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Thomas Sobon

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  • Could You Use Some Extra Space In Your Investment Portfolio? [View article]
    The price action on the chart has been constructive. The trend is clearly upward on both absolute and relative strength bases. Even in a weak market EXR should be able to perform well from this level because of the strong fundamentals.
    Jan 28, 2014. 04:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Atlas Pipeline Partners Looks Appealing [View article]
    arb, it doesn't change my opinion at all. 2008 is long gone and I am always concerned about what will happen in the future. In fact, my biggest gainer in 2013 was RAS and it was a wreck in 2008. I was the only analyst who followed the stock in 2012 and wrote several articles on it. I still hold a sizable position in it. But I am counting on two stocks to provide outperformance in 2014. They are APL and EXR. APL had a stellar dividend record during the past three years. And I expect it to continue in 2014. If APL can do half as well as RAS (which I believe it will) I will be a happy camper. With the market taking a big hit today, APL is up nicely.
    Jan 23, 2014. 03:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • RAIT Is On A Roll [View article]
    All dividends paid in 2013 were return of capital and therefore not taxable. The same will likely be the case in 2014.
    Jan 23, 2014. 09:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Atlas Pipeline Partners Looks Appealing [View article]
    APL is up 73 cents today in a down market. Anybody who tries to rationalize the recent price action of the stock stands a good chance of getting a mental hernia. A big block gets dumped and clobbers the stock. Then it fluctuates widely and destroys the price pattern on the chart which was showing promise of a technical reversal. Hopefully, a dividend increase within the next week will clarify what the situation is for the stock.
    Jan 21, 2014. 03:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • RAIT Is On A Roll [View article]
    The common stock offer by RAS came as a surprise to me. I thought that the convertible note offer would take care of its finance needs for a while. But now I can see that there was a method to management's action that makes sense. IRT commenced an offering of 6.5 million shares and, of course, RAS is the external adviser. IRT is a thinly traded stock and its monthly dividend of 6 cents provides a dividend yield of 8.5%. I can see that from the volume of trading taking place the underwriting is going poorly and RAS will likely buy about $10 million of the new shares. So, RAS will get 8.5% return from the dividend plus 70 basis points for management fees. IRT should have no trouble deploying the new funds because it has done well doing that so far. Long term, IRT will likely work out well for RAS but it will have to get bigger and attract a following. The bottom line is that the RAS purchase of IRT shares should be modestly accretive.

    The RAIT offer caused the stock to drop but with a 7.3% yield it is likely that the worst is over.
    Jan 21, 2014. 02:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Atlas Pipeline Partners Looks Appealing [View article]
    rip, you have to know the simple rules of mathematics to understand how and why that works.
    Jan 18, 2014. 08:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Atlas Pipeline Partners Looks Appealing [View article]
    rip, If the price is above the trend lines it will continue to go up until the price action reverses and breaks the trend lines on the downside. That is a mathematical certainty. And, of course, the opposite is also true. The change in direction goes with the reversals.
    Jan 18, 2014. 08:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Atlas Pipeline Partners Looks Appealing [View article]
    If you want to understand what is going on with the APL’s price chart, read what follows and do your own technical analysis.

    Being Informed about Your Investments

    I use both fundamental and technical analysis in doing what I do. I doubt that many of you are well versed on technical analysis, but that should not deter you from doing it. Anybody can do a credible job when it comes to technical analysis of a stock. But before proceeding, I want to warn you that what works for a stock doesn't work very well when it comes to general market indices such as the SPY RSP or ETFs because there are breadth and diffusion considerations that are of overriding importance.

    Just follow these instructions:

    (1) Go to Yahoo Finance and type in the ticker symbol of interest. (You may want to start by choosing APL.)

    (2) From the menu on the left select "Basic Tech. Analysis."

    (3) From the menu on top, compare your stock with the S&P Equal Weight Index (RSP) or the S&P Industrial Index (SPY). That will show you how your stock has been performing in comparison to the overall market. You want your stock to be a leader in the market and not a laggard.

    (4) Then from the moving averages, select 10, 20, and 50 (they must be selected one at a time). These aren't the time intervals I use but they will do.

    (5a) Having done that, you are now ready to render an informed opinion as a "market technician." If the stock's price is above the trend lines, the indication is that it will go higher; if below, it is likely to go lower. If higher the stock is indicated to rise because it is a mathematical certainty that will happen (or maybe fluctuate down to the trend lines from time to time) as long as the price stays above its trend lines. If lower, the same rule applies.

    (5b) For practice, try this. Do as directed in 5a above. For the range (time duration) select 5 years. Leave those setting alone and go to other ticker symbols by typing a new ticker in the box on the upper right corner of the page where is says “Get technical analysis chart for” Then flip through a bunch of charts for various companies of your choice. Try to select stocks in a variety of industries. Since 70% of the stocks move with the market expect to see some similarity in the chart patterns of stocks within industry groups.

    (6) Trend reversals are difficult to forecast in advance but they don't have to be. They occur when the trend lines as indicated by the moving averages are newly broken. In order for the reversal to be complete, all three of the moving averages have to be broken. Once broken, you either have a "durable" reversal or a "false" reversal. With lots of practice, you can learn how to (a) make decisions early in the reversal process and (b) distinguish between durable and false reversals.

    (7) Technical analysis is a continuing process and it doesn't forecast anything by itself. It shows you the up-to-date end of the stock's price history. With that as guidance you can be the forecaster and make an informed guess regarding the stock's price action beginning with the next trading day, which is, of course, the growing edge of the future. Try it. You'll like it.

    (8) Technical analysis is an art and not a science. Stay up to date and you'll take the mystery out of stock price movements. Practice and become self-reliant and you'll chain the wheel of fortune and never have to sit in fear of its rotation as far as the stock market is concerned.

    Another technique that could be used to keep up to date on stocks of interest to you is as follows: (1) go to Yahoo Finance and click on the "Portfolios" tab. (2) Create a portfolio by listing your stocks as directed. (3) Create a shortcut so it appears on your desktop. It's that simple. When you want to see your portfolio, click on the shortcut. You will get up to date quotes on the stocks chosen. Furthermore, below those quotes you will see a list of current news items on each stock in the portfolio.
    Jan 18, 2014. 03:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Atlas Pipeline Partners Looks Appealing [View article]
    Joseph, APL is acting like there is something wrong that is not generally known. The stock is making a new low on my 6 month chart and that indicates that the bottom has not yet been established. When I wrote the article it appeared that the bottom was forming. With all of the positive things that management divulged in the Q3 conference call and also the news releases, the stock should be strong.

    Take a look at my article on EXR. This stock should be a winner in 2014.

    My breadth indicators on the market indicate that it is vulnerable to a general sell-off. Some major companies are reporting poor results for Q4 (like INTC and GE) and I am prepared to buy protection by buying SPXU which is in effect an inverse short. I don't advise anyone to do that because one has to fully understand how to time its purchase and/or sale. It's very tricky.
    Jan 17, 2014. 05:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Atlas Pipeline Partners Looks Appealing [View article]
    Joseph, I am perplexed by the price action of APL. I know I did a good job with the fundamental analysis. There will be a dividend meeting in about a week and I expect an increase. But when I update the chart daily there is no indication of buying support. I do a lot of work on the general market and that indicates a top is forming. I am going to stay with my small position and just wait for the dividend declaration before trying to add. ... Thanks for the comment.
    Jan 17, 2014. 03:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Atlas Pipeline Partners Looks Appealing [View article]
    The next dividend declaration date is about January 24. I am hopeful that the distribution will be increased to 65 cents. But it's just an educated guess.
    Jan 17, 2014. 09:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • RAIT's Composition Sounds A Little Like Beethoven's 5th [View article]
    The issue came as a surprise to me. I thought the funds raised via the convert offering would suffice for a while. I don't know what they plan to do with all of the new money but they have employed assets accretively in the past and I'll have to see what they are up to. With the stock yielding 7.3%, I am not concerned about a sell off.
    Jan 17, 2014. 09:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Atlas Pipeline Partners Looks Appealing [View article]
    earl, I like the fundamentals very much and I would like to take a big position when the chart turns positive. I am basically a market technician even though I have been doing fundamental analysis for more than 50 years. I also am equally bullish on EXR which I wrote an article on that was posted on Monday. I only write about 6 or 7 articles per year (plus follow-ups) on companies that I buy for my portfolio. And I take concentrated positions. Right now, the chart on EXR has turned bullish and if I was going to put new money in the market it would be in EXR. But I am eager to add to APL. With the dividend consideration, I think the total return could be north of 15%. If APL only rose to 38 by year end, the total return would be about 20%. If I have a concern, it is not about APL; it would be about a general market correction.
    Jan 17, 2014. 12:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Atlas Pipeline Partners Looks Appealing [View article]
    goose, take a look at my article on EXR. I think you will like this stock.
    Jan 16, 2014. 09:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Atlas Pipeline Partners Looks Appealing [View article]
    No. I also said that I could hold and collect 2.70 in dividends and thereby offset any losses down to 31.74. And that is what I would also consider. Inasmuch as I have profits in my other positions and my purchase of EXR a few days ago is also up a couple of points, I can afford to gamble a little. In all of my positions combined, I have got to protect my seed money at all times. I only invest in up to five stocks at any one time. With APL, the stock has an indicated dividend yield of 7.3% and the dividend will be boosted as early as Q1. With 2.70 paid in 2014, the probable dividend yield would be 8.1%. I only have a small position in APL at this time and I hope to increase it significantly when the stock shows a technical reversal. The fundamentals are too good for this stock languish the way that is has been doing. But, I won't be buying more shares until I see the reversal taking place. I was surprised to see somebody dump 1.2 million shares at the market when the stock only trades about 550,000 shares a day. I don't think that I overlooked anything substantial of a fundamental nature.
    Jan 16, 2014. 08:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment