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Thomas Wagner

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  • ECA Marcellus Trust I: A Forecast Of Future Distributions [View article]
    Last well was drilled in 9/2011 so were about 3 years out and the curve has flattened to a drop off of about 7% per year. Im expecting 2014 1Q to come in at about 1,623,000 MCF with an avg price of $4.50 and $400,000 Quarter in trust expenses your looking at about a .39 2014 1Q distribution. Production curve should avg -3.5% per year over next 16 years. Now the question is do you expect NG to rise by more than 3.5% per year over the next ten years ? If so you have an increasing payment not a decreasing payment as your curve suggest. Oh and by the way unit owners get 45% of the sale price of the wells thereafter when gas should be back to its normal $7-$9 MCF.
    Mar 19 11:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ECA Marcellus Trust I: A Forecast Of Future Distributions [View article]
    You can also go to :http://bit.ly/RmCcRO and look up ECT production by well. Take a look at the wells that they drilled in 2006-2008 and you will see that production drops off about 40% -50% in the first three years then its a pretty steady decline thereafter. So the above curve simply does not fit the actual well data.
    Mar 19 08:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ECA Marcellus Trust I: A Forecast Of Future Distributions [View article]
    Your beating a dead horse. Why don't look at the annual reports since inception and calculate the volume variance of natural gas produced. Then take a look at the price variance and tell us all what you find. When you do, I think you will understand what I have been saying. BTW the "current well information" is not what the engineer used to issue his original report, he used a theoretical curve out of a text book. The curve used in this article is " based on a forecast of future production". Who's forecast? A microsoft excell power curve that forecast termination of all production prior to 2020? As I have stated before there are wells that are still producing after 50 years.
    Mar 19 04:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ECA Marcellus Trust I: A Forecast Of Future Distributions [View article]
    MBA investor has been using his articles to short the stock. Perhaps you are doing the same. Regardless, that game is over. What you are seeing in the propane market will happen in the NG market as more LNG facilities come on line. 5 years from now you will be looking an NG shortages as the majority of our supplies are shipped overseas to Japan and China. Nothing like a good short squeeze. With a little luck we should see exports to Europe as Russian production falls.  I should further add that those looking to profit from the comming move in NG should use ECT as part of a larger trading strategy. One that combines ECT high cash flow with an investment in a NG company with large reserves selling at a discount.
    Mar 14 08:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ECA Marcellus Trust I: A Forecast Of Future Distributions [View article]
    I agree which makes PV-10 as well as all of the other valuation techniques this author and others like MBA value investor use meaningless. They are simple restatements of a failed investment valuation model. I've humored these guys since they are creating periodic panic sell offs and great buying opportunities for the astute trader. IMO these articles are also being used to support short positions in these stocks that are covered each month before the distribution is announced. Now that the tide has turned on NG prices we should see these manipulators exit the short side and the units return to fair value.
    Mar 7 03:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ECA Marcellus Trust I: A Forecast Of Future Distributions [View article]
    Patrick:

    PV-10 is a weak attempt at YTM. Trying to value these trusts like a bond is ridiculous. That is why the astute trader can capitalize on the difficulty in valuation.
    Feb 8 02:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ECA Marcellus Trust I: A Forecast Of Future Distributions [View article]
    I would also like to add that none of the articles on ECT valuation that have been posted take any forward looking pricing into account. Most of the Author's like MBA value investor simply regurgitate the overly simplistic PV-10 math that the SEC requires. Not particularly impressive or useful and certainly not what a real trader would consider.
    Feb 7 12:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ECA Marcellus Trust I: A Forecast Of Future Distributions [View article]
    supply vs demand = price basic economics. Less wells means higher residual prices not a difficult concept.
    Feb 7 12:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ECA Marcellus Trust I: A Forecast Of Future Distributions [View article]
    Patrick:

    Like housing, all gas is local. If what you say was true gas in China would not be $12.00 while gas at the HH is $5.00.
    Feb 5 10:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ECA Marcellus Trust I: A Forecast Of Future Distributions [View article]
    Patrick

    Fewer new wells means higher gas prices and increased terminal values of the trusts reserves. The "land value" has nothing to do with it as these trusts do not own the land, they own the drilling rights.
    Feb 4 09:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Coastway Bancorp: Don't Buy Into This Bank Conversion [View article]
    I have SNL but historical is different depending on time period you look at.
    Feb 3 02:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Coastway Bancorp: Don't Buy Into This Bank Conversion [View article]
    DJAG, Thank you for your reply. Im interested in you comments. However, i'm finding it hard to very your stats. Where did you come up with 65% probability of an acquisition 3 years after conversion. I would appreciate a citation to your raw data.
    Feb 3 01:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Transocean: 5% Yield And Good Growth Ahead [View article]
    On the monthly and weekly chart I see a rising trend line. 12/11 low of 38.89, 6/12 low of 39.00. Last 5 trading days have been week but were in an area of very low valuation. Good cash flow to support dividend and a low P/S ratio as compared to its competitors. I also like activist position in stock. As always this is my opinion and not investment advice. Please contact qualified counsel prior to acting on any information that I post.
    Feb 3 12:02 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Coastway Bancorp: Don't Buy Into This Bank Conversion [View article]
    Assuming your correct, which I do not believe, CWAY book value should be 14.25 X .90 = 12.82 in a year Buying now at 10.45 will theoretically yield a 23% return in under a year. As you should be aware the probability of CWAY buying back stock is far greater than PEOP getting sold. Now your point is????
    Feb 3 11:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Coastway Bancorp: Don't Buy Into This Bank Conversion [View article]
    From Newport's recent 10Q

    "For the six months ended June 30, 2013, deposit balances decreased by $8.6 million, or 3.0%. The decrease in deposits occurred in NOW/Demand accounts (a decrease of $2.9 million, or 2.2%), money market accounts (a decrease of $3.5 million, or 7.8%) and time deposit accounts (a decrease of $2.4 million, or 3.2%), partially offset by a slight increase in savings accounts (an increase of $149,000, or 0.4%). As interest rates continue to be at an all-time low, customers are placing their deposits with alternative resources, earning higher interest yields."

    Coastway's deposit base should be more stable due to its former operation as a credit union. It also looks like Newport had a history of high credit losses. Accordingly I do not find you book value comparison convincing.
    Jan 30 03:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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