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Thomas Sobon  

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  • This Is How A Bear Market Starts [View article]
    Eric, an excellent article complemented with sage perspective. Experience keeps an expensive school but fools will learn in no other.
    Dec 18, 2014. 08:39 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 8 Pieces Of Our Oil Price Predicament [View article]
    Excellent article
    Dec 8, 2014. 07:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2 Countries For Old Bulls [View article]
    Eric,

    Very nicely presented.
    Nov 13, 2014. 06:47 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Could The Bulls Run Into Year-End? [View article]
    Brett,

    You are correct. But, market timing is a dangerous game only if you don't understand its capabilities and limitations. Chris does understand such and he is nimble when he has to be.

    Emerson wrote in his brilliant essay called Self Reliance "live ever in a new day and speak your truth as you understand it. So what if your belief today is the opposite of what it was yesterday?" When conditions change you should change with them or perish.
    Oct 31, 2014. 10:25 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Could The Bulls Run Into Year-End? [View article]
    Chris,

    12 trading days ago it looked like the market momentum was clearly to the downside. The "Bullard bounce" reversed just about everything (except gold) to the upside and it now looks like the market is poised to go parabolic. On the day that the bottom occurred the volume of trading was double its 40 day average. During the last 5 days the volume was about 7% below that average. This is a technical bounce so enjoy it while it lasts.
    Oct 31, 2014. 03:41 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Market That Satisfies No One [View article]
    Cogently and brilliantly written.
    Oct 28, 2014. 09:32 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Stocks: Is It Time To Get Back In? [View article]
    Coldcall,

    At least you know that you are speculating on the basis of the bigger fool theory.
    Oct 22, 2014. 07:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stock Rally Faces Important Test [View article]
    Chris,

    The snake oil salesmen for the Fed continued to do their dog and pony act last week when it appeared that the market was in a correction mode. Bullard (it could have easily been Plosser, Dudley) made a statement that placated the Wall Street crowd and immediately buying support came in to boost stock prices. Usually, the Fed statements refer to its dual mandate for promoting employment. The recently released employment report was pretty good. Bullard’s statement was a stretch and he referred to the fact that the Fed was not meeting its inflation goal of 2% so interest rates should remain at current low levels. Two days later the President of the Boston Fed criticized Bullard and said, in effect, Fed officials should not be making statements to boost stock prices.

    If you have a bearish view on the market, you have got to be wary of what Fed officials say. Instead of using QE to boost asset prices, it should have just bought the SPY.
    Oct 21, 2014. 09:10 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Could The S&P 500 Fall To 1,625? [View article]
    Chris,

    Good job. As the saying goes, "If you divine the future study the past." Your 1625 is certainly plausible.
    Oct 16, 2014. 02:00 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Most Important Chart On Wall Street [View article]
    Chris,

    When I saw the way the market was closing on Tuesday, I bought a few more shares of SPXS to add to my position. It is now Wednesday morning and the futures are very weak. A bad day in the market today would make the charts without any hint of a bottom. And, that would likely lead to another bad day on Thursday.
    Oct 15, 2014. 08:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are We Witnessing The Setup To The Most Important Macro Trade Of 2014? [View article]
    Very well written
    Oct 14, 2014. 11:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Most Important Chart On Wall Street [View article]
    Chris,

    If the bulls are going to win here they will have to overcome odds that are stacked against them. As of now, 19% of the 380 stocks in my universe are in definable uptrends vis-à-vis their moving averages with 50% down and 31% not having a meaningful trend.

    75% just made 22 day lows and 54% made 88 day lows. 94% are below their 21 day averages, 87% below 87 day averages, and 79% below 131 day averages.

    To say that the market has "bad breadth" would be putting it mildly. Even if the market bounces up today, I would consider such to be a dead cat bounce until I see evidence of a follow through in subsequent days.

    The time intervals I referred to above may seem odd but they are only component parts of series that I use in my oscillator.
    Oct 14, 2014. 09:30 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stocks: The Most Important Week In 6 Years [View article]
    Eric,

    In recent years it was a good idea to buy the dips. In coming months, it is likely that sell the rally will be the key to success. There has been much technical damage done to stock prices in recent weeks and the momentum is clearly to the downside. Within the universe of 380 stocks that I follow (almost all are S&P items) 88% are currently below their 21 day averages with 77% below their 110 day averages. On Friday the percentage of stocks making 22 day and 88 day lows was a startling 70% and 49%, respectively.

    Structurally, only 22% of the 380 stocks were in definable uptrends vis-à-vis their moving averages, down from 31% two months ago. While 48% were in definable downtrends, up from 43% two months ago. Stocks with no meaningful trend were 30%, up from 27%.

    What’s more troublesome is that the weakness on the charts is greatest in the cyclical sectors such as manufacturing and materials, the oil complex, and most recently technology. All of these stocks show negative momentum and they are going lower. I think the recent top on the market will prove to be durable.

    Eric, Sy Harding has enviable positions in RWM, PSQ, and DOG. I have only been dabbling with the SPXS. His positions have provided me with some food for thought.
    Oct 12, 2014. 11:24 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Can The Fed Come To The Rescue Again If Needed? [View article]
    In recent years it was a good idea to buy the dips. In coming months, it is likely that sell the rally will be the key to success. There has been much technical damage done to stock prices in recent weeks and the momentum is clearly to the downside. Within the universe of 380 stocks that I follow (almost all are S&P items) 88% are currently below their 21 day averages with 77% below their 110 day averages. On Friday the percentage of stocks making 22 day and 88 day lows was a startling 70% and 49%, respectively.

    Structurally, only 22% of the 380 stocks were in definable uptrends vis-à-vis their moving averages, down from 31% two months ago. While 48% were in definable downtrends, up from 43% two months ago. Stocks with no meaningful trend were 30%, up from 27%.

    What’s more troublesome is that the weakness on the charts is greatest in the cyclical sectors such as manufacturing and materials, the oil complex, and most recently technology. All of these stocks show negative momentum and they are going lower. I think the recent top on the market will prove to be durable.
    Sy, your positions in RWM, PSQ, and DOG are enviable. I have only been dabbling with the SPXS. You have provided me with some food for thought.

    You can forget about the FED coming to the rescue. QE3 made things worse and thank God they can't screw around with that any more.
    Oct 12, 2014. 11:16 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stocks: Bigger Picture Showing Cracks [View article]
    Chris,

    Too much technical damage has been done to stock prices of cyclically sensitive stocks such as manufacturing and materials and the negative momentum on such price charts will likely send the market lower. Many of these stocks are making 4 to 6 month lows. We need to see their bottoms behind us before becoming optimistic about their near-term future. Right now it looks like their bottoms are still to come and that is ominous for the likes of the SPY or the RSP. Incidentally, the SPY has been outperforming the RSP only because it is a capitalization weighted index and the large caps like those in the ^OEX have outperformed the mid-caps like those in the MDY. So the general market is really weaker than the performance of the SPY might imply.
    Oct 10, 2014. 07:05 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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