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Tim Nash

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  • Intel Making Apple's ARM Chips Will Leave Samsung Behind [View article]
    There are costs involved in changing any production line. If you want to suggest that Intel is incapable of making those changes and making a profit, then we disagree.
    Jan 3 07:06 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel Making Apple's ARM Chips Will Leave Samsung Behind [View article]

    Also, Intel has only a few potential partners for large volumes of ARM chips:

    1) Nokia: recovering but still financially weak and has limited current need for fast chips - most of its volume is still low priced, Symbian based feature phones.
    2) Samsung: has its own foundries and will look to copy the Intel process asap and take the production back in house.
    3) Apple: financially strong and needs fast reliable chips to keep its design edge.

    I believe the Intel board has recognised the need for change and that a new CEO will be better able to explore and implement a new relationship with Apple.
    Jan 3 03:03 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel Making Apple's ARM Chips Will Leave Samsung Behind [View article]
    Thanks. I expect Apple to dual source its ARM chips between Intel 22nm and TSMC 20nm in 2013. This will give Intel the time to adjust to a new working relationship with Apple and to complete the move to 14nm and maximise the profit from x86 on the new line.
    Jan 3 02:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel Making Apple's ARM Chips Will Leave Samsung Behind [View article]
    >Why would Intel want to give ARM chips the advantage that it's Atom chips will possesses by the end of 2013?

    Intel isn't getting any significant smartphone design wins with Atom. At first, Apple is likely to use 14nm for ARM chips for the iPhone. If the only way competitors can have equivalent performance on their top end smartphones is by using Atom, Intel will start getting design wins.
    Jan 2 04:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel Making Apple's ARM Chips Will Leave Samsung Behind [View article]
    I understand that Imagination paid $60m for the MIPS business and 82 patents and license rights to nearly 500 patents. Android is supported on MIPS and Imagination licenses in a similar way to ARM Holdings, so the buy doesn't seem too much of a stretch if Imagination wants to try for Android market share. Imagination made over $40m last quarter.
    Jan 2 03:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel Making Apple's ARM Chips Will Leave Samsung Behind [View article]
    Thanks for the kind words. I expect discussions to start when the new CEO's appointment is announced, even if Paul Otellini is still officially in place. The new CEO will want to know what are the parameters of a deal with Apple.
    Jan 2 02:55 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel Making Apple's ARM Chips Will Leave Samsung Behind [View article]
    If Intel's board were happy with the way things are going, Paul Otellini would have been allowed to stay until 65 - Intel's normal retirement age. So the new CEO will look to change and pride won't come into it. The main question is, can Apple and Intel agree on a price for ARM chips which reflects the iPhone jumping to a generation ahead of competitors?
    Jan 2 02:27 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel Making Apple's ARM Chips Will Leave Samsung Behind [View article]
    Apple is moving from Samsung - see today's reports of TSMC starting A6X sample production in March. Paul Otellini is on his way out and by the time the new CEO takes over, Intel will know how successful Windows 8 on tablets is.
    Jan 2 12:29 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Maybe the 787 Isn’t Boeing’s Biggest Problem [View article]
    According to Boeing's website, 847 (not 863) 787s are on order and there have been a net of 4 cancellations this year. How profitable these orders will be depends, in part, on what penalties for late delivery are built into the customer contracts.

    The upside for Boeing is the likely award of the tanker contract - it's the cheapest way the US Government can keep Boeing profitable. This is probably the reason for the delay of the WTO report as it would be embarassing for that report to show Boeing has received illegal R&D subsidies and then award it the tanker contract.
    Sep 4 08:44 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Google Is Not Over [View article]
    Google's awareness of its mobile search weakness is not the issue.

    On PCs, Windows is the dominant OS and Microsoft can not ship Windows 7 with Bing as the default search engine for antitrust reasons. Therefore Google can keep the strong market share it has built up, as competitors are not significantly better for most users.

    In North America and Europe there are currently 4 mobile OS with significant share: Symbian, Blackberry, iOS (iPhone, iPod Touch, iPad) and Android. Only on Android is Google almost certain to be the default - all the others will choose their search engine, and one of the factors will be revenue sharing. The further complication is that many of the carriers will also get to choose how cellphones are set up and they too will want to share.

    This naturally means that mobile search engines other than Google will be chosen and Google's mobile search revenue will have a smaller profit margin.
    Aug 11 06:17 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Google Is Not Over [View article]
    Google's biggest search weakness is from cellphones. Despite the success of Android, there are too many players like Microsoft and RIM who will or can choose alternatives. All Apple needs to do is have Steve Jobs say that Bing is better and Google loses another market (Microsoft would be happy to pay at least as many marketing dollars for that endorsement). In many cases there's already an app for finding the closest outlet for anything you buy regularly and using an app is more convenient.

    Google can continue to grow its advertising with businesses like YouTube but its dominance of search is tied to the PC market. For more details see my article
    Aug 9 03:18 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Data Showing Android Pushing Past Apple Doesn't Include iPhone 4 [View article]
    'In other words, this data only includes one week of iPhone 4 sales'.

    Apple's Quarter end was June 26 so the first 1.7million iPhone 4s were sold in 3 days not a week.
    Aug 3 10:47 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Which Cellular Providers Are Fighting for Second Place? [View article]
    Verizon is having to build out the LTE network faster than originally planned. With Average Revenue Per User and net new users less than those for AT&T, Verizon seems to have recognized that the days of CDMA are over and that it has to transition as quickly as possible to supporting the future. This will be expensive and the risk is that the transition will only be in time for 4G networks to have little value add as all we pay for is a data download plan.

    As Verizon is in the middle of this transition it is difficult to see why Apple would support CDMA with a new iPhone, especially when there are other carriers like China Mobile which could offer more sales for a non GSM iPhone.

    Apple too is at the top in marketing, so why would it make the basic error of launching on Verizon with a variant of a 6 month old iPhone 4? Apple knows how fast the Android world is reacting and a move like this would be setting up the iPhone for disappointing sales, as they would be compared to analysts' estimates.

    Verizon supporting the iPad though is a more interesting possibility. Verizon and Apple is looked at in more detail in my article
    Jul 1 03:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple iPhone to Verizon Drumbeat Picks Up Steam [View article]
    Pegatron Technology will be listed on the Taiwan stock exchange on June 24, which may be why these rumors are surfacing especially as Pegatron had lost orders from Asustek to Quanta and Foxconn.

    With the huge demand for iPhone 4, Apple will concentrate on keeping the GSM market supplied. So Verizon is very unlikely to get an iPhone before its LTE network is sufficiently widespread to take the standard GSM iPhone. As Telus and Bell, CDMA carriers in Canada, and KT in Korea already support the standard iPhone why would Apple build a special model for Verizon? For a more detailed look at why not, see my article
    Jun 18 12:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Music Is Still 90% of Apple’s iTunes Business [View article]
    Apps for iPhone iPod Touch and iPad, which you fail to mention, will overtake music revenue within the next few years. eBooks are interesting too but both Amazon and Google will take a slice of the market and slow Apple's growth there.
    Jun 1 11:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment