Comments on Tim Duy's articles RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.com/author/tim-duy/articles http://seekingalpha.com/article/176820-cyclical-and-structural-dynamics-in-u-s-economic-activity?source=feed#comment-794260 794260 Mon, 07 Dec 2009 10:55:12 -0500
As the article shows, the only reason the unemployment rate was low in 2005 was because of declining labor participation and the credit bubble.

Here is a video by Sir James Goldsmith on Charlie Rose predicting what would happen with GATT (WTO) and globalization:

video.google.com/video...#

If all the private sector jobs are sent overseas, that means that the government must get bigger to take up the slack in the form of public sector jobs. In France half the jobs are now public sector (did not use to be so). Perhaps that is our future in the US unless we change course.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/176820-cyclical-and-structural-dynamics-in-u-s-economic-activity?source=feed#comment-793769 793769 Mon, 07 Dec 2009 07:05:24 -0500 My own view is that a very weak cyclical recovery has been produced by radically and likely fatally weakening the overall structure, in particular Government finances, with the hoped for financing of budget deficits in the future wholly dependent on a recovery of a strength which is simply not going to happen.
To name just one factor which has enough force to utterly blow cyclical recovery out of the water,
refinancing of commercial property in the US needs around $1,600 bn in the next five years:
www.ft.com/cms/s/0/815...

Cyclical factors may make some ripples, but structural factors are the tsunami.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/176820-cyclical-and-structural-dynamics-in-u-s-economic-activity?source=feed#comment-793639 793639 Mon, 07 Dec 2009 05:10:16 -0500
Manufacturing is down in November and Inventories are rising, not where you want to be right now.

Retail sales are LOWER than last year, 75% of retailers have missed their revenue goals.

US Debt is spiraling upward, along with the debt service payments on that debt. Yet the market for US debt is weakening. This is both a short term and a long term, and a really long term problem.

Foreclosures are increasing, and those who restructured mortgages under government stimulus programs, are now starting to default on the new terms.

I don't see where the recovery is? I don't see green shoots, only weeds.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/176282-bubbles-abroad-shouldn-t-prevent-the-fed-from-acting?source=feed#comment-789590 789590 Fri, 04 Dec 2009 00:03:11 -0500
The sea of liquidity is the product of the credit creation by commercial banks to finance the housing bubble. On one side of the balance sheet we have borrowers who took out trillions of dollars of mortgages. On the other side of the balance sheet we have the people who collected those trillions of dollars and now want to invest them in something.

The Fed has expanded its balance sheet by maybe $1.5 trillion, a number that is dwarfed by the megatrillions created and lent out by commercial banks. The Fed is not innocent, but it was commercial banks and not the central bank that created the vast bulk of the sea of liquidity.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/176282-bubbles-abroad-shouldn-t-prevent-the-fed-from-acting?source=feed#comment-788905 788905 Thu, 03 Dec 2009 15:08:02 -0500
Regulate housing, regulate oil, regulate natural gas, regulate fill-in-the-blank, the money that is created out of thin air will eventually find somewhere else to go. Regulators will always be one step behind, and regulations will always fail.

We need to look at the true cause of our problems if we hope to solve them.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/176282-bubbles-abroad-shouldn-t-prevent-the-fed-from-acting?source=feed#comment-788782 788782 Thu, 03 Dec 2009 13:42:12 -0500 Bubbles need money to push them up and then failures need money or 0% to survive. Dilution is our cancer. It pays for wars and all the Government extravaganza. Its much easier for unaccountable politician to have a central bank than face the taxpayer with the real bills. That is until the entire economy becomes a gigantic Argentina.

Here is an nice example.
www.lewrockwell.com/na...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/176282-bubbles-abroad-shouldn-t-prevent-the-fed-from-acting?source=feed#comment-788219 788219 I agree the Fed and policy makers could have done a better job regulating > CDS and CMO contracts, requiring minimum down payments, requiring > Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac from using government guarantees to run > themselves into bankruptcy, limiting leverage art brokerages to say > 30 to 1, etc. Ceretainly this would have stopped some of the market > frothiness and make our economy that much more robust from implosion. > > > The fact that they still haven't regulated in the aftermath shows > they don't care, are so beholden to bad business and their executives > they can't make rational policy decisions anymore, are completely > ignorant, our regulatory and policymaking is so broken nothing can > get done anymore, or all the above. > > Given that our regulatory and policy system is too broken or too > slow to achieve anything meaningful, we are left with trying to limit > bubbles by preventing the Federal Reserve from making their constant > catastrophic choices in fixing rate policy and from violating the > basic tenant of good monetary policy, that being don't monetize your > currency into oblivion with QE. > > In my view both paths towards preventing bubbles are broken. I would > be happy just barring the Federal Reserve from making terrible decisions > that cause them to start.]]> Thu, 03 Dec 2009 08:52:14 -0500

On Dec 03 06:56 AM Moon Kil Woong wrote:

> I agree the Fed and policy makers could have done a better job regulating
> CDS and CMO contracts, requiring minimum down payments, requiring
> Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac from using government guarantees to run
> themselves into bankruptcy, limiting leverage art brokerages to say
> 30 to 1, etc. Ceretainly this would have stopped some of the market
> frothiness and make our economy that much more robust from implosion.
>
>
> The fact that they still haven't regulated in the aftermath shows
> they don't care, are so beholden to bad business and their executives
> they can't make rational policy decisions anymore, are completely
> ignorant, our regulatory and policymaking is so broken nothing can
> get done anymore, or all the above.
>
> Given that our regulatory and policy system is too broken or too
> slow to achieve anything meaningful, we are left with trying to limit
> bubbles by preventing the Federal Reserve from making their constant
> catastrophic choices in fixing rate policy and from violating the
> basic tenant of good monetary policy, that being don't monetize your
> currency into oblivion with QE.
>
> In my view both paths towards preventing bubbles are broken. I would
> be happy just barring the Federal Reserve from making terrible decisions
> that cause them to start.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/176282-bubbles-abroad-shouldn-t-prevent-the-fed-from-acting?source=feed#comment-788206 788206 Thu, 03 Dec 2009 08:48:12 -0500
Looking at the way policies are being run at the Fed one can't help but get a feeling that the Titanic is sailing in uncharted waters and the captain has the wrong map but insists on charging full speed ahead. No wonder that the wiser/prudent passengers are already heading for lifeboats and lifejackets (i.e., hoarding gold and shorting dollars).]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/176282-bubbles-abroad-shouldn-t-prevent-the-fed-from-acting?source=feed#comment-788083 788083 Thu, 03 Dec 2009 07:06:28 -0500
Hmm, and those bubbles abroad are not going to come back and bite the US economy on the bum?

Excess liquidity created by QE is sloshing around the world like water in a holed ship - it could easily cause it to sink.
The US is not going to be immune to the consequences of the liquidity going to asset bubbles that it has and is doing so much to help create.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/176282-bubbles-abroad-shouldn-t-prevent-the-fed-from-acting?source=feed#comment-788056 788056 Thu, 03 Dec 2009 06:56:41 -0500
The fact that they still haven't regulated in the aftermath shows they don't care, are so beholden to bad business and their executives they can't make rational policy decisions anymore, are completely ignorant, our regulatory and policymaking is so broken nothing can get done anymore, or all the above.

Given that our regulatory and policy system is too broken or too slow to achieve anything meaningful, we are left with trying to limit bubbles by preventing the Federal Reserve from making their constant catastrophic choices in fixing rate policy and from violating the basic tenant of good monetary policy, that being don't monetize your currency into oblivion with QE.

In my view both paths towards preventing bubbles are broken. I would be happy just barring the Federal Reserve from making terrible decisions that cause them to start.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/175196-ahead-of-black-friday-has-consumer-confidence-been-restored?source=feed#comment-782112 782112 Sun, 29 Nov 2009 21:47:26 -0500
How about down 8% per person? More people were out, but spending down 8%. With the weaselly justification that Black Friday weekend is just 12% of overall holiday sales. I wouldn't be surprised if another 10% moved online...why get trampled at Wal-Mart when you can sit home in your bunny slippers...

beforeitsnews.com/stor...

Read it all.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/175196-ahead-of-black-friday-has-consumer-confidence-been-restored?source=feed#comment-781352 781352 Sun, 29 Nov 2009 09:08:14 -0500
The ONLY way to ultimately restore consumer confidence is to give the consumers jobs. Anything else is either placebo or patch, the effects of which will swiftly be forgotten. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/175196-ahead-of-black-friday-has-consumer-confidence-been-restored?source=feed#comment-780206 780206 2% ($2 trillion in credit lines cut), unemployment up (17.5% by some measures), salaries decreasing, taxes increasing, home values down. I can't see how retail sales could be up. But then again consumers are NOT rational animals.]]> Fri, 27 Nov 2009 21:28:27 -0500 2% ($2 trillion in credit lines cut), unemployment up (17.5% by some measures), salaries decreasing, taxes increasing, home values down. I can't see how retail sales could be up. But then again consumers are NOT rational animals.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/175196-ahead-of-black-friday-has-consumer-confidence-been-restored?source=feed#comment-780149 780149 Fri, 27 Nov 2009 20:57:52 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/175196-ahead-of-black-friday-has-consumer-confidence-been-restored?source=feed#comment-779887 779887 Fri, 27 Nov 2009 15:28:22 -0500
LOL, more like consumer DESPERATION.

Confusing a strong sales number today with a confident consumer would be a mistake. Low prices and reduced budgets will push more shoppers looking - no NEEDING - bargains than ever before. The expression on their collective faces will be of anger and fear.

Stay home, folks, and do your shopping on-line. Its worth your life to attempt to navigate the parking lots today. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/175196-ahead-of-black-friday-has-consumer-confidence-been-restored?source=feed#comment-779672 779672 Fri, 27 Nov 2009 11:44:03 -0500
I am interested in others thoughts outside of NY which is getting coverage from CNBC...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/175196-ahead-of-black-friday-has-consumer-confidence-been-restored?source=feed#comment-778336 778336 Thu, 26 Nov 2009 09:52:53 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/175196-ahead-of-black-friday-has-consumer-confidence-been-restored?source=feed#comment-778045 778045 Wed, 25 Nov 2009 23:30:13 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/175196-ahead-of-black-friday-has-consumer-confidence-been-restored?source=feed#comment-777491 777491 Wed, 25 Nov 2009 14:20:18 -0500
Oh yes, those poor underpaid analysts.

Black friday will probably be good. Value is the order of the day, and even vultures like me will have competition for deals. It is the high margin cool toy or electronic that is in trouble, not the 18 dollar microwave.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/175196-ahead-of-black-friday-has-consumer-confidence-been-restored?source=feed#comment-777443 777443 Wed, 25 Nov 2009 13:50:16 -0500
In 1982, at the start of the great consumption binge, Americans' debt to cash ratio was 20.90% to 25.14%.

In 1945, that ratio was 5.00% to 18.57%. Also in 1945, Federal Reserve Discount Rate was ~1.00%.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/175196-ahead-of-black-friday-has-consumer-confidence-been-restored?source=feed#comment-777336 777336 Wed, 25 Nov 2009 12:54:05 -0500 youtube.com/watch?v=u-...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/175196-ahead-of-black-friday-has-consumer-confidence-been-restored?source=feed#comment-777208 777208 Wed, 25 Nov 2009 11:39:42 -0500
BALONY! it is still falling and the quotes will focus on WalMarts same store sales which have been supported by down buying of a shrinking middle class. Lets not look at Macy's or the Federated chain. There will be disaster.

Spin for happiness, spin for joy, spin to keep the faltering public under control. Paper over the problems and dream, but don't commit to, a brighter tomorrow. They celebrate in the sun while the working man and family freeze in the dark.


Wall Street has stolen our future but has been given a pass and then bailed out by you, me and 'Ol Aunt Minnie .
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/175196-ahead-of-black-friday-has-consumer-confidence-been-restored?source=feed#comment-777193 777193 Tim, you are absolutely incorrect in your prescription for "helping" > the economy. Stimulus--whether fiscal or monetary--will only cause > the economy long-term harm. The stimulus causes further malinvestments--just > like the real estate bubble was a malinvestment created by idiotic > fiscal and monetary policies--that require liquidation further down > the line. > > The problem is that the politicians don't want to preside over liquidation > of debts because they fear a deep depression and--what's more--they > fear the ire of their banking patrons who have bad loans on their > books. What do the pols do? Stimulate. How do they do it? Print, > borrow, and spend. The problem is that one can only print, borrow, > and spend so much before confidence in one's fiat currency begins > to wane. The confidence in the US dollar has already begun to slide, > as evidenced by dollar "sales" by central banks, reduction in long > term debt purchases by overseas lenders, and the continuing increase > in the price of gold.]]> Wed, 25 Nov 2009 11:26:57 -0500

On Nov 25 09:30 AM Carlos Lam wrote:

> Tim, you are absolutely incorrect in your prescription for "helping"
> the economy. Stimulus--whether fiscal or monetary--will only cause
> the economy long-term harm. The stimulus causes further malinvestments--just
> like the real estate bubble was a malinvestment created by idiotic
> fiscal and monetary policies--that require liquidation further down
> the line.
>
> The problem is that the politicians don't want to preside over liquidation
> of debts because they fear a deep depression and--what's more--they
> fear the ire of their banking patrons who have bad loans on their
> books. What do the pols do? Stimulate. How do they do it? Print,
> borrow, and spend. The problem is that one can only print, borrow,
> and spend so much before confidence in one's fiat currency begins
> to wane. The confidence in the US dollar has already begun to slide,
> as evidenced by dollar "sales" by central banks, reduction in long
> term debt purchases by overseas lenders, and the continuing increase
> in the price of gold.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/175196-ahead-of-black-friday-has-consumer-confidence-been-restored?source=feed#comment-777137 777137 Wed, 25 Nov 2009 10:52:47 -0500 ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/174653-the-fed-backed-itself-into-a-corner?source=feed#comment-777033 777033 Wed, 25 Nov 2009 09:56:10 -0500
Basically, mirroring the pasted comment "An independent central bank is crucial. Political control of monetary policy must inevitably lead to accelerating inflation and long-run economic instability. But at the moment, the American economy could use an increase in expected inflation. And a real threat to Fed independence would almost certainly deliver it, either because markets would anticipate increased political influence on monetary policy ever after, or because the Fed would seek to fend off pressure from Congress by easing further, which amounts to the same thing. But we don't actually want there to be a real threat to Fed independence, because that way uncontrolled inflation lies."]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/175196-ahead-of-black-friday-has-consumer-confidence-been-restored?source=feed#comment-776977 776977 Wed, 25 Nov 2009 09:30:17 -0500
The problem is that the politicians don't want to preside over liquidation of debts because they fear a deep depression and--what's more--they fear the ire of their banking patrons who have bad loans on their books. What do the pols do? Stimulate. How do they do it? Print, borrow, and spend. The problem is that one can only print, borrow, and spend so much before confidence in one's fiat currency begins to wane. The confidence in the US dollar has already begun to slide, as evidenced by dollar "sales" by central banks, reduction in long term debt purchases by overseas lenders, and the continuing increase in the price of gold.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/175196-ahead-of-black-friday-has-consumer-confidence-been-restored?source=feed#comment-776637 776637 Wed, 25 Nov 2009 08:20:55 -0500
The sooner the powers that be come clean with the American people, the better. Take any model you want and use a scenario where 70-75 percent of your economy is based on consumer spending, then throw in home construction...

Guess what happens? First of all you drain all of your savings, next you abuse credit (bank or government provided credit), after that you'll start to sell off assets to continue your habit or pay down debts.

But, in the end, you will end up with nothing... A dysfunctional economy based on consumer spending and home contruction-sales is not sustainable. It can't work, won't work.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/175196-ahead-of-black-friday-has-consumer-confidence-been-restored?source=feed#comment-776539 776539 Wed, 25 Nov 2009 05:25:20 -0500 Our family spend our ThanksGiving at shelter this year to show our appreciation. We donate all of our unused household items, help kitchen activities, serve the needs, and have fun together as a family.
We do not want to waste our money on high gas price and time a busy traffics. Who needs all that stress?
There must be a better way to rebuild our country and live healthier with less credit card and monthly payments beyond our mean.
Our retirement is gone with market. Our jobs outsource abroad. We are in recession. My child support is due again.
Our long-term success is highly dependent on its ability to adapt to a market that is increasingly subject to changes. America will prevail and prosper again.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/175196-ahead-of-black-friday-has-consumer-confidence-been-restored?source=feed#comment-776500 776500 Wed, 25 Nov 2009 04:11:52 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/174653-the-fed-backed-itself-into-a-corner?source=feed#comment-776423 776423 Wed, 25 Nov 2009 00:36:43 -0500