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Thomas Sobon  

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  • It's Not Coming [View article]
    This "emperor's new clothes" story was to be expected. Monetary easing only works when the monetary situation is restrictive. That was never the case since the beginning of QE. Ben Bernanke should go down in history as another "Wrong Way Corrigan."
    Jul 22, 2014. 08:25 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Treasury Solicits QE Absolution [View article]
    Sounds a lot like Don Quixote tilting with windmills.
    Jul 20, 2014. 09:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Investors Get Out In Time This Time? [View article]
    Sy, you make money by buying low and selling high. The market is now at its all-time high. Is there any question as to what the prudent investor, on balance, should be doing?
    Jul 18, 2014. 09:41 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Rambunctious Relationship Between REITs And Rates [View article]
    Adam, very good and very well written.
    Jul 18, 2014. 04:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Regression To The Mean And Why Investors Should Not Ignore Its Importance [View article]
    Excellent reminder. You can post the same message every six months forever. Experience keeps an expensive school but fools will learn in no other.
    Jul 15, 2014. 01:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Return To Normalcy [View article]
    "while the Fed would have to extricate itself from a policy regime they barely - and that is generous - understand"

    Joseph, that is a gross understatement!!!!!
    Jul 14, 2014. 09:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • RAIT Financial's Asset Management Capabilities Could Unlock Material Value [View article]

    You will find it listed in the income statement right after the AFFO numbers. In 2013, CAD was 88 cents per share and there was a gain of 4 cents in Q2. My guess is that CAD will be about $1.00 in 2014 and it figures to be higher in 2015. Dane is right. The dividend is well covered. Thus far there were 8 quarterly increases in a row and more are possible. As far as equity raises are concerned, it is unlikely that more common stock issuance is not likely this year because management did a lot of that already. And, if equity capital is needed, there are shelf registrations for the use preferred if needed. Any such offering would be accretive because the financing would only be needed if a bundle of loans was ready for securitization. And on equity used for bridge loans, the leveraged return would be about 16-18%. With the favorable momentum that RAS has going for it, the dividend rate appears to be very secure.
    Jul 12, 2014. 06:17 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Half Full, Half Empty Or Too Big Of A Glass? [View article]
    The lack of effective demand has been the problem from day one of rescue by the central banks.
    Jul 11, 2014. 02:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are Central Banks Really Protecting Us? [View article]

    If it wasn't for the Fed what would we do for aggravation?
    Jul 11, 2014. 02:48 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Credit Markets Embrace 'Noise,' But That Is Hardly Reassuring [View article]

    Your articles are excellent but your gospels are of no apparent interest to the non-believers at the Fed. Your laments and those by the likes of Eric Parnell, Sy Harding, Cullen Roche and other savvy commentators are much like the laments of Job in the Bible. Let's hope that a voice out of a whirlwind is heard and heeded by members of the Fed and they thereby get religion regarding sound economic theory.
    Jul 3, 2014. 09:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Where Did All The Keynesians Go? [View article]

    Monetary policy only works well when credit is restrictive. Such was not the case during the past five years. The only way to get sustainable economic growth is through spending on capital goods or infrastructure programs. QE is just smoke and mirrors.
    Jul 3, 2014. 09:22 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Less Than Zero: The Case For Cash [View article]

    History has valuable lessons to teach. If you want to understand politics, study the revolutionary period from 1776 to 1848. For economics, study 1929 to the present. If you want to fully understand the inadequacies (stupidity?) of Bernanke's QE policies, wait a few years and see what historians conclude.

    The prudent man rule states that an investment operation is one which promises (1) safety of principal and (2) a satisfactory return. Of the two, safety of principal is usually more important. So your reference to cash makes a lot of sense.
    Jun 29, 2014. 09:31 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Benefits Were Supposed To Seriously Outweigh These Costs [View article]
    Monetary easing only works when credit has been restrictive. Such was never the case in the U. S. during the past five years. Bernanke and the Fed gave the idea of QE respectability and it was adopted by central bankers in other countries. The problems that Joseph expounded upon are similar in those countries. It could be that we now have an international house of cards....
    Jun 29, 2014. 08:45 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Way Of The Bull And The Bear [View article]

    Your Rip Van Winkle approach to investing would be fine as long as secular growth trends are favorable. Right now, their favorability status is questionable. With central banks doing what they are doing to prop up economies in major countries around the world, it is possible that secular growth trends are weak or maybe non-existent. A Rip Van Winkle had better not be betting on a house made out of cards.
    Jun 28, 2014. 12:18 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Second Quarter GDP Bounce-Back May Not Be Bullish [View article]
    Sy, very cogently stated.
    Jun 28, 2014. 08:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment