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Thomas Sobon

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  • Why I'm Strongly Considering A Position In Extra Space Storage [View article]
    Brad: You wrote, "I often voice my disfavor for analysts, authors and investors who try to pitch some confusing thesis for a stock that is predicted to achieve high returns with short-term trades." There is nothing confusing about my thesis. I recommend that one should # before it goes up and sell it before it goes down. Now what can be wrong about making a profit on a stock in which one takes a position? Isn't that what intelligent investing is all about?

    Of course, if someone gets an adrenalin high by riding Wall Street's version of a roller coaster he may want to invest his hard earned money with the long term in mind. When I want to ride a roller coaster I simply go to an amusement park. When it comes to # I rely on a combination of fundamental and technical analysis, but mostly the latter. Fundamental analysis by itself is the way to go wrong with confidence.

    You and I have different ways of arriving at our conclusions. Nevertheless, I think your articles are worth reading. Your energy and zeal run at a high level. If you can get your UNC Tar Heels to do that, someday they might be able to outdo the UConn Huskies. When it comes to the stock market, I'm sort of like the Huskies while you are like the Tar Heels.
    Apr 14 01:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I'm Strongly Considering A Position In Extra Space Storage [View article]
    Brad, beautifully done. If you and I each had an apple and we exchanged apples, each of us would still have one apple. But if we each had an idea and we exchanged ideas, we would have two ideas. And if there was any virtue in each of our original ideas, the other could benefit by learning from the new idea. I respect the zeal by which you do what you do and that is why I continue to read all the articles that you write. So far I have zeroed in on about 20 authors on SA that are worth following and you are one of them.

    Incidentally, my January article was written when the price was $42.60 and not $43.97. I am out of the stock now because of technical weakness on EXR's price chart and in the general market. Because I anticipated the latter I wanted to reduce my exposure in the market. When the weakness is reversed and I am ready to get back in EXR I will do so. You have an approach to investing that works for you and as long as you are satisfied with the results you are getting you should stick with it. I do what works for me. The fundamental analysis that I do is as good as that done by anybody else. But I found that it was not good enough to produce the kind of investment gains that I sought. So having paid my dues in the School of Hard Knocks I turned to technical analysis. I went down just about every blind alley and up every creek before I got to where I am now. What I do now is proprietary and is paying off nicely. It evolved over a period of 25 years and it is still evolving. I often posted comments on a real time when I bought or sold stocks that I recommended so readers usually knew what I was doing at all times.

    I got the idea for using technical analysis shortly after getting out of college in 1959. I needed the product that I have now when I was a young man. I am now 84 so the benefit to be realized is not all that important to me now-a-days. I would be overjoyed if someone would figure out a way to attach a U-Haul trailer to a hearse.
    Apr 14 09:06 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The REIT Way To Master The Art Of Dividend Repeatability [View article]
    Brad, the dividend yield on RAS is now 8.7% with the stock priced at $7.80. The company is doing well and there should be at least one more dividend increase before yearend unless the economy falls apart. There were 7 quarterly increases in a row. The chart is weak, I am mostly on the sidelines at this time, and I'll wait until I see a positive reversal on the price chart before buying RAS. At some point, this stock has got to be a winner. You said that you met the CEO recently.
    Apr 12 06:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The REIT Way To Master The Art Of Dividend Repeatability [View article]
    Brad, the UConn men have now won 4 national championships. That is as many as UNC and Duke combined. The girls won 9. Only the UCLA men won more, 10 under Wooden. Geno will get his 10th next year.

    Stocks trend up and collapse down. With regard to market timing, I sold all of my EXR and most of RAS, the only stocks I owned. And now I have a position in SPXU which is a 3X inverse leveraged play on a market decline. My charts keep giving me good feedback with regard to timing but thus far I have not been as aggressive as I ought to be. When this sell-off is completed, I expect to be in a better financial condition than I ever was. I really would like to meet you and discuss the merits of technical analysis which is something that you disdain.
    Apr 11 09:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The REIT Way To Master The Art Of Dividend Repeatability [View article]
    Brad, you may prefer to ski-diddle the golf ball toward the desired destination, but I found that the kicking wedge works very well especially when nobody is looking.

    I like your choice of EXR for up and down markets. Excellent fundamentals that work well on a secular basis. Much like those of the UConn Huskies.
    Apr 10 09:08 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Economic Outlook For Rest Of 2014: Acceleration [View article]
    James, I hope you are right. But I am more interested in what happens in the stock market. My workbook indicates that there is a lot of air in stock prices and therefor I am cautious. There was a lot of dumping on Friday and if the market is down on Monday on significant volume, look out for falling stocks beginning with Tuesday. If that happens the top for the year could already be established.
    Apr 6 11:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lack Of Productive Income Dooms Lack Of Demand [View article]
    Joseph, you hit the nail on the head. The problem should be obvious to all but those who are in a position to do something constructive are not interested to in solving the problem. Most significant among them are the obstructionist in Congress. Unless the Tooth Fairy intervenes we are each on our own.
    Apr 3 04:53 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Quantitative Extravaganza Fiddle-Faddle, Up The River Without A Paddle [View article]
    Excellent article. Bernanke and his buddies should long live in infamy. But they will likely continue to be deemed heroes by the bankers, captains of industry and the operators on Wall Street. After all, when you rob Peter to pay Paul, you can always count on the support of Peter. As far as the rest of us are concerned, Peter gets sore and you can't do business with a sore Peter.
    Mar 31 09:28 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's A Prime Time To Buy Ashford Prime [View article]
    Brad, you sure do get around. I wrote an article on AHT prior to the spinoff and was optimistic at the time. But just before the spinoff I soured on the deal because of the explanation given for the poor Q3 results. I sold my shares and in a comment I advised others to do so. I continue to track AHP and someday it could be a good investment because of the high quality of its assets and the pipeline provided by AHT. But I doubt that I will ever be interested in AHT because it is shifting the good stuff to AHP while keeping the poorer stuff. I didn't understand the rational for that strategy. If anything, I thought it should have been the other way around. The chart on AHP shows that the stock is in a strong decline pattern with no indication of a bottom. Some day when they boost the dividend to where it has a competitive yield with other REITs it could be a very attractive growth stock. I haven't got the foggiest idea of where the bottom might be. And a dividend yield of 1.3% isn't very appealing.

    Too bad we couldn't get together on our anticipated wager on UConn and The Heels. Maybe next year?
    Mar 26 07:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Fed Is Backed Into A Corner With No Way Out [View article]
    Good job. Now I have a better understanding of why I disliked the idiotic policies of Bernanke and his buddies at the Fed.
    Mar 26 08:54 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • RAIT Financial Trust Merits Consideration [View article]
    RAS now yields 8.1% and goes ex-dividend on April 2.With 5 such payments in 53 weeks, the dividend return would be 10.2%. But the string of dividend increases could continue and, if so, the yield would be higher.

    The stock was a laggard in the market during the last 3 months since hitting a high of 9.21. The weakness on the price chart is on the verge of reversing. It did so with price but not yet with relative strength. It would have to do that for the reversal to be complete. If the stock goes to 10, the total return would be 20%. I think it has the potential to go 12 in a year or two if the dividend increases come through as I expect. And it is Mr. Market and not me who will determine the outcome.

    Management has well defined goals that are easily understood and it is executing very effectively. As an investor it is usually a good idea to be concerned about the jockey as well as the horse.
    Mar 25 10:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Could You Use Some Extra Space In Your Investment Portfolio? [View article]
    Brad, UConn won. I'll be cheering for The Heels.

    I figured 50 cents also. EXR is not doing development so the acquisitions should make contributions immediately.
    Mar 23 12:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Could You Use Some Extra Space In Your Investment Portfolio? [View article]
    Brad, I think the dividend will be increased in the upcoming quarter. Do you have an estimate for the size of the next dividend increase? The last quarterly increase a year ago was from 25 cents to 40 cents.
    Mar 22 09:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Blackstone's Private Equity Model Is Hitting All Cylinders [View article]
    Brad, good article on BX. I track the stock and the chart was strong from 25 up to the current price level. It looks a little toppy here but it is still bullish. With the high dividend yield and good fundamentals, it looks interesting. Good luck with it.
    Mar 21 11:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Could You Use Some Extra Space In Your Investment Portfolio? [View article]
    General, thanks but that decision is not reversible.
    Mar 20 03:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment