Google's awareness of its mobile search weakness is not the issue.
On PCs, Windows is the dominant OS and Microsoft can not ship Windows 7 with Bing as the default search engine for antitrust reasons. Therefore Google can keep the strong market share it has built up, as competitors are not significantly better for most users.
In North America and Europe there are currently 4 mobile OS with significant share: Symbian, Blackberry, iOS (iPhone, iPod Touch, iPad) and Android. Only on Android is Google almost certain to be the default - all the others will choose their search engine, and one of the factors will be revenue sharing. The further complication is that many of the carriers will also get to choose how cellphones are set up and they too will want to share.
This naturally means that mobile search engines other than Google will be chosen and Google's mobile search revenue will have a smaller profit margin.
Google's biggest search weakness is from cellphones. Despite the success of Android, there are too many players like Microsoft and RIM who will or can choose alternatives. All Apple needs to do is have Steve Jobs say that Bing is better and Google loses another market (Microsoft would be happy to pay at least as many marketing dollars for that endorsement). In many cases there's already an app for finding the closest outlet for anything you buy regularly and using an app is more convenient.
Google can continue to grow its advertising with businesses like YouTube but its dominance of search is tied to the PC market. For more details see my article lowendmac.com/nash/10t...
Which Cellular Providers Are Fighting for Second Place? [View article]
Verizon is having to build out the LTE network faster than originally planned. With Average Revenue Per User and net new users less than those for AT&T, Verizon seems to have recognized that the days of CDMA are over and that it has to transition as quickly as possible to supporting the future. This will be expensive and the risk is that the transition will only be in time for 4G networks to have little value add as all we pay for is a data download plan.
As Verizon is in the middle of this transition it is difficult to see why Apple would support CDMA with a new iPhone, especially when there are other carriers like China Mobile which could offer more sales for a non GSM iPhone.
Apple too is at the top in marketing, so why would it make the basic error of launching on Verizon with a variant of a 6 month old iPhone 4? Apple knows how fast the Android world is reacting and a move like this would be setting up the iPhone for disappointing sales, as they would be compared to analysts' estimates.
Verizon supporting the iPad though is a more interesting possibility. Verizon and Apple is looked at in more detail in my article lowendmac.com/nash/10t...
Apple iPhone to Verizon Drumbeat Picks Up Steam [View article]
Pegatron Technology will be listed on the Taiwan stock exchange on June 24, which may be why these rumors are surfacing especially as Pegatron had lost orders from Asustek to Quanta and Foxconn.
With the huge demand for iPhone 4, Apple will concentrate on keeping the GSM market supplied. So Verizon is very unlikely to get an iPhone before its LTE network is sufficiently widespread to take the standard GSM iPhone. As Telus and Bell, CDMA carriers in Canada, and KT in Korea already support the standard iPhone why would Apple build a special model for Verizon? For a more detailed look at why not, see my article lowendmac.com/nash/10t...
Music Is Still 90% of Apple’s iTunes Business [View article]
Apps for iPhone iPod Touch and iPad, which you fail to mention, will overtake music revenue within the next few years. eBooks are interesting too but both Amazon and Google will take a slice of the market and slow Apple's growth there.
More Price Support in Apple's Future [View article]
If Apple announces an iPhone for a non GSM carrier, it is more likely to be on China Mobile with over 500 million subscribers than Verizon. On China Mobile, Apple could supply an iPhone which runs on their 2G EDGE network. Verizon will probably have to wait until its 4G LTE network is widely available and supports the standard Apple iPhone.
How many people will buy an iPad and a netbook? While the iPad will take time to approach netbook sales levels, one reason is that netbooks are cheaper laptops and that is an already established market.
The iPad has already sold 1 million over roughly 7 weeks (including the 3 weeks pre-order period). As delivery dates are already being pushed back into June in the UK and other countries, the iPad should sell 2-3 million this quarter. With expansion into other countries next quarter and the growth in the number of apps tailored for the iPad and the Christmas quarter, 10 million sales looks possible for 2010 - a year earlier than AMD is suggesting. Of course AMD and Intel will lose sales from that.
Android phones have yet to show they can compete successfully when they sell on the same carriers as iPhone. As Apple only seems to be interested in the GSM market, which is much larger than the CDMA market, Android should be able to flourish on Verizon and Sprint until they can support the standard GSM iPhone. This naturally means Verizon is unlikely to see the iPhone soon - for a more detailed discussion see my article lowendmac.com/nash/09t...
How Long Has a Continental-United Merger Been in the Works? [View article]
"By the end of 2009, United had removed all (roughly 100) of its older Boeing 737 planes, while Continental has firm commitments to purchase 54 new 737s through 2016. Therefore, the combined entity would have to purchase only one block of 737s, which would dramatically reduce capital spending in the years to come since the carriers would not duplicate the same order."
According to Airbus.com, United has 23 A319s, 19 A320s and 25 A350-900s on order - the A350s were ordered in March, not long after Boeing announced an order for 25 787s. So United is committed to at least as much capital expenditure, but largely with Airbus, as it already operates 152 319/320s.
Flash works well on one platform - Windows. While that accounted for nearly all web access, putting less effort into OS X and Linux was understandable. The iPhone however has been out for nearly 3 years and in that time, all Adobe has made available for cellphones is Flash Lite and beta of Flash. With all the delay on cellphones and the quality of Flash on OS X and the delay in bringing the Creative Suite to OS X (where it earns approx. 50% of its profits), does Adobe really expect Apple to wait its turn?
A major issue here is the slowness of Adobe, in realising that mobile is a new game and that Apple is the frontrunner.
Apple, Google vs. The Telecom Giants [View article]
In Q1 AT&T gained 1.9 million subscribers, 900,000 through the iPhone as it sold 2.7 million of them. Average Revenue Per User was up again (another iPhone effect). Post-paid churn rates were down to Verizon levels as users want their iPhones more than they want Verizon's network. Wireless service revenue was up 10.3%, wireless data up 29.8%.
Apple launched the iPad exclusively on AT&T, as with 20,000 WiFi hotspots AT&T is the best option at this time.
When Will Apple Overtake Microsoft? [View article]
Apple will almost certainly pass Microsoft in revenue this quarter. Apart from $1bn+ in iPad revenue, the MacBook Pro range has been refreshed for the first time in nearly a year, which will drive laptop revenue up. If the new iPhone is widely available in June, sales of handsets should be up too.
As I wrote in January in 'Apple will become bigger than Microsoft in 2010', bit.ly/7pyzen it will be passing Microsoft within six months. Obviously some of the revenue predictions in that article were out, but the trend line was clear.
Apple vs. Adobe Flash War: Winners and Losers [View article]
Until Flash works well on the vast majority of smartphones, it is at risk. All Adobe has managed to produce since the iPhone launched, nearly 3 years ago, is beta versions and Flash Lite and given its track record for quality on systems other than Windows, the chance of Flash becoming an interoperable standard is not good.
There is no good reason why Apple shouldn't be the largest US company by market cap. Looking at the results for the last quarter, the worst figures were for the iPod - a 1% decline in units and 12% YOY revenue growth.
This quarter will see the iPad adding to growth ($1bn sales ?) along with refreshed iPhones and MacBook Pros adding to the revenue. Apple should certainly overtake Microsoft (see my January article lowendmac.com/nash/10t... ).
The real question is what happens when more and more corporates build their mobile computing strategy around the iPhone and iPad?
Google Is Not Over [View article]
On PCs, Windows is the dominant OS and Microsoft can not ship Windows 7 with Bing as the default search engine for antitrust reasons. Therefore Google can keep the strong market share it has built up, as competitors are not significantly better for most users.
In North America and Europe there are currently 4 mobile OS with significant share: Symbian, Blackberry, iOS (iPhone, iPod Touch, iPad) and Android. Only on Android is Google almost certain to be the default - all the others will choose their search engine, and one of the factors will be revenue sharing. The further complication is that many of the carriers will also get to choose how cellphones are set up and they too will want to share.
This naturally means that mobile search engines other than Google will be chosen and Google's mobile search revenue will have a smaller profit margin.
Google Is Not Over [View article]
Google can continue to grow its advertising with businesses like YouTube but its dominance of search is tied to the PC market. For more details see my article lowendmac.com/nash/10t...
Data Showing Android Pushing Past Apple Doesn't Include iPhone 4 [View article]
Apple's Quarter end was June 26 so the first 1.7million iPhone 4s were sold in 3 days not a week.
Which Cellular Providers Are Fighting for Second Place? [View article]
As Verizon is in the middle of this transition it is difficult to see why Apple would support CDMA with a new iPhone, especially when there are other carriers like China Mobile which could offer more sales for a non GSM iPhone.
Apple too is at the top in marketing, so why would it make the basic error of launching on Verizon with a variant of a 6 month old iPhone 4? Apple knows how fast the Android world is reacting and a move like this would be setting up the iPhone for disappointing sales, as they would be compared to analysts' estimates.
Verizon supporting the iPad though is a more interesting possibility. Verizon and Apple is looked at in more detail in my article lowendmac.com/nash/10t...
Apple iPhone to Verizon Drumbeat Picks Up Steam [View article]
With the huge demand for iPhone 4, Apple will concentrate on keeping the GSM market supplied. So Verizon is very unlikely to get an iPhone before its LTE network is sufficiently widespread to take the standard GSM iPhone. As Telus and Bell, CDMA carriers in Canada, and KT in Korea already support the standard iPhone why would Apple build a special model for Verizon? For a more detailed look at why not, see my article lowendmac.com/nash/10t...
Music Is Still 90% of Apple’s iTunes Business [View article]
More Price Support in Apple's Future [View article]
For more detail on Has Verizon lost its iPhone gamble, see my article lowendmac.com/nash/10t...
Reality Check: 'iPad Won’t Affect Netbook Sales' [View article]
The iPad has already sold 1 million over roughly 7 weeks (including the 3 weeks pre-order period). As delivery dates are already being pushed back into June in the UK and other countries, the iPad should sell 2-3 million this quarter. With expansion into other countries next quarter and the growth in the number of apps tailored for the iPad and the Christmas quarter, 10 million sales looks possible for 2010 - a year earlier than AMD is suggesting. Of course AMD and Intel will lose sales from that.
Can Google Swallow Apple? [View article]
How Long Has a Continental-United Merger Been in the Works? [View article]
According to Airbus.com, United has 23 A319s, 19 A320s and 25 A350-900s on order - the A350s were ordered in March, not long after Boeing announced an order for 25 787s. So United is committed to at least as much capital expenditure, but largely with Airbus, as it already operates 152 319/320s.
Adobe Strikes Back [View article]
Flash works well on one platform - Windows. While that accounted for nearly all web access, putting less effort into OS X and Linux was understandable. The iPhone however has been out for nearly 3 years and in that time, all Adobe has made available for cellphones is Flash Lite and beta of Flash. With all the delay on cellphones and the quality of Flash on OS X and the delay in bringing the Creative Suite to OS X (where it earns approx. 50% of its profits), does Adobe really expect Apple to wait its turn?
A major issue here is the slowness of Adobe, in realising that mobile is a new game and that Apple is the frontrunner.
Apple, Google vs. The Telecom Giants [View article]
Apple launched the iPad exclusively on AT&T, as with 20,000 WiFi hotspots AT&T is the best option at this time.
More a marriage of convenience than of hell.
When Will Apple Overtake Microsoft? [View article]
As I wrote in January in 'Apple will become bigger than Microsoft in 2010', bit.ly/7pyzen it will be passing Microsoft within six months. Obviously some of the revenue predictions in that article were out, but the trend line was clear.
Now to see if Apple will sell 100 million OS X machines in 2010 see lowendmac.com/nash/10t...
Apple vs. Adobe Flash War: Winners and Losers [View article]
Apple to $500 [View article]
This quarter will see the iPad adding to growth ($1bn sales ?) along with refreshed iPhones and MacBook Pros adding to the revenue. Apple should certainly overtake Microsoft (see my January article lowendmac.com/nash/10t... ).
The real question is what happens when more and more corporates build their mobile computing strategy around the iPhone and iPad?