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  • Top Tech Analyst Talks Up The Role Of Apple, Facebook, Google, And Microsoft In The Coming TV Revolution

    Without the benefit of the recent news and rumors, Next Inning Editor Paul McWilliams wrote about the concept of Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) merging the worlds of computing and TV about eight years ago.

    However, with the introduction of the iPad and Apple TV, Apple has largely fulfilled what he envisioned then. McWilliams first suggested considering Apple as a good speculative investment in June 2003 at the split adjusted price of $9.85.

    As Apple moved above the $600 level for the first time, McWilliams advised Next Inning readers to consider diversifying away from Apple and locking in the 6,000% profit. In his latest report, McWilliams advises investors as to whether they should consider trimming stakes further on any move above $600.

    In NextInning.com's new report on the future of TV, available free to trial subscribers, goes into detail on Apple's role in the coming television revolution.

    The report also includes an in depth discussion of the roles that may be played by Facebook (NASDAQ: FB), Google (NASDAQ: GOOG), Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT), and the supporting roles of companies like Sprint Nextel (NYSE: S), Akamai Technologies (NASDAQ: AKAM), Harmonic (NASDAQ: HLIT), Cisco Systems (NASDAQ: CSCO), and more.

    Here is just a tiny sample of what Editor Paul McWilliams wrote in his new report: "While Apple clearly has talents and assets it can leverage in its quest to broaden its reach into TV, it lacks unique content creation beyond what it might be able to get via its close relationship with Walt Disney Company (NYSE: DIS) and how that might extended to sources like ESPN. While Google most certainly has holes in its strategic fabric, its YouTube and Google Earth assets put it in a very unique content position..."

    The Next Inning model portfolio is up 242% since its inception versus 41% for the S&P 500. Click here to start your free 21-day trial membership to Next Inning Technology Research and get McWilliams' in depth reports, earnings previews, and real-time trade alerts.

    Tags: AAPL, FB, GOOG, MSFT, S, DIS, AKAM, CSCO, technology
    Jun 05 10:19 AM | Link | Comment!
  • Atmel, SanDisk, Micron: What The Analysts Are Missing And How Investors Can Profit

    Digital semiconductors encompass an expansive and diverse group of technology companies, and offer special challenges to even the most astute analysts and investors. Next Inning Technology Research Editor Paul McWilliams whose Next Inning model portfolio has returned nearly 300% since inception helps his readers cut through the mountain of data and misinformation generated by the technology press and analysts, and provides direct analysis of which stocks should be watched the most carefully for maximum profit generation.

    In Next Inning's latest State of Tech report, McWilliams provides extensive analysis of nine semiconductor companies specializing in NAND Flash and DRAM memory, touch screen control, microprocessors, and programmable logic, part of a universe of about 65 total companies in which he provides quarterly in-depth analysis. McWilliams alerts readers to industry and technology trends that even the most well known of market watchers either overlook or do not fully understand.

    Most Wall Street observers currently are highly enamored with Atmel based on the strength of its touch screen technology, but McWilliams warns readers those pundits are ignoring mid- and long-term competitive threats to Atmel, and haven't crunched the numbers closely enough to understand how dependent Atmel is on that singular revenue stream. While the current management team did a great job beginning about five years ago in rebuilding the company, "somewhere along the way they took a wrong turn, and don't realize they are now speeding down the wrong road."

    Although Atmel has the potential to grow its touch screen business by about 20% this year, that growth rate is a trickle compared to last year, and longer-term trends are not favorable, McWilliams says. Atmel's touch screen technology position will be under increasing attack from direct competitors, competitive technology, and integration into processor-based System on a Chip (SoC) designs. Next Inning free trial subscribers will have immediate access to this report, which includes McWilliams' comments on where he believes the stock his headed next.

    McWilliams has long made the observation that memory manufacturers are part of highly commoditized technology sector where long-term strategic investing is rarely, if ever, a good idea. Being able to play against the tide, selling when most observers are accumulating, and buying when many believe business models are hopelessly damaged. This is particularly true for Micron whose revenues and earnings are so unpredictable the company itself tends to shy away from specific guidance and asks analysts and investors to "roll their own" numbers.

    "While I see no responsible way to forecast earnings for a semiconductor memory company, short-term swing trades of Micron can be quite profitable," McWilliams said. He has stepped his readers through a series swing trades regarding Micron in the past. His latest report, available free to trial subscribers, includes a set up for a new potential swing trade in Micron.

    SanDisk is unique in that it is the only pure-play NAND Flash memory manufacturer. And while NAND Flash holds some of the same characteristics as others memory types, which can make long-term valuation modeling virtually impossible, McWilliams sees technology and demand trends currently favoring NAND Flash and SanDisk. Not only does NAND Flash have a "viable runway" to grow as it increasingly replaces hard disk drives (HDDs) with growth largely only constrained by capacity, its traditional markets are also poised for significant growth, McWilliams observes. McWilliams' new report includes a new price target for SanDisk that may represent significant upside for investors.

    Apr 11 11:03 AM | Link | Comment!
  • Big Guns: The Top Moves of Buffett, Paulson, Soros, Tepper, Gates and More

     By Max Magee

    SEC regulations require that institutional investors of a certain size disclose their holdings on a quarterly basis.  By rule, these institutions have 45 days from the end of each quarter to provide snapshot of their holdings at the end of that quarter.  With the Q1 2011 deadline now passed, investors can now get a glimpse into the strategies of some of the world’s greatest investors.

    Tickerspy processes and displays the holdings from the SEC filings of thousands of “Pro” investors every quarter, giving investors insight into the moves of the likes of Warren Buffett, George Soros, John Paulson, and others.  The following report will highlight ten of these investors and some of their biggest moves and positions.

    Warren Buffett – Berkshire Hathaway - Though Q1 ended with unflattering headlines for Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A, BRK.B), there was much less action evident when it came to the firm’s equity portfolio.

    The drama for Berkshire started as the quarter neared its close. Soon after the firm announced a $9 billion buyout of chemical firm Lubrizol (LZ), David Sokol, a top executive at Berkshire and one of the leading contenders to replace Buffett suddenly resigned as it came to light that he had purchased shares of Lubrizoil ahead of the buyout deal. The events have clouded the big open question of Buffett’s successor.

    Evidently, there may have been several other moves in the Berkshire portfolio, but, as he has sometimes been known to do, Buffett sought a waiver allowing him to keep them confidential. Such waivers allow big investors to build positions without making headlines that would drive up the price.

    Selected Notable Moves and Positions

    MasterCard

    MA

    $54.4M | 216.0K shares - New Holding

    ConocoPhillips

    COP

    $2.3B | 29.1M shares - decrease of 8.0K shares

    Coca-Cola

    KO

    $13.3B | 200.0M shares - No Change

    Wells Fargo

    WFC

    $10.9B | 342.6M shares - No Change

    American Express

    AXP

    $6.9B | 151.6M shares - No Change

    Visit tickerspy for more Berkshire Hathaway holdings

     

     

     

     

    Ken Heebner – Capital Growth Management - After a fall back to earth in 2008 and 2009, Ken Heebner’s once high-flying CGM Focus Fund (CGMFX) returned to surer footing in 2010, beating the market slightly, up 17% versus 13% for the S&P 500. So far in 2011, the Focus Fund is down about 8%, while the S&P 500 is up about 6%. While investors may be longing for a return to the world-beating 80% gains the fund put up in 2007, Heebner has undoubtedly been adept at picking out market trends in the past.

    Selected Notable Moves and Positions

    ASML Holdings

    ASML

    $216.7M | 4.9M shares - New Holding

    Lam Research

    LRCX

    $198.6M | 3.5M shares - New Holding

    United Continental

    UAL

    $194.3M | 8.4M shares - New Holding

    Delta Air Lines

    DAL

    $155.8M | 15.9M shares - New Holding

    Western Digital

    WDC

    $134.2M | 3.6M shares - New Holding

    Visit tickerspy for more Capital Growth Management holdings

     

    George Soros – Soros Fund Management - Soros made his name as a hedge fund pioneer, running one of the first such funds, and he is still a frequent commenter on the markets. Though he has turned much of the control of Soros Fund Management over to his two sons, Robert and Jonathan, the firm’s moves are still closely watched.

    Selected Notable Moves and Positions

    Adecoagro

    AGRO

    $366.1M | 27.2M shares - New Holding

    Visteon

    VC

    $133.4M | 2.1M shares - New Holding

    Motorola Solutions

    MSI

    $200.2M | 4.5M shares - increase of 3.8M shares

    Dendreon

    DNDN

    $174.9M | 4.7M shares - increase of 473.0K shares

    Citigroup

    C

    $129.9M | 2.9M shares - increase of 1.9M shares

    Visit tickerspy for more Soros Fund Management holdings

     

    John Paulson – Paulson & Co - Paulson was among the few high-profile investment managers to post consecutive annual gains during the market’s 2008 slide and subsequent rebound in 2009. After a rocky start to 2010, reports indicated that Paulson & Co.’s flagship fund closed out the year strong.

    Selected Notable Moves and Positions

    Hewlett-Packard

    HPQ

    $1.0B | 25.0M shares - New Holding

    Lubrizol

    LZ

    $803.8M | 6.0M shares - New Holding

    Weyerhaeuser

    WY

    $779.8M | 31.7M shares - New Holding

    Alpha Natural Resources

    ANR

    $712.4M | 12.0M shares - New Holding

    Anglogold

    AU

    $2.0B | 41.0M shares - increase of 97.5K shares

    Visit tickerspy for more Paulson & Co holdings

    T. Boone Pickens - BP Capital Management - Texas oil billionaire turned wind energy and natural gas proponent T. Boone Pickens was adding to many of his top positions during Q1, while opening new bets in select energy players.

    At the beginning of 2011, Pickens predicted that oil will trade over $100 a barrel this year with prices averaging between $110 and $120, resulting in gasoline prices of $4 a gallon, predictions that have been largely on target, though oil has pulled back in recent weeks. Pickens has also been in the news lately touting an energy bill designed to increase incentives for vehicles that run on natural gas, thus reducing U.S. dependence on foreign oil.

    Selected Notable Moves and Positions

    Apache

    APA

    $21.6M | 165.0K shares - New Holding

    Canadian Natural Resource

    CNQ

    $15.7M | 317.5K shares - New Holding

    BP

    BP

    $48.2M | 1.1M shares - increase of 89.0K shares

    Noble

    NE

    $35.6M | 781.0K shares - increase of 439.0K shares

    EOG Resources

    EOG

    $25.5M | 215.0K shares - increase of 20.0K shares

    Visit tickerspy for more BP Capital Management holdings

     

    Bruce Berkowitz - Fairholme Capital Management - Fairholme Fund (FAIRX) manager Bruce Berkowitz is far from the average mutual fund chief. Morningstar named Berkowitz the U.S. stock manager of the decade last year. This year, Berkowitz has been embroiled in a battle over long-time holding St. Joe (NYSE:JOE). Berkowitz pushed a proxy battle at the land development firm and took over as chairman in March.

    Selected Notable Moves and Positions

    Brookfield Asset Management

    BAM

    $892.6M | 27.5M shares - New Holding

    Cisco Systems

    CSCO

    $614.3M | 35.8M shares - New Holding

    Sears Holdings

    SHLD

    $1.3B | 16.3M shares - increase of 1.4M shares

    Bank of America

    BAC

    $1.2B | 92.6M shares - increase of 509.2K shares

    Goldman Sachs

    GS

    $1.1B | 6.7M shares - increase of 813.4K shares

    Visit tickerspy for more Fairholme Capital Management holdings

     

     

     

     

     

    Mohnish Pabrai – Pabrai Funds - Closely watched hedge fund manager Mohnish Pabrai is known to maintain a concentrated portfolio and to model his investment style after Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A, BRK.B) CEO Warren Buffett. Pabrai’s longest running fund has returned over 18% annually on average since its inception in 2000, and his funds were all up around 5% in the first quarter of 2011.

    In Pabrai’s April letter to investors, he explained why his funds have stopped accepting new assets and investors. The hedge fund manager said he’d prefer not to “keep mindlessly adding cash when I have a severe paucity of good investment ideas.” Basically, stocks aren’t cheap right now, in his view, so he’s reluctant to put money to work.

    Selected Notable Moves and Positions

    Potash

    POT

    $58.6M | 994.9K shares - decrease of 9.0K shares

    Cresud

    CRESY

    $23.3M | 1.3M shares - decrease of 85.1K shares

    Terex

    TEX

    $12.8M | 345.2K shares - decrease of 185.6K shares

    Air Transport Services Group

    ATSG

    $12.0M | 1.4M shares - decrease of 713.6K shares

    Posco

    PKX

    $7.3M | 64.3K shares - decrease of 149.0K shares

    Visit tickerspy for more Pabrai Funds holdings

     

    Bill Gates - The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation - The Foundation counts Gates’ friend and fellow billionaire Warren Buffett among its trustees. Buffett made headlines in 2006 by pledging $30 billion in Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A, BRK.B) stock to the Gates’ charitable efforts. While Gates’ money is managed by his investment officer, Michael Larson, the Microsoft founder’s proximity to Buffett leads many to believe that he has access to the thinking of the world’s most famous investor. Gates also sits on the Berkshire Hathaway board of directors.

    Selected Notable Moves and Positions

    Coca-Cola Femsa

    KOF

    $478.5M | 6.2M shares - increase of 598.2K shares

    Caterpillar

    CAT

    $1.1B | 9.6M shares - No Change

    Coca-Cola

    KO

    $775.0M | 11.7M shares - No Change

    McDonald’s

    MCD

    $751.2M | 9.9M shares - No Change

    Waste Management

    WM

    $695.8M | 18.6M shares - No Change

    Visit tickerspy for more Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation holdings

     

     

     

     

    Seth Klarman – Baupost Group - In 2010, legendary Boston-based hedge fund manager Seth Klarman was a bearish voice among the bulls, noting that the government is “kicking problems down the road” with bailout plans and extended periods of low interest rates.

    More recently, Baupost, which manages $24 billion, set up an office in London to take advantage of the sovereign debt crisis occurring in Europe. Given Baupost’s impressive track record — according to a 2008 item in the Harvard Bulletin, Baupost had posted an annual compound return of 20% in the prior 26 years — investors are always interested in its latest disclosed equity holdings.

    Selected Notable Moves and Positions

    Allied Nevada Gold

    ANV

    $87.2M | 2.5M shares - New Holding

    PDL BioPharma

    PDLI

    $60.9M | 10.5M shares - increase of 4.9M shares

    AVEO Pharmaceuticals

    AVEO

    $47.0M | 3.5M shares - increase of 1.5M shares

    Enzon Pharmaceuticals

    ENZN

    $98.1M | 9.0M shares - decrease of 64.3K shares

    CapitalSource

    CSE

    $73.6M | 10.4M shares - decrease of 5.5M shares

    Visit tickerspy for more Baupost Group holdings

     

    David Tepper – Appaloosa Management - Billionaire David Tepper returned investors an astounding 132% net of fees in 2009 and 21% in 2010, and, as 2011 got underway, the fund manager remained bullish, with Tepper telling CNBC in January that he’s “cautious but optimistic” about equity markets and the economy. Given Tepper’s outlook, his recently disclosed end-of-Q1 equity holdings, which show a big move away from bank stocks, are in focus.

    Selected Notable Moves and Positions

    Hewlett-Packard

    HPQ

    $259.4M | 6.3M shares - increase of 487.6K shares

    Goodyear Tire & Rubber

    GT

    $228.4M | 15.2M shares - increase of 5.2M shares

    International Paper

    IP

    $173.2M | 5.7M shares - increase of 338.9K shares

    Macy’s

    M

    $162.8M | 6.7M shares - increase of 1.5M shares

    United Continental

    UAL

    $131.9M | 5.7M shares - increase of 1.9M shares

    Visit tickerspy for more Appaloosa Management holdings

      

    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.
    Jun 13 9:40 AM | Link | 1 Comment
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