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Tim Iacono

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  • Good Riddance To The Weak Hands Selling GLD Shares [View article]
    If things keep going as they've been going with Cyprus appearing to be an important precedent (if not a model) for rescuing banks, I think you'll see a lot more physical buying than ETF buying in the years ahead due to trust issues.
    Apr 23 12:31 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Gold Won't Protect You From Inflation: What History Tells Us [View article]
    Gold is highly correlated (inversely) to real interest rates (e.g., Fed funds rate minus inflation), so, they are really a function of how policy makers respond to inflation rather than inflation itself.
    Apr 17 06:32 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Bursting Gold 'Fear Bubble' Vs. The 'Confidence Bubble' In Policy Makers, Economists, And Markets [View article]
    We are unlikely to convince each other of anything other than that economists' models are crap, but, regarding Fed money printing, see:

    Why Current Fed Money Printing Will Lead To Higher Gold And Silver Prices
    http://seekingalpha.co...

    As for withdrawing stimulus, one thing I can guarantee is that the Fed will talk a lot, but they'll be super slow to take action even if inflation is rising. There is no way that a Bernanke/Yellen Fed will withdraw stimulus too fast - that is not in their DNA.
    Apr 17 05:18 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Bursting Gold 'Fear Bubble' Vs. The 'Confidence Bubble' In Policy Makers, Economists, And Markets [View article]
    Funny - I agree with everything you say.

    I've never supported the idea of hyperinflation in the U.S. though I think we'll get much higher levels of inflation eventually (and eventually just drew nearer with the current 2.5x times the rate of global money printing in 2013 vs. 2008-2012).
    Apr 17 02:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Bursting Gold 'Fear Bubble' Vs. The 'Confidence Bubble' In Policy Makers, Economists, And Markets [View article]
    That's a good way to put it.

    I find it difficult to believe that so few people think what began in 2008 will all end well (or that it has already ended well).
    Apr 17 02:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Bursting Gold 'Fear Bubble' Vs. The 'Confidence Bubble' In Policy Makers, Economists, And Markets [View article]
    I didn't think I needed to spell this out.
    I was wrong.
    I didn't mean to imply that you could take your gold coins down to the 7-11 to buy a Slurpee but, rather, that gold has served as money for thousands of years, up until a few decades ago.
    In that a rising gold price makes fiat money look bad (i.e., "to some extent" in the above excerpt), gold is in competition with current day money.
    Apr 17 02:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Paper Selling In The West Could Spur A Gold Rush In The East [View article]
    Short-term moves are temporary and come from different (higher) levels.
    Apr 16 09:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dismal Labor Report Gives Precious Metals Markets New Life [View article]
    The "paper gold and silver" phrase refers to futures markets where metal prices are set. The supply/demand dynamics are very different there than for coins in the U.S. or, generally, in Asia.
    Apr 7 05:49 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Takes Out Major Support: Next Stop $1,350 [View article]
    Your argument about real returns for stocks and bonds being far better than gold over the last two centuries might be more convincing if gold weren't money during about 150 of those years, during which time inflation was zero.

    That's kind of an important part of the story.
    Apr 3 06:18 PM | 29 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Renewed Euro Crisis, Rising Inflation To Push Precious Metals Higher [View article]
    Yeah, looks like a big reversal of the RO-RO trade with markets already reacting:

    http://bit.ly/116QgXN

    The latest news is that they're going to soften the blow for small savers and take more from the big accounts, but it sounds like they're locked in to the "raid the savings accounts" approach.
    Mar 17 06:30 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Renewed Euro Crisis, Rising Inflation To Push Precious Metals Higher [View article]
    Thanks.
    To be clear, I've never referred to this as a completed pattern, just a "developing" one.
    Re: the head - I've not come across anything to distinguish a triple bottom from a head-and-shoulders bottom aside from the middle low being lowest in the latter. If there is a minimum difference between the head and shoulders for it to be called such, that's not something that is easy to find.
    As for the pattern coming after an extended uptrend, not an extended decline, that seems to pop up in nearly all the definitions and, as such, I guess I'll have to think of something else to call this.
    Mar 17 03:54 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Renewed Euro Crisis, Rising Inflation To Push Precious Metals Higher [View article]
    As stated, a "developing reverse head-and-shoulders pattern" also known as a "head-and-shoulders bottom" or an "inverse head-and-shoulders" pattern.

    Per StockCharts (http://bit.ly/WPYp1d):

    "The pattern contains three successive troughs with the middle trough (head) being the deepest and the two outside troughs (shoulders) being shallower."

    In what respects does this not fit the definition?
    Mar 17 02:36 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Renewed Euro Crisis, Rising Inflation To Push Precious Metals Higher [View article]
    BTW - I failed to mention the developing situation in Cyprus as another possible catalyst from Europe, but, this might prove to be even more important than elections in Italy over the very near-term.
    Mar 17 11:33 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are Record Outflows From The SPDR Gold ETF Cause For Concern? [View article]
    I can't really comment on something like that in this forum, but, please feel free to send me a private message if you'd like (click on Send Message under my photo at the top of the page).
    Feb 28 05:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are Record Outflows From The SPDR Gold ETF Cause For Concern? [View article]
    Gas prices have always been included in the CPI. What I noted above was that the recent rise in gasoline prices has not yet been reflected in the inflation data. Next month it will be.
    Feb 28 04:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
103 Comments
179 Likes