Comments on Thomas Wagner's articles RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.com/author/thomas-wagner/articles http://seekingalpha.com/article/135748-spes-the-next-financial-crisis-buzz-word?source=feed#comment-498729 498729 Mon, 11 May 2009 08:48:48 -0400 Cash would seem to be the best investment against the final push lower in the energy,Base metals, precious metals and AGs in the next leg down in the global stock market averages? At another lower valuation the acquisition of any and all commodity/energy themes with yield would seem to be the way forward. How about the TMV?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/135748-spes-the-next-financial-crisis-buzz-word?source=feed#comment-492823 492823 Wed, 06 May 2009 18:07:26 -0400 Help! I've been rubbed! : )

Geof:
Ah, I see what you mean now.
In more ordinary circumstances, I would expect a false recovery (in Autumn), unconfirmed by stocks. But my read of history makes me think that deflations move faster.
I don't think we'll get even one quarter positive this time.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/135748-spes-the-next-financial-crisis-buzz-word?source=feed#comment-492575 492575 Wed, 06 May 2009 15:43:09 -0400
People have not paid for their mortgages over a year in California, they are not being foreclosed and their loan defaults are pilling up....No wonder the foreclosure rates are not rising...they are being allowed to live for free and spend the unemployment money on food, utility and clothing .....hay the retail numbers are up lets cheer about that!

Unemployment numbers in California (the single largest economy in the world) is at 11% and many are unemployed over a year, they are not counted....

BofA and other major banks are insolvent....

The land of opportunity for all has turned into a land of opportunity for few….the land of freedom has turned to a land of sophisticated slavery….

Sorry for the pessimism, but you can not ignore the facts
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/135748-spes-the-next-financial-crisis-buzz-word?source=feed#comment-492246 492246 Wed, 06 May 2009 12:59:36 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/135748-spes-the-next-financial-crisis-buzz-word?source=feed#comment-492231 492231 Wed, 06 May 2009 12:54:44 -0400
The reality is that the government can't bailout everyone.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/135748-spes-the-next-financial-crisis-buzz-word?source=feed#comment-492229 492229 Geof > "Double dip" assumes an end to the first dip, which we have Not seen > yet. And in my opinion, won't.]]> Wed, 06 May 2009 12:52:50 -0400

On May 06 12:05 PM Jasper M wrote:

> Geof
> "Double dip" assumes an end to the first dip, which we have Not seen
> yet. And in my opinion, won't.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/135748-spes-the-next-financial-crisis-buzz-word?source=feed#comment-492177 492177 Wed, 06 May 2009 12:33:13 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/135748-spes-the-next-financial-crisis-buzz-word?source=feed#comment-492158 492158 Wed, 06 May 2009 12:25:38 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/135748-spes-the-next-financial-crisis-buzz-word?source=feed#comment-492105 492105 Wed, 06 May 2009 12:07:06 -0400 ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/135748-spes-the-next-financial-crisis-buzz-word?source=feed#comment-492103 492103 Wed, 06 May 2009 12:05:22 -0400 "Double dip" assumes an end to the first dip, which we have Not seen yet. And in my opinion, won't.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/135748-spes-the-next-financial-crisis-buzz-word?source=feed#comment-492064 492064 Wed, 06 May 2009 11:51:11 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/135748-spes-the-next-financial-crisis-buzz-word?source=feed#comment-491947 491947 Wed, 06 May 2009 11:03:42 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/98399-inflation-deflation-and-the-u-s-china-relationship?source=feed#comment-444695 444695 Sun, 29 Mar 2009 23:58:38 -0400
I see the military growing bigger and stronger, reaching further around the globe. I am depressed with the US and World economy and can trust only in my faith in God. No one anywhere is smart enough to fix this mess and there is not enough money anywhere in the world to replace what we lost at 40:1 lending and inflating of asset values all over the world.

I would appreciate your insight into the condition of China's commercial real estate. Are loans based on a reasonable valuation premise or power of the borrower? Are banks as stressed as they are everywhere else in the world?

Thany you Thomas for your article.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/98399-inflation-deflation-and-the-u-s-china-relationship?source=feed#comment-289988 289988 Fri, 24 Oct 2008 20:06:01 -0400
I think readers should understand that I have spent the last 7 years traveling to mainland china, Ive visited 37 cities with a focus on central and western china. So unlike most analyst that base there conclusions on public data sources, my conclusion are the product of 7 years of collecting my own data. Ive been on the ground and kicked the tires, traveled to countless factory floors, trade shows and local pubs. Ive also met with more than my share of crooked municipal govt representatives, expats, and Chinese Shylock's. I was in the middle of the SARS epidemic and fought my way out of a contruction worker protest. In short Ive seen the good the bad and the ugly in China. Furthermore I believe Im begining to understand the Chinese mindset having lived in china with my Chinese wife and relatives

The first two respondent's raise very valid issues. Mainly that SAFE must continue the sterilization US dollars as long as they have a trade surplus with the US. Similarly, the Chinese treasury cannot immediately divest itself from dollar denominated assets. Secondly, communism has generally been a very poor allocator of capital. While also imperfect capitalism is a far better allocator albeit with the unenviable byproduct of volatility.

However, I would submit that China is not a true communist country and the US is not a purely capitalist country . In my next article i will fully address how china's currency regime has supported a virtual one way flow of capital while avoiding the adjustments that free market equilibrium models normal exhibit. Ill also look at the some of the policies I expect to see the Chinese to employ as it becomes more apparant that the US is headed into a very long period of recession. I will also address how the quantitative easing by the US fed and massive increase in US treasury debt are furthering these huge imbalances in the global equilibrium model.

\Very simply the US govt is running out of options and is now engaging in poorly thought out politically driven actions that may in fact change the America way of life for a very long time .

In the meantime, keep the comments coming as I will attempt to answer everyone who takes the time to post.

Thanks
Thomas E Wagner CFP
planneronline.com

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/98399-inflation-deflation-and-the-u-s-china-relationship?source=feed#comment-275186 275186 Mon, 06 Oct 2008 19:16:15 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/98399-inflation-deflation-and-the-u-s-china-relationship?source=feed#comment-275067 275067 Mon, 06 Oct 2008 16:36:55 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/98399-inflation-deflation-and-the-u-s-china-relationship?source=feed#comment-275066 275066 Mon, 06 Oct 2008 16:36:02 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/98399-inflation-deflation-and-the-u-s-china-relationship?source=feed#comment-275007 275007 Mon, 06 Oct 2008 15:43:51 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/98399-inflation-deflation-and-the-u-s-china-relationship?source=feed#comment-274909 274909 Mon, 06 Oct 2008 14:02:07 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/98399-inflation-deflation-and-the-u-s-china-relationship?source=feed#comment-274861 274861 Mon, 06 Oct 2008 13:31:13 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/98399-inflation-deflation-and-the-u-s-china-relationship?source=feed#comment-274772 274772 Mon, 06 Oct 2008 11:57:12 -0400
Everyone seems to assume that they will sell those dollars for another currency when they might just as easily spend it on supplies like oil, steel, copper, concrete, etc.

They might continue taking $US in trade, but there's no reason for them to keep piling them up in the vault.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/98399-inflation-deflation-and-the-u-s-china-relationship?source=feed#comment-274704 274704 Mon, 06 Oct 2008 11:15:23 -0400 www.greenfaucet.com/bl...
good luck]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/98399-inflation-deflation-and-the-u-s-china-relationship?source=feed#comment-274686 274686 Mon, 06 Oct 2008 11:00:52 -0400
China is way behind in infrastructure construction and environmental protection. I can assure you that every road, bridge, and rail will go somewhere. Increase in infrastructure construction is one of a few choices they have.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/98399-inflation-deflation-and-the-u-s-china-relationship?source=feed#comment-274575 274575 Mon, 06 Oct 2008 09:27:27 -0400 In short order, the correction will be inevitable. Don't fall for their "don't panic" BS.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/98399-inflation-deflation-and-the-u-s-china-relationship?source=feed#comment-274494 274494 Mon, 06 Oct 2008 07:24:24 -0400 But lets not be under any illusion, the USA is not falling behind on payments. How can they, when all they need to do is print more USD.

China has no choice but to carry on business as usual.
The question is not whther the USA will pay them back, but what the dollar will be worth when they pay them back. Something that they hold full responsibility for as a result of their currency regime. These were the terms of the agreement.

In terms of consumption, impossible....
The Chinese will take 20-30 years to reach a high level of consumption and they won't be buying chinese made goods. Ask any Chinese person if it easier to sell to foreigners or Chinese and see what there answer is. The next generation maybe...not this one.

Also the consumption trends of the past will stay in the past.
People are hitting the harsh reality that wasting money daily buying stuff they dont need is the wrong thing to do.

In short the golden age of easy Chinese growth is finished, now every penny of GDP that China generates will be far far harder than it has ever been. Large economies take a long time to mature. China has certaintly got to second base, but very far away from home run status.

I also have a thought for everyone.....

What is structually different from what the USA has done over the past 10-20 years when compared to Europe, parts of Asia, UK etc.
Everyone seems to believe that the US caused the contagion. When the reality is their system was just the first to blow up.

Every aspect of society is leveraged up very seriously. Not just the banks. Most people's personal balance sheets are highly leveraged.
This delevarging of business/personal finances has just changed the rules.

Business as we know it has just changed dramatically. It will a few years for people to realise.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/98399-inflation-deflation-and-the-u-s-china-relationship?source=feed#comment-274307 274307 Sun, 05 Oct 2008 21:15:24 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/98399-inflation-deflation-and-the-u-s-china-relationship?source=feed#comment-274303 274303 Sun, 05 Oct 2008 21:09:39 -0400
stock up on your gold and silver. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/98399-inflation-deflation-and-the-u-s-china-relationship?source=feed#comment-274215 274215 Sun, 05 Oct 2008 18:09:21 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/98399-inflation-deflation-and-the-u-s-china-relationship?source=feed#comment-274165 274165 Sun, 05 Oct 2008 16:23:48 -0400
For myself speaking I never understood that the Chinese did not pull the plug in the Spring of 2004.

Yet the Chinese folks did not do this and so the troubles only grew bigger and bigger.

__________

From the statistical point of view it is nice to observe that China needs about 24 million new jobs every year or about 2 million new jobs a months.

For the USA these numbers vary from author to author but the USA needs about 100 to 150 thousand new jobs to keep up with demographic growth.

In this light you must view the latest NFP release:

A decline of 159 thousand means a damage of about 300 thousand...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/98399-inflation-deflation-and-the-u-s-china-relationship?source=feed#comment-274117 274117 Sun, 05 Oct 2008 15:08:35 -0400