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Tim Ayles

 
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  • The Law Of Yesterday [View article]
    RV,

    You make good points that have merit. For a portion of the portfolio, these types of strategies have their place. Have you seen the whale of this space, Good Harbor? They are down a TON this year. GHUAX is down almost 19% for the year. I just started buying that fund for clients. Why? Because I believe in the long term method and know that the current "unvolatile" market is a method crusher for these types of strategies. The long term results show that the process trumps performance in the short term: http://bit.ly/1qaDIW2

    I took a quick look at the strategies of the guys you recommended. At first glance, they are good strategies, but I am not sure of the logic behind them. One looks to have stunk since writing the strategy (Cliff Smith, I replicated it in ETF Replay and it goes straight down) which makes me wonder if it is curve fit. The results from 10 day/5 month are drastically and statistically different from 10 day/4 month for example. A strategy that has such different results from one input change is not very robust at all. That said, I have not given it enough time or thought and that might be an unfair statement.
    Oct 7 11:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Law Of Yesterday [View article]
    I would agree that the constant reminders of previous calls and the award winning paper can appear a bit over the top and bombastic. It is a hard balance between marketing, and self-promotion that is attractive vs distracting.
    Oct 6 10:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Law Of Yesterday [View article]
    I would disagree still I guess. The S&P 500 is an asset class, not a portfolio or strategy. ATACX, in my due diligence acts more like PRPFX (and has ourperformed it) which is a multi asset, absolute return, buy and hold strategy. That fund has been terrible the past few years during the relentless up market. Does it make sense to say that the Permanent Portfolio is worthless, broken, and a joke? http://bit.ly/Rsgoan Those results would argue against that short term thinking.

    The current environment has been making investors who care about diversification and risk look really stupid. When comments begin to be made that the S&P 500 is the bench mark for a diversified, risk adjusted portfolio, you know you are in a strange market. The permanent portfolio is now down this year, and down over the past two years. An investor would have been much better off owning just the S&P 500. Maybe that is all we ever need to do ever again?

    Pull up a chart of PRPFX vs. SPY since 01/01/2000 and you will quickly see that a myopic view focused on short term performance alone misses the fact that process trumps performance in the long run. PRPFX has outperformed by almost 3X, even though SPY has outperformed by almost 40% in the past 2 years.

    Long term perspective matters in the end.
    Oct 6 10:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Law Of Yesterday [View article]
    It's the same reason why you wouldn't stop investing in the S&P 500 if it happened to "lag" his fund by 40% when we get to a period of market volatility where his method will be back in sync. When we get a never ending market with shallow pullbacks and constant V market recovery moves, EVERY strategy that is not just long S&P 500 will look like a turd. If you feel like the last year of never ending up moves and VERY shallow corrections is the way of the future, then you are right...... long S&P 500 only is the way to go.
    Oct 6 12:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Law Of Yesterday [View article]
    sliman21,

    To compare his fund to the S&P 500 shows you are comparing apples and oranges. There are times when his fund has been 100% in long term Treasuries. Should a fund that is allocated that way be compared to SPY? I don't think so. ATACX is a fund that is designed for and owned for a reason.... and that reason is not comparing it to the S&P 500.
    Oct 3 08:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Hyper-Inflation Is a Low Probability Event [View article]
    4 years later...... and we are still waiting.....
    Sep 29 03:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Hyper-Inflation Is a Low Probability Event [View article]
    4 years later..... and it looks like I am still right. Yet, you can never be wrong..... because it is always just around the corner. "Just wait!" Right???
    Sep 29 03:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Maybe I'm Wrong - Justifying $2,000+ Gold [View article]
    Awesome!
    Jun 2 05:20 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This Low-Cost ETF Outperforms The S&P 500 And The Dow [View article]
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Jan 13 12:50 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • This Low-Cost ETF Outperforms The S&P 500 And The Dow [View article]
    The reason VTI beats the Dow and the S&P 500 is due to it having small and mid cap stocks as well. Pretty much any exposure to small/mid caps over time will outperform a large cap weighting index. RSP holds all 500 S&P 500 stocks, but the equal weighting makes it a mid-cap type ETF. Compare RSP to MDY, and you will see that correlation.
    Jan 12 05:51 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Understanding Why Austrian Economics Is Flawed [View article]
    MR is like the police investigator who sits back and is able to tell the difference between real money and counterfeit money. He just observes and defines what is real and what is not from the facts in front of him.

    Austrians are like the police investigator who goes a step too far, who doesn't really see the difference in counterfeit money, but wants to make the counterfeit money valid. Rather than just observe the facts, they try to force the impossible. They describe a system that is not actually in play (not real) and want to force it upon everyone and claim that it is valid (the way things should be). MR 1/ Austrian 0
    Sep 11 02:31 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • mREITs: Risk Vs. Reward And Dividend Sustainability [View article]
    NM.... this article refers to Darren as the source.
    Aug 13 12:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • mREITs: An Opportunity To Be Greedy When Others Are Fearful [View article]
    NM.... I figured it out. Seems the other article is referring to Darren as the source.
    Aug 13 12:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • mREITs: An Opportunity To Be Greedy When Others Are Fearful [View article]
    So the chart in this article is the same chart as here:

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    Would be interesting to know what the true source of the buy/sell recommendations is.
    Aug 13 11:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • mREITs: Risk Vs. Reward And Dividend Sustainability [View article]
    So this is the same chart as this article:

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    Be interesting to know what the real source of the buy/sell recommendations is.
    Aug 13 11:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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