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Thomas Sobon  

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  • Atlas Pipeline Partners Looks Appealing [View article]
    A distribution of 62 cents has been declared and the stock will trade ex-dividend on Feb. 5. With the stock trading at 33.45, a buyer of it before the ex date will be able to collect 5 payments during the next 53 weeks. If it is assumed that the rate will stay at 62 cents per quarter, he would collect $3.10 per share. That would equate to a return on 9.3%. But I expect the rate to be increased and the amount will be about $3.32. That would make the return 9.9%.

    With the futures indicating a very weak opening on Friday, it looks like the next few trading days could be ugly for stock prices. It may be that APL could be bought on a very attractive yield basis. I remain bullish on the company and still expect the stock to do well in 2014.
    Jan 31, 2014. 08:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Could You Use Some Extra Space In Your Investment Portfolio? [View article]
    Brad, with regard to your 23.3X FFO being rich consider this: EXR just broke 45 on the upside. At 45 it is priced at 18.9X the FFO estimate for 2014. If it goes to 49 as I expect it to, it will be priced at 20.5X. It would have to go to 55 to be priced at 23.3X. When I take into consideration that the company is growing and the dividend is being increased at a rapid rate (60% in 2013) the multiple doesn't seem to be excessive. But, as usual I will let Mr. Market adjudicate that matter. I know your methods differ from mine. That's why they make vanilla and chocolate ice cream.
    Jan 30, 2014. 10:17 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Atlas Pipeline Partners Looks Appealing [View article]
    Stocks trend up and collapse down. I think the sharp drop in prices in recent days will prove to be a common garden variety kind of "collapse" and nothing to be overly concerned about if one is holding conservatively priced stocks with high and secure dividends. I put APL in that category along with selective MLPs and REITs. My average cost for APL is 33.78 and I will be looking to buy additional shares if the stock can close above its recent low of 32.72 during the next 10 days. But, if somebody is holding stocks in the groups that were leaders in the market in 2013 he is out of luck because there will be a change in leadership and their hour of fame is over. I remain of the persuasion that the likes of APL and EXR will be winners in 2014.
    Jan 29, 2014. 03:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Could You Use Some Extra Space In Your Investment Portfolio? [View article]
    I am a market technician. Price-earnings ratios and such yardsticks are not important to me. When it comes to valuations, others can do what they please. I am guided by the technical indications on the price chart as it evolves. When the fundamentals and the technical considerations on the price chart are strong as they are in the case of EXR, I want to be in that stock for as long as both remain so. I think that EXR has little resistance up to its recent high of 49. It may be wishful thinking but that is my opinion. If the price action falters, I will change my opinion.

    I think it was Lincoln who said that the nice thing about the future is that it comes at us one day at a time. I update my workbook daily. It includes 400 stocks, ETFs, interest rates an so on. The process takes about 800,000 calculations. I am bearish on the market but bullish on EXR, APL, and a couple of other stocks. I really don't care what happens with the market. I am confident that the stocks I go with will be winners. Who knows, I might even reverse today's strong opinion as early as tomorrow.

    There is only one thing worse than a pretty girl who knows it, and that's a guy who thinks he is right. I prefer Mr. Market be the guy who thinks he's right. That is why I rely on him to indicate what I should do.

    You say 23.3X appears rich. Well it was even richer 6 months ago when earnings were lower.
    Jan 28, 2014. 05:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Could You Use Some Extra Space In Your Investment Portfolio? [View article]
    The price action on the chart has been constructive. The trend is clearly upward on both absolute and relative strength bases. Even in a weak market EXR should be able to perform well from this level because of the strong fundamentals.
    Jan 28, 2014. 04:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Atlas Pipeline Partners Looks Appealing [View article]
    arb, it doesn't change my opinion at all. 2008 is long gone and I am always concerned about what will happen in the future. In fact, my biggest gainer in 2013 was RAS and it was a wreck in 2008. I was the only analyst who followed the stock in 2012 and wrote several articles on it. I still hold a sizable position in it. But I am counting on two stocks to provide outperformance in 2014. They are APL and EXR. APL had a stellar dividend record during the past three years. And I expect it to continue in 2014. If APL can do half as well as RAS (which I believe it will) I will be a happy camper. With the market taking a big hit today, APL is up nicely.
    Jan 23, 2014. 03:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • RAIT Is On A Roll [View article]
    All dividends paid in 2013 were return of capital and therefore not taxable. The same will likely be the case in 2014.
    Jan 23, 2014. 09:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Atlas Pipeline Partners Looks Appealing [View article]
    APL is up 73 cents today in a down market. Anybody who tries to rationalize the recent price action of the stock stands a good chance of getting a mental hernia. A big block gets dumped and clobbers the stock. Then it fluctuates widely and destroys the price pattern on the chart which was showing promise of a technical reversal. Hopefully, a dividend increase within the next week will clarify what the situation is for the stock.
    Jan 21, 2014. 03:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • RAIT Is On A Roll [View article]
    The common stock offer by RAS came as a surprise to me. I thought that the convertible note offer would take care of its finance needs for a while. But now I can see that there was a method to management's action that makes sense. IRT commenced an offering of 6.5 million shares and, of course, RAS is the external adviser. IRT is a thinly traded stock and its monthly dividend of 6 cents provides a dividend yield of 8.5%. I can see that from the volume of trading taking place the underwriting is going poorly and RAS will likely buy about $10 million of the new shares. So, RAS will get 8.5% return from the dividend plus 70 basis points for management fees. IRT should have no trouble deploying the new funds because it has done well doing that so far. Long term, IRT will likely work out well for RAS but it will have to get bigger and attract a following. The bottom line is that the RAS purchase of IRT shares should be modestly accretive.

    The RAIT offer caused the stock to drop but with a 7.3% yield it is likely that the worst is over.
    Jan 21, 2014. 02:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Atlas Pipeline Partners Looks Appealing [View article]
    rip, you have to know the simple rules of mathematics to understand how and why that works.
    Jan 18, 2014. 08:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Atlas Pipeline Partners Looks Appealing [View article]
    rip, If the price is above the trend lines it will continue to go up until the price action reverses and breaks the trend lines on the downside. That is a mathematical certainty. And, of course, the opposite is also true. The change in direction goes with the reversals.
    Jan 18, 2014. 08:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Atlas Pipeline Partners Looks Appealing [View article]
    If you want to understand what is going on with the APL’s price chart, read what follows and do your own technical analysis.

    Being Informed about Your Investments

    I use both fundamental and technical analysis in doing what I do. I doubt that many of you are well versed on technical analysis, but that should not deter you from doing it. Anybody can do a credible job when it comes to technical analysis of a stock. But before proceeding, I want to warn you that what works for a stock doesn't work very well when it comes to general market indices such as the SPY RSP or ETFs because there are breadth and diffusion considerations that are of overriding importance.

    Just follow these instructions:

    (1) Go to Yahoo Finance and type in the ticker symbol of interest. (You may want to start by choosing APL.)

    (2) From the menu on the left select "Basic Tech. Analysis."

    (3) From the menu on top, compare your stock with the S&P Equal Weight Index (RSP) or the S&P Industrial Index (SPY). That will show you how your stock has been performing in comparison to the overall market. You want your stock to be a leader in the market and not a laggard.

    (4) Then from the moving averages, select 10, 20, and 50 (they must be selected one at a time). These aren't the time intervals I use but they will do.

    (5a) Having done that, you are now ready to render an informed opinion as a "market technician." If the stock's price is above the trend lines, the indication is that it will go higher; if below, it is likely to go lower. If higher the stock is indicated to rise because it is a mathematical certainty that will happen (or maybe fluctuate down to the trend lines from time to time) as long as the price stays above its trend lines. If lower, the same rule applies.

    (5b) For practice, try this. Do as directed in 5a above. For the range (time duration) select 5 years. Leave those setting alone and go to other ticker symbols by typing a new ticker in the box on the upper right corner of the page where is says “Get technical analysis chart for” Then flip through a bunch of charts for various companies of your choice. Try to select stocks in a variety of industries. Since 70% of the stocks move with the market expect to see some similarity in the chart patterns of stocks within industry groups.

    (6) Trend reversals are difficult to forecast in advance but they don't have to be. They occur when the trend lines as indicated by the moving averages are newly broken. In order for the reversal to be complete, all three of the moving averages have to be broken. Once broken, you either have a "durable" reversal or a "false" reversal. With lots of practice, you can learn how to (a) make decisions early in the reversal process and (b) distinguish between durable and false reversals.

    (7) Technical analysis is a continuing process and it doesn't forecast anything by itself. It shows you the up-to-date end of the stock's price history. With that as guidance you can be the forecaster and make an informed guess regarding the stock's price action beginning with the next trading day, which is, of course, the growing edge of the future. Try it. You'll like it.

    (8) Technical analysis is an art and not a science. Stay up to date and you'll take the mystery out of stock price movements. Practice and become self-reliant and you'll chain the wheel of fortune and never have to sit in fear of its rotation as far as the stock market is concerned.

    Another technique that could be used to keep up to date on stocks of interest to you is as follows: (1) go to Yahoo Finance and click on the "Portfolios" tab. (2) Create a portfolio by listing your stocks as directed. (3) Create a shortcut so it appears on your desktop. It's that simple. When you want to see your portfolio, click on the shortcut. You will get up to date quotes on the stocks chosen. Furthermore, below those quotes you will see a list of current news items on each stock in the portfolio.
    Jan 18, 2014. 03:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Atlas Pipeline Partners Looks Appealing [View article]
    Joseph, APL is acting like there is something wrong that is not generally known. The stock is making a new low on my 6 month chart and that indicates that the bottom has not yet been established. When I wrote the article it appeared that the bottom was forming. With all of the positive things that management divulged in the Q3 conference call and also the news releases, the stock should be strong.

    Take a look at my article on EXR. This stock should be a winner in 2014.

    My breadth indicators on the market indicate that it is vulnerable to a general sell-off. Some major companies are reporting poor results for Q4 (like INTC and GE) and I am prepared to buy protection by buying SPXU which is in effect an inverse short. I don't advise anyone to do that because one has to fully understand how to time its purchase and/or sale. It's very tricky.
    Jan 17, 2014. 05:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Atlas Pipeline Partners Looks Appealing [View article]
    Joseph, I am perplexed by the price action of APL. I know I did a good job with the fundamental analysis. There will be a dividend meeting in about a week and I expect an increase. But when I update the chart daily there is no indication of buying support. I do a lot of work on the general market and that indicates a top is forming. I am going to stay with my small position and just wait for the dividend declaration before trying to add. ... Thanks for the comment.
    Jan 17, 2014. 03:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Atlas Pipeline Partners Looks Appealing [View article]
    The next dividend declaration date is about January 24. I am hopeful that the distribution will be increased to 65 cents. But it's just an educated guess.
    Jan 17, 2014. 09:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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