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Tim Ayles

 
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  • Why Hyper-Inflation Is a Low Probability Event [View article]
    4 years later...... and we are still waiting.....
    Sep 29 03:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Hyper-Inflation Is a Low Probability Event [View article]
    4 years later..... and it looks like I am still right. Yet, you can never be wrong..... because it is always just around the corner. "Just wait!" Right???
    Sep 29 03:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Maybe I'm Wrong - Justifying $2,000+ Gold [View article]
    Awesome!
    Jun 2 05:20 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This Low-Cost ETF Outperforms The S&P 500 And The Dow [View article]
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Jan 13 12:50 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • This Low-Cost ETF Outperforms The S&P 500 And The Dow [View article]
    The reason VTI beats the Dow and the S&P 500 is due to it having small and mid cap stocks as well. Pretty much any exposure to small/mid caps over time will outperform a large cap weighting index. RSP holds all 500 S&P 500 stocks, but the equal weighting makes it a mid-cap type ETF. Compare RSP to MDY, and you will see that correlation.
    Jan 12 05:51 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Understanding Why Austrian Economics Is Flawed [View article]
    MR is like the police investigator who sits back and is able to tell the difference between real money and counterfeit money. He just observes and defines what is real and what is not from the facts in front of him.

    Austrians are like the police investigator who goes a step too far, who doesn't really see the difference in counterfeit money, but wants to make the counterfeit money valid. Rather than just observe the facts, they try to force the impossible. They describe a system that is not actually in play (not real) and want to force it upon everyone and claim that it is valid (the way things should be). MR 1/ Austrian 0
    Sep 11 02:31 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • mREITs: Risk Vs. Reward And Dividend Sustainability [View article]
    NM.... this article refers to Darren as the source.
    Aug 13 12:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • mREITs: An Opportunity To Be Greedy When Others Are Fearful [View article]
    NM.... I figured it out. Seems the other article is referring to Darren as the source.
    Aug 13 12:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • mREITs: An Opportunity To Be Greedy When Others Are Fearful [View article]
    So the chart in this article is the same chart as here:

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    Would be interesting to know what the true source of the buy/sell recommendations is.
    Aug 13 11:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • mREITs: Risk Vs. Reward And Dividend Sustainability [View article]
    So this is the same chart as this article:

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    Be interesting to know what the real source of the buy/sell recommendations is.
    Aug 13 11:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Strongest ETF Sectors [View article]
    MexCom,

    From a fixed income standpoint, we are showing PFF, HYG, and MBB as the places to park cash for a fixed income allocation. We would concur that for the moment, high yield is in risk on mode still.
    Jul 12 12:31 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Strongest ETF Sectors [View article]
    I wish I could divulge, but we plan to start a mutual fund around the specifics of the strategy. We will continue to report in the form of generalities in these articles and disclose which sectors one should consider based on this model.
    Jul 12 12:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Strongest ETF Sectors [View article]
    Russell - Indeed the long term results make one want to pay attention to what the model is saying. While I would never advocate investing in only 6 ETF's, what you will notice is risk on and risk off characteristics coming through the changes. As stated in the article, with the model removing 4 defensive ETF's in favor of what is usually considered high beta sectors, the model is giving us a message that now is the time to put your pedal to the metal in the short term.
    Jul 11 06:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Inflation Hoax [View article]
    Not only that Robert...... the QE can actually be deflationary. That should blow Ryan's mind. Assuming you have $1 million in US Treasuries earning $30,000 per year..... the Fed gives you $1 million in cash earning $0 and takes the bond from you. That means there is $30,000 less in income circulating around the country. In order for the investor to replace that income, they have to buy a bond that pays less income..... or take more risk. Most people do not change their risk profiles. The 90 year old retiree isn't going to go and buy Netflix stock now that their bond is gone. You do see stocks and other assets rise while the economy struggles with disinflation though. The question is, are assets over priced on a relative and discounted cash flow basis? The answer is no. As income continues to become scarce through QE programs and a slowing economy, the premium people are willing to pay for the income remaining in the system is high. This is why we are seeing high yield at all time extremes, in the face of gold prices crashing. One pays income, the other does not. IF and when QE ends, you will see bonds ramp and yields fall, just as they have the past two times. Gold? We will see it under $1000.
    Jun 28 11:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Inflation Hoax [View article]
    Oh my. The bond bubble redux. Aye Yi Yi.

    I wrote about that silly idea over three years ago. I know.... just wait! Right?

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    That article will just about refute all of the flaming arrows you think you have in this debate. They are tired.

    And I LOVE this scary quote:

    "A major depression is inevitable for America because decades of growing debt-financing by consumers, businesses, and state and (especially) federal governments have undermined the health of the economy, giving the appearance of wealth when in fact there is poverty. The enormous private and public debts bring the law of compound interest into play, and it takes no great mathematician or economist to figure out that those who live beyond their means for too long must finally reach the point at which they not only cannot pay off their debts, they can't even pay the interest on them—or find anyone willing to lend enough to cover the interest."

    Larry Burkett...... from 1990!

    This was from my top read article ever:

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Jun 27 11:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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