Seeking Alpha
View as an RSS Feed

Thomas Sobon  

View Thomas Sobon's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Retail Stocks: Too Hot To Hold [View article]

    Masterfully done. A tip of the hat to you.
    Jul 30, 2015. 09:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Something Really Bad Going To Happen Soon? - Part II [View article]

    Excellent article
    Jul 29, 2015. 08:49 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Industrials: How Market Illness Spreads [View article]

    An excellent and truly comprehensive presentation. And you are correct in your assessment that things are likely to get worse before they get better. A hell of a lot of technical damage has been done on the price charts and there is no hint of bottoms on most of them.
    Jul 28, 2015. 11:37 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • European Disunion, Part II: Anti-Austerity Strikes Back [View article]

    Are you still carrying a lamp around with you during daylight hours while looking for an honest man? And, have you found him yet?
    Jul 27, 2015. 10:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Frustrated Yet? [View article]

    It would be nice if you were lecturing to the choir. But the choir is still listening to the Fed and the wheeler dealers on Wall Street.
    Jul 27, 2015. 08:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Crisis Watch - Where Lightning Could Strike Next [View article]

    You are tight. The investment winds are always on the side of the ablest navigator.
    Jul 25, 2015. 12:32 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Crisis Watch - Where Lightning Could Strike Next [View article]

    An excellent perspective. You mentioned fundamental and political considerations but didn't mention technical considerations about which I know you are well informed. According to the way I read the technical tea leaves at this time, the market is headed lower. Being a trader interested in short term swings, I was out of the market for a couple of months. A couple of days ago I initiated a short position by buying SPXS. The weakness that I see in the oils, materials, gold and manufacturing sectors is ominous and because of the momentum there is no hint of a bottom. I do not forecast bottoms because such forecasts can only be figments of one's imagination. But as long as trend weakness and momentum are bearish, I'll stay short. I sure as hell would not be buying stocks at this time. My only advice for people who are long the market is pray.
    Jul 24, 2015. 01:18 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • September Or December: When Will The Fed Boost Rates? [View article]

    You are probably right and when rates rise Wall Street will do its best to put a positive spin on things. If the likes of William McChesney Martin was the Fed chair, he would do what's right without caring about Wall Street. But Yellen in not anything like Martin was. So the Fed will likely yield and do its log rolling act and may even invent a reason to not raise rates.
    Jul 23, 2015. 01:30 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • European Disunion, Part II: Anti-Austerity Strikes Back [View article]
    Eric, a truly great article. The Outline of History by H. G. Wells was one of my favorite books. And in it he showed that the rise of nationalism in the root cause of revolutionary change. And when that happens the establishment is at risk. As I read what you wrote I could see the conditions that unfolded and gave rise to the American movement in 1776, the rise and fall of Napoleon in the early-1800's, the demise of Metternick of Austria in 1848, and dictatorship in Germany in the 1930's. Sometimes the change is for the better and at other times for the worse. But a lot of turmoil happens when it occurs. As a Chinese proverb states when you want to wish someone ill, wish that they live in interesting times. During such times, everyone's mettle gets tested. We should all fasten our seatbelts.
    Jul 23, 2015. 09:33 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • We Are NOT Living In A Material World [View article]
    Eric, good job. QE has distorted all markets. The imbalances are great and you highlighted many of the victims. It is going to be a difficult task getting balance back into the economy and the stock market.
    Jul 21, 2015. 06:08 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil: After The Fire, The Fire Still Burns [View article]

    I can't tell you that because like all technical analysts such as me and Eric, the price action on the charts will indicate that. What we do is watch the charts and identify a bottom as it is occurring. Volume of trading as well as the pattern are key determinants of bottoms. In recent months, the total volume of trading in the market was below historical norms and on some days by as much as 18%. That indicated there was no conviction of the part of the investment community about the direction of the market. There are other reliable technical indicators that we use. This is an art more so than a science. And since I am mainly interested in managing my own portfolio I don't divulge much about what I do. But when I read articles such as those posted by Eric or Joseph Calhoun, I know pretty darn well what they are writing about. And I'll bet Eric knew what I was referring to when I wrote the comment that you read.
    Jul 20, 2015. 11:37 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil: After The Fire, The Fire Still Burns [View article]
    Eric, good job.

    The waterfall drop in prices of stocks in the energy sector continues. It would be foolish to buy these stocks until after bottoms have been established. As an in investor, I want to see the bottom of a stock on its price chart recently behind me and not the top. Right now there is no hint of a bottom on any of the oils and MLP's that I track and I probably track almost as many as you do.
    Jul 20, 2015. 10:01 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Eternal Sunshine Of The Spotless Investor Mind [View article]
    Eric, another excellent article. You are right and the breadth indicators have been weakening and more so than what you referenced. But the Pollyanna attitude on Wall Street prevails and the investment community continues to bury its head in the sand so the market is doing what it is doing. I think that institutional investors are aware of this but they don't sell stocks because they don't know what to do with cash. Collectively, they are now holding more cash than they normally do. If snf when the herd mentality changes, they will get religion real quick. I agree with yhour conclusion and the question is when and not if.
    Jul 20, 2015. 09:42 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Service Sector Still Healthy, So Why Are Interest Rates So Low? [View article]
    David, you are correct. And that is why the central bankers are pushing on a string. They are trying to use a monetary solution to solve a problem that requires a political solution. But with the do-nothing Congress a political solution is not possible due to the log rolling by the right wing obstructionists. Right now an infrastructure program would be helpful.
    Jul 8, 2015. 11:13 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Service Sector Still Healthy, So Why Are Interest Rates So Low? [View article]
    Growth remains low because the stupid bankers are pushing on a string. They don' t seem to understand that capital expenditures for plant and equipment are the accelerator for the economy. Absent such, you can't get rapid growth. They should all go back to school and take a course in economics 101.
    Jul 8, 2015. 06:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment