Tim Gallagher

Tim Gallagher
Contributor since: 2013
Company: Masthead Equity Research Partners
MWinMD-Thanks for all the good feedback, and yeah, I do a load of research, but not necessarily for each article. Being a long time student of the markets, having much of this already mentally filed, and anticipating scenarios, allows me to hit my playbook memory section. having the wind at your back may be that one piece of exogenous data that allows certain positions taken to be ones of strength.
We're of like minds on your stated intended position, and VGK's perfect. I almost suggested it to you earlier when reading your first comment! Do you read minds?
Thanks for your admiration and for being a new follower. Also for clarifying that MD on your call sign. I'm in the medical field most of my professional career, so I automatically wonder, and eventually the question would have been put to you!
The last bet I made was taking the Ravens before the beginning of the first playoff game-also an unpopular, or uncommon, unshared belief!
I only wish that they had had half of that caliber of play the other night!
Lewis made a demonstrative difference.
MWinMD-You're welcome-thanks for the complement. I do all kinds of timeframe investments, and usually trade or sell at opportunistic times, almost always with intent on buying back in lower. With that in mind my basic time frame is 10-20 yrs., so that allows me to invest with that as my initial entry. That allows for a whole host of bad news to negatively impact stocks countries, continents...whichever.
That long period of time allows me to get in early, sometimes too early, but if that happens and I take a 10-25% hit, I usually buy in and increase the position. I love low prices, value, and bad news! Rarely has that worked against me over any 5 yr. or longer time period.
I'd buy a general European fund or ETF with a value bent initially, then look at Germany, due to its better economic story. Go for growth once you have a feel and are immersed on the events that are affecting your position (and best interests). Personally, I've owned the Tweedy Browne Global Value Fund since its 1994 inception, and they always have a great EU? European concentration of blue chip and smaller cap value names-Heineken, etc. That's my base, then I've owned Janus Overseas, and a couple of funds for instant diversification.
My own picks then have gone to individual stocks-Vodafone, Astra Zeneca, ING Groep, Roche Holding, and others over the years. My point is though, as a hedge against any stock-picking prowess that I may think I have, I also have professionals managing some of my money as a hedge, insuring it against the idiot!
Phemale60-That doesn't look like the Manhattan skyline behind you! Seriously though, thanks for your appreciation. You like those retailers by the looks of it. I have a article on one small cap retailer that you might consider looking into. Promise I'll come back and tip you off when it's published. It's in the pipeline now, and I've owned it for 8 yrs. If you're still commenting here I'll reply directly. If you move on, can I just email you here on SA?
Generally, between Syria and all the Taper turmoil, maybe the best time, as you've stated, is now-between earnings season, before the Holidays, and before any positive back to school comp. sales are hitting the Street. Catch shares on a down day or two. We have plenty of macro-factors that will put a sale on just for you!
Take Care Today
Excellent observation. Thank you for bringing this nuanced detail to my attention.
Thanks for the article ID. It would make a good defensive and diversified holding company with hidden value.
Jon-Thanks for ringing the bell and accurately answering Dan's question. Muchas Gracias, Senior.
I'm glad you got everything you asked for Dan.
That's obvious. So what's the question? I'd suggest doing some contributor-like due diligence. Maybe you can do an article on it. Let me know if you do.
Yep. SO? Why'd you buy VOD in the 1st place? Didn't most of its dividends come from VZW, the most profitable wireless operation in the world? Aren't you a contributor? I'd suggest you do some homework.
I would take into account 1) VZ 9and now, hopefully VZW, is a "utility," a needed service, well desired by Americans. VZ has a beta of only 0.4, a 4.61% dividend yield, or .53c per quarterly distribution. It has come off its 52-wk. high in May, that's due to the Federal Reserve's "Taper Talk." As a hi-yielder, it's interest rate sensitive. If you look at a 5yr. chart, VZ is above a strong support line. Why are you so worried that shares will fall into the price ranges you've suggested? If you're that nervous and have no reasons other than worries/ concerns, either ignore that and be objective as a good investor is best served to do, or sell!
Take Care,
T. Gallagher
Good Morning Yadbugee- This is from the Vodafone website. It may help you:
http://bit.ly/177uweu
See part Overview of the Transactions / Share consideration.
Maybe news and economic data like this will enable you to view the EU in a more dynamic, less static context. From SA Market Currents: Wednesday, Sep 4 4:37 AM
Eurozone business activity grows at fastest pace in two years

The eurozone composite PMI rose to 51.5 (flash 51.7) in August from 50.5 in July, indicating the fastest rate of growth since 2011. The services index increased to 50.7 (51) from 49.8, representing the first increase in activity for a year and a half. "The eurozone recovery is looking increasingly broad-based, with more sectors and more countries emerging from recession," says Markit. "Domestic demand is starting to pick up...with the region’s retail PMI also moving into positive territory for the first time in over two years." Spain and Italy have joined Germany in returning to growth, while France's decline is far weaker than earlier in the year. However, job losses continue.
Good Morning Dan. Thanks for the link. I was on the website to research this report, but have been busy after Labor Day at my primary work. The answers to you r questions are all here, regarding any hypothetical drop in VZ's share price value> "Share consideration
A fixed value collar has been agreed between Vodafone and Verizon.
If the volume weighted average Verizon share price on the NYSE during the 20 business days ending three days prior to the completion of the VZW Transaction is between US$47.00 and US$51.00 the number of shares to be issued by Verizon will be adjusted such that the aggregate value of the share consideration will remain US$60.2 billion, unless reduced by the cash election. On this basis, a maximum of 1,280 million Verizon shares and a minimum of 1,179 million Verizon shares will be issued to Vodafone shareholders.
If the volume weighted average Verizon share price during that period is above the range then the minimum of 1,179 million shares will be issued; and if it is below the range then the maximum of 1,280 million shares will be issued."
You can do all the scenarios' calculations from this clause.
Have a great day.
Dan, show me a source. What details of the deal and collar are you looking at? Thanks,
Tim
I highly doubt it, and I've been in AFFX twice-2000-2001 and 2005 to current. One quarter of a surprise beat on ANY earnings, vs. so many quarters of losses, failed turnaround attempts, an in light of the massive competition from some giants are choking this stock to death! I hate to say that, as a long term long investor, and I love the technology that AFFX pioneered, but I put objectivity into my recent article (below) and suggested a strong sell, or even better, short it. That even goes against my long position that I still hold in full. The reason for that is in my article. I don't want other investors to get entangled in the same spider's web that I'm stuck in.
Is Affymetrix 'Sequencing' A Turnaround, Or Just A Devolving Genetic Anomaly?
Aug 12 2013, 03:27 | 2 commentsby: Tim Gallagher | about: AFFX
http://seekingalpha.co...
Casey, you didn't wince too hard. As another reader suggested, you might consider retracting the article and putting in your view now, post-news opinion. Otherwise it's not very professional to monetize a title that grabs unwarranted attention, based on no conviction, and submitted in light of the material facts.
That's more like plain greed and "prostituting" sensationalism, something that lowers not only your professional standards, but SA's integrity in general, in my opinion. Unless it's just "anything for a buck!" Sorry for sounding harsh, but you do know you have the option to resubmit a bullish position but retract this recommendation
Respectfully,
T. Gallagher
Yadbugee-You come off as a young man to me. Ask yourself-"Why did I buy VOD in the 1st place?" That will help. Are you a trader? If not, you have more than a year to decide, unless you need the money for something else. If that's the case, short term money aside from trading shouldn't be in stock.
VOD is a compelling long term investment, as the deal it got for VZ shows what a great 14yr. investment can result in. The deal may take a year to even get all the approvals by the govt. regulatory agencies. Meanwhile, assume the deal doesn't go through. You still get a nice dividend, global exposure to an integrated telecom utility, and I strongly believe that what they did in VZ Wireless 14 yrs. ago will happen in many of the countries that VOD has invested in. Plus, you already have about a 22% gain. If you feel nervous just sell half. I'd wait for more news and developments. In the meantime, hold off until you at least get the next dividend.
I hope that's helpful.
Dan-I think the deal for VOD of VZ stock also has debt and other components. The VOD was down today due to a clause in the deal that allows VOD to back out if they have to pay too much in taxes. I didn't see that detail anywhere yet, I heard via CNBC. There are other clauses that are in such a huge underwriting and deal.
Usually clauses are included that specify the imputed value of stock and other issues to meet certain prices points, so if VZ fell below $40.00, VOD would receive more shares, more cash, or more debt, and VZ's announced stock offering on this deal was already conveyed to VOD, and inputted into the calculations as to the purchase terms.
Casey-My apologies that you had some bad timing in having the editors publishing your article. That's especially true for an income/ dividend-oriented investor. One of my disciplines is in the VOD-VZ Article I released here yesterday. In it was a rule that prevented me from making both a bad call, as well as selling out before reaping the rewards of being a VOD shareholder. Hopefully this will help both you and all of the readers/ investors in the future: I'll quote, then you can read the reasoning if you wish for the reasons I changed my view on VOD to one similar to yours, to a longer term owner:
Vodafone - A Clear Signal Now, And Dialing Up A Connection For Stronger Long-Term Profits; Sep 2 2013, 14:49:
http://seekingalpha.co...
I write a prudent rule in buy and sell considerations and points. Keeping an open mind helps as well. "As long as VOD holds its "Crown Asset" of VZ Wireless, and some potential deal may emerge, that's a positive underpinning. Personally, I hope they decide to hold these assets, or maybe outline favorable leasing terms (or something in that nature) with VZ.
Those two factors are anchoring VOD's steady share price of late.
On the plus side, they have been making some smart investments. They have more crown-jewel assets in both Australia and New Zealand, and have committed to upgrading a CAPEX project to lay a huge underwater transoceanic sea line communications trunk that will allow state of the art access content, maybe with leasing rights as an option for its competitors. 16 Aug., 06:33 PM.
I also favored Vodafone retaining all its interest in Verizon Wireless (VZ), as the revenue growth and profit make up a considerable amount of VOD's top and bottom lines. The market share in the USA is nearly impossible to replicate, at least without an immense capital expenditure [CAPEX] and likely ten or more years' time for any telecom competitor. That's if the Federal Trade and Federal Communications Commissions permit such a goal from any new or established telco.
Without the 45% ownership of the VZ Wireless interests, I set a possible exit sell point on news of that potential deal.
Thursday, August 29th and Friday, August 30th would have made a good time to take profits. That would have been a knee-jerk trade, as any news of the deal had been based on speculation and rumor, and no material news had come to light prior to Sunday, September 1st. The deal terms agreed upon are still preliminary and not voted on by each company's respective shareholders, nor approved yet by any of the presiding government regulatory agencies.
Decisions made on rumors or on lack of verifiable facts can severely limit potential gains, and they also can incur unwanted taxable events, for no reason. I'm better off for not just selling VOD on an 8-9% gain before Labor Day.
Any investor in either of these stocks or committed to the telecom communications sector has likely got wind of Sunday's huge deal announcement.
Only after catching the highlights of the deal's terms have I changed my outlook 180 degrees, and I now have an increased respect and admiration for the senior management at Vodafone. Pending the successful outcome of the deal, and all the necessary votes and mandatory approvals are received, Vodafone made about the sweetest deal ever made, at least on the scale of the 3rd largest acquisition in history.
From Seeking Alpha's Market Currents:
Sun, Sep. 01, 2013 2:54 PM VZ Verizon, Vodafone reach $130B deal on Verizon Wireless stake-WSJ"
The rest of the material facts and analysis are in my write-up. Live and learn from the school of hard knocks, which, as investors, we all do sooner or later. It will also keep your readers and followers happy! I guess since you're in Taiwan you don't celebrate Labor Day anymore(?).
Respectfully,
T. Gallagher
Dan, this deal, plus doing some DD since I bought VOD in May, plus research for this article, It's pretty clear to me that they've been investing well, despite the recession in Europe. Notice the assets in Germany. That's the main cash cow now, and Germany's strong. The U.K. still has some headwinds, but is recovering, although that's the most competitive market VOD is in. Expect that to perform similar, albeit slower than the U.S. Same kind of fierce competition, growth and market share split well by the powerhouses.
In the EMS though, they've been executing according to the company vision, which I provided in the report.
Good Luck, Mate!
Good intro to an interesting and underfollowed stock. Thanks, Regarded Solutions. This would be an eclectic diversified holding, kind of like a think tank, incubator, PE and venture capital bound together by Nano-rubber bands.
I respect and admire Langone on all levels, and his savvy counts for some rational consideration.
hksche2000-I go by the contrarian deep value, buy at the bottom old school. Of course, you must be patient, not rash. N. Europe and much of E. Europe is showing definite trends if recovery. Just look at the last three months of econ. data. Three months does make a trend, a view espoused by most every economist. . That will have some positive drag on S. Europe.
Aside from that, if you were more familiar with VOD's strategy and operating record, and if you did some DD as I suggested, listening to the July Earnings call, you would have seen that, even in Spain and Italy, some of the telecom trends that were negative have slowed (maybe indicating a near-bottom), and some of the trends in THOSE markets were positive. SO mixed results. Better than the apocalyptic no hope in sight image that you hold. As I also reiterated, as stated by the CEO, even in recessionary markets, the need for telecom and data is an increasing essential. I cited India, a market with huge headwinds and much worse poverty issues, and without support from a Union like the EU to bail them out, where despite that neg. backdrop, trends-even in mobile and subscriptions, are rising. VOD's modus operandi is to take advantage of regional weaknesses and build out and take market share, and, unlike the Spanish and Italian telecoms, they have the bucks to do it.
Bill, thanks for the feedback. First, I'm an investor, not a writer by trade. As far as writing, I've never taken a journalism class, although I've always been a voracious reader, and excelled in literature and English classes.
Aside from medical presentations and some business proposals, this is my first foray for pay into writing. I am creative (artist, drummer/ percussionist, entrepreneur) by nature, so please forgive my aim at adding some creative literary content into a topic that is normally dry and drab.
Second, it's much easier to be a critic than the creator. I see that you don't contribute to SA. Frankly, you weaken your critical case somewhat by using phases in your own "verbiage" by using redundant phrases yourself, like "Department of Redundancy Department!" That is the epitome of "calling the kettle black
SA editors are professional. As I understand it, SA only selects 25% ~ of contributors to write for them, period. I must be doing something right. For a man who can use the words malapropism and verbiage, looking through the forest to see the trees is my suggestion for you, all due respect.
On a substantive level, any investor with any chops sees the negative effects that reduced monetary accommodation, or just the eventuality of "Tapering," has had, and will have on the dividend plays and interest-bearing asset classes. It's redundant to rehash that pummeled issue. That's what the major news broadcasters do to unsophisticated consumers and "investors."
Thanks for your feedback.
Not disagreeing entirely, but almost all retailers that have been reporting lower sales / earnings are apparel, teen apparel, or big box stores that sell usually a big amount of clothing. Accessories are generally doing well with a couple of exceptions. People are buying CHEAP-cars, homes, electronics, appliances, projects (home improvement). Spending's stronger than ARO and M would have you believe.
In the 1990's, EM nations mostly their currencies to the $USD. Not so much now. They also have gotten much larger, much more liquidity.
Picolomini-Thanks for your positive opinion. I've heard of Allana Potash, but don't know a thing about it yet. Potash is needed everywhere and demand is growing with populations. Ethiopia is probably a low cost, low labor place to mine. Indian Ocean with routes to Asia, inroads to Africa-political and crime rates are main risks.
Be safe this weekend!
It finally dawned on me. George, you're the reincarnation of beloved and dearly departed Alan Abelson! Either that, or that Gypsy woman up top conjured him for you in a séance, and he guides your fingers, keyboard, and pen. It's like WOW, he speaks through you!
Acs= Abelson's conjured spirit
Thanks again for a great and humorous, topically relevant article.
Good questions abbaman. Israel's a strong ally in the ME-NA region, under fear of siege at nearly all times, esp. now. They're reliable, have strong defenses, and will aid and support it's allies interests.
"Are you saying that they would stockpile inventory in Israel for sale in the areas you mentioned?"
Yes, stockpile only, as a transport & distribution hub. Not take market share, which also partially address your secondary, related question. It's t difficult for allied nations to secure cooperative agreements to not threaten IC market share. As you know, POT has an interest, why hinder and dilute it's own ownership interests?
"If that were the case, wouldn't they then be competing with ICL, a company in which POT currently has a 14% interest?" cost of goods (P, N, K, etc.) are higher when transport internationally would not suggest competitive cost per tonne with supply with supply on-hand in-country.
N. American sellers would have a hard time competing on price as the "away team." Israel would profit more from warehousing, shipping, and logistical services it would provide. I would have suggested as well, but they have too much governmental strife right now to rely on adequate security and integrity.
Enjoy the holiday!
Greenlight5-Thanks for your interest and compliments. I'm not as familiar with RNF as compared to the others, but I plan on doing some more due diligence on it. They do have a broad fertilizer product offering, so that helps them being in diversified business. I suggest you do some research, check ears, business model, and other fundamentals. I do know that a colleague who invests 2 degrees in chemicals and chem. engineering knows the cost of their production, all the forms of P, K, N they sell, and he feels that RNF is the best bet. WE both need to check them out!
Be safe and enjoy the long wknd. as well,
T. Gallagher
Thanks for your compliments Barry.
Have Great and Safe Labor Day weekend!
Insider-Alert, Thank you for your glowing endorsement. I appreciate. I did submit it as an Alpha-Rich report. SA Editors suggested two minor additions for it to qualify. I did them, and more, then was told that it wasn't "insightful enough" to make my case for an "unrecognized opportunity." Who knows?
On the flip side, I wrote a general article on Potash and the agri-stocks on Jul. 30th, due to 22-27% sell-off, and all from memory and suppositional scenarios. Took about two hours. My most-read and popular piece by far. At least I get an SCI and/ or editor's pick about 50% of the time. That's what makes a market/
NLS is a great hidden gem. You're right to be accumulating.
Happy Labor Day!
Chart Interpretation 102. Investors have to have an understanding of the relative comparisons to look at in context, in order to get the complete picture. How the various money supply metrics relate to GDP, spending, monetary availability, various debt stats., etc. You write, "In either case, investors should not be buying this tall tale." In my opinion, and materially irrelevant, is a more accurate description is a "short tale," as the presenter wasn't pitching with honest contexts in support. Unethical, likely to reel in ignorant sheep. "Economize" is putting that type of behavior mildly.
I know that this is an exercise for you, in an effort to teach, and I respect that Jeff. You do great work, and that's why I read you. Keep it up! Somebody reading this will learn a valuable lesson.
Wow, no comments? I've owned NBR since 2006, bought most (other than 12% initial position at lows over the years (Mar.2009). Isenberg and the pay was a huge overhang. Just added another 15% last week at $15.48. Shale plays should be LT accumulate. That GS rating caught my eye on CNBC about a month ago. What's the PACE X, Marshall? That one of NBR's "custom" high-end rigs?
Thanks for the brief write-up. May I ask, why don't you own any? Have a great & Safe Labor Day! Look forward to your future contributions.
T. Gallagher