TickerSense - Seeking Alpha 'TickerSense' Tag RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.com/author/tickersense The Great Volume Expansion http://seekingalpha.com/article/172552-the-great-volume-expansion?source=feed 172552 US market volume has been expanding enormously since 2005. There has been a lot of scuttlebutt this year regarding a lack of volume, usually referring to NYSE trading because of its availability. The chart below shows NYSE floor volume as reported by the exchange in red (this is the same number you would find on WSJ.com or any other data provider). As shown, NYSE volume is largely unchanged since 2000 because there are actually four key stock exchanges in the US: the New York Stock Exchange, the NASDAQ, the NYSE Arca, and the FINRA ADF.

By digging deeper and looking at total volume for NYSE issues, we find that there is significantly more trading than many people realize. To calculate total volume, shown below in green, we added shares traded on all US exchanges for each NYSE listed stock, and then added all of the stocks' volumes for a given day. Using this methodology we find that on 11/6/09 total volume for NYSE issues was actually 4.89 billion shares versus NYSE volume of 1.29 billion shares.

]]> Tue, 10 Nov 2009 13:29:45 -0500 TickerSense US market volume has been expanding enormously since 2005. There has been a lot of scuttlebutt this year regarding a lack of volume, usually referring to NYSE trading because of its availability. The chart below shows NYSE floor volume as reported by the exchange in red (this is the same number you would find on WSJ.com or any other data provider). As shown, NYSE volume is largely unchanged since 2000 because there are actually four key stock exchanges in the US: the New York Stock Exchange, the NASDAQ, the NYSE Arca, and the FINRA ADF.

By digging deeper and looking at total volume for NYSE issues, we find that there is significantly more trading than many people realize. To calculate total volume, shown below in green, we added shares traded on all US exchanges for each NYSE listed stock, and then added all of the stocks' volumes for a given day. Using this methodology we find that on 11/6/09 total volume for NYSE issues was actually 4.89 billion shares versus NYSE volume of 1.29 billion shares.


Complete Story »]]> NDAQ NYX TickerSense 10% Unemployment: Good or Bad for the Market? http://seekingalpha.com/article/172153-10-unemployment-good-or-bad-for-the-market?source=feed 172153 As reported Friday morning, the unemployment rate in the US rose above 10% for the first time since 1982. As shown below, this is by far the fastest rise since continuous data begin in 1948. It is interesting to note that from 9/30/1982, when the rate first rose above 10%, to 7/29/1983, when unemployment first fell below 10%, the S&P 500 gained 34.99%.

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]]> Mon, 09 Nov 2009 05:04:23 -0500 TickerSense As reported Friday morning, the unemployment rate in the US rose above 10% for the first time since 1982. As shown below, this is by far the fastest rise since continuous data begin in 1948. It is interesting to note that from 9/30/1982, when the rate first rose above 10%, to 7/29/1983, when unemployment first fell below 10%, the S&P 500 gained 34.99%.

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Complete Story »]]> TickerSense Mutual Fund Returns: Don't Follow the Herd http://seekingalpha.com/article/170663-mutual-fund-returns-don-t-follow-the-herd?source=feed 170663 From 1962 through the third quarter of 2009 the S&P 500 had an average annual return of 8.71%; the weighted average US mutual fund was up 1.18%. (By weighted we mean adjusted for the funds’ sizes. A $100mln fund that is up 50% should not offset the $5bln fund that is down 50%. The mutual fund business will then tell you that the average fund is flat, but while not wrong, that is misleading.)

Investing in the biggest, best, and fanciest funds did not pay off.

]]> Mon, 02 Nov 2009 16:28:07 -0500 TickerSense From 1962 through the third quarter of 2009 the S&P 500 had an average annual return of 8.71%; the weighted average US mutual fund was up 1.18%. (By weighted we mean adjusted for the funds’ sizes. A $100mln fund that is up 50% should not offset the $5bln fund that is down 50%. The mutual fund business will then tell you that the average fund is flat, but while not wrong, that is misleading.)

Investing in the biggest, best, and fanciest funds did not pay off.


Complete Story »]]> IVV SPY TickerSense Q3 Earnings: Best in a Long Time http://seekingalpha.com/article/169589-q3-earnings-best-in-a-long-time?source=feed 169589 The last few days have everyone wondering whether the rally can continue. Is the market's move supported by the fundamentals, and can the economy recover fast enough to drive further earnings growth?

Looking strictly at reported earnings so far this quarter, S&P 500 companies continue to report significantly better than expected results. In the previous quarter the average difference between EPS estimates and reported EPS was $0.08; this quarter it is $0.09. Furthermore, the ratio of companies that beat earnings to those that missed is 6.25 (150 beats vs. 24 misses).

]]> Wed, 28 Oct 2009 15:31:55 -0400 TickerSense The last few days have everyone wondering whether the rally can continue. Is the market's move supported by the fundamentals, and can the economy recover fast enough to drive further earnings growth?

Looking strictly at reported earnings so far this quarter, S&P 500 companies continue to report significantly better than expected results. In the previous quarter the average difference between EPS estimates and reported EPS was $0.08; this quarter it is $0.09. Furthermore, the ratio of companies that beat earnings to those that missed is 6.25 (150 beats vs. 24 misses).


Complete Story »]]> IVV SPY TickerSense 10 Year Return on the S&P 500 Since 1955 http://seekingalpha.com/article/166221-10-year-return-on-the-s-p-500-since-1955?source=feed 166221 Below we highlight the simple rolling ten year return on the S&P 500 since 1955 (note that this is simple return, not total return). The shaded areas on the chart are periods of negative return. The great bull market lasting from 1982 to 2000 brought this calculation has high as 400% before turning negative in October of 2008. With this market up 59% from the bottom, many investors may feel as though they missed these gains and need to wait for another entry point. Depending on your time horizon, that is not necessarily the case.

If we look at the last period when ten year returns were negative, we find that the ten year return going forward is an average of 163%. In other words, on a days when the ten year return on the S&P was negative (this is roughly 640 trading days) the average return going forward ten years was 163% and the minimum return was 78%. Anyone with a time horizon of at least ten years should stay in stocks.

]]> Tue, 13 Oct 2009 09:28:47 -0400 TickerSense Below we highlight the simple rolling ten year return on the S&P 500 since 1955 (note that this is simple return, not total return). The shaded areas on the chart are periods of negative return. The great bull market lasting from 1982 to 2000 brought this calculation has high as 400% before turning negative in October of 2008. With this market up 59% from the bottom, many investors may feel as though they missed these gains and need to wait for another entry point. Depending on your time horizon, that is not necessarily the case.

If we look at the last period when ten year returns were negative, we find that the ten year return going forward is an average of 163%. In other words, on a days when the ten year return on the S&P was negative (this is roughly 640 trading days) the average return going forward ten years was 163% and the minimum return was 78%. Anyone with a time horizon of at least ten years should stay in stocks.


Complete Story »]]> IVV SPY TickerSense Biggest Money Makers and Losers Since 3/9/09 http://seekingalpha.com/article/165514-biggest-money-makers-and-losers-since-3-9-09?source=feed 165514 A lot has been said about the biggest percent gainers since the March 9th low, but what about the biggest money makers. Let's face it, when banks were at risk of government abduction and the market was blind sided by the January and February declines, it was tough to pull the trigger on big purchases of BAC at $3 or Citi below $1.

Below we look at the market from a different view, if you had bought 1,000 shares of any S&P 500 stock what would have been the big winner? It turns out that a purchase of 1,000 shares of Google (GOOG) at the 3/9 close has returned $226,650 through the 10/7 close; far and away the biggest winner. There are only seven S&P stocks that are down since the market bottomed.

]]> Thu, 08 Oct 2009 09:52:58 -0400 TickerSense A lot has been said about the biggest percent gainers since the March 9th low, but what about the biggest money makers. Let's face it, when banks were at risk of government abduction and the market was blind sided by the January and February declines, it was tough to pull the trigger on big purchases of BAC at $3 or Citi below $1.

Below we look at the market from a different view, if you had bought 1,000 shares of any S&P 500 stock what would have been the big winner? It turns out that a purchase of 1,000 shares of Google (GOOG) at the 3/9 close has returned $226,650 through the 10/7 close; far and away the biggest winner. There are only seven S&P stocks that are down since the market bottomed.


Complete Story »]]> AAPL AZO BEN CEPH CME DF DNR FDO FLS GOOG GS ISRG KEY MA PBCT PCP PCS STJ WPO TickerSense Has the Rig Count Finally Bottomed? http://seekingalpha.com/article/165394-has-the-rig-count-finally-bottomed?source=feed 165394 Baker Hughes (BHI) released the results of their international rig count this afternoon which finally showed a month over month gain. Both US and foreign oil and gas rigs in operation peaked in 2008 and declined 55% from peak to trough in the US. The US count bottomed in June of this year and has gained consistently since (figures released weekly, next release is tomorrow).

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]]> Wed, 07 Oct 2009 17:59:11 -0400 TickerSense Baker Hughes (BHI) released the results of their international rig count this afternoon which finally showed a month over month gain. Both US and foreign oil and gas rigs in operation peaked in 2008 and declined 55% from peak to trough in the US. The US count bottomed in June of this year and has gained consistently since (figures released weekly, next release is tomorrow).

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Complete Story »]]> BHI PXJ TickerSense What Do Stocks Really Return? http://seekingalpha.com/article/165110-what-do-stocks-really-return?source=feed 165110 The stock market's comeback in 2009 has probably reinforced the old adage, "the market always comes back". That view has received considerable currency from Jeremy Siegel's book, Stocks for The Long Run, which details the performance of the US market since 1802, and contends that over any long period stocks will outperform.

Recent efforts by us and others have at least called that into question (especially when adjusted for risk), while a WSJ column questioned the availability and veracity of data.

]]> Tue, 06 Oct 2009 13:49:12 -0400 TickerSense The stock market's comeback in 2009 has probably reinforced the old adage, "the market always comes back". That view has received considerable currency from Jeremy Siegel's book, Stocks for The Long Run, which details the performance of the US market since 1802, and contends that over any long period stocks will outperform.

Recent efforts by us and others have at least called that into question (especially when adjusted for risk), while a WSJ column questioned the availability and veracity of data.


Complete Story »]]> TickerSense Tuesday's Economic Reports: Key Market Movers http://seekingalpha.com/article/159393-tuesday-s-economic-reports-key-market-movers?source=feed 159393 Today at 10:00am there are four important economic indicators due for release. The ISM Manufacturing index will most likely be in focus following similar reports from China and Europe, and more importantly its current estimate of 50.5 indicates the first growth since 1/31/08. Looking at previous market reactions we would note that in the six times Pending Home Sales were reported better than expected the S&P rallied each time, while a better than expected ISM number does not always result in a gain.

]]> Tue, 01 Sep 2009 10:44:50 -0400 TickerSense Today at 10:00am there are four important economic indicators due for release. The ISM Manufacturing index will most likely be in focus following similar reports from China and Europe, and more importantly its current estimate of 50.5 indicates the first growth since 1/31/08. Looking at previous market reactions we would note that in the six times Pending Home Sales were reported better than expected the S&P rallied each time, while a better than expected ISM number does not always result in a gain.


Complete Story »]]> TickerSense Earnings Delivering So Far http://seekingalpha.com/article/152372-earnings-delivering-so-far?source=feed 152372 The market had a nice run-up ahead of earnings season and was driven by some preliminary positive responses (GS and INTC come to mind, followed not long afterwards by CAT).

Below we have extracted a chart from a premium bulletin sent out several days ago. By slicing the earnings reports and summarizing them we can get a better picture of the broad success large cap stocks have posted this quarter. The red line highlights the ratio of companies that beat their earnings estimate versus those that missed (companies reporting in-line are excluded). At 5.35 this ratio is the highest since the second quarter of 2004.

]]> Thu, 30 Jul 2009 03:28:07 -0400 TickerSense The market had a nice run-up ahead of earnings season and was driven by some preliminary positive responses (GS and INTC come to mind, followed not long afterwards by CAT).

Below we have extracted a chart from a premium bulletin sent out several days ago. By slicing the earnings reports and summarizing them we can get a better picture of the broad success large cap stocks have posted this quarter. The red line highlights the ratio of companies that beat their earnings estimate versus those that missed (companies reporting in-line are excluded). At 5.35 this ratio is the highest since the second quarter of 2004.


Complete Story »]]> DIA GS IVV SPY TickerSense Market Leaders of the July Rally http://seekingalpha.com/article/151481-market-leaders-of-the-july-rally?source=feed 151481 Below we highlight some of the market's leaders during the two week long rally. These stocks may not have moved the market the most, but of the S&P 500 members that have outperformed the index the top twenty weights are shown below. Not suprisingly, IBM tops the group but there are several other names that might not be expected.


Stock leaders

]]> Mon, 27 Jul 2009 06:18:13 -0400 TickerSense Below we highlight some of the market's leaders during the two week long rally. These stocks may not have moved the market the most, but of the S&P 500 members that have outperformed the index the top twenty weights are shown below. Not suprisingly, IBM tops the group but there are several other names that might not be expected.


Stock leaders


Complete Story »]]> AAPL AXP COP CSCO CVX DIS EXC GS HD HP IBM INTC JPM MMM MON MRK OXY PFE SLB USB TickerSense July Rally Has Strategists Raising Targets http://seekingalpha.com/article/151472-july-rally-has-strategists-raising-targets?source=feed 151472 Four prominent financial institutions have either raised their S&P 500 year end targets or EPS estimates last week. Below we detail those forecasts and where the consensus for the market. Currently the average price target is 1007 or a further 3% rally through the end of the year (firm names are available to our mini-institutional clients).

]]> Mon, 27 Jul 2009 05:45:17 -0400 TickerSense Four prominent financial institutions have either raised their S&P 500 year end targets or EPS estimates last week. Below we detail those forecasts and where the consensus for the market. Currently the average price target is 1007 or a further 3% rally through the end of the year (firm names are available to our mini-institutional clients).


Complete Story »]]> IVV SPY TickerSense Think Twice Before Jumping on Lower Microsoft http://seekingalpha.com/article/151223-think-twice-before-jumping-on-lower-microsoft?source=feed 151223 Microsoft (MSFT) is down on earnings this morning and might been seen as buying opportunity. The history however does not support this conclusion. Since 2000 Microsoft has opened down significantly (in excess of 5%) a total of 13 times, in 9 of those instances the stock continued lower throughout the trading day. Also shown below is the performance over the next week and several months. The stock does not usually rally back significantly and over the next 20 trading days it is down on average versus the equivalent of today's opening.


Msft opening lower

]]> Fri, 24 Jul 2009 14:04:00 -0400 TickerSense Microsoft (MSFT) is down on earnings this morning and might been seen as buying opportunity. The history however does not support this conclusion. Since 2000 Microsoft has opened down significantly (in excess of 5%) a total of 13 times, in 9 of those instances the stock continued lower throughout the trading day. Also shown below is the performance over the next week and several months. The stock does not usually rally back significantly and over the next 20 trading days it is down on average versus the equivalent of today's opening.


Msft opening lower


Complete Story »]]> MSFT TickerSense Dow 30: Technical vs. Fundamental Parameters http://seekingalpha.com/article/150531-dow-30-technical-vs-fundamental-parameters?source=feed 150531 Below we highlight an old report with a new twist. In the past we have shown just the technical side with our overbought/oversold indicator; now we have added information regarding the fundamentals of each stock. Below earnings estimates for the current fiscal year of each stock are shown. IBM, HPQ and MCD currently have the highest fundamental scores; while MSFT presents an interesting split with a high technical score and a low fundamental score. Most stocks in the Dow are currently overbought.

Click here for a higher quality PDF of the images below. A description is included at the end.

]]> Wed, 22 Jul 2009 13:07:12 -0400 TickerSense Below we highlight an old report with a new twist. In the past we have shown just the technical side with our overbought/oversold indicator; now we have added information regarding the fundamentals of each stock. Below earnings estimates for the current fiscal year of each stock are shown. IBM, HPQ and MCD currently have the highest fundamental scores; while MSFT presents an interesting split with a high technical score and a low fundamental score. Most stocks in the Dow are currently overbought.

Click here for a higher quality PDF of the images below. A description is included at the end.


Complete Story »]]> AA AIG AXP BA BAC CAT CSCO CVX DD DIA DIS GE HD HPQ IBM INTC JNJ JPM KO MCD MMM MRK MSFT PFE PG T TRV UTX VZ WMT XOM TickerSense Don't Expect Big Things from Apple Today http://seekingalpha.com/article/150475-don-t-expect-big-things-from-apple-today?source=feed 150475 After reporting earnings and issuing the expected weaker guidance, Apple (AAPL) is up $5.65 versus yesterday's close. Below we look at other positive responses to an earnings report from Apple and show that on average the stock is flat during open market trading. This says nothing about the longer term prospects for the company, but traders looking to make a quick buck probably won't find it in Apple today as the stock has already made its move.

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]]> Wed, 22 Jul 2009 09:45:29 -0400 TickerSense After reporting earnings and issuing the expected weaker guidance, Apple (AAPL) is up $5.65 versus yesterday's close. Below we look at other positive responses to an earnings report from Apple and show that on average the stock is flat during open market trading. This says nothing about the longer term prospects for the company, but traders looking to make a quick buck probably won't find it in Apple today as the stock has already made its move.

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Complete Story »]]> AAPL TickerSense Is the Growth Correction Ending? http://seekingalpha.com/article/147699-is-the-growth-correction-ending?source=feed 147699 Since the middle of 2007 the S&P 500 Pure Growth index has clearly outperformed the same value index. Between the December 2008 high and the March 2009 low the growth stocks remained relatively stable (some even gained) while most value stocks declined to make a new low. Growth's relative strength increased significantly during that period and has since come back in line with the longer term trend.

Stocks that had declined the most were acquired with enthusiasm as confidence returned to the market, but now the value stocks have more than likely gotten ahead of themselves and we would expect the growth play to continue. (Note that in spite of today's 1.15% decline Google (GOOG) is up 88bps.)

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]]> Wed, 08 Jul 2009 15:04:08 -0400 TickerSense Since the middle of 2007 the S&P 500 Pure Growth index has clearly outperformed the same value index. Between the December 2008 high and the March 2009 low the growth stocks remained relatively stable (some even gained) while most value stocks declined to make a new low. Growth's relative strength increased significantly during that period and has since come back in line with the longer term trend.

Stocks that had declined the most were acquired with enthusiasm as confidence returned to the market, but now the value stocks have more than likely gotten ahead of themselves and we would expect the growth play to continue. (Note that in spite of today's 1.15% decline Google (GOOG) is up 88bps.)

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Complete Story »]]> IVE IVW TickerSense Monday's Market Movers http://seekingalpha.com/article/147310-monday-s-market-movers?source=feed 147310 Monday's trading saw a wide disconnect between defensive stocks and commodity stocks. The S&P 500's energy sector was down 1.16% while the consumer staples sector posted a 1.51% gain. In all, 280 stocks advanced and 218 declined. Below are the ten S&P sectors and their impact on the market; subscribers to Birinyi's mini-institutional service also receive details on the impact of top and bottom ten stocks in the index. For example, PG was responsible for 15.37% of the S&P's 2.3 point gain, while BAC's decline subtracted 0.45 index points.

]]> Tue, 07 Jul 2009 05:19:22 -0400 TickerSense Monday's trading saw a wide disconnect between defensive stocks and commodity stocks. The S&P 500's energy sector was down 1.16% while the consumer staples sector posted a 1.51% gain. In all, 280 stocks advanced and 218 declined. Below are the ten S&P sectors and their impact on the market; subscribers to Birinyi's mini-institutional service also receive details on the impact of top and bottom ten stocks in the index. For example, PG was responsible for 15.37% of the S&P's 2.3 point gain, while BAC's decline subtracted 0.45 index points.


Complete Story »]]> BAC IVV IYZ PG SPY XLB XLE XLF XLI XLK XLP XLU XLV XLY TickerSense Oil Remains Highly Correlated to the S&P 500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/146796-oil-remains-highly-correlated-to-the-s-p-500?source=feed 146796 On a rolling 200-day basis, oil is now more correlated to the S&P than any other time in the last twenty years. Below we picture the correlation of oil versus the S&P on both a 50-day and a 200-day basis. As shown, the correlation has been rising since mid-2008 and is at or near the high for both time periods. (1987 - 2007 for 50-day correlation is not pictured, previously the high was .46, currently it is .66).

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]]> Thu, 02 Jul 2009 15:23:16 -0400 TickerSense On a rolling 200-day basis, oil is now more correlated to the S&P than any other time in the last twenty years. Below we picture the correlation of oil versus the S&P on both a 50-day and a 200-day basis. As shown, the correlation has been rising since mid-2008 and is at or near the high for both time periods. (1987 - 2007 for 50-day correlation is not pictured, previously the high was .46, currently it is .66).

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Complete Story »]]> IVV OIL SPY USO TickerSense Crude Contracts Expiry Day http://seekingalpha.com/article/144606-crude-contracts-expiry-day?source=feed 144606 The last trade for the front month crude contract is today, and strange price fluctuations have often been cited as the contract nears closing. Today oil is down over $2. In the past this kind of change might have been explained by traders going long and being forced out of their trade so as to avoid taking delivery of the oil. If this was the case, we would expect to see the July futures as an outlier among the more forward contracts. Today this is not the case, as the table below shows that oil is down across the board.

]]> Mon, 22 Jun 2009 10:42:57 -0400 TickerSense The last trade for the front month crude contract is today, and strange price fluctuations have often been cited as the contract nears closing. Today oil is down over $2. In the past this kind of change might have been explained by traders going long and being forced out of their trade so as to avoid taking delivery of the oil. If this was the case, we would expect to see the July futures as an outlier among the more forward contracts. Today this is not the case, as the table below shows that oil is down across the board.


Complete Story »]]> DBO OIL USO TickerSense Have Earnings Expectations for the S&P 500 Finally Bottomed? http://seekingalpha.com/article/143064-have-earnings-expectations-for-the-s-p-500-finally-bottomed?source=feed 143064 Since September of 2008 we have seen 2009's YoY earnings expectations for the S&P 500 steadily decline. You may recall that for the first half of 2008 many analysts were expecting an earnings recovery, and thus forecasting 20 - 25% growth in '09. The severity of the crisis was obviously not understood, and as events unfolded earnings and economic estimates were likewise adjusted resulting in a 38.1% decline between 9/26/08 and 11/20/08.

Below we charted the progression of 2009 estimates since February of 2008. Ignoring the jump in early March (General Motors reported a wider than expected loss for Q4 08 on 2/26/09 thus decreasing the denominator), it appears on the surface that expectations are beginning to bottom and have actually seen a recent upward revision. We would however question the significance of these recent changes since General Motors was removed on 6/3/09. If estimates continue to rise they could provide a catalyst for the next leg up.

]]> Sun, 14 Jun 2009 13:42:35 -0400 TickerSense Since September of 2008 we have seen 2009's YoY earnings expectations for the S&P 500 steadily decline. You may recall that for the first half of 2008 many analysts were expecting an earnings recovery, and thus forecasting 20 - 25% growth in '09. The severity of the crisis was obviously not understood, and as events unfolded earnings and economic estimates were likewise adjusted resulting in a 38.1% decline between 9/26/08 and 11/20/08.

Below we charted the progression of 2009 estimates since February of 2008. Ignoring the jump in early March (General Motors reported a wider than expected loss for Q4 08 on 2/26/09 thus decreasing the denominator), it appears on the surface that expectations are beginning to bottom and have actually seen a recent upward revision. We would however question the significance of these recent changes since General Motors was removed on 6/3/09. If estimates continue to rise they could provide a catalyst for the next leg up.


Complete Story »]]> IVV SPY TickerSense