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Thomas Sobon

 
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  • Realty Income - Scared Money Never Wins [View article]
    Brad, I would be remiss if I didn't chime in and disagree with your opinion about disregarding Mr. Market. You have been bullish on Realty Income from 55 down to its current price of 39. As far as market performance was concerned, the ticker symbol "O" was much more like the number "0." One of these days the stock will make a bottom. I am all for buying low and selling high. But when the stock is in a well defined downtrend, it pays to wait until the bottoming process is underway. Guessing where it will be depends upon which side of the bed you got out of on a certain morning. Only Mr. Market can do that and he doesn't guess. Fundamental analysis by itself is the way to go wrong with confidence. The REITs are out of favor and a number of them have very weak charts. Stocks like LXP, EXR, HCP, HR, HCN, O, and OFC among others are at or near their yearly low. I pay close attention to the behavior of Mr. Market and the three REITs that I recommended (RAS, MPW, and NNN) and all three are doing well.

    I wish you luck because you are going to need lots and lots of luck. I wrote this comment because I thought it would be a good idea to stir the pot.
    Nov 22 11:08 AM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Now What's Wrong With The REITs? [View article]
    I track 8 mREITs but don't intend to buy any of them. When I put money at risk I want the bottom of the price chart behind me, not in front of me. They are still trying to find a bottom.
    Nov 11 03:07 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Time To Consider National Retail Properties Is Now [View article]
    You are quite right that O has increased its dividend more rapidly than NNN. As far as I am concerned NNN is overly conservative with its balance sheet. I would like to see management make greater use of debt and less reliance on common share issuance. But I have no control over that. As an analyst I have to cope the company's operations as they exist. NNN isn't the very best stock that there ever was. But neither is O. My recommendation was based upon its potential for investment gain. And I expect it to do well beginning with the near term future. If I am wrong criticize me for that. ALL other considerations are of secondary importance. When Seeking Alpha posts a new article, it tells the reader to write his own if he doesn't agree with what the author wrote. Why don't you just write your own article and refute what I wrote?
    Sep 27 05:01 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ranking The Russell 1000 Stocks By Dividend And Earnings Yields [View article]
    Hhmiles
    You wrote that in your humble opinion "readers deserve a higher standard" than Arie employed in writing his article. In my humble opinion you are being grossly unfair. He wrote an article to demonstrate what works for him. If you disagree so be it. But a sarcastic response was uncalled for.
    May 9 08:30 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Who's Really Ignoring 47% Of Americans Today? [View article]
    Your comments, to be polite, are stupid.
    Jan 13 08:56 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Worst Bear Market Is Yet To Come [View article]
    billcharles, you are right. It won't happen again for as long as the sun shall rise or 90 days, which ever comes first.

    There was the Panic of 1907 when speculators with the backing of bankers tried to corner the copper market. There was the real estate bust in Florida in 1924 when promoters sold as many as 18 subdivision on a two acre plot of land. There was the crash of 1929 when the margin rate was 10% and an oil company like Cities Service sold stock to make margin loans at 20%, and, of course, there were other busts since then. After each one, there were those who said that such could never happen again.

    We learn from history that we do not learn from history. Eric warned us that something dire could happen and documented reasons why. I think each of us would do well to be concerned about the risks involved.

    Experience keeps an expensive school but fools will learn in no other.
    Jun 5 03:43 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bull Market Continues, But Will Cash Be Summertime King? [View article]
    In effect, the stock market is a house of cards and the bigger fool theory will prove to be the correct approach to participating until the day of reckoning comes. What amazes me is that during the last 18 of 21 trading days, the market moved sideways and then trended higher even though the volumes of shares traded were below the 45 day norm. For the 21 days referenced, by an average of minus 13%. This is very uncharacteristic of a sustainable bullish move in the market. But, when you are in a barroom environment you should either drink up or get out. Which ever course you choose, remember that you are the designated driver when it comes to managing your investment portfolio.
    May 31 09:51 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I'm Strongly Considering A Position In Extra Space Storage [View article]
    Brad, beautifully done. If you and I each had an apple and we exchanged apples, each of us would still have one apple. But if we each had an idea and we exchanged ideas, we would have two ideas. And if there was any virtue in each of our original ideas, the other could benefit by learning from the new idea. I respect the zeal by which you do what you do and that is why I continue to read all the articles that you write. So far I have zeroed in on about 20 authors on SA that are worth following and you are one of them.

    Incidentally, my January article was written when the price was $42.60 and not $43.97. I am out of the stock now because of technical weakness on EXR's price chart and in the general market. Because I anticipated the latter I wanted to reduce my exposure in the market. When the weakness is reversed and I am ready to get back in EXR I will do so. You have an approach to investing that works for you and as long as you are satisfied with the results you are getting you should stick with it. I do what works for me. The fundamental analysis that I do is as good as that done by anybody else. But I found that it was not good enough to produce the kind of investment gains that I sought. So having paid my dues in the School of Hard Knocks I turned to technical analysis. I went down just about every blind alley and up every creek before I got to where I am now. What I do now is proprietary and is paying off nicely. It evolved over a period of 25 years and it is still evolving. I often posted comments on a real time when I bought or sold stocks that I recommended so readers usually knew what I was doing at all times.

    I got the idea for using technical analysis shortly after getting out of college in 1959. I needed the product that I have now when I was a young man. I am now 84 so the benefit to be realized is not all that important to me now-a-days. I would be overjoyed if someone would figure out a way to attach a U-Haul trailer to a hearse.
    Apr 14 09:06 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Can The Bulls Make A Stand Near Support? [View article]

    Chris, I read your article and then I went to my files and dug out my notes on Emerson's essay on politics because I had the impression that we may be faced with a house of cards. What bothers me most is our do-nothing Congress. Huge problems abound throughout the world and the extremist among the right wingers are not interested in political solutions for anything. Also, political problems exist in many places around the world and politicians there seem to unable to resolve them. Emerson wrote “Mother Nature is not democratic, nor limited-monarchical, but despotic. And she won’t be fooled by any tinkering with her authority. Men have their laws and things have their laws.When it is time for change, change will occur one way or another." In the final analysis Mother Nature is in charge and if we do have a house of cards a day of reckoning could be near. When I think about that and consider what is going on in this country and around the world I have to wonder if there can be such a thing as a meaningful "support level" for the market.

    The RSP made a lower low today. That means that there is no evidence that the bottom for the selloff is behind us. The top occurred 24 days ago and failed to reach it 11 days ago. I like to buy stocks when the bottom is behind me and the top in front of me; that's the opposite of what exists right now. I didn't like the fact that the market was down significantly today on just average volume. Friday could be a bad day in the market.
    Aug 7 09:08 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Less Than Zero: The Case For Cash [View article]
    Eric,

    History has valuable lessons to teach. If you want to understand politics, study the revolutionary period from 1776 to 1848. For economics, study 1929 to the present. If you want to fully understand the inadequacies (stupidity?) of Bernanke's QE policies, wait a few years and see what historians conclude.

    The prudent man rule states that an investment operation is one which promises (1) safety of principal and (2) a satisfactory return. Of the two, safety of principal is usually more important. So your reference to cash makes a lot of sense.
    Jun 29 09:31 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel: Don't Believe Bloomberg's Google Rumor [View article]
    Rob, any time a news item appears that even hints of something having negative implications for Intel, you can bet that Ashraf will respond immediately with his whistling past the graveyard article disclaiming the validity of the news item. From time to time when I am bored and have nothing better to do I read an article of his to see what absurd rebuttal he has this time.
    Dec 13 01:09 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Now What's Wrong With The REITs? [View article]
    Brad, it will be more fun if it helps you make some money
    Nov 11 11:37 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are You A REIT Timer Or A REIT Investor? [View article]
    The stock market is what it is so when it comes to being a participant in the market, I am the equivalent of one judge among many at a beauty contest. Instead of trying to pick the contestant who I think is the most beautiful among all of the entrants, I try to pick the contestant who the other judges will choose as the winner. John Maynard Keynes got his comeuppance in the stock market, made the beauty contest observation which I in effect quoted, vowed that he would never buy stocks again, borrowed money from family and friends, turned to the foreign exchange market, and made a fortune. I’m no John Maynard Keynes but I did learn a lot from and about him while pursuing a degree in economics. A participant in the market who relies on fundamental analysis alone to select his stocks is like an unbiased judge who actually votes for the most beautiful contestant. In a perfect world the judge’s virtuous behavior would be rewarded. But ours is not a perfect world. I was a “virtuous judge” type when I started working as a securities analyst more than 50 years ago. But like Keynes, I got religion so now I do what I do when I worship at the altar of Mr. Market. I am first and foremost a technician. You are a fundamentalist. No problem. That’s why they make vanilla and chocolate ice cream. If I had to choose between a good piece of technical analysis and a good piece of fundamental analysis when making an investment decision, I would choose the former. But to the extent possible I try to use both with about a 70-30 technical bias. This works for me and you should do what works for you.

    I tend to buy stocks on their fundamentals and sell them on their technical.
    Jul 16 08:53 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What's Right With The REITs [View article]
    Brad, I saw your picture with Donald Trump. You really ought to associate with a better class of people.
    Jul 4 09:19 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Who's Really Ignoring 47% Of Americans Today? [View article]
    Norm T,

    In a perfect world the things you lament about would not happen. But we do not live in a perfect world. Your comments were exactly what caused Ralph Waldo Emerson to write his brillant essay on politics. In it (and I largely quote) he wrote that a democracy has two constituencies: people and property. People require laws that favor equality while property wants laws favoring the owners over the owing. Too much weight in the laws favoring property permits the rich to encroach upon the poor and keep them poor. The rich are not really concerned with money. No they want power. When that happens the laws and the behavior of politicians will be changed one way or another because sooner or later the people will rebel. What is going on in Congress is not a scramble for pelf, but a struggle for power.
    Jan 13 01:36 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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