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Thomas Wagner

 
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  • Coastway Bancorp: Don't Buy Into This Bank Conversion [View article]
    BTW I'm sure that the reason this article was removed from public view was so that it could be covered by the Pro user agreement.
    Sep 25 11:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Coastway Bancorp: Don't Buy Into This Bank Conversion [View article]
    Check your facts. This article was published on 1/22 and stock fell from 10.80 to
    10.04. While you and this author were misrepresenting facts the insiders have been steadily buying and so have the institutions. Price is the ultimate b/s detector. Hopefully the Rhode Island securities regulators and the SEC will look into your comments.

    http://bit.ly/1sZOKPF

    http://yhoo.it/1sZONe8
    Sep 25 11:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Coastway Bancorp: Don't Buy Into This Bank Conversion [View article]
    I think everyone who sold based on this article should be asking some questions as several hedge funds took positions right as this article came out. Stock is now 10 % higher at 11.00
    Sep 24 01:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ECA Marcellus Trust I - Still An Expensive Natural Gas Pure Play [View article]
    My numbers indicate that the original reserve estimate is wrong. Which is why I have taken issue with each and every article and analysis that uses this simplistic time value of money approach to valuation.
    Apr 30 11:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ECA Marcellus Trust I - Still An Expensive Natural Gas Pure Play [View article]
    Daniel:
    I think you may be missing my point. Your using a PV 10 based on a proven reserve number established by the engineer prior to drilling. Now that we have drilled wells and an established production curve the reserve estimate can be recomputed or imputed by looking at the existing production and the actual or experience production curve. Have you dont this math or are simply using the initial reserve estimate?
    Apr 25 12:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ECA Marcellus Trust I - Still An Expensive Natural Gas Pure Play [View article]
    Daniel

    You can also go to :http://bit.ly/RmCcRO and look up ECT production by well. Take a look at the wells that they drilled in 2006-2008 and you will see that production drops off about 40% -50% in the first three years then its a pretty steady decline thereafter still in the -7% range but should drop off to about -3.5% which means were on track to produce more product than the PV-10 analysis your valuation model relies on. Plus and at the end of the trust life unit owners should get 45% of the proceeds of the well sale right ???
    Apr 22 09:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ECA Marcellus Trust I: A Forecast Of Future Distributions [View article]
    Last well was drilled in 9/2011 so were about 3 years out and the curve has flattened to a drop off of about 7% per year. Im expecting 2014 1Q to come in at about 1,623,000 MCF with an avg price of $4.50 and $400,000 Quarter in trust expenses your looking at about a .39 2014 1Q distribution. Production curve should avg -3.5% per year over next 16 years. Now the question is do you expect NG to rise by more than 3.5% per year over the next ten years ? If so you have an increasing payment not a decreasing payment as your curve suggest. Oh and by the way unit owners get 45% of the sale price of the wells thereafter when gas should be back to its normal $7-$9 MCF.
    Mar 19 11:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ECA Marcellus Trust I: A Forecast Of Future Distributions [View article]
    You can also go to :http://bit.ly/RmCcRO and look up ECT production by well. Take a look at the wells that they drilled in 2006-2008 and you will see that production drops off about 40% -50% in the first three years then its a pretty steady decline thereafter. So the above curve simply does not fit the actual well data.
    Mar 19 08:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ECA Marcellus Trust I: A Forecast Of Future Distributions [View article]
    Your beating a dead horse. Why don't look at the annual reports since inception and calculate the volume variance of natural gas produced. Then take a look at the price variance and tell us all what you find. When you do, I think you will understand what I have been saying. BTW the "current well information" is not what the engineer used to issue his original report, he used a theoretical curve out of a text book. The curve used in this article is " based on a forecast of future production". Who's forecast? A microsoft excell power curve that forecast termination of all production prior to 2020? As I have stated before there are wells that are still producing after 50 years.
    Mar 19 04:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ECA Marcellus Trust I: A Forecast Of Future Distributions [View article]
    MBA investor has been using his articles to short the stock. Perhaps you are doing the same. Regardless, that game is over. What you are seeing in the propane market will happen in the NG market as more LNG facilities come on line. 5 years from now you will be looking an NG shortages as the majority of our supplies are shipped overseas to Japan and China. Nothing like a good short squeeze. With a little luck we should see exports to Europe as Russian production falls.  I should further add that those looking to profit from the comming move in NG should use ECT as part of a larger trading strategy. One that combines ECT high cash flow with an investment in a NG company with large reserves selling at a discount.
    Mar 14 08:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ECA Marcellus Trust I: A Forecast Of Future Distributions [View article]
    I agree which makes PV-10 as well as all of the other valuation techniques this author and others like MBA value investor use meaningless. They are simple restatements of a failed investment valuation model. I've humored these guys since they are creating periodic panic sell offs and great buying opportunities for the astute trader. IMO these articles are also being used to support short positions in these stocks that are covered each month before the distribution is announced. Now that the tide has turned on NG prices we should see these manipulators exit the short side and the units return to fair value.
    Mar 7 03:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ECA Marcellus Trust I: A Forecast Of Future Distributions [View article]
    Patrick:

    PV-10 is a weak attempt at YTM. Trying to value these trusts like a bond is ridiculous. That is why the astute trader can capitalize on the difficulty in valuation.
    Feb 8 02:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ECA Marcellus Trust I: A Forecast Of Future Distributions [View article]
    I would also like to add that none of the articles on ECT valuation that have been posted take any forward looking pricing into account. Most of the Author's like MBA value investor simply regurgitate the overly simplistic PV-10 math that the SEC requires. Not particularly impressive or useful and certainly not what a real trader would consider.
    Feb 7 12:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ECA Marcellus Trust I: A Forecast Of Future Distributions [View article]
    supply vs demand = price basic economics. Less wells means higher residual prices not a difficult concept.
    Feb 7 12:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ECA Marcellus Trust I: A Forecast Of Future Distributions [View article]
    Patrick:

    Like housing, all gas is local. If what you say was true gas in China would not be $12.00 while gas at the HH is $5.00.
    Feb 5 10:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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