Tick Talk

Consumer Discretionary Sector is Going Down

WeeklyTA: Yeah, the 200-day SMA is the old stand-by and a good reference point. The fib time series for this issue in the intermediate/long term prognosticates a holding period through June of 2010. Thanks for the question. I'll address that in future articles.

Consumer Discretionary Sector is Going Down

jdmiller: I like the report. In fact, I was sold that same bill of goods from my Alma Mater. All in all, I'll bet that most of us like to think that there is order in economics. However, I have yet to see national money matters follow any such continuum. Our leaders are different, the populace is different, our global influence/susceptibili... is different. While there is the adage that those who do not learn from history are apt to repeat it; there is no guarantee that those who understand history won't make bigger mistakes. Oh, if business schools are so smart, why don't they publish a handbook for avoiding the ups and down? In summary, backtesting is 20/20, but successful fronttesting (just made that word up) belongs to those who comprehend past, present and future.

Consumer Discretionary Sector is Going Down

sbernard: Great points. I'm nodding in agreement and saying, "yep, he gets it."

Consumer Discretionary Sector is Going Down

Jake: Be cool. I tried to keep the article short and sweet in hopes that anyone wanting more details could review the ten-year chart and click the link to the report at bea.gov.

Consumer Discretionary Sector is Going Down

couldashoulda: You sound like a shorter-term trader. That is awesome. I'll include S/T analysis on the next go-round. Thanks for bringing that up!

Consumer Discretionary Sector is Going Down

Alan: Thanks for the question. Quick clarification: The word used in the article was not trend, it was support. Former resistance from 1999 - early 2003 was broken earlier this year, but now that you mention the trend, I'm seeing short term lower lows and lower highs. The 50% fib retracement you hope for is possible, but seems improbable as the shrugging double top in 2007 was confirmed and consecutive retracements appear to be in order. Regarding dominoes and timing, as this is my first article with SeekingAlpha, I'm sorry that a history of my coverage of this issue is not available. I've been bearish this sector since October 06 (I have the losses to prove it). :-) So actually, and somewhat sadly (for me), it was the market that was slow to react to what I was seeing. Stick around, I think you'll find that my analysis agrees with yours more often than not.