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Tim McPartland

 
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  • I Hope The Exit Doors Are Wide Enough [View article]
    Thanks for your simple straightforward approach--some of us require it to understand these complex instruments.
    Jan 22, 2015. 09:43 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Get Familiar With Preferred Stocks? [View article]
    Or better yet if we are looking at 'what ifs' one investing in preferreds stocks in 2008/2009 would have reaped up to a 400% profit from very solid securities. There were any number (over 100 for sure) of $25 par issues that traded down to $5-$10 during the panic and now trade at par or above. Of course most people were too fearful to touch them.
    Jan 8, 2015. 05:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Farm Land Values Begin To Tumble [View instapost]
    Anarchist - I have not published my personal holdings for quite a long time.

    We hold mostly similar to our 2014/2015 Short/Medium Duration Income Porfolio plus we have a number of REITs and BDS's added in.

    http://bit.ly/1HK71tG

    We are hoping to be able to write here on Seeking Alpha soon.
    Jan 6, 2015. 11:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Positioning My Income Portfolio For 2015 [View article]
    Bargain Hunter - have to agree with others above. You are making some dicey moves. I might tip toe into a couple oils but not full balls in as you have done--way early for that I believe---although I don't have a problem with CVRR or NTI (even though they are in fact variable rate MLP's--over time that works ok).

    Also seems like instead of your income account this is more your 'trading account'. Booking a profit on IRT seems like it was a short term 'trade'. You need to define your goal and work toward it and something like IRT would be a good long term hold as part of a diversified holding--forget that you think that REITs will get hit sometime (who knows when?). They got slammed last year, but are now back stronger than ever.

    Good luck in your endeavors.
    Jan 6, 2015. 11:08 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Silly Rabbit: Interest Rates Aren't Smashing Down REIT Profits [View article]
    Hi Brad--hope your New Year has started well.

    By now I hope that investors have realized that the rise in rates when/if it comes is more typically favorable to stock returns than it is negative (although the mainstreet media works hard to try to scare the individual investor). A number of studies have shown that (but I don't have the links handy).

    You really hit the nail on the head when you simply said "focus on REIT fundamentals". Obviously we could apply this simple advice to any sector. While we will have our 'moments' in investing such as 2008-2009 the long term focus on fundamentals will eventually win out if reasonably applied.

    Keep up the good work (so I don't have to do it myself).

    Tim
    Jan 5, 2015. 12:40 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Farm Land Values Begin To Tumble [View instapost]
    Hi Anarchist--assuming they are going to buy investment grade preferreds ETF's are as good a way as any. As you maybe know we publish a 'static' investment grade portfolio

    http://bit.ly/1I4sk7I

    which we measure against iShares Preferred Stock ETF (ticker:PFF) which is not all investment grade, that has outperformed a pure investment grade portfolio. It makes us believe that preferred stock picking of just investment grade issues is likely a futile effort. Personally we would not be getting carried away with a bunch of perpetual preferreds now--instead opting for exchange traded debt issues with durations of 10 years or less.
    Jan 2, 2015. 09:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • CareTust Shines Like A Small-Cap Diamond In The Rough [View article]
    Brad--thanks for touching on this one. Looks like one of my type of REIT (small) so will do further due diligence for possible purchase.

    Have a good holiday.
    Dec 24, 2014. 12:46 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Are Lower Tax Preferred Stock Dividends Really A Better Deal? [View article]
    Thanks for the article Doug of a very much talked about topic.
    Dec 2, 2014. 10:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hi-Crush Partners In A Low Oil-Price Environment [View article]
    Casey thanks for the article.

    My biggest concern with frac sand is there is no technical insulation whatsoever in the production of sand. The biggest insulation for a producer is securing the necessary permitting to mine, but production is being added monthly in Wisconsin and Minnesota, as well as around the country and we will reach the point of overproduction before long (a couple years). Contracts can insulate you for a while, but as they expire and simultaneously production rises we are going to see falling prices and very tight margins.

    Bottom line is for the long term position I have to pass of Hi Crush.
    Nov 26, 2014. 11:50 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Is Mr. Market Raining On This Small-Cap Farming REIT? [View article]
    Hi Brad---BMO should do a little fact checking as their land valuations are in fact 'mangement estimates', which they have stated in all of their filings etc. This is one of the problems I have had with this since day 1. .

    This from their latest prospectus for common shares.

    We did not obtain a fairness opinion in connection with the FP Land Merger. The amount of consideration paid by us to Pittman Hough Farms, in which Paul A. Pittman has a 75% controlling interest, in the FP Land Merger was based upon Messrs. Pittman and Fabbri's estimates of the fair market values of the properties that comprised our portfolio upon the completion of our initial public offering and the outstanding indebtedness of our Predecessor. The estimates of the properties' fair market values were based on various factors, including assessments of comparable farmland in each of the markets in which the properties are located and publicly available records of farmland sales.

    Since a couple days ago I have done more digging trying to verify statements made by management etc---I have found some very interesting information, but none that I would write about in public until I could do 'in person' due diligence in Nebraska and Illinois--and the odds of that happening are maybe only 25%.

    Best regards and have a happy and restful Thanksgiving.
    Nov 26, 2014. 02:21 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Is Mr. Market Raining On This Small-Cap Farming REIT? [View article]
    tuliptown--I believe you are generally correct. I was doing some work for a guy who had a 80 acre parcel of decent land he was renting out for $100--just because the guy 'took good care of the land'.

    My point is really that for each acre leased the claim is very top of the rent possibilities--if you are renting for $400 there is no money to be made and likely rents are coming down (assuming no crop failure in South America).
    Nov 23, 2014. 07:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Is Mr. Market Raining On This Small-Cap Farming REIT? [View article]
    Hi Brad--thanks for the thought provoking article---you certainly have brought out lots of opinions on this one.

    I will say you have caused me to spend a couple hours researching further to see if I missed something on this one.

    It may be helpful to readers to read the letter from the company to the SEC prior to the IPO.

    http://1.usa.gov/11Hkdzj

    Additionally many of the questions arise from the rents they are claiming to be garnered on their land. They are not reasonable--since I work in this area I had to dig further. The USDA publishes a county by county (nationwide) average rents spreadsheet--with the most recent one being published in September and shows dry land prices and irrigated acres. Whiles averages of anything don't in and of themselves mean much, they are an indication that the claimed rents may be very much out of line. This is a huge file.

    http://1.usa.gov/11Hkdzl

    Additionally the extension services of the Iowa and Illinois publish detailed data on the cost of a crop (inputs) with various assumed results. Iowa has just published theirs and the results are interesting--even with a decent crop corn has been quite a loser (without forward selling) this year.

    http://bit.ly/11HkdPz

    Additionally where they really lost me was they had previously made a claim that their land in Nebraska (Butler County) was worth 13,000/acre. We had to check that out since I believe Iowa or Illinois land may have hit that area, I don't believe Butler county ever remotely reached this level. I checked about 50 parcels from all over the county at the assessors office (online). The highest value that I found was around 6,000/acre (this was a double from 5 years previous--and included dry ground and irrigated). Now working in this area daily I know assessor values can be way off--but typically they are not more than 5-10% off on residential and ag lands (commercial is a different story as I am sure you know better than I), except when values are spiking or dropping like a rock--they lag these big moves. These value gains compare well to those thoughout the midwest. Now a $13,000 claim makes me want to jump in the car and drive to Butler County (a 6-7 hour drive) to inspect files and parcels first hand. Just too much 'puffed up' talk with this one. Here is the Butler County GIS site where one can survey the county and values.

    http://bit.ly/11HkdPD#

    BUT I do agree that farmland bought right is a super VERY long term investment.

    Take care and keep up the good work.
    Nov 22, 2014. 01:21 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Our Favorite Conservative Preferred Stock - Tortoise Energy Infrastructure [View article]
    Larry--not elusive at all. I have a regular 40-60 hour a week job and my website is something I do 'as a hobby'.
    Nov 21, 2014. 02:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Our Favorite Conservative Preferred Stock - Tortoise Energy Infrastructure [View article]
    Hi Larry--sorry -- time is something I don't have so have not been around seeking alpha.

    I think by now you know I have moved away from many perpetual preferreds into securities with shorter durations--I plan to stay with that course. I do own some junkier issues like LTS-A--but I think it is actually a relatively safe issue.

    I will NEVER sell TYG-B--it is important to my accounts as I was buying it in truckloads when it was in the lower $8's--a nice current yield at that time and agreat YTM, but most of all I want the AA rating.
    Nov 21, 2014. 02:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Is Mr. Market Raining On This Small-Cap Farming REIT? [View article]
    Brad--I think you drank the kool-aid on this one--although I do believe that over the VERY long term (maybe 10-20 years) farmland is a buy. Certainly the rents that have been charged recently are not sustainable under current commodity pricing--the inputs (seed, nitrogen etc) are simply too high today to pay rents that they are claiming. Today cash corn at our local elevator is 3.39/bushel. That being said any farmer of size sold 50% of the current crop at much higher prices, but selling the futures--whether it be oil or corn works for a year, but if crop prices stay low this option goes away to a large degree. Prices will be a function of global crop conditions--so we will see what happens in Brazil this winter.

    I am surprised they are paying the dividend they are paying given their FFO or AFFO (on a fully diluted basis). Doesn't really make sense in the face of low crop prices.

    It is likely that no matter the price I couldn't buy shares of this company--the officers seem like 'operators' to me (as in financial operators)--their commentary doesn't strike me as people that know much about farming.

    It will be fun to watch this play out in the years ahead.
    Nov 21, 2014. 01:16 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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239 Comments
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