Tim Iacono - Seeking Alpha 'Tim Iacono' Tag RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.com/author/tim-iacono William White: 'It's 2003 All Over Again' http://seekingalpha.com/article/172835-william-white-it-s-2003-all-over-again?source=feed 172835 In today's commentary at Bloomberg, Caroline Baum consults with former Bank of International Settlements chief William White on the similarities between today's liquidity-fueled ascent of asset prices and the last time something like this happened.

Yes, that would be the same 2005 era "Chicken Little", Austrian-leaning William White whom, after the financial market meltdown last year, people started listening to instead of higher profile retired economists as noted here a few months back.
IMAGE It's funny how dramatically reputations can rise and fall based on financial market developments and prospects for the future, a future that it now seems clear will not have ordinary Americans wealthy beyond their wildest dreams simply because they owned a piece of real estate.

]]> Wed, 11 Nov 2009 15:16:37 -0500 Tim Iacono Tim Iacono submits:

In today's commentary at Bloomberg, Caroline Baum consults with former Bank of International Settlements chief William White on the similarities between today's liquidity-fueled ascent of asset prices and the last time something like this happened.

Yes, that would be the same 2005 era "Chicken Little", Austrian-leaning William White whom, after the financial market meltdown last year, people started listening to instead of higher profile retired economists as noted here a few months back.
IMAGE It's funny how dramatically reputations can rise and fall based on financial market developments and prospects for the future, a future that it now seems clear will not have ordinary Americans wealthy beyond their wildest dreams simply because they owned a piece of real estate.


Complete Story »]]> Tim Iacono Fred Sheehan on Alan Greenspan http://seekingalpha.com/article/172831-fred-sheehan-on-alan-greenspan?source=feed 172831 Fred Sheehan clearly dislikes former Fed chairman Alan Greenspan even more than yours truly, now having written two books on the subject. Recently released Panderer to Power: The True Story of How Alan Greenspan Enriched Wall Street and Left a Legacy of Recession follows Sheehan's earlier work, co-written with Bill Fleckenstein, with the more succinct (but more damning) title of Greenspan's Bubbles: The Age of Ignorance at the Federal Reserve.

There's a new blog too where Fred answers a few questions:

]]> Wed, 11 Nov 2009 14:51:13 -0500 Tim Iacono Tim Iacono submits:

Fred Sheehan clearly dislikes former Fed chairman Alan Greenspan even more than yours truly, now having written two books on the subject. Recently released Panderer to Power: The True Story of How Alan Greenspan Enriched Wall Street and Left a Legacy of Recession follows Sheehan's earlier work, co-written with Bill Fleckenstein, with the more succinct (but more damning) title of Greenspan's Bubbles: The Age of Ignorance at the Federal Reserve.

There's a new blog too where Fred answers a few questions:


Complete Story »]]> Tim Iacono The Evolution of Non-Farm Payrolls http://seekingalpha.com/article/172828-the-evolution-of-non-farm-payrolls?source=feed 172828 Curious about how the major U.S. nonfarm payroll categories have changed since record keeping began in 1939, the chart below was prepared. Note that the lowest growth categories are listed at the top and the highest growth categories are at the bottom.
IMAGE Obviously, the demise of manufacturing and the rise of education and health care are the most significant aspects of the data. But, the government category and the professional and business services categories were a bit surprising, expansion in the former expected to be larger and growth in the latter expected to be smaller.

Surely, many counted in professional and business services work for companies that contract with the federal, state, or local government, however, this number is not broken out in the Labor Department data.

]]> Wed, 11 Nov 2009 14:44:43 -0500 Tim Iacono Tim Iacono submits:

Curious about how the major U.S. nonfarm payroll categories have changed since record keeping began in 1939, the chart below was prepared. Note that the lowest growth categories are listed at the top and the highest growth categories are at the bottom.
IMAGE Obviously, the demise of manufacturing and the rise of education and health care are the most significant aspects of the data. But, the government category and the professional and business services categories were a bit surprising, expansion in the former expected to be larger and growth in the latter expected to be smaller.

Surely, many counted in professional and business services work for companies that contract with the federal, state, or local government, however, this number is not broken out in the Labor Department data.


Complete Story »]]> Tim Iacono Gold ETF Adds a Little Metal to Its Inventory http://seekingalpha.com/article/172417-gold-etf-adds-a-little-metal-to-its-inventory?source=feed 172417 It's funny that, for about four or five months earlier in the year, news outlets like Reuters would cite any changes to the inventory at the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (NYSEArca:GLD) in their morning report on the gold market, sometimes in the headline.

That doesn't happen much anymore for reasons that should be clear in the chart below.
IMAGE The "tonnes in the trust" did tick up yesterday, the 6.1 tonne addition being the biggest increase in over a month, following an addition of 4.9 tonnes four days ago.

]]> Tue, 10 Nov 2009 04:55:04 -0500 Tim Iacono Tim Iacono submits:

It's funny that, for about four or five months earlier in the year, news outlets like Reuters would cite any changes to the inventory at the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (NYSEArca:GLD) in their morning report on the gold market, sometimes in the headline.

That doesn't happen much anymore for reasons that should be clear in the chart below.
IMAGE The "tonnes in the trust" did tick up yesterday, the 6.1 tonne addition being the biggest increase in over a month, following an addition of 4.9 tonnes four days ago.


Complete Story »]]> GLD Tim Iacono How Much Has the Stock Market Really Progressed Since the Days of Vanderbilt? http://seekingalpha.com/article/172414-how-much-has-the-stock-market-really-progressed-since-the-days-of-vanderbilt?source=feed 172414 There was an excellent story in WSJ about "Commodore" Cornelius Vanderbilt's 19th century railroad empire as it relates to Warren Buffet's acquisition of Burlington Northern (BNI). The article covered a lot about the history of the railroads as well as that of the stock market. The following little, offhand, parenthetical comment below stuck with me:

Mr. Buffett's approach to investment often seems to parallel the Commodore's. Vanderbilt accepted no salary as an executive, but took only the dividends on his personal stock. (In his era, investors expected steady dividends, not rising share prices.)

]]> Tue, 10 Nov 2009 04:51:49 -0500 Tim Iacono Tim Iacono submits:

There was an excellent story in WSJ about "Commodore" Cornelius Vanderbilt's 19th century railroad empire as it relates to Warren Buffet's acquisition of Burlington Northern (BNI). The article covered a lot about the history of the railroads as well as that of the stock market. The following little, offhand, parenthetical comment below stuck with me:

Mr. Buffett's approach to investment often seems to parallel the Commodore's. Vanderbilt accepted no salary as an executive, but took only the dividends on his personal stock. (In his era, investors expected steady dividends, not rising share prices.)


Complete Story »]]> BNI Tim Iacono How Nations Spent Their Stimulus Money http://seekingalpha.com/article/172290-how-nations-spent-their-stimulus-money?source=feed 172290 Here's an interesting graphic from a recent IMF report(.pdf) that shows how countries around the world spent their stimuls money. Generally speaking, the more developed the economy, the more it spent on direct aid and the less it spent on investment.
IMAGE It would have been nice to ditch the scale on top and have the length of the bars represent the stimulus as a percent of GDP in which case, if memory serves, nations such as China, the U.S., and the U.K. would have the longest bars.

]]> Mon, 09 Nov 2009 15:33:41 -0500 Tim Iacono Tim Iacono submits:

Here's an interesting graphic from a recent IMF report(.pdf) that shows how countries around the world spent their stimuls money. Generally speaking, the more developed the economy, the more it spent on direct aid and the less it spent on investment.
IMAGE It would have been nice to ditch the scale on top and have the length of the bars represent the stimulus as a percent of GDP in which case, if memory serves, nations such as China, the U.S., and the U.K. would have the longest bars.


Complete Story »]]> Tim Iacono Fixing the Economy by Breaking It Yet Again http://seekingalpha.com/article/172135-fixing-the-economy-by-breaking-it-yet-again?source=feed 172135 The op-ed section of the weekend edition of the Wall Street Journal offers another look at Austrian economics as it relates to the ongoing economic crisis in this commentary by hedge fund manager Mark Spitznagel.

The Man Who Predicted the Depression
Ludwig von Mises was snubbed by economists world-wide as he warned of a credit crisis in the 1920s. We ignore the great Austrian at our peril today.

]]> Mon, 09 Nov 2009 04:07:59 -0500 Tim Iacono Tim Iacono submits:

The op-ed section of the weekend edition of the Wall Street Journal offers another look at Austrian economics as it relates to the ongoing economic crisis in this commentary by hedge fund manager Mark Spitznagel.

The Man Who Predicted the Depression
Ludwig von Mises was snubbed by economists world-wide as he warned of a credit crisis in the 1920s. We ignore the great Austrian at our peril today.


Complete Story »]]> Tim Iacono The New Version of Depression Apple Selling http://seekingalpha.com/article/172044-the-new-version-of-depression-apple-selling?source=feed 172044 Anyone who has lived in the southwestern part of the U.S. for any length of time over the past few decades will surely appreciate how grave the situation has become for some Americans when considering that the ranks of day laborers standing on street corners in the morning are no longer restricted to recent immigrants and illegal aliens.

It should be clear to even the most casual observer that the biggest busts have occurred in parts of the country where the biggest booms once flourished - that would be California, Nevada, and Arizona - where tales of woe are now spreading as fast as home prices rose back in the first half of the decade.

]]> Sun, 08 Nov 2009 05:53:54 -0500 Tim Iacono Tim Iacono submits:

Anyone who has lived in the southwestern part of the U.S. for any length of time over the past few decades will surely appreciate how grave the situation has become for some Americans when considering that the ranks of day laborers standing on street corners in the morning are no longer restricted to recent immigrants and illegal aliens.

It should be clear to even the most casual observer that the biggest busts have occurred in parts of the country where the biggest booms once flourished - that would be California, Nevada, and Arizona - where tales of woe are now spreading as fast as home prices rose back in the first half of the decade.


Complete Story »]]> Tim Iacono Consumer Credit Contraction: How Can a Rate Easing Be Good News? http://seekingalpha.com/article/172040-consumer-credit-contraction-how-can-a-rate-easing-be-good-news?source=feed 172040 Econoday reports that consumer credit contracted for a record eighth straight month in September as consumers tightened their belts and lenders tightened credit.

Between consumers sticking their money into savings and banks cutting back on loans, consumer credit continues to tighten and dramatically. Consumer credit outstanding fell $14.8 billion in September to extend a long run of declines.
IMAGE Revolving credit, mostly credit cards, fell $9.9 billion with non-revolving, mostly car loans, down $4.9 billion. What little good news there may be is that the rate of contraction is easing as consumer credit contracted at a 6.1 percent pace in the third quarter vs. 6.6 percent in the second quarter.

]]> Sun, 08 Nov 2009 05:33:49 -0500 Tim Iacono Tim Iacono submits:

Econoday reports that consumer credit contracted for a record eighth straight month in September as consumers tightened their belts and lenders tightened credit.

Between consumers sticking their money into savings and banks cutting back on loans, consumer credit continues to tighten and dramatically. Consumer credit outstanding fell $14.8 billion in September to extend a long run of declines.
IMAGE Revolving credit, mostly credit cards, fell $9.9 billion with non-revolving, mostly car loans, down $4.9 billion. What little good news there may be is that the rate of contraction is easing as consumer credit contracted at a 6.1 percent pace in the third quarter vs. 6.6 percent in the second quarter.


Complete Story »]]> Tim Iacono What's Up with Gold Inventories? http://seekingalpha.com/article/171902-what-s-up-with-gold-inventories?source=feed 171902

One of the surprising developments related to the recent move up in the gold price (that is, aside from India beating China to half the IMF's stash) is that there has been nary an addition to the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD), the world's most popular gold ETF.
IMAGE After a huge run-up early in the year, a move that was widely believed to have supported the price increase at the time, inventory is now actually below the level seen in April when the yellow metal sold for some $200 or more less.

]]> Fri, 06 Nov 2009 15:57:43 -0500 Tim Iacono Tim Iacono submits:

One of the surprising developments related to the recent move up in the gold price (that is, aside from India beating China to half the IMF's stash) is that there has been nary an addition to the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD), the world's most popular gold ETF.
IMAGE After a huge run-up early in the year, a move that was widely believed to have supported the price increase at the time, inventory is now actually below the level seen in April when the yellow metal sold for some $200 or more less.


Complete Story »]]> DGL GLD IAU Tim Iacono Jobless Recoveries Are a Recent Phenomenon http://seekingalpha.com/article/171858-jobless-recoveries-are-a-recent-phenomenon?source=feed 171858 Writing in Friday morning's Ahead of the Tape column in the Wall Street Journal, Mark Gongloff observed that "jobless recoveries" are a relatively new development.

The time-worn Wall Street gospel is that employment is a lagging indicator, but that isn't always so. It has only lagged significantly in the recoveries that followed the past two recessions.

]]> Fri, 06 Nov 2009 12:56:41 -0500 Tim Iacono Tim Iacono submits:

Writing in Friday morning's Ahead of the Tape column in the Wall Street Journal, Mark Gongloff observed that "jobless recoveries" are a relatively new development.

The time-worn Wall Street gospel is that employment is a lagging indicator, but that isn't always so. It has only lagged significantly in the recoveries that followed the past two recessions.


Complete Story »]]> Tim Iacono Continuing Job Losses Prove that Recovery Has Yet to Gain Traction http://seekingalpha.com/article/171856-continuing-job-losses-prove-that-recovery-has-yet-to-gain-traction?source=feed 171856 The Labor Department on Friday reported that the unemployment rate in the U.S. hit its highest level since March of 1983, rising from 9.8% in September to 10.2% in October, as nonfarm payrolls saw a net decline of 190,000.
IMAGE During the early 1980s recessions the jobless rate peaked at 10.8%, a level that looks increasingly likely to be attained again sometime in the months ahead given the continuing reluctance of employers to hire.

The U-6 under-employment rate, which includes discouraged workers and those settling for part-time work instead of full-time work, rose to 17.5%, the highest level since this data series began 15 years ago.

]]> Fri, 06 Nov 2009 12:51:53 -0500 Tim Iacono Tim Iacono submits:

The Labor Department on Friday reported that the unemployment rate in the U.S. hit its highest level since March of 1983, rising from 9.8% in September to 10.2% in October, as nonfarm payrolls saw a net decline of 190,000.
IMAGE During the early 1980s recessions the jobless rate peaked at 10.8%, a level that looks increasingly likely to be attained again sometime in the months ahead given the continuing reluctance of employers to hire.

The U-6 under-employment rate, which includes discouraged workers and those settling for part-time work instead of full-time work, rose to 17.5%, the highest level since this data series began 15 years ago.


Complete Story »]]> Tim Iacono More Fodder for Inflation / Deflation Debate: Higher Gasoline Prices http://seekingalpha.com/article/171622-more-fodder-for-inflation-deflation-debate-higher-gasoline-prices?source=feed 171622 Those thinking that we've seen the last of inflation for a while might want to have a look at what gasoline prices have been doing lately; that is, relative to a year ago. For the second straight week, the national average for the price at the pump was higher than a year ago.
IMAGE It may not look like much now, but, next month the comparisons will be done against gasoline that sold for as little as $1.61 a gallon last December. Some quick math indicates that the most recent national average of $2.69 a gallon would represent an increase of 68 percent.

This will show up in the inflation data before long. However, at the moment it looks like the year-over-year increases in energy prices may be offset, at least in part, by falling rents.

]]> Thu, 05 Nov 2009 16:05:51 -0500 Tim Iacono Tim Iacono submits:

Those thinking that we've seen the last of inflation for a while might want to have a look at what gasoline prices have been doing lately; that is, relative to a year ago. For the second straight week, the national average for the price at the pump was higher than a year ago.
IMAGE It may not look like much now, but, next month the comparisons will be done against gasoline that sold for as little as $1.61 a gallon last December. Some quick math indicates that the most recent national average of $2.69 a gallon would represent an increase of 68 percent.

This will show up in the inflation data before long. However, at the moment it looks like the year-over-year increases in energy prices may be offset, at least in part, by falling rents.


Complete Story »]]> Tim Iacono Brits More Critical About 'Quantitative Easing' than Americans http://seekingalpha.com/article/171619-brits-more-critical-about-quantitative-easing-than-americans?source=feed 171619 It's probably fair to say that they're making a much bigger deal about "quantitative easing" (better known as "money printing") in the U.K. than in the U.S. and for good reason. As a percent of GDP, the amount of money "created out of thin air" in an effort to aid the economy is comparable, however, the U.S. has succeeded in producing at least one quarter of economic growth since the recession began almost two years ago while the Brits have nil.

The tone of the coverage, however, is much different, the latest example being this story at the Telegraph after word that the Bank of England plans to buy even more government bonds.

]]> Thu, 05 Nov 2009 16:02:06 -0500 Tim Iacono Tim Iacono submits:

It's probably fair to say that they're making a much bigger deal about "quantitative easing" (better known as "money printing") in the U.K. than in the U.S. and for good reason. As a percent of GDP, the amount of money "created out of thin air" in an effort to aid the economy is comparable, however, the U.S. has succeeded in producing at least one quarter of economic growth since the recession began almost two years ago while the Brits have nil.

The tone of the coverage, however, is much different, the latest example being this story at the Telegraph after word that the Bank of England plans to buy even more government bonds.


Complete Story »]]> EWU Tim Iacono Fed's Rate Cutting Campaign: Where Do We Go from Here? http://seekingalpha.com/article/171414-fed-s-rate-cutting-campaign-where-do-we-go-from-here?source=feed 171414 Yesterday's decision to keep short-term interest rates unchanged marks month 26 of the current interest rate cutting campaign, Fed chief Ben Bernanke outdoing his predecessor Alan Greenspan in almost every way.
IMAGE Is there any reason to think that the current cycle will see interest rates rise sooner than they did last time when it took a full 42 months from the first cut to the first baby-step hike?

More importantly, what does the chart above portend for next time, or, do we now share the same future as 1990s Japan where there is no next time - it's ZIRP from here on out?

]]> Thu, 05 Nov 2009 03:58:59 -0500 Tim Iacono Tim Iacono submits:

Yesterday's decision to keep short-term interest rates unchanged marks month 26 of the current interest rate cutting campaign, Fed chief Ben Bernanke outdoing his predecessor Alan Greenspan in almost every way.
IMAGE Is there any reason to think that the current cycle will see interest rates rise sooner than they did last time when it took a full 42 months from the first cut to the first baby-step hike?

More importantly, what does the chart above portend for next time, or, do we now share the same future as 1990s Japan where there is no next time - it's ZIRP from here on out?


Complete Story »]]> Tim Iacono The Significance of the IMF-RBI Gold Sale http://seekingalpha.com/article/171411-the-significance-of-the-imf-rbi-gold-sale?source=feed 171411 Much has been written in the last few days about the surprising purchase by the RBI (Reserve Bank of India) of some 200 tonnes of gold bullion, valued at about $6.7 billion, from the IMF (International Monetary Fund).

Is this really a significant event?

]]> Thu, 05 Nov 2009 03:52:32 -0500 Tim Iacono Tim Iacono submits:

Much has been written in the last few days about the surprising purchase by the RBI (Reserve Bank of India) of some 200 tonnes of gold bullion, valued at about $6.7 billion, from the IMF (International Monetary Fund).

Is this really a significant event?


Complete Story »]]> GLD IAU Tim Iacono More Bubble Talk from the Financial Times http://seekingalpha.com/article/171408-more-bubble-talk-from-the-financial-times?source=feed 171408 Here's some more food for thought from the Financial Times for the many bubble-deniers in the world, such as Jim Rogers as seen in this item previously. The British business daily seems to be full of "bubble stories" in recent weeks, just a few days ago publishing Nouriel Roubini's Mother of all carry trades faces an inevitable bust.

China rushes towards a Japan-style bubble
By Peter Tasker

]]> Thu, 05 Nov 2009 03:38:03 -0500 Tim Iacono Tim Iacono submits:

Here's some more food for thought from the Financial Times for the many bubble-deniers in the world, such as Jim Rogers as seen in this item previously. The British business daily seems to be full of "bubble stories" in recent weeks, just a few days ago publishing Nouriel Roubini's Mother of all carry trades faces an inevitable bust.

China rushes towards a Japan-style bubble
By Peter Tasker


Complete Story »]]> FXI PGJ Tim Iacono Jim Rogers on Nouriel Roubini http://seekingalpha.com/article/171404-jim-rogers-on-nouriel-roubini?source=feed 171404 Billionaire Jim Rogers was on Bloomberg and he sounded a little bit more cranky than usual, particularly when talking about current market conditions as they relate to the growing chorus of bubble callers, the most prominent of whom is Nouriel Roubini.
IMAGE

Click to play in a new window


There's a related report at Bloomberg.com with a few more details, including another demonstration of Rogers' fixation with "homework".

]]> Thu, 05 Nov 2009 03:25:59 -0500 Tim Iacono Tim Iacono submits:

Billionaire Jim Rogers was on Bloomberg and he sounded a little bit more cranky than usual, particularly when talking about current market conditions as they relate to the growing chorus of bubble callers, the most prominent of whom is Nouriel Roubini.
IMAGE

Click to play in a new window


There's a related report at Bloomberg.com with a few more details, including another demonstration of Rogers' fixation with "homework".


Complete Story »]]> Tim Iacono Cause for Concern: No Change from the Fed http://seekingalpha.com/article/171262-cause-for-concern-no-change-from-the-fed?source=feed 171262 Aside from a reduction in the purchase of GSE debt from $200 billion to $175 billion, there were no substantive changes to the Federal Reserve's policy statement today after the central bank concluded two days of deliberation.

Naturally, the "freakishly low" short-term lending rate of between 0.0 and 0.25 percent will be maintained and, more importantly, the key phrase "for an extended period" was left intact.

]]> Wed, 04 Nov 2009 15:27:09 -0500 Tim Iacono Tim Iacono submits:

Aside from a reduction in the purchase of GSE debt from $200 billion to $175 billion, there were no substantive changes to the Federal Reserve's policy statement today after the central bank concluded two days of deliberation.

Naturally, the "freakishly low" short-term lending rate of between 0.0 and 0.25 percent will be maintained and, more importantly, the key phrase "for an extended period" was left intact.


Complete Story »]]> DIA GLD IAU SPY UDN UUP Tim Iacono India Jumps Up in Gold Rankings http://seekingalpha.com/article/171190-india-jumps-up-in-gold-rankings?source=feed 171190 Here's what the most recent World Official Gold Holdings from the World Gold Council look like with the transfer of 200 tonnes of the yellow metal from the IMF to India.
IMAGE Hopefully, they're taking delivery of the stuff rather than trusting that gold held in New York vaults will be transferred to their account or some such.

]]> Wed, 04 Nov 2009 12:30:43 -0500 Tim Iacono Tim Iacono submits:

Here's what the most recent World Official Gold Holdings from the World Gold Council look like with the transfer of 200 tonnes of the yellow metal from the IMF to India.
IMAGE Hopefully, they're taking delivery of the stuff rather than trusting that gold held in New York vaults will be transferred to their account or some such.


Complete Story »]]> GLD Tim Iacono