SPY. The QQQ recently made a new high. But not the SPY. It is currently running into stiff resistance on its price chart and it will take a lot of buying power to get through it. As for the economy, it is on the life support provided by the Fed so its foundation is already weak.
    Nov 25, 2015. 10:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bi-Weekly Economic Review [View article]

    Insanity has been defined as doing the same thing again and again while expecting a different result. QE1 may have bailed out the economy but it didn’t have positive effects on the multiplier or the accelerator and neither did any of the QEs that followed it. As a result there was no sustainable economic growth. And we aren’t likely to get such growth during nearby years.

    Bernanke gave QE respectability and it was adopted elsewhere in the world. We now have economies that are an international house of cards. The blind leading the blind.
    Nov 22, 2015. 10:54 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bi-Weekly Economic Review [View article]
    Joseph, could it be that if the Fed does raise the rate in December it will be because it corrupted the economy so much that it can't dare corrupt it any more? Its near zero rate policies created imbalances in many sectors of the economy.

    During 1961-69 we had one interest rate cut by the Fed and eight years of self-sustaining and robust economic growth. During 2007-15 we had QE1 by the Fed; and then came QE2, Operation Twist, and QE3; but, we got tepid and no self-sustainable economic growth.

    It is about time the Fed threw in its towel on QE. The only thing that can save the economy now is an infrastructure program but we are not likely to get that from the do-nothing Congress. So the Fed should lay it on the line and say what is really needed to stimulate the economy.
    Nov 22, 2015. 08:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Federal Sand Castle [View article]

    Brilliantly stated. The Fed is hell bent on convincing everybody that it knows what has to be done to get the economy on a self sustaining basis and it is doing such. But it hasn't been able to do that for seven years. They should make some allowance for the shortness of life and proclaim that the politicians have got to come up with a political solution because a monetary solution can't do it.

    "Farce" is a word you used and even that is an understatement.
    Nov 20, 2015. 09:28 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Absolutely No Chance Of December Rate Hike Now [View article]

    Such is part of propaganda they put out to convey the idea that the raise, if it happens, has been discounted by Mr. Market. With regard to Leisman, he is a patsy who always ask the softball question while being the first in the audience to ask a question during the conference call at the Fed meetings. Its all part of the dog and pony show, much like that done by the Fed governors with their "news" conferences. Dudley gives the impression that he is still working for Goldman Sach.
    Nov 18, 2015. 03:16 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Absolutely No Chance Of December Rate Hike Now [View article]

    Very well articulated.
    Nov 18, 2015. 12:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Absolutely No Chance Of December Rate Hike Now [View article]

    It looks like we are shopping the same side of the street. In a previous comment I told you that I was long the SRTY, which is the 3X inverse ETF for the Russell 2000. The IWM performed well with the SPY and the QQQ for several years prior to 18 months ago. Since then it lagged significantly and after the August waterfall drop it has been a weak performer. Good luck with your short.
    Nov 18, 2015. 10:59 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Absolutely No Chance Of December Rate Hike Now [View article]

    Very well said.
    Nov 18, 2015. 09:42 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Absolutely No Chance Of December Rate Hike Now [View article]

    Good article and you are probably right about the Fed not raising rates. You wrote:

    "Several Fed officials tested the financial market waters with hawkish rhetoric. Certainly, none were too pleased with the market's response. The Fed is desperate to normalize policy before the next economic downturn ensues so that it can claim victory on the monetary policy front."

    Obviously the regulator is being regulated by Wall Street. That is a sad state of affairs but that is how things happen when the establishment is in control. You are looking for a yearend rally with reckoning coming later. Would you be inclined to sell the rally?
    Nov 18, 2015. 09:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Bubble Right In Front Of Our Faces [View article]
    It could be that investors think that they are playing the market with monopoly money.

    It would be nice if we could borrow money from the Fed at zero interest on an unsecured basis, buy stocks, and let Yellen and the other Fed officials worry about getting paid back. That would be poetic justice.
    Nov 17, 2015. 12:20 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stock Market Warning: Credit Spreads Are Widening Again [View article]
    In many ways, fundamental analysis that is rational and certainly applicable to economic trends and reversals is of limited use these days. The zero interest rate policies of the #@%??# Fed negate much of otherwise sound analysis. Much of what is going on has been distorted from what would have been free-market trends. To make matters worse, on Wall Street now-a-days "bad news is good news" because that will deter the Fed from increasing rates. Bombings occur in Paris and the stock market goes up. EU countries announce that they are going to be running deficits because of the immigration situation and markets go up. China makes a meaningless cut in interest rates and the market says that is bullish. It's much like an Alice in Wonderland tale that is happening.

    Does anyone have an idea how much the Fed has distorted economic activity from what such would have been in a normal interest rate environment?
    Nov 17, 2015. 08:53 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment