Thomas Wagner

ETF Billion Dollar Club Gets Smaller: May 2009

I suspect that the FED's plunge protection team is also keenly aware of the above. Take a look at the IYR/SRS and SKF on a day like today with the market down 140pts and interest rates rising on the long curve neither SRS or SKF are showing any upside movement. Now who do you think may be in buying today to support these?????. I think uncle ben and company have fiqured out they can short circute the shorts by taking the opposite side of there leverage trading vehicles

Nasdaq 100 Bounces Nicely Off Its 50-DMA

My NDX 100 Chart from prophet.net has the NDX100 50 day moving average at 1276.00

The 20 day simple moving average is apox 1372.61. What am i missing ????????

New York Fed's Model Predicts End of Recession in 2009

The model relies on the theory that a positive sloped yield curve, one where long term rates are higher than short term is predicting or imputing an inflation rate. I think one must adjust the model to a relative one that takes in to account the relative rise and or fall at various points on the yield curve in relation to one another. Plotting the relative change of short term vs long term rates over time would probably yield a different prediction. This time around short term rates plunged as investors across the yield curve ran for the cover of short term liquid T-bills. Overall the entire yield curve moved down with the exception of 20 Yr plus rates. I think the next shoe to drop will be in the long term agency market as this is heavily populated by foreign investors. In short this time the model is being driven by extream deflationary forces that have not been fully considered.

It's 1974 for the U.S., but 1929 for China

Fran; I find your interpleading somewhat unusual. I was trying to give Mr. Cooper every opportunity to present the foundation for his research. As stated in my comment, I have been and continue to be in direct contact with many associates in China. So my research is based on first hand direct knowledge not recycled research or reliance on Chinese state published figures. I would like to know if Mr. Cooper, or anyone else has some quantifiable research that could give us all a better picture of what is going on in china. As for my position at "Baruch" I ran the fiancial programs and CFP program at there CAPS division. I also trained a large part of Bank Of New York and UBS private banking staff while running my practice which included several months a year in China. I also have a very large family in China since my wife is Chinese. Any hard evidence on what in fact is going on in china is always welcome.

It's 1974 for the U.S., but 1929 for China

Hello Peter; I am a fellow blogger on this site. I have spent a great deal of time in china, mostly in Chengdu Sichuan. I have developed contacts in 37 cities in china and have frequent contact with them. There have been bankrupt companies in Guangzhou particularly in the toy and low end fashion industries, however the rest of the economy seems to be pretty vibrant. Can you provide us with some source material or references about your observations about what is going on in china ????. Do you have contacts within china or is your article based on second hand information?? In short the best argument would be to disclose you sources and your outstanding trading postions if any
Thanks
Tom Wagner CFP
Quantitative Advisors Inc
planneronline.com